Конфликт на Украине и стратегическое преображение арктической политики США: логика “исторического шанса”

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The article explores nuances of strategic transformation of the American Arctic policy after the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Russia’s Special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine has taken competition in the Arctic region to a new level. The paper introduces a new term “post-February” Arctic to describe the dramatic changes in the polar region after the beginning of the Ukrainian events on February 24, 2022. It shows that these events were almost unanimously perceived by Western analysts and public politicians as a “moment of strategic opportunity” to revise the international political situation in the Far North. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict critically changed the U.S. Arctic policy. The conceptual framework, within which the problems of “post-February” American polar policy are investigated, is the “offshore balancing” theory. The launch of the Russian SMO in Ukraine has led to strengthening the anti-Russian orientation of the U.S. Arctic policy. Facing a long military confrontation, Washington is trying to increase pressure in such areas critical to Russia as the Far North. However, the “post-February” U.S. Arctic policy is not so much the realization of political maximalism, but rather a reanimation and adjustment of Washington’s ambitions in accordance with the opportunities that emerged after February 24, 2022. The authors prove that despite loud calls to punish Russia for starting the Special military operation in Ukraine, the American response in this direction is restrained. The anti-Russian Arctic initiatives by various American public policy actors have a delayed rather than urgent effect. A quite moderate polar policy of the United States is explained by the fact that Washington is well aware of the limits of its capabilities in the Arctic. Its behavior throughout the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict illustrates the essence of the “offshore balancing” policy like nothing else.