تأثير مؤشرات الانضباط المالي في النمو الاقتصادي في العراق: دراسة قياسية باستخدام انموذج ARDL للمدة (2004–2020)

Abstract

Economic growth is one of the most important goals that countries around the world seek to achieve, and this study measures and analyzes the impact of fiscal discipline on economic growth during the period (2004-2020) using the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration (ARDL) model. Furthermore, The results showed that the economic growth in Iraq has an inverse relationship with the indicators of financial discipline (deficit or surplus, public debt, public expenditure) except for the public revenue indicator, where it is linked with a direct relationship as it appears that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, that is, there is a joint integration between the variables the focus of the study according to the border test (bounds test) through the error correction vector coefficient, as (1.03) of short-term errors are automatically corrected within a period of one year in order to reach equilibrium in the long term.