ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ ОСНОВИ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ В СИСТЕМІ НАЦІОНАЛЬНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ: КЛАСИФІКАЦІЯ, МЕТОДИ, ЗВ’ЯЗОК З ІНШИМИ НАУКАМИ

Abstract

Problem setting. In the conditions of the development of the information society and the active use of information technologies (IT) in all spheres of human activity, issues of forecasting in the system of national security (SNS) are particularly relevant, as there are threats and challenges that need to be countered. It is through the use of information technology forecasting that the latest challenges and threats to national security can be manifested. To combine classical forecasting technologies with modern information technologies, and therefore, to increase efficiency in the field of public administration of national security is an urgent task in this area. Recent research and publications analysis Among the authors who are investigating the problems of forecasting and prediction, one can distinguish K.O.Vashchenko, S.O.Teleshun, O.L.Evmeshkina, N.F.Rzhevsky, A.M.Stelmashchuk, Z.E.Shershnev and others. Forecasting in the system of national security was considered in the works of N.S.Sitnik, O.Resnikov, V.Yu. Tsyukalo, R.R. Marutyan, V.M. Sadovsky, A.V. Datsyuk. The paper objective. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to develop the classification of IT prediction in the NSS system, as well as to find out the relationship of prediction with other sciences. The paper main body Forecasting is the process of predicting the future state of an object or phenomenon on the basis of analysis of its past and present, systematically evaluating the information on qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the development of the chosen subject or phenomenon in the long run. Generally, intuitive and formalized prediction methods are distinguished. Intuitive forecasting methods are used in the absence of taking into account the influence of many factors due to the complexity of the prediction object, and in this case the emphasis is placed on the study of expert opinion on the behavior of the prediction object. Formalized forecasting methods are based on analytical networks that reflect both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The group of formalized methods includes methods of extrapolation and modeling. By studying the relationship between forecasting and state strategic plannin g, it is important to note that among the varieties of forecasting, strategic forecasting is also highlighted, the content of which is to develop long-term and medium-term forecasts. It is noted that the forecasts associated with the state strategic planning need to be developed in an interconnected set, forming a holistic system. It is indicated that such a system should be multilevel, integrated by a complex of forecasts, since the system of strategic documents of the state strategic planning has a hierarchical structure and interconnectedness. The main objects of strategic forecasting in the system of national security (SNS) are: the foreign policy sphere, the sphere of state security, the military sphere and the sphere of security of the state border of Ukraine, the internal political sphere, the economic sphere, the social and humanitarian sphere, the scientific and technological sphere, the sphere civil protection, environmental sphere, information sphere. It is emphasized that the main classes of forecasting methods used in the strategic planning of national security are extrapolation methods; expert methods; modeling methods with various classification modeling groups. Conclusions of the research. Interdependence and complementarity of classical and modern information technologies of forecasting are revealed; emphasized the importance of IT forecasting in the National Security Service; the classification of IT forecasting in the National Security Service is proposed. The prospects for further research are theoretical evaluation of new IT predictions in general and a detailed analysis of practice and the possible new use of modern IT prediction in the components of national security in Ukraine in particular.