РЕГРЕССИОННЫЕ МОДЕЛИ ОЦЕНКИ ВЛИЯНИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ НА ОБЪЕМЫ УСЛУГ В СФЕРЕ ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫХ И КОММУНИКАЦИОННЫХ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ

Abstract

The paper highlights the results of a regression model contest organized using the computing technology and presents the mathematical models of the impact of economic indicators (the cost of exported crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, direct investment abroad and to Russia, the volume of GDP) on the amount of exports and imports of telecommunications, computer and information services (ICT). The choice of such output indicators in the model is stipulated by a significant growth of the ICT world market over the past decades. Besides, the relative growth of telecommunications, computer and information services is much more dynamic compared to services in the conventional spheres such as transportation, construction, and goods processing. Another important reason for choosing these particular indicators is a high level of participation of IT enterprises in the ICT services export. According to some estimates, about 2,000 firms in the in-dustry are involved. In other words, more than 60% of ICT enterprises in Russia are exporting their services to foreign countries, the most countries-importers of ICT services from Russia being the European countries and the United States. The amount of ICT services, as follows from the formal and meaningful analysis of the constructed models, is more than 50% provided by the level of de-velopment of the country's economy, in which GDP is the main indicator. At the same time, the dynamics of both export and import of telecommunications, computer and information services is also significantly influenced by the cost of exported raw materials: crude oil, oil products and natural gas. The models presented in the work can be effectively used for further detailed analysis of the influence of macroeconomic factors on the development of information and computer technologies and for solving a wide range of medium and short term forecasting problems.