МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ПРОЦЕССА ВОЗНИКНОВЕНИЯ ДЕСТРУКТИВНЫХ СОБЫТИЙ НА ТЕРРИТОРИЯХ РЕГИОНА С ВЫСОКИМ УРОВНЕМ ЗАНЯТОСТИ ПОЖАРНО-СПАСАТЕЛЬНЫХ ПОДРАЗДЕЛЕНИЙ

Abstract

Purpose. The main objectives of the article include the analysis of fire and rescue units activities and emergence process simulation of destructive events on the territories of the region with a high level of workload. The main principle of organizational design is to respond timely to any destructive event which has happened in the settlement, when it is sufficient to eliminate this event with a set of means and forces. In this regard, it is necessary to analyze the operational situation, simulate the conditions in which fire and rescue units operate, and then take into account the obtained results when making recommendations for fire and rescue units reorganization of towns and regions on the proposed territories. Methods. To achieve the objectives stated above applying mathematical and statistical models, the emergence process of events including fires, traffic accidents, emergencies has been described. Findings. The detailed analysis of the current operational situation on the studied territories with high engagement level of fire and rescue units has been carried out. Applying probabilistic-statistical modeling, it has been found that the emergence process of destructive events comply with Poisson’s distribution with the corresponding parameter. Research application field. The obtained results will make it possible to develop recommendations on reorganizing and improving fire protection of towns on the studied territories. Conclusions. In future, it is of interest to simulate the time characteristics of fire and rescue units’ operation in the region: to build an appropriate mathematical model, to study the employment time and arrival time of fire and rescue unit at the scene.