Методологические аспекты организации грузоперевозок железнодорожным транспортом в проектах развития Восточного полигона с учетом рисков инфраструктурных ограничений

Abstract

Purpose: To develop a methodology for the organization of freight transportation in the project of comprehensive modernization of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian Railway (Transsib) (Eastern polygon). Methods: The study is based on operational data of freight traffic on the railway infrastructure of the Eastern polygon of JSC "Russian Railways", their systematization and analysis. The method of in-depth analysis of structured data on the dependence of the performance indicators of the projected railway infrastructure and the passage of projected freight volumes, taking into account empty wagons, is used. Results: The methodology of regulation of the organization of freight rail transportation has been updated. The key problems, risks and restrictions of freight transportation in the Eastern polygon development project are classified. The results of statistical processing and data mining are presented, specifying the parameters of the forecast model for the growth of freight volumes and the increase in the capacity of the Eastern polygon. An algorithm has been developed for analyzing freight rail transportation in the projects of the development of the Eastern polygon, taking into account the risks of infrastructure restrictions. Practical significance: An assessment of the degree to which risks of infrastructure restrictions impact the effectiveness of the organizing freight traffic in the railway infrastructure development project is given.