Оценка экономических последствий наблюдаемых и ожидаемых климатических изменений с учетом долгосрочных прогнозных сценариев развития лесного сектора

Abstract

Economic consequences of climate change for the forest sector were calculated on the basis of data on changes in wood reserves as a result of an increase in the vegetation period, the sum of active temperatures and the total average annual increase for 1 ha of forest fund lands covered by forest vegetation, as well as the dynamics of the complex Nesterov’s fire danger index for weather conditions for the middle and end of the century for the 3rd, 4th and 5th classes of fire danger. Comparative analysis of the position of boundaries of natural and climatic zones at current time, middle and end of the century indicates a predictable shift of boundaries from south to north. The displacement of the boundaries of the natural and climatic zones will inevitably entail a change in the pedigree composition of the forest tracts in these territories. In particular, the gradual change of coniferous species for deciduous ones is predicted, which will directly affect the structure of forest resources. The economic consequences of predicted changes will be related both to the change in the species composition of forests and to the change in the average annual growth of wood. Due to the increase in the growing season and the sum of the active temperatures, an increase in the total average annual growth per hectare of forestland covered with vegetation, operational forests up to 2.9 m3/ha in the middle of the century and up to 3.2 m3/ha at the end of the century (at 2.6 m3/ha for the period of 2008-2014). Taking into account the cost of coniferous and deciduous wood by regions (in average prices in 2017), as well as the growth of productivity of plantations, by the middle of the century the value of forests in relation to 2014 will increase by 50.3%. By the end of the century, an increase up to 217% is expected from the level of 2014. By 2090, the boundaries of the southern taiga are expected to shift to the middle taiga. If current forest productivity continues, the valuation is expected to decline to 93.8% from the level of 2014. By the middle and the end of the century, the fire season is expected to increase, in aver-age for 4 days by 2050 and for 9 days by 2090. Due to this, the cost of extinguishing forest fires is likely to increase. On average, by regions, the increase in expenditures from 2016 to 2050 will be 2.3 million rubles per year, from 2051 to 2090 - 4.1 million rubles per year.