Вероятностная оценка нарушения герметичности сосудов давления при проведении риск-анализа технических устройств на опасных производственных объектах

Abstract

Thick-walled high-pressure vessels are a fairly common type of technical device as part of technological equipment operated at various hazardous production facilities. Reliability indicators of pressure vessels and their change during operation largely determine the indicators of failure-free operation of technological equipment as a whole, and potential failures of pressure vessels are subject to consideration when conducting a risk analysis of the operating equipment. The article discusses probabilistic and statistical approaches to solving the problem of predicting the resource of pressure vessels with fatigue failure of the neck at the design and operation stages. For the design stage, a technique is presented for modeling the processes of nucleation and development of a high-cycle fatigue crack, as well as a technique for determining the type of law and quantitative indicators of the distribution of the resource of a pressure vessel by the condition of loss tightness. For the operation stage, a method is presented for predicting the further growth of a diagnosed fatigue crack, as well as a method for determining the type of law and quantitative indicators of the distribution of the residual life of a pressure vessel by the condition of loss tightness.