Методические подходы к расчету показателей риска аварий при обосновании безопасности размещения магистральных газопроводов в пределах пятой подзоны приаэродромной территории

Abstract

The issues of safe allocation of hazardous production facilities, particularly trunk gas pipelines and gas supply facilities, as well as the application of a risk-oriented approach with the substantiation of such allocation, are currently at the top of the agenda. The article continues the earlier published studies dedicated to the review of quantitative and qualitative approaches to the risk analysis of the field, the determination of acceptable risk criteria with the substantiation of safe allocation of trunk gas pipelines and gas supply facilities within the fifth subzone of the aerodrome environs. The study provides general relations for the calculation of risk indices; the final calculated indices are the individual risks of fatalities among passengers and crewmembers as well as the annual number of fatalities on aircraft as a result of accidents at hazardous production facilities per 1 million persons of passenger traffic. The suggested approach takes into account several aviation-specific factors; i.e., aircraft flights at variable heights, complex configuration of take-off and landing, several available routes of approach to the airport (departure from the airport), and random allocation of hazardous production facilities adjacent to the aerodrome. A methodology and algorithm to use the introduced general relations have been provided, for which lists of input data and basic assumptions have been composed. The assumptions enable the conversion of general relations into simple algebraic expressions. Safety criteria and methodological approaches to determine their actual values, as suggested by the authors, enable linking the field of industrial safety and the field of aircraft flight safety and primarily aim at the reduction of uncertainties associated with problems of risk-oriented approach with the substantiation of allocation of trunk gas pipelines within the fifth subzone of the aerodrome environs. The vectors of further improvement of the methodology have been proposed.