Zonal Shift Research Articles

Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends

Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6 Earth system models. Models that overestimate past global warming trends, tend to estimate hotter and drier future Amazon conditions, driven by northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean, causing greater Amazon carbon loss. The proposed EC changes the mean CMIP6 Amazon climate-induced carbon loss estimate (excluding CO2 fertilisation and land-use change impacts) from −0.27 (−0.59–0.05) to −0.16 (−0.42–0.10) GtC year−1 at 4.4 °C warming level, reducing the variance by 34%. This study implies that climate-induced carbon loss in the Amazon rainforest by 2100 is less than thought and that past global temperature trends can be used to refine regional carbon cycle projections.

Features of subseasonal concurrent variations between subtropical and polar front jets and their association with temperature anomalies in China

Subseasonal variability of atmospheric circulation in mid-high latitudes is highly correlated to the upper-level jet streams, acting as a major contributor to the global or regional persistent climate anomalies. In this study, the features of subseasonal concurrent variations (SCVs) between East Asian Polar Front Jet (EAPJ) and Subtropical Jet (EASJ), and corresponding atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in China are investigated by using the observational data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. Results show that the main variability modes of the winter upper-level wind fields on subseasonal time scales are characterized by the meridional shift in opposite directions and out-of-phase variations in the intensity of the EASJ and EAPJ. These concurrent variations between the two jets have a significant oscillation cycle with a period of 10–25 days. Accompanied by the location (intensity) SCV of the two jets, the mid-latitude circulation systems show significant zonal shifts (local intensity changes), resulting in alternations of the atmospheric circulation between zonal and meridional types. The typical meridional circulation is characterized by a strong East Asian trough and its upstream strong high-pressure ridges. Meanwhile, gradient force between Siberian high and the Aleutian low is anomalously strong. As a result, the SCVs between two jets can cause widespread and persistent low temperature anomalies over China, usually lasting more than three days. In the case of the location SCV of the two jets, the low temperature anomalies concentrate in northern China, particularly in north of 40°N. In the case of the intensity SCV of the two jets, the low temperature anomalies occur in most parts of China, notably in south of 40°N. These results are helpful to improve the prediction of atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in East Asia during winter.

Interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in the Three River Source Region: Influences of SST and zonal shifts of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet

Summer precipitation in the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) of China is vital for the headwaters of the Yellow, Yangtze, and Lancang rivers and exhibits significant interdecadal variability. This study investigates the influence of the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) on TRSR rainfall. A strong correlation is found between TRSR summer precipitation and the Jet Zonal Position Index (JZPI) of the EAWJ from 1961 to 2019 (R = 0.619, p < 0.01). During periods when a positive JZPI indicates a westward shift in the EAWJ, enhanced water vapor anomalies, warmer air, and low-level convergence anomalies contribute to increased TRSR summer precipitation. Using empirical orthogonal function and regression analyses, this research identifies the influence of large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection (AEA) from the North Atlantic (NA). The interdecadal variability between the NA and central tropical Pacific (CTP) significantly affects TRSR precipitation. This influence is mediated through the AEA via a Rossby wave train extending eastward along the EAWJ, and another south of 45°N. Moreover, the NA–CTP Opposite Phase Index (OPI), which quantifies the difference between the summer mean sea surface temperatures of the NA and the CTP, is identified as a critical factor in modulating the strength of this teleconnection and influencing the zonal position of the EAWJ.摘要本研究探讨了年代际东亚西风急流的纬向移动对黄河, 长江和澜沧江源头—三江源区夏季降水的影响. 研究发现, 在1961–2019年间, 三江源区夏季降水量与急流纬向位置指数 (JZPI) 在年代际尺度上存在强正相关 (R=0.619, p<0.01) . 当JZPI呈正值, 也就是东亚西风急流向西移动时, 增强的水汽, 温暖的气流和低层辐合异常有助于三江源区夏季降水增加. 北大西洋与中太平洋之间的年代际变化对三江源区的降水有着显著的影响, 主要以北大西洋–欧亚遥相关 (AEA) 方式, 通过沿东亚西风急流向东延伸的罗斯贝波列, 以及45°N以南的另一波列来影响三江源区的降水. 进一步分析发现, 北大西洋与中太平洋反向相位指数 (OPI) 作为一个关键因素, 可量化北大西洋与中太平洋之间夏季平均海表温度的差异, 调控该遥相关的强度并影响急流的纬向位置.

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Growing Degree Days Agroclimatic Index for Viticulture over the Northern Mediterranean Basin

The agricultural sector faces significant challenges worldwide due to climate change. The pressure exerted by altered thermal conditions drives the zonal shift for various cultivations. This study aims to analyze and present the spatiotemporal evolution of the growing degree days (GDD) index in the northern Mediterranean Basin (NMB). More specifically, this research presents the multiyear analysis of the GDD index, which is focused on a high-value vine cultivation derived from the E-OBS dataset. The investigated time period spans from 1969 to 2018, and the performed analysis indicates a broad shift/expansion in areas with GDDs exceeding 2000 heat units. This is present in traditional winemaker countries such as France and Italy. Still, it is also evident that there is a high positive change in countries such as Serbia, Bulgaria, and other Balkans countries. The findings may be helpful in the strategic planning of the agricultural sector in these countries or on a vinery scale.

Impact of Ross Gyre on surface circulation in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica

The east limb of the Ross Gyre approaches the western Amundsen Sea, thereby exerting an influence on the surface circulation dynamics. This study investigates the impact of the zonal movement of the eastern boundary of the Ross Gyre on the surrounding surface geostrophic circulation in January. Specifically, a zonal shift of the eastern boundary of the Ross Gyre induces a substantial shelf-basin circulation within the Amundsen Sea. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the influence of the Ross Gyre on the exchange processes between the Amundsen Sea shelf and basin.

Linking Future Tropical Precipitation Changes to Zonally‐Asymmetric Large‐Scale Meridional Circulation

AbstractProjected tropical precipitation changes by the end of the century include increased net precipitation over the Pacific Ocean and drying over the Indian Ocean, prompting ongoing debate about the underlying mechanisms. Previous studies argued for the importance of the zonal circulation in the longitudinally dependent tropical precipitation response, as the meridional circulation is often defined and analyzed as the zonal mean. Here we show that the projected changes in the meridional circulation are highly longitudinally dependent, and explain the zonally dependent changes in net precipitation. Our analysis exposes a zonal shift in the ascending branch of the meridional circulation, associated with a strengthened net precipitation over the central Pacific and weakened precipitation in the Indo Pacific. The zonal circulation has minor influence on these projected tropical precipitation changes. These results point to the importance of monitoring the longitudinal changes in the meridional circulation for improving our preparedness for climate change impacts.

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

AbstractThe El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

Intensity change and zonal and meridional movements of the Aleutian Low and their associated broad-scale atmospheric-oceanic characteristics

The changes in the intensity and position of the Aleutian Low (AL) exert significant effects on the ocean-land-atmosphere interactive processes and climate over East Asia, the North Pacific, and North America. In this study, the interannual variations of the AL intensity, meridional shift, and zonal shift, as well as their associated dynamical processes are investigated. The results show that the intensity, meridional shift, and zonal shift of the AL are well characterized by the three leading EOF modes of sea level pressure over the North Pacific, and are strongly correlated with the Pacific-North American pattern, the West Pacific pattern, and the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern, respectively. The intensity variation of the winter AL seems to be closely associated with the ENSO-related atmosphere-ocean processes in the previous autumn, whereas the meridional shift is not associated any significant signal in the previous months, signifying a relatively higher predictability of the former. Besides, the eastward and westward movements of the AL show asymmetric features, attributed possibly to their asymmetric relationships with ENSO.

Where the winds clash: what is really triggering El Niño initiation?

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth’s strongest source of year-to-year climate variability, whose center of action, although being in the tropical Pacific, influences the global climate, impacting also security aspects. ENSO is commonly described as an irregular oscillation of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which produces an oscillation in the sea surface temperature between a warm (El Niño) and a cold (La Niña) phase induced by internal waves propagating along the equatorial wave-guide and generated by the convergence between high-frequency westerlies and the quasi-stationary easterlies. Here we show that internal, downwelling Rossby and Kelvin waves are regularly formed beneath the Easterly/Westerly Wind Convergence Zone (EWCZ). When the longitude of EWCZ is located east of 175oE, the Kelvin waves formed beneath the EWCZ reach the eastern Pacific boundary and determine an El Niño event and, the more the EWCZ elongates eastwards into the central Pacific, the more the observed El Niño event is classified as severe, suggesting that the position of the EWCZ is an important factor to trigger El Niño. Therefore, we study zonal shifts of EWCZ and show that the EWCZ and the deep atmospheric convection displace zonally in phase with each other and with the Southern Oscillation Index, indicating that the longitude of the clash between Easterlies and Westerlies determines the climate state of the Pacific and triggers the El Niño initiation.

Climate shifts orchestrated hominin interbreeding events across Eurasia.

When, where, and how often hominin interbreeding happened is largely unknown. We study the potential for Neanderthal-Denisovan admixture using species distribution models that integrate extensive fossil, archaeological, and genetic data with transient coupled general circulation model simulations of global climate and biomes. Our Pleistocene hindcast of past hominins' habitat suitability reveals pronounced climate-driven zonal shifts in the main overlap region of Denisovans and Neanderthals in central Eurasia. These shifts, which influenced the timing and intensity of potential interbreeding events, can be attributed to the response of climate and vegetation to past variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide and Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet volume. Therefore, glacial-interglacial climate swings likely played an important role in favoring gene flow between archaic humans.

ENSO complexity controlled by zonal shifts in the Walker circulation

ENSO complexity controlled by zonal shifts in the Walker circulation

Mechanisms underlying the epipelagic ecosystem response to ENSO in the equatorial Pacific ocean

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation is known to strongly impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. In particular, El Niño years are characterized, among other things, by a decrease in tuna catches in the western Pacific and an increase in the central Pacific, whereas these catches accumulate in the far western Pacific during La Niña conditions. However, the processes driving this zonal shift in the tuna catch (changing habitat conditions, currents or food availability) remain unclear. Here, we use an hindcast simulation from the mechanistic ecosystem model APECOSM that reasonably reproduces the observed zonal shift of the epipelagic community in response to ENSO to understand the mechanisms underlying this shift.Although the response of modeled epipelagic communities to El Niño is relatively similar for the different size classes studied, the processes responsible for these changes vary considerably by organism size. One of the major results of our analysis is the critical role of eastward passive transport by El Niño-related surface current anomalies for all size classes. While the effects of passive transport dominate the effects of growth and predation changes for large organisms, this is not the case for intermediate-sized organisms in the western Pacific, where the decrease in biomass is first explained by increased predation and then decreased foraging success. For small organisms, changes in growth rate, induced by the influence of temperature on fish physiology, is an important process that reinforces the biomass increase induced by passive horizontal transport in the eastern Pacific and the biomass decrease induced by increased predation by intermediate-sized organisms near the dateline. Finally, contrary to what is often assumed, our model shows that active habitat-based movements are not required to explain the westward biomass shifts that are observed during ENSO.This study illustrates the relevance of using a mechanistic ecosystem model to disentangle the role of the different processes controlling biomass changes. It highlights the essential dynamic role of ocean currents in shaping the response of marine communities to climate variability and its interaction with biological (e.g. growth) and ecological (e.g. foraging and predation) processes, whose relative importance varies with organisms’ size and contribute to modify the community structure.

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

Why was the heat wave in the Yangtze River valley abnormally intensified in late summer 2022?

A record-breaking heat wave hit the Yangtze River valley during the boreal summer of 2022, and caused severe social and economic losses. One prominent feature of this long-lived heat event was its persistence and abnormal intensification in August. This study investigated the physical mechanisms be responsible for the intensification of this heat event in late summer under the background of a La Niña event. The prolonged heat event was directly related to the intensification and westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which can be attributed to the synergistic effects of an anomalous western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone and the eastward extension of the South Asian high (SAH) in the upper troposphere. The anomalous anticyclone in the WNP, which was induced by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific, strengthened in August. The positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the western Pacific warm pool and enhanced in-situ convection led to anomalous high pressure over the Yangtze River valley via the local meridional circulation. Atmospheric convergence and descending motion over the Yangtze River valley was amplified in August as a result of the zonal shift in the SAH from the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau. The Silk Road pattern (SRP) index of August 2022 was the lowest since the 1990s. The abnormal negative phase of the SRP contributed to both the zonal shift in the SAH and the westward extension of the WNPSH, which led to the abnormal intensification of the heat event over the Yangtze River valley in August 2022.

Seasonal variations in surface processes and hydroclimate on an alpine lake, NE Tibetan Plateau

Koucha Lake, located in Qinghai Province, north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) at an elevation of 4530 m a.s.l. Occupies an ideal position to investigate the seasonal hydroclimatic variations and related surface processes during the Holocene. We re-investigated the lake and analysed a new sediment core from the deepest part of the lake. Grain size measurements and related endmember modelling analyses (EMMA) in combination with ostracod associations together with geochemical parameters and mineral compositions from core sediments were used as relevant proxies for hydro-climatic reconstruction.A comparison of δ18O/δD from various waters on the NETP indicates a clear depleted isotopic signature of non-monsoon moisture supply in comparison to summer rainfalls, highlighting the summer evaporation for δ18O enrichment, as a reference for interpreting δ18O values from lake sediments for various situations of hydrological balance. Based on the individual core chronology the multi-proxy data indicate a very low sedimentation rate over the entire period in accordance with the catchment topography and the absence of well-developed and constant river systems, limiting the flux of sediment supply to the lake. Thus, Koucha Lake remains almost a closed system since the Lateglacial, except for the early mid-Holocene part of the sequence. The coarser particle components and their representative endmembers for spring flood and permafrost thaw between 11.9 and 10.1 cal Ka BP and from 4.5 to ca. 1.0 cal Ka BP point to lower lake levels, influenced by long winter duration with dry summer interruptions, and lighter oxygen isotopes were preserved at low evaporations. Fine-grained sediments supplied by permafrost thaw associated with activating summer surface erosion led to lake level rise between 10.1 and 4.5 cal Ka BP and during the last 1000 years, with a maximum during 7.6–7.1 cal Ka BP. Their enriched δ18O values indicate extended summer duration and concomitant evaporation enhancement, albeit a positive hydrological balance. We suggest that the interannual latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and westerly Jet and attendant varying monsoon rain belt locations are responsible tracers for the variation of the hydrological budget of the lake and the variable spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in humid and (semi) arid regions in China.

Buoyancy Forcing Dominates the Cross-Equatorial Ocean Heat Transport Response to Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cooling

Abstract Cross-equatorial ocean heat transport (OHT) changes have been found to damp meridional shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) induced by hemispheric asymmetries in radiative forcing. Zonal-mean energy transport theories and idealized model simulations have suggested that these OHT changes occur primarily due to wind-driven changes in the Indo-Pacific’s shallow subtropical cells (STCs) and buoyancy-driven changes in the deep Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In this study we explore the partitioning between buoyancy and momentum forcing in the ocean’s response. We adjust the top-of-atmosphere solar forcing to cool the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics in a novel set of comprehensive climate model simulations designed to isolate buoyancy-forced and momentum-forced changes. In this case of NH high-latitude forcing, we confirm that buoyancy-driven changes in the AMOC dominate in the Atlantic. However, in contrast with prior expectations, buoyancy-driven changes in the STCs are the primary driver of the heat transport changes in the Indo-Pacific. We find that buoyancy-forced Indo-Pacific STC changes transport nearly 4 times the amount of heat across the equator as the shallower wind-driven STC changes. This buoyancy-forced STC response arises from extratropical density perturbations that are amplified by the low cloud feedback and communicated to the tropics by the ventilated thermocline. While the ocean’s specific response is dependent on the forcing scheme, our results suggest that partitioning the ocean’s total response to energy perturbations into buoyancy and momentum forcing provides basin-specific insight into key aspects of how the ocean damps ITCZ migrations that previous zonal-mean frameworks omit.

Intensified aridity over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool controlled by ice-sheet expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum

The magnitude, direction and cause of precipitation changes across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) remain elusive. In particular, it is still inconclusive whether tropical or extra-tropical factors controlled such precipitation changes. Determining the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation in the IPWP during the LGM is a valid strategy to address this issue, but the existing precipitation records are dominantly from maritime continents and marginal seas, with few data from pelagic oceans. In order to fill this gap, we analyzed the oxygen isotopic compositions of single Ethmodiscus rex diatom frustules (δ18OE. rex) from a sediment core (WPD-03) consisting of laminated diatom mats (LDMs) in the eastern Philippine Sea (EPS). δ18OE. rex was controlled mainly by sea-surface salinity variation and, thus, can reflect open-ocean precipitation changes across the IPWP. Our precipitation proxy records, in combination with existing published data, reveal spatial patterns of precipitation change that indicate overall drying across the IPWP during the LGM. Based on a comparison of paleoclimatic records with modeling results, we propose that extra-tropical factors (ice-sheet size) controlled precipitation variability in the IPWP during the LGM through a combination of zonal shifts of ENSO and meridional migration of the ITCZ. Strong aridity during the LGM prevented formation of a subsurface barrier layer and, hence, allowed accessing of sufficient nutrients to surface waters, stimulating blooms of E. rex and subsequent formation of LDMs in the IPWP. These findings suggest an important role for high-latitude climate in the tropical hydrological cycle during the LGM.

An overview of Atlantic forcing of the North Sea with focus on oceanography and biogeochemistry

This paper provides an overview of the current knowledge of Atlantic forcing of the North Sea's hydro- and biogeochemical dynamics. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) causes the largest short-term variations via common large scale atmospheric variations and the wind-driven exchange of water masses. On longer time scales the zonal shifts in the position of the subpolar front (SPF) in the eastern North Atlantic, also triggered by the NAO, determine the oceanic settings in the northern and central North Sea. The hydrodynamics of the southern North Sea are influenced more by local forcings. The influence of Atlantic forcing extends to the biogeochemistry of the northern North Sea, but its influence on primary production is still unclear. Climate change is expected to reinforce some of the forcing mechanisms but may reduce others, and further work is advised to firm up the projections available to date.

Role of Asian Westerly Jet Core's Zonal Migration in Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

AbstractPaleoclimatic records reveal spatially asynchronous changes of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the Holocene, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. This study explores the role of the zonal shift of the Asian westerly jet (AWJ) core on the spatial‐temporal variability of EASM precipitation based on Holocene climate simulations using the KCM and CESM forced by orbital variations. We analyzed the composite differences of summer precipitation and associated atmospheric circulations between the early (middle) and middle (late) Holocene. Simulations suggest a dipole pattern of summer precipitation with increasing (decreasing) precipitation in central (southern) China from the early to late Holocene, which was shaped by the eastward shift of the AWJ core. The eastward shift of the AWJ core and the accompanied eastward movement of the upper‐level convergence over the AWJ's right exit region weakened the low‐level downward motions over central China. Meanwhile, the low‐level upward motions over southern China were weakened by the concurrent eastward (westward) migration of the South Asian High (western Pacific subtropical High) during the Holocene. Consequently, summer precipitation increased (decreased) in central (southern) China from the early to late Holocene. The eastward shift of the AWJ core was primarily driven by amplified meridional insolation gradient at middle latitudes via strengthening upper‐level westerly intensity during the Holocene. In addition, land cover difference between East Asia and central Asia caused a greater enhancement of westerlies intensity in East Asia, further modulating the eastward movement of the AWJ core during the Holocene.

Linking Coherent Anticyclonic Eddies in the Iceland Basin to Decadal Oceanic Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic

AbstractThe Iceland Basin in the eastern Subpolar North Atlantic is an eddy‐rich region characterized by intense anticyclonic eddy activity. Our study present the variability of coherent Anticyclonic Eddies (AEs) generated in this region, using satellite altimetry and two ocean eddy tracking algorithms. The yearly count of AEs in the Iceland Basin reveals a decadal variability similar to that of ocean heat content change in the eastern subpolar gyre. Periods with higher number of AEs coincide with periods of increased ocean heat content, and vice versa. However, both algorithms agree that more than 50% of the detected AEs are confined to the central Iceland Basin. The annual number of AEs also tracks zonal shifts of the subpolar front, a variable that can explain about 53 (77)% of the interannual (decadal) variability of AEs in the Iceland Basin. Finally, a Lagrangian approach is used to demonstrate that the amount of subtropical versus subpolar water masses reaching the Iceland Basin appears to influence, via baroclinic instability, the generation of AEs.