Youth Bulge Research Articles

Demographic Youth Bulge and Unemployment as Potential for Political Violence and Insecurity in Africa, with Special Reference to South Africa

Demographic Youth Bulge and Unemployment as Potential for Political Violence and Insecurity in Africa, with Special Reference to South Africa

Social media, youth and civil unrest in India: A new rebel's dilemma

Social media has received tremendous attention as a tool of revolution since the Arab Spring. Current scholarship predicts that social media can be a threat to internal stability by aiding rebel recruitment and mobilizing them. This article expands this research agenda beyond the Middle East-North Africa region and authoritarian regimes and explains the dynamics of how social media affects contentious politics. Youth bulge is used here as an intervening variable between social media and conflict. Using mixed methods on a sample of 28 Indian states, four Union Territories and 200 educated youth, I find that the presence of educated youth using social media is not a clear threat. Online and offline surveys conducted on Indian youth show that they do not consider social media a useful “technology of revolution” for mobilizing support and thereby bringing about any meaningful change. At best, social media helps in gathering support at the local level like in a neighborhood brawl.

The State of Urbanization, Demographic Changes, and Family Dynamics in Africa

Rapid urbanization and population growth in Africa, coupled with the complex interplay between changing demographics, have resulted in significant implications for families. Using secondary sources, this desk review explores macro-level population dynamics and demographic shifts surrounding family size, intergenerational solidarity, housing, care for the elderly, marital relationships, declining marriage rates, and rising divorce rates. It draws from the demographic transition theory to underscore the impact of social and cultural factors on fertility rates and family dynamics. This article further underscores the significance of these dynamics in the context of North African societies and the broader African continent, offering insights into the evolving role of families and their unique challenges. It then discusses the missed opportunities associated with the demographic dividend and youth bulge, and the measures necessary to unlock the region’s full potential for sustainable economic growth and social development. The article concludes with policy recommendations for strategic development planning, investments in human capital, rural development, and research to navigate the complex connections between urbanization, demographics, and family dynamics.

Youth Population in Pakistan: Leveraging Growth for National Advancement

This study examines Pakistan's youth, who comprise more than 64% of the population, and their capacity for change and the implications for the country's future. It examines the current demographic trends, problems like the lack of meaningful employment opportunities, education and skill gaps, unemployment, and the potential benefits of this demographic boom. To maximize youth potential as a catalyst for economic growth, social progress, and innovation and avoid the youth bulge becoming a socio-political strain, the article emphasizes the urgent need for strategic interventions and comprehensive reforms in education, employment, health, and civic participation. The study offers suggestions and measures to turn the growing youth population into a significant asset for national development and draws lessons from international examples, particularly China. To make the rising population of youth an asset for Pakistan, several measures are required. Firstly, investing in quality education is crucial. By implementing policies that guarantee equal educational opportunities for all young individuals, irrespective of their socioeconomic status, we can effectively provide them with the essential competencies and information required to navigate the challenges of the forthcoming era. This includes promoting technical and vocational training programs to address the needs of the job market. Secondly, creating employment opportunities is essential. The government and private sector should work together to generate jobs and promote entrepreneurship. This can be achieved through supportive policies, incentives for businesses, and fostering a conducive environment for innovation and growth. Lastly, focusing on healthcare and social services is vital. By prioritizing the well-being of the youth, we can address issues such as malnutrition, healthcare access, and mental health support. This will not only improve their quality of life but also enable them to contribute effectively to the development of the nation. By implementing these measures, Pakistan can harness the potential of its growing youth population and transform them into an asset for the country's progress and prosperity.

INVITED ARTICLE: YOUTH IN THE SRI LANKAN POPULATION: EXPANSION OF THEIR SIZE, ENGAGEMENT IN EDUCATION AND EMERGING CHALLENGES

The main objective of the paper is to investigate the population dynamics of present and future decades with special reference to the youth population, and emerging challenges of youth with special reference to their education. Apart from the population projection information, data was collected from various publications of the Ministry of Education and the Department of Census and Statistics. The youth (age 15-29 years) bulge will be at its peak during the period of 2030s and 2040s. The data indicates a significant increase of school dropouts in Sri Lanka – compared to 2018 by 2020 the student population declined by about 151,000. Although, during the period 2016 to 2018 there was an increase of students in the Collegiate cycle (Grade 12/13), during 2018 to 2020 the student population declined by 146,000 – ‘Lost Generation’. The COVID-19 impact on school education could be attributed to this drop and economic recession and escalation of inflation have further discouraged students to move into Grade 11 and above levels. In this present serious economic recession and inflation, those who left schools would be pushed into vulnerable employment categories, including the sex industry. Thus, appropriate policy reform is an immediate need, to capitalize on the full potential of the Sri Lankan youth for the development of the nation.

Youth and Laws of Success – Pakistan’s Context

This article aims to identify measures to harness Pakistan's youth bulge as a valuable asset for national prosperity by emphasizing their critical role in the country's development. Pakistan's total population stands at 241.49 million, with approximately 64% of the population being below the age of 30, presenting both opportunities and challenges. To transform this youth demographic into a dividend rather than a threat, it highlights three potential sources: religion, Iqbal's poetry, and mind sciences, which can help harness their potential for the nation. Drawing from case studies of recently developed Asian countries that have effectively leveraged their youth, the article includes relevant data of Japan, Singapore South Korea and China to streamline the study. For transforming process, the article proposes dividing the youth into three age groups (below 7 years, 7-14 years, and 15-30 years) and suggests tailored measures for each. In the end it recommends a set of measures.

Power and vulnerability: Re-reading Mark 6:14–29 in the light of political violence in Zimbabwe

This article examined the story of the beheading of John the Baptist according to the Gospel of Mark (6:14–29) and drew lessons for the situation of politically motivated violence perpetrated by the youth in Zimbabwe. Politically motivated violence in Zimbabwe is a well-documented problem that negatively impacts on human rights. The article used the historical-critical method in its re-reading of the text in question and the ‘youth bulge theory’ as theoretical framework. Documentary analysis was employed to solicit data from various reports, documents and the Internet. Results showed that it was mostly the poor and unemployed youth who engaged in acts of politically motivated violence and did so on behalf of political parties and leaders. Based on these findings, it is argued that just as both Herod and Herodias abused their power by manipulating the daughter of Herodias in their plot to eliminate John the Baptist, so did powerful Zimbabwean politicians and leaders manipulate economically and socially vulnerable youth for their own political expediency.Contribution: Drawing from Mark 6:14–29, this article presents an application of the New Testament text of Mark 6:14–29 to the politically motivated violence in Zimbabwe in order to promote responsible leadership for a peaceful and tolerant Zimbabwean society. It also contributes to the argument that New Testament texts are intrinsically political documents, which scholars should try to unpack.

Invest in Future: Prioritising Youth Family Planning

Dividend of our much-touted youth bulge will remain a pipedream unless our policy makers realise the need for investing in the health, education, and general wellbeing of the young. Our young population is at a greater risk than adults when using contraceptive services. This risk results from a lack of early education in human reproductive system as well as the cultural taboos surrounding the subject. Affordability, accessibility, and knowledge of contraception are inadequate for young women and couples who would want to space pregnancies. Individuals’ reproductive intentions remain uninformed by critical awareness that swells the number of unintended pregnancies, further aggravated by hazardous unprofessionally administered abortions.
 ONE-THIRD OF YOUNG MARRIED WOMEN HAVE A DESIRE TO USE CONTRACEPTION
 There are misconceptions that family planning is for older or married women, despite the fact that many adolescent girls are sexually active. Nearly one third of the young married women, aged 15-19, have a desire to use contraception but are not currently using any contraceptive methods in Pakistan.
 EARLY INITIATION OF CHILDBEARING IS LINKED TO EDUCATION, OR LACK OF IT
 Universally, early childbearing before age 18 is associated with many sociodemographic and economic risk factors for young women. For instance, having a child during teenage has adverse consequences for both mother and child’s health. Similarly, women who marry before they are 18 are more likely to drop out of school and are less likely to work.
 In Pakistan, eight percent of teenage women between 15-19 have begun child bearing and it has remained unchanged since 2012-13 (NIPS 2018). Young women, aged 15-19, with no formal education are at a higher risk of teenage childbearing. Around 15 percent of the teenage ever-married girls with no formal education had already begun childbearing.
 DISCONNECT BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND USE OF CONTRACEPTION AMONG MARRIED WOMEN AGED 15-19
 Around 93 percent of currently married teenage women (15-19 years) are not using any contraceptive methods. However, when it comes to knowledge about contraceptive use, only 9 percent of the teenage women did not know any family planning method. A vast majority of women (90.5 percent) know about modern contraceptive methods (Figure 3a & 3b).
 UNINTENDED FERTILITY AND UNMET NEED FOR FAMILY PLANNING AMONG YOUNG WOMEN 
 Despite the universal knowledge of family planning methods, particularly modern methods, the lack of use of contraception results in unintended fertility. According to PDHS 2017-18, around 4 percent of the births among mothers less than 20 years old are mistimed. Unmet need for family planning is higher among women aged 15-19. Nearly 18 percent of the young currently married women have an unmet need for family planning in Pakistan (NIPS 2018).

The Politics of Demographic Change: Addressing the Youth Bulge in Ivory Coast

This research explores the relationship between youth bulge and political instability, using Ivory Coast as a case study. Despite being one of the world's poorest continents, Africa is experiencing a quick and considerable youth bulge, posing difficulties to political stability. The youth bulge phenomenon, which is defined by a disproportionate increase in the youthful population compared to other age groups, has historically been linked to political upheaval, as evidenced by events such as the Arab Spring. Lack of democracy, economic restrictions, and ethnic or religious discrimination are among the factors that contribute to political instability during a youth bulge. This study uses a qualitative research approach and secondary data analysis to investigate the impact of the youth bulge on the Ivory Coast political scene. The findings suggest a high youth unemployment rate of 35.7%, as well as considerable differences in educational access and political participation among young people. This lack of political engagement exacerbates the confusion, resulting in rebellion and instability. The study emphasizes the significance of tackling socioeconomic difficulties and increasing political inclusion to counteract the negative consequences of the youth bulge on political stability in Ivory Coast and other contexts.

Forthcoming youth bulge in Egypt: possible sociopolitical implications

ABSTRACT The increased proportion of youth aged 15–24 or 15–29 in total or adult population has long been shown to influence the intensity of sociopolitical destabilisation in general and political violence in particular. Youth bulges played an important role in the destabilising processes of the Arab Spring. We show that the influence of youth bulges in Egypt (and North Africa in general) is far from being limited to historical events. The demographic dynamics of Egypt (and a number of other North African countries) implies the emergence of new youth bulges in the future. We proceed to discuss this phenomenon and its sociopolitical implications. The period of the eve of the Arab Spring and the beginning of the 2010s was accompanied by the strengthening of the influence of Islamists in all countries of North Africa and in many Arab countries of Asia, which was likely associated with a period of significant growth of fertility rates in these countries. This surge in fertility rates generated those youth bulges that are confidently forecasted in these countries for the 2030s. It cannot be ruled out that in the 2030s Egypt (and North Africa in general) will experience a new destabilisation wave, which will be a kind of echo of the wave of the late 2000s – early 2010s.

Youth Bulge as a Peacebuilding Opportunity for Africa: The Case of Zimbabwe’s Youth Empowerment Programmes

This study seeks to investigate the impact of youth empowerment programmes on the peace process in Zimbabwe. Demographers have revealed that the youth population in Sub-Saharan Africa is growing to become what is termed the youth bulge. This demographic phenomenon combined with elusive formal wage employment in many African countries has often resulted in youth becoming a de-stabilising force. As a solution to youth unemployment and vulnerability, Zimbabwe adopted youth development and empowerment programmes. The efforts have, however, suffered from a myriad of challenges including lack of political will, political interference and marginalisation of the youth in decision making. This is an empirical mixed-methods study that relied on primary and secondary data that was gathered through quantitative and qualitative means. The study presents comprehensive perspectives on how youth empowerment can be a mitigating measure against youth propensity to violence. The study argues that without proper and genuine youth development and empowerment, peace will continue to be elusive in Zimbabwe and the rest of Africa.

Demography and insecurity: Youth bulge and the Lake Chad Basin security quandary

ABSTRACT Insecurity is a prominent phenomenon that threatens the peace and development of Africa in general and particularly, the Lake Chad Basin [LCB]. One of the factors driving the menace is the phenomenon of youth bulge. This article argues that young people with poor economic prospects are liable to be recruited for violence. Situated within the grievance model, the article shows how youth make up the larger percentage of protesting, violent and armed groups in the region and presents evidence of how grievance against deprivation moves demography to exacerbate insecurity. The article adopts a qualitative approach and relies on secondary data sourced from briefs, government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and internet sources. The findings show that the endless supply of children and young people in the LCB is a major factor driving insecurity. By examining the phenomenon of Almajiri, child soldiers and youth radicalisation as enablers of conflict and insecurity in the LCB, the article concludes that population explosion amid a lack of resources leads to grievance and fuels insecurity. This is significant given the paucity of literature on the incidence of demography and insurgency in the LCB; which has become a theatre of insecurity in Africa.

Dangerous Youth: why Do Political Uprisings Take an Unarmed Form?

Quantitative cross-national studies of the factors of violent (armed) versus nonviolent (unarmed) revolutionary events are very few, and they do not pay enough attention to such a powerful factor as a high proportion of young people in the total adult population – the “youth bulge”. We assume that (1) revolutionary uprisings in countries with a greater youth bulge will be significantly more likely to take armed form than in countries with a significantly lower value of this indicator. We also assume that (2) the higher the median age of the population, the higher the likelihood for a revolutionary uprising take an unarmed character. In general, both of our hypotheses are fully confirmed. Thus, there is a reason to believe that the significant increase in the median age of the population observed at the global level in the recent decades could have contributed to a noticeable decrease in the share of armed revolutionary uprisings and an increase in the share of unarmed ones.

Youth as a factor of political stability

In this article, the author studies the concept of political stability and analyzes the factors of youth that affect stability. To date, the world’s population is increasing, and young people occupy the main cohort. In this regard, they are both a positive resource and a negative one. According to research, the propensity of young people to terrorist and protest activity is because the state is not able to meet the needs of young people. In particular, youth policy is understood as a system of state measures aimed at supporting and developing youth. An analysis of stability studies showed that one of the factors contributing to a decrease in stability is youth. Factors contributing to youth mobilization include youth bulge (increase in the number of young people in relation to the total population), growth in education with high unemployment, high unemployment and low levels of resources in relation to the number of young people, poverty, urbanization (youth migration to cities, an increase in the number of young people), social conditions (low motivation/family/career), low trust in political institutions, high levels of corruption, etc.

Promoting Domestic Commerce for Sustainable Pro-poor Growth

To frame the issue, two characteristics of Pakistan should be noted. First, Pakistan has a very large market of 160 million people. For decades, this fact has been ignored in policy because of the focus on production and exports.1 Second, a large and growing population has now produced a huge youth bulge in the population which will work itself out for much of this century: 50 percent of the population is “under 20”.2 Progress of the spread of education has been slow, leaving this bulge largely unskilled, and hence with limited employment possibilities. Domestic commerce is the most pro-poor growth possibility in the country. Currently, it employs about 40 percent of the labour force and contributes about 52 percent to GDP. If it can be provided with an enabling environment, our estimates suggest that it could help increase the growth rate by at least 2 percentage points. In addition, a pick up of activity in this area would increase employment substantially. Following this agenda would need a huge increase in construction activity, strong development in hotelling, retail shop, transport, warehousing, storage, and other service industries. The employment impact of this would be far larger than through investment in any other sector.

Digital Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Deception, Disinformation and Social Media

Digital Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Deception, Disinformation and Social Media

VMMC Programmatic Successes and Challenges: Western Kenya Case Study.

The Nyanza region of western Kenya is lauded for impressive coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) and remains the bedrock of the VMMC program in Kenya. We conducted literature review on programmatic successes and challenges of implementing VMMC program in the region. Responsive stakeholders' engagement, robust policy environment, effective technical working groups, prompt capacity building of health facilities, government support, flexible implementation strategies, and sustained donor funding contributed to the successes of the program that saw circumcision prevalence in Nyanza reach between 75.6 and 85.3% among 15-29-year-olds by 2019. However, the lack of support for early infant circumcision, inadequate domestic financing, and slow pace of service integration into government health facilities continue to undermine the progress towards sustainability. While local ownership of the VMMC program has been demonstrated through its inclusion in county annual health workplans and progressive integration into routine health care, continued dependence on declining external funding threatens its sustainability. Furthermore, Kenya is experiencing a youth bulge with a projected high demand for VMMC which calls for increased resource inputs into the program. Strategies are therefore needed to increase domestic resource inflows into VMMC.

A national analysis of the pharmacy workforce in Indonesia

BackgroundPharmacists play a fundamental role in healthcare systems and achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) through quality primary healthcare service provision. While the World Health Organization (WHO) forecasts a global shortage of health workforce by 2030, mainly affecting low- and middle-income nations (LMICs), limited published literature is found regarding pharmacy workforce capacity in LMICs, including Indonesia. This paper aims to analyse pharmacists’ capacity in Indonesia to identify emerging workforce planning gaps for future workforce planning and policies in Indonesia.MethodSeveral data sources were accessed, including a database from the National Pharmacy Committee and the professional leadership body in Indonesia. Descriptive (frequencies, percentages, and mean), correlational and time-series analysis using curve estimation were conducted. Secondary data on the number of programmes, pharmacy students, pharmacy workforce (pharmacists and pharmacy technicians) per province were obtained from the Ministry websites and reports.ResultThere were a total of 77 191 registered pharmacists in Indonesia in 2019. The pharmacists’ pyramid showed a youth bulge as a general indication of market expansion in the education sector correlating to the pharmacy programme’s number and size. There was a variation in pharmacy workforce density and access to pharmacy programmes across islands, which also were strongly correlated. Forecasting estimates that by 2030, women will represent around 86% of pharmacists in Indonesia. More female pharmacists were found working in the hospital and primary healthcare (providing direct services to patients) than male pharmacists. Younger pharmacists worked in the industrial sector, while older pharmacists worked in governmental and educational institutions.ConclusionThis study signposted workforce planning gaps for policy development in Indonesia, including a need to develop structured training to support early career pharmacists in their practice. There is also a need for better access to professional development programmes designed to support female pharmacists return to the regulated workforce following career breaks. National policy to promote equitable distribution and retention of pharmacists is recommended.

The role of youth bulge on political instability: Cross-country evidence

This paper investigates how unemployment and democracy influence the relationship between youth bulges and political instability. A novel feature of our empirical analysis is that we examine the joint effect of labour markets and the level of democracy in the linkage between youth bulges and political instability. Using political instability data derived from the International Country Risk Guide we conduct a series of panel data analyses over one hundred countries and make use of several sub-samples for the years 1984–2019. We find that youth bulge alone enhances political instability, while high rates of unemployment further enhance its role. Interestingly, we find that moving towards democracy increases its effect upon political instability if greater percentages of youth population and unemployment persist in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries.

Perceptions of succession planning in family-owned businesses

ABSTRACT India has the third highest number of family-owned businesses (FoBs) globally, yet their intergenerational survival is at risk. The country faces a steep decline in female labor force participation and a “youth bulge,” with 54 percent of the population below the age of 25. The postpandemic era has necessitated the need for small and medium-sized enterprises to reinvent themselves to adapt to the fast-paced digital landscape. The perceptions of human capital and the inclusion of women in family business succession planning are often ignored. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship of nonfamily employees and gender inclusivity on the survival of family-owned businesses. The authors propose a more inclusive culture in the FoB landscape as they undertake an ethnographic study to review literature between 2017 and 2022 while highlighting the impact of organizational culture to achieve gender egalitarianism and aid the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.