In this issue of JAMA, Xu et al1 provide 2010 estimates of the prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in China. This is the first large survey to use the latest American Diabetes Association criteria, which include glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose, and 2-hour glucose during a 75-g oral-glucose tolerance test. The study was a substantial undertaking, striving for representation across 31 provinces and performing all 3 glucose measures in 98 658 Chinese adults. The authors report a prevalence of 11.6% for diabetes (4.5% by fasting plasma glucose ≥125 mg/dL and 4.6% by HbA1c ≥6.5%) and 50.1% for prediabetes (35.4% by HbA1c ≥5.7%-6.4% and 27.2% by fasting plasma glucose ≥100-125 mg/dL, ). Among those with diabetes, only 30% had been previously diagnosed and only 26% were treated. Among those treated, only 40% had HbA1c concentrations lower than 7%.1 Despite the widely publicized report of 9.7% for diabetes and 15.5% for prediabetes byYang et al2 in the 2007China survey, the findings reported by Xu et al1 indicate that the epidemic of diabetes andprediabetes inChinahas shownno sign of abating. In examining the testing patterns bywhich the diabetes and prediabetes diagnoses weremade, the 2-hour glucosemeasure contributed the least to these diagnoses, uniquely establishing the diagnosis in only 15%of thosewith newly diagnoseddiabetes and 4% of those with prediabetes. This finding has 2 important ramifications. First, the increased prevalence of obesity may have affected the testing characteristics of the population with diabetes or prediabetes. In contrast to this report, themajority of adults with diabetes or prediabetes in the mid 1990-2000s had high post– glucose loading plasma glucose levels.3 In the 2010 survey, 1 in3Chineseadultshadeither centralorgeneralobesity.Among theobeseparticipants, 1 in 2hadprediabetes and1 in5haddiabetes. Furthermore, there were associations between diabetes andprediabeteswithother cardiometabolic risk factors includingdyslipidemia andhighbloodpressure.1 Second, these data support a high diagnostic yield from the combination of themore easily obtained fasting plasma glucose andHbA1c in the Chinese population. Inadditionto thevalueof fastingplasmaglucoseandHbA1c in diabetes screening, these diagnostic tests also have prognostic value in predicting the onset of chronic disease. In the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration involving 97 prospectivestudiesof820 900peoplewithanaccrualof 123 205deaths, peoplewithdiabeteshada 1.3to 3-fold increased riskofdeath due to multiple causes including cardiovascular disease, renal failure,mental illnesses, all-site cancer, hepatobiliary disease, and sepsis. Overall, diabetes was associated with reduced life expectancy of 6 years, especially in persons with young onset of disease. Importantly, there were linear relationships between fastingplasmaglucose andhazard ratios of all vascular, cancer, nonvascular, andnoncancer events starting from a threshold plasma glucose value of 90 to 108 mg/ dL. These hazards were attenuated with adjustment of fasting plasma glucose only, supporting the causal nature of glucotoxicity inmultipleorgandysfunction.4Similarly, thenear linear relationships between HbA1c and risk of diabetes, cardiovasculardisease5 andcancer6havebeen reported inpeople withorwithoutdiabetes. Inadequate control of fastingplasma glucose andHbA1c inChinaherald a looming andmassive epidemicof chronicdiseases, if promptpreventiveactionsarenot taken. Given themagitude of the problem,what are the priorities in preventive actions? According to the study, 50% of Chinese men were current smokers. Although Xu et al found negative associations of diabetes and prediabeteswith smoking, which might be due to reverse causality, the dose-response associationbetweensmokinganddiabeteshasbeenreported inametaanalysis of prospective studies.7 Although it remains to be proven whether tobacco control would reduce the diabetesprediabetes epidemic, smoking cessation shouldhelpmitigate the amplifying effects of tobacco on the adverse effects of glucotoxicityonorgandamage.Asiahas thehighestpopulationof tobaccousers.Although the levels of development, systemsof government, and population size differ greatly among countries, there have been successful reports of tobacco control through strong political will and restrictive policies in some areas, such as in New Zealand and Hong Kong.8 In the study by Xu et al,1 5% to 8% of those in the 18to 40-year age group had diabetes and 40% to 50% had prediabetes. Apart from phenotypic and genotypic heterogeneity, which pose therapeutic challenges, these young adults are at high risk of prematuremortality and cardiovascular-renal disease during the prime of life. Yet, in part, due to the nonurgent nature of the condition and competing priorities, these young to middle-aged persons often have high rates of nonadherence, default, and suboptimal risk factor control.9 For such populations, a life course and proactive approach starting with protecting maternal and childhood health, promotingahealthy lifestyle, andavoidingobesity fromchildhoodand by launchingoutreachawareness anddetectionprograms targeting theworkforce and early intervention of high-risk individuals with prediabetes, notably those with gestational diabetes and family history of diabetes, are measures that are in linewith theWorldHealthOrganization (WHO)Global Planof Action for Control and Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases.10 Diabetes is a societal and a health care challenge due to complex interplays amonggenetic, perinatal, lifestyle, andenvironmental factors, to name but a few. Rapidmodernization has resulted in an obesogenic environment characterized by food abundance, physical inactivity, and psychosocial stress. Related article 948 Opinion Editorial
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