Yield Prediction Research Articles

Objective representative flow field selection for tidal array layout design

The representation of flow across influential spatiotemporal scales introduces a challenge when micro-siting tidal stream turbine arrays. Robust representative approximations could accelerate design optimisation, yet there is no consensus on what defines the most appropriate flow conditions. We summarise existing approaches to representative flow field selection for array optimisation and propose an objective-driven process. The method curates a subset of flow fields that best captures relevant dynamics, enabling the streamlined representation of tidal cycles. To demonstrate the method, we consider flow modelling data in the Inner Sound of the Pentland Firth, Scotland, UK. We examine the impact of flow field inputs to array design through comparative analyses using a heuristic array optimisation process. Results indicate notable sensitivity of the turbine layout to the flow conditions selected. For the case study presented, our method led to 4%–5% energy yield prediction improvements relative to use of simple time-interval based approaches and up to 2% improvement against using peak flow fields; these can be pivotal margins to secure feasibility by developers. We also find that using the data associated with a single monitored point across the array for flow field selection can lead to sub-optimal results, emphasising the need for accurate spatiotemporal representation.

In Silico Models for Prediction of Methanol Yield in CO2 Hydrogenation Reaction Using Cu-Based Catalysts

In Silico Models for Prediction of Methanol Yield in CO2 Hydrogenation Reaction Using Cu-Based Catalysts

Onion (Allium cepa) Profit Maximization via Ensemble Learning-Based Framework for Efficient Nitrogen Fertilizer Use

Onion (Allium cepa) is a major field vegetable in South Korea and has been produced for a long time along with cabbage, radish, garlic, and dried peppers. However, as field vegetables, including onions, have recently been imported at low prices, the profitability of onion production in South Korea is beginning to be at risk. In order to maximize farmers’ profits through onion production, this study develops onion yield prediction models via an ensemble learning-based framework involving linear regression, polynomial regression, support vector regression, decision tree, ridge regression, and lasso regression. The use of nitrogen fertilizers is considered an independent variable in the development of the yield prediction model. This is because the use of nitrogen fertilizers accounts for the highest production cost (13.47%) after labor cost (41.21%) and seed cost (17.42%), and it also directly affects onions yields. For the model development, five research datasets on changes in onion yield according to changes in the use of existing nitrogen fertilizers were used. In addition, a non-linear optimization model was devised using onion yield prediction models for the profit maximization of onion production. As a result, the developed non-linear optimization model using polynomial regression enables an increase in profits from onion production by 67.28%.

Enhanced steelmaking cost optimization and real-time alloying element yield prediction: a ferroalloy model based on machine learning and linear programming

Enhanced steelmaking cost optimization and real-time alloying element yield prediction: a ferroalloy model based on machine learning and linear programming

Mapping Field-Level Maize Yields in Ethiopian Smallholder Systems Using Sentinel-2 Imagery

Remote sensing offers a low-cost method for estimating yields at large spatio-temporal scales. Here, we examined the ability of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to map field-level maize yields across smallholder farms in two regions in Oromia district, Ethiopia. We evaluated how effectively different indices, the MTCI, GCVI, and NDVI, and different models, linear regression and random forest regression, can be used to map field-level yields. We also examined if models improved by adding weather and soil data and how generalizable our models were if trained in one region and applied to another region, where no data were used for model calibration. We found that random forest regression models that used monthly MTCI composites led to the highest yield prediction accuracies (R2 up to 0.63), particularly when using only localized data for training the model. These models were not very generalizable, especially when applied to regions that had significant haze remaining in the imagery. We also found that adding soil and weather data did little to improve model fit. Our results highlight the ability of Sentinel-2 imagery to map field-level yields in smallholder systems, though accuracies are limited in regions with high cloud cover and haze.

Chemical Graph-Based Transformer Models for Yield Prediction of High-Throughput Cross-Coupling Reaction Datasets.

The chemical reaction yield is an important factor to determine the reaction conditions. Recently, many data-driven models for yield prediction using high-throughput experimentation datasets have been reported. In this study, we propose a neural network architecture based on the chemical graphs of the reaction components to predict the reaction yield. The proposed model is the sequential combination of a message-passing neural network and a transformer encoder (MPNN-Transformer). The reaction components are converted to molecular matrices by the first network, followed by the interplay of the reaction components in the second network after adding the embeddings of the compound roles in the chemical reaction. The predictive ability of the proposed models was compared with state-of-the-art yield prediction models using two high-throughput experimental datasets: the Buchwald-Hartwig cross-coupling (BHC) and Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling (SMC) reaction datasets. Overall, the MPNN-Transformer models showed high prediction accuracy for the BHC reaction datasets and some of the extrapolation-oriented SMC reaction datasets. These models also performed well when the training dataset size was relatively large. Furthermore, analyzing the poorly predicted reactions for the BHC reaction dataset revealed a limitation of the data-driven yield prediction approach based on the chemical structural similarity.

Rice yield prediction through integration of biophysical parameters with SAR and optical remote sensing data using machine learning models

In an era marked by growing global population and climate variability, ensuring food security has become a paramount concern. Rice, being a staple crop for billions of people, requires accurate and timely yield prediction to ensure global food security. This study was undertaken across two rice crop seasons in the Udham Singh Nagar district of Uttarakhand state to predict rice yield at 45, 60 and 90 days after transplanting (DAT) through machine learning (ML) models, utilizing a combination of optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data in conjunction with crop biophysical parameters. Results revealed that the ML models were able to provide relatively accurate early yield estimates. For summer rice, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB) was the best-performing model at all three stages (45, 60, and 90 DAT), while for kharif rice, the best-performing models at 45, 60, and 90 DAT were XGB, Neural network (NNET), and Cubist, respectively. The combined ranking of ML models showed that prediction accuracy improved as the prediction date approaches harvest, and the best prediction of yield was observed at 90 DAT for both summer and kharif rice. Overall rankings indicate that for summer rice, the top three models were XGB, NNET, and Support vector regression, while for kharif rice, these were Cubist, NNET, and Random Forest, respectively. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the potential of the combined use of remote sensing and biophysical parameters using ML models, which enhances food security planning and resource management by enabling more informed decision-making by stakeholders such as farmers, policy planners as well as researchers.

An allometry perspective on crops.

Understanding trait-trait coordination is essential for successful plant breeding and crop modeling. Notably, plant size drives variation in morphological, physiological, and performance-related traits, as described by allometric laws in ecology. Yet, as allometric relationships have been limitedly studied in crops, how they influence and possibly limit crop performance remains unknown. Here, we review how an allometry perspective on crops gains insights into the phenotypic evolution during crop domestication, the breeding of varieties adapted to novel conditions, and the prediction of crop yields. As allometry is an active field of research, modeling and manipulating crop allometric relationships can help to develop more resilient and productive agricultural systems to face future challenges.

Potential nutrient, carbon and fisheries impacts of large-scale seaweed and shellfish aquaculture in Europe evaluated using operational oceanographic model outputs

Large-scale seaweed and shellfish aquaculture are increasingly being considered by policymakers as a source of food, animal feed and bioproducts for Europe. These aquacultures are generally thought to be low impact or even beneficial for marine ecosystems as they are ‘extractive’ – i.e., growing passively on foodstuff already available in seawater, and with potential habitat provision, fisheries, climate mitigation and eutrophication mitigation benefits. At some scale however, over-extraction of nutrients or chlorophyll could potentially have a negative effect on natural systems. Understanding the likely impacts of aquaculture production at scale is important to identify when safe limits are being approached. Taking seaweed aquaculture as the primary focus, this work uses operational oceanographic model outputs to drive prognostic growth models to predict the likely optimal distribution of seaweed farms across European waters to meet different production scenarios. A novel nutrient transport scheme is then used to model the interacting ‘footprints’ of nutrient drawdown from aquaculture facilities to demonstrate the likely spatial impact of large-scale aquaculture. Evaluation of both seaweed and shellfish contributions to CO2 balance under large scale production, and the potential impact on fisheries are also considered. The study finds that the impact of intensive seaweed aquaculture on nutrient availability could be significant where many farms are placed close together; but at the regional/basin scale even the highest level of production considered does not significantly impact total nutrient budgets. Seaweed aquaculture has the potential to extract large amounts of carbon dioxide, but the impact on carbon budgets depends on the end-use of the extracted seaweed. Shellfish aquaculture is a net source of CO2 due to the impact of calcification of shells on the carbonate system (i.e., alkalinity removal). However, gram-for-gram the CO2 impact of shellfish production is likely to be less than the impact of land-based meat production. Whilst operational oceanographic models are useful for taking a ‘broad brush’ approach to likely placement and impacts of aquaculture, reliable yield predictions for individual locations across European waters would require models integrating more physical and biogeochemical factors (wave environment, local currents, riverine inputs) at a finer scale than currently achievable.

Rice yield prediction through drone-derived vegetation indices: A case study in Tamil Nadu, India

Precision farming has been revolutionized by advancements in drone technology and remote sensing, enabling high accuracy in real-time crop monitoring and yield prediction. To explore the potential of drone-based remote sensing for predicting the rice yield by the assessment of vegetation indices were generated and analyzed to identify the most sensitive indices for predicting Laef Area Index (LAI), chlorophyll content, and biomass. The experiment was conducted in two seasons, Kuruvai (July - November 2023) and Navarai (December 2023 - March 2024). In Kuruvai 2023, a positive correlation was observed between vegetation indices, Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI), Modified Chlorophyll and Reflectance Index (MCARI) and Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) with ground truth biophysical parameters, while Navarai season Perpendicular Vegetation Index (PVI), Modified Chlorophyll and Reflectance Index (MCARI) and Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) exhibited the highest positive correlation. The multiple linear regression analysis revealed that a combined model incorporating LAI, SPAD chlorophyll, and biomass registered the highest R2 values of 0.792 and 0.800 for the Kuruvai and Navarai seasons. The predicted yield was positively correlated with the real-time yield with R2 values of 0.819 and 0.803 for both seasons. This study underscores the potential of drone-based VIs for precise yield prediction, offering a scalable and non-destructive method to enhance agricultural productivity and support decision-making in precision farming. Future research should focus on refining these models for broader applications across crops and agro-climatic conditions.

Crop yield estimation uncertainties at the regional scale for Saxony, Germany

AbstractIn times of climate change and global population growth, agricultural yield forecasts play an increasingly important role. For example, predicting yields as early as possible in the event of a drought is crucial for decision‐makers in politics, government, and business. The aim of this study was to provide precise yield predictions at agricultural regions as early as possible with a minimum amount of weather data. Random forest models were used for this purpose. Although more than 290,000 datasets were available for analysis, all models tended to be heavily overfitting, which can be explained by the strong fragmentation of the input data by crop, region, and prediction time. The models reacted very differently to unknown datasets. It was found that the regionally trained models achieved lower (≥10%) relative root mean square errors (RRMSEs) than the supra‐regionally trained models. Rapeseed and barley achieved good predictions. Wheat had good potential, too. Corn, potatoes, and sugar beet achieved often too high RRMSEs. The results showed that targeted model selection for each region and an extension of the training time series could enable very good regional yield forecasts for rapeseed and cereals in the future.

Prediction of fresh herbage yield using data mining techniques with limited plant quality parameters

The purpose of this study was to ascertain the fresh herbage yield, fertilizer dosage, and plant characteristics of the Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrid grown in arid and semi-arid regions, as well as their interrelationships. For this reason, data from the Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrid were used to assess the predictive performance of several data mining techniques, including CHAID, CART, MARS, and Bagging MARS. Plant traits were measured in Konya and Sanliurfa during 2021 and 2022. The descriptive statistical values were calculated as follows: plant height 306.27 cm, stem diameter 9.47 mm, fresh herbage yield 10852.51 kg/da, crude protein ratio 9.66%, acid detergent fiber 33.39%, neutral detergent fiber 51.85%, acid detergent lignin 9.76%, dry matter digestibility 62.88%, dry matter intake 2.34%, and relative feed value 114.68 (average values). The predictive capacities of the fitted models were assessed using model fit statistics such as the coefficient of determination (R²), adjusted R², root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), standard deviation ratio (SD ratio), and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). With the lowest values for RMSE, MAPE, SD ratio, and AIC (246, 1.926, 0.085, and 845, respectively), and the highest R² value (0.993) and adjusted R² value (0.989), the MARS algorithm was determined to be the best model for characterizing fresh herbage yield. As a solid alternative to other data mining techniques, the MARS algorithm was shown to be the most appropriate model for forecasting fresh herbage production.

SSGAN: Cloud removal in satellite images using spatiospectral generative adversarial network

Satellite data’s reliability, uniformity, and global scanning capabilities have revolutionized agricultural monitoring and crop management. However, the presence of clouds in satellite images can obscure useful information, rendering them difficult to infer. Aiming at the problem of cloud cover, this study presents a SpatioSpectral Generative Adversarial Network (SSGAN) approach for effectively eliminating cloud cover from multispectral satellite images. It utilizes the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images as complementary information with the optical images from the Sentinel-2 satellite. The proposed model exploits feature extraction by sub-grouping the 13 channels of Sentinel-2 images based on their electromagnetic wavelength. Experimentally, we demonstrated that the proposed SSGAN model surpasses conventional and state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods and can reconstruct regions obscured by clouds. The subgrouping optimized the utilization of sensor information and improved the performance metrics for reconstructed images. Compared to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) approach, the SSGAN model demonstrates higher performance, achieving a mPSNR of 32.771, mSSIM of 0.880, and correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.889. The SSGAN model was further evaluated under varying conditions, including scenarios without the inclusion of SAR data, where it achieved a mPSNR of 26.825, mSSIM of 0.726, and CC of 0.615. Adding SAR images into the model significantly enhanced its performance, resulting in a mPSNR of 29.932, mSSIM of 0.857, and CC of 0.735. These results indicate that higher mPSNR, mSSIM, and CC values correspond to better image reconstruction quality. Our method enhances the usability of satellite data for crop mapping, crop health monitoring, and crop yield prediction.

Short-term PV energy yield predictions within city neighborhoods for optimum grid management

The global shift towards the exploitation of renewable energy sources is a key aspect in the transition to carbon-free societies. Although harnessing of PV energy disclosed the numerous environmental and economic benefits of PV systems, the ever-increasing share of PV systems in power generation has revealed their adverse effect on the electricity grid due to their dependence on weather conditions. Uncertain environmental parameters, especially cloud cover, can adversely affect the stability of the energy generated by a PV system, causing dynamic changes in PV power generation in a given future time period. Therefore, accurate predictions of PV power output are a major challenge, as they can contribute to the optimal management and flexibility of the power grid, and to the improvement of the operating efficiency of PV power stations, thus enabling the development of flexible green power electricity grids across cities. In addition, precise forecasting can provide system/grid operators with information needed for efficient capacity management and scheduling and ensure grid stability.Most forecasting models provide promising results in terms of error performance; however, they need weather variables or satellite information as inputs that make prognosis significantly challenging. Hence, the current work utilizes a data-driven method for predicting PV power generation from distributed PV systems. The spatio-temporal model Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields was considered. Although this model was used extensively for wind forecasting, in this work, it was used for solar PV power output predictions. Moreover, the effect of varying spatial distribution for aggregated multiple PV systems was investigated on the forecast model performance. The main objective was to provide the solar PV energy sector with important information for building a smart grid for cities or regions.Continuous data from a grid-connected dense network of 21 PV systems was used within a region of 38.485 km2 in Nicosia, Cyprus. It should be noted that the test set includes data only from winter months. The results showed that the predicted power output signal responds to the fluctuation and follows the trend of the actual power signal, even on days with large variations in actual PV power. The average nRMSE of all PV systems in each dataset studied ranges from 0.119 to 0.146, proving that the proposed method delivered significant results that can be compared with existing results from similar studies. Overall, the proposed method can provide important information that can assist in decision-making for the management, optimization, and visualization of grids across cities.

Calibration and validation of the AquaCrop model for forage cactus production systems under different management interventions in the semi-arid region of Brazil

Simulation models are useful tools for estimating plant response and contributing to the development of management strategies and yield predictions in crops. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the AquaCrop-FAO model for the forage cactus imposed on different cropping systems in the semi-arid region of Brazil. Four experiments were conducted: cactus-sorghum intercropping system with five spacings between plants (0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40 and 0.50 m); cactus-sorghum intercropping system with five spacings between rows (1.00, 1.25, 1.50 and 1.75 m); single cactus with four levels of mulch (0, 5, 10 and 15 Mg ha−1); and single forage cactus with four levels of nitrogen fertilisation (50, 150, 300 and 450 kg of N ha−1). The performance of the model was evaluated using the following parameters: root mean squared error (RMSE); normalised RMSE (NRMSE), coefficients of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (ME) and the Willmott index of agreement (d). During the calibration stage, the statistical indices pointed to the good performance of the AquaCrop model in estimating dry biomass in most of the cropping systems, with 10 < NRMSE <20; R2 > 0.96 and ME > 0.95. The AquaCrop model showed the best performance simulating systems under different levels of nitrogen fertilisation. Among the intercropping systems, the denser arrangements showed the highest values for simulated biomass.

Optimization and prediction of biogas yield from pretreated Ulva Intestinalis Linnaeus applying statistical-based regression approach and machine learning algorithms

A statistical-based regression approach and machine learning (ML) algorithms (response surface methodology (RSM), feed-forward backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) and multi-layer adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)) were explored for the optimization and prediction of biogas resulting from the anaerobic digestion (AD) of pretreated Ulva Intestinalis Linnaeus (UIL). ANFIS model was found to better predict and model the process of biogas production from the AD of pretreated UIL owing to low mean square error (MSE) and RMSE values (0.8841 and 0.9402-US, 0.9628 and 0.9812-O3, 0.1387 and 0.3724-MW and 0.3018 and 1.1410-Fe3O4) and highest values of R2 (0.9998-US, 0.9996-O3, 0.9996-MW and 0.9995-Fe3O4). Optimum conditions for biogas yield as a result of the various pretreatment processes based on the ANFIS model were US-15 power/time, time-40 min and the biogas yield-181.0 mL.gVS−1, O3-15.0 mg/min, time-40.0 min and biogas yield of 164.0 mL.gVS−1, MW-2.3 power/time, time-40.0 min and biogas yield-81.7 mL.gVS−1 and Fe3O4-20.0 mg L−1, time-40.0 min and biogas yield-154 mL.gVS−1. The results obtained show that the ML and statistical-based models were effective in approximating the biogas yield with high precision and low error and could be beneficial for the biogas production scale-up process.

Optimizing UAV Hyperspectral Imaging for Predictive Analysis of Nutrient Concentrations, Biomass Growth, and Yield Prediction of Potatoes

Optimizing UAV Hyperspectral Imaging for Predictive Analysis of Nutrient Concentrations, Biomass Growth, and Yield Prediction of Potatoes

Impacts of climate change on spatial wheat yield and nutritional values using hybrid machine learning

Abstract Wheat’s nutritional value is critical for human nutrition and food security. However, more attention is needed, particularly regarding the content and concentration of iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn), especially in the context of climate change (CC) impacts. To address this, various controlled field experiments were conducted, involving the cultivation of three wheat cultivars over three growing seasons at multiple locations with different soil and climate conditions under varying Fe and Zn treatments. The yield and yield attributes, including nutritional values such as nitrogen (N), Fe and Zn, from these experiments were integrated with national yield statistics from other locations to train and test different machine learning (ML) algorithms. Automated ML leveraging a large number of models, outperformed traditional ML models, enabling the training and testing of numerous models, and achieving robust predictions of grain yield (GY) (R 2 &gt; 0.78), N (R 2 &gt; 0.75), Fe (R 2 &gt; 0.71) and Zn (R 2 &gt; 0.71) through a stacked ensemble of all models. The ensemble model predicted GY, N, Fe, and Zn at spatial explicit in the mid-century (2020–2050) using three Global Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, and MRI-ESM2-0 under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) specifically SSP2-45 and SSP5-85, from the downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. Averaged across different GCMs and SSPs, CC is projected to increase wheat yield by 4.5%, and protein concentration by 0.8% with high variability. However, it is expected to decrease Fe concentration by 5.5%, and Zn concentration by 4.5% in the mid-century (2020–2050) relative to the historical period (1980–2010). Positive impacts of CC on wheat yield encountered by negative impacts on nutritional concentrations, further exacerbating challenges related to food security and nutrition.

Remote Prediction of Soybean Yield Using UAV-Based Hyperspectral Imaging and Machine Learning Models

Early soybean yield estimation has become a fundamental tool for market policy and food security. Considering a heterogeneous crop, this study investigates the spatial and spectral variability in soybean canopy reflectance to achieve grain yield estimation. Besides allowing crop mapping, remote sensing data also provide spectral evidence that can be used as a priori knowledge to guide sample collection for prediction models. In this context, this study proposes a sampling design method that distributes sample plots based on the spatial and spectral variability in vegetation spectral indices observed in the field. Random forest (RF) and multiple linear regression (MLR) approaches were applied to a set of spectral bands and six vegetation indices to assess their contributions to the soybean yield estimates. Experiments were conducted with a hyperspectral sensor of 25 contiguous spectral bands, ranging from 500 to 900 nm, carried by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to collect images during the R5 soybean growth stage. The tests showed that spectral indices specially designed from some bands could be adopted instead of using multiple bands with MLR. However, the best result was obtained with RF using spectral bands and the height attribute extracted from the photogrammetric height model. In this case, Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.91. The difference between the grain yield productivity estimated with the RF model and the weight collected at harvest was 1.5%, indicating high accuracy for yield prediction.

Field scale wheat yield prediction using ensemble machine learning techniques

Wheat is crucial for global food security and plays significant role in achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger). In India, wheat accounts for 33.5 % of total cereal production. Accurate and cost effective yield predictions are essential for maintaining food security. Wheat yield forecasting is influenced by various factors, such as genotype and environmental conditions. Among these, the effect of morpho-physiological traits in the field is important for predicting yield but hasn't been studied much using ensemble machine learning methods. This study aims to bridge this gap by evaluating 29 morpho-physiological traits to predict site specific wheat yield. Big data framework was used to develop and refine several ensemble machine learning models based on field trial datasets. The developed models are optimized to reduce errors and prevent overfitting and underfitting, boosting their predictive precision. Each model's efficiency was evaluated using performance metrics such as mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, R2, and overall accuracy. The ensemble model, which combines random forest (RF) and artificial neural networks (ANN), demonstrated better performance by achieving a mean absolute percentage error of 4.65 %, and R2 value of 98.48 % and 98.18 % accuracy on test data.Our results demonstrate that ensemble models combining RF with support vector regression (SVR) outperformed individual models such as RF, SVR, ANN, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). These findings are a promising step towards future research focused on creating more advanced ensemble methods with finely tuned hyperparameters for improving the accuracy of large-scale wheat yield prediction.