5-year Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research Articles

External Validation of aMAP Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Score in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis Receiving ETV or TDF Therapy.

Background and Aim: A prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in patients with chronic liver diseases, based on age, male sex, albumin-bilirubin, and platelets (aMAP), has been previously reported. We validated the aMAP score and compared its performance to those of other risk scores in an independent at-risk cohort.Methods: Treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B-related compensated cirrhosis who received entecavir or tenofovir monotherapy for at least 12 months were enrolled in this study. The performances of the aMAP and other HCC risk scores were assessed using Harrell's c-index, and predefined cut-off values were evaluated using survival analysis.Results: Of the 1,042 patients, 131 (12.6%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 41 months. The aMAP score provided the highest Harrell's c-index (0.724), followed by CAMD (0.719), mPAGE-B (0.719), and PAGE-B (0.695). The 5-year cumulative HCC probabilities were 2.9% for patients with a low aMAP score (<50), 11.2% for patients with an intermediate aMAP score (50–60), and 27.9% for patients with a high aMAP score (>60). Using both aMAP and mPAGE-B, 11.6% of patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 98.2% for not developing HCC within 5 years. Patients with aMAP >60 and diabetes exhibited an extremely high risk of HCC, with a cumulative incidence of 49.3% at 5 years. The predictive performance of aMAP with a reassessment at 1 year after the initiation of antiviral therapy outperformed the predictive performance of aMAP at enrollment.Conclusions: The aMAP score accurately predicted the risk of HCC in at-risk patients with compensated cirrhosis undergoing antiviral therapy. A combination of the aMAP score and diabetes status could further stratify the risk of HCC.

Efficacy of entecavir versus tenofovir in preventing hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B with maintained virologic response.

Several studies suggested that efficacy of tenofovir in reducing the risk of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) might be better than that of entecavir. It remains unknown whether a change in therapy can further reduce the risk of HCC in patients receiving entecavir therapy and achieved goal of antiviral therapy, a maintained undetectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level in the serum. A total of 1336 treatment-naïve chronic HBV mono-infected adult patients, who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment and achieved a maintained virologic response during follow-up were analysed. During a median 4.4years of follow-up (range, 1.0-7.4years) after achieving virologic response, 99 patients developed HCC. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rate was 7.3% and 6.3% for the entecavir and tenofovir groups, respectively, with similar risk of HCC between the two groups (adjusted HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.52-1.29; p=0.3). The risk of HCC was similar in the propensity score-matched cohort (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.68-1.52; p=0.94) and inverse probability treatment weighting analysis (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.74-1.66; p=0.62). In the subgroup analysis, HCC risk was similar between the two drugs in both patients with and without cirrhosis. In patients showing maintained virologic response, no difference in the risk of HCC between entecavir and tenofovir was observed. This indicates entecavir might be as effective as tenofovir in the prevention of HCC among those patients and suggest that a change in therapy in anticipation of further reducing the risk of HCC might not be necessary for patients receiving entecavir and showing virologic response.

Evaluation of ethnic influence in the application of a hepatocellular carcinoma predictive model for chronic hepatitis C.

Currently, there is no well-established algorithm predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in untreated hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients. We aimed to validate an algorithm (risk evaluation of viral load elevation and associated liver disease/HCV [REVEAL-HCV]: age, AST, ALT, HCV RNA, HCV genotype, and cirrhosis) developed in Taiwanese patients. We analyzed 1381 (50.1% White, 14.7% Hispanic, 13.8% Asian of diverse origin, and 7.8% African American) adult treatment-naïve HCV patients (no viral co-infection, no HCC within 6 months) at 4 U.S. and one Hong Kong centers (11/1994-10/2017). Compared to the non-Asian cohort, the Asian cohort had a higher percentage of patients in the low-risk group (46.1% vs. 26.1%) and a lower percentage in the high-risk group (12.0% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.01). Overall, 5-year HCC incidence were 1.75%, 4.71%, and 24.4% for low, medium, and high-risk patients, respectively (p < 0.0001). For the overall cohort, area under receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for HCC prediction were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.93), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.75-0.88), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.77-0.89) for 1-, 3-, and 5-year HCC risk, respectively. There was a slightly lower AUROC for Asians compared to the non-Asian cohort at 3 years (0.75 vs. 0.83) and 5 years (0.78 vs. 0.84), though this was not statistically significant. In multivariable analysis, we found male sex, presence of metabolic syndrome as well as the risk score categories to be independently associated with HCC but not ethnicity. The REVEAL-HCV risk score has good validity for both Asian and non-Asian populations. Further studies should consider additional factors, such as sex, metabolic syndrome, and treatment status.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen predicts disease progression and hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B e antigen-negative chronic hepatitis B patients.

The serum hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is considered a surrogate marker of the amount and activity of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA. This study aims to investigate the virological characteristics of HBcrAg in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and to reveal the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk factors of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients. Hepatitis B core-related antigen was measured in 245 naive CHB patients before receiving nucleoside/nucleotide analog (NA) therapy. All patients were receiving NA (entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and tenofovir alafenamide) continuously for more than 1year until the end of follow-up, and they did not have a history of HCC. Hepatitis B viral status was compared between 106 HBeAg-positive and 139 HBeAg-negative patients. Median HBcrAg levels were significantly higher in HBeAg-positive patients than in HBeAg-negative patients (>6.8 vs 3.7log U/mL, P<0.01). In HBeAg-negative patients, higher HBcrAg levels were associated with cirrhosis (119 chronic hepatitis/20 cirrhosis=3.5/4.7log U/mL, P=0.03) and higher serum hepatitis B virus DNA. During a median follow-up of 5.28 (1.03-12.0) years, the 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rate was 5.4% in the HBeAg-negative cohort. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, higher HBcrAg levels at 1year were independent predictive factors for HCC development in HBeAg-negative patients who received NA therapy (cutoff value, 4.1log U/mL; hazard ratio, 6.749; 95% confidence interval, 1.334-34.15, P<0.01) and even in non-cirrhosis patients. Hepatitis B core-related antigen was useful for understanding disease progression in CHB patients and for stratifying the risk for carcinogenesis in HBeAg-negative patients receiving NA therapy.

Impact of cirrhosis aetiology on incidence and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed during surveillance

Background & AimsIn this study we aimed to analyse the impact of the aetiology of cirrhosis on the incidence, characteristics and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosed during a surveillance program.MethodsIndividual data from a randomized trial and 2 prospective cohorts of patients with compensated histologically proven cirrhosis recruited between 2000 and 2016 were pooled. The influence of cirrhosis aetiology on survival after HCC detection was assessed using multivariable regression models.ResultsAmong 3,533 patients (1,926 virus [VIR], 1,167 alcohol [ALC], 440 combined [MIX]), 431 were diagnosed with HCC after a median follow-up of 57.1 months. The 5-year HCC incidence was lowest in ALC (VIR 12.6%, ALC 9.1%, MIX 14.3%, p = 0.04). At the time of diagnosis, tumour burden and Child-Pugh score were comparable across aetiology groups, but early BCLC stages (0/A) were significantly less frequent in ALC (VIR 80%, ALC 37%, MIX 72%) as a result of worse ECOG performance status. However, similar access to first-line curative HCC treatment was reported across aetiology groups (p = 0.68). Median survival after HCC diagnosis was significantly reduced in ALC (VIR 39, ALC 21, MIX 34 months, p = 0.02). However, when adjusting for tumour size, ECOG and Child-Pugh score, the aetiology of the underlying cirrhosis no longer had a significant impact.ConclusionCompared to patients with virus-related cirrhosis, patients with alcohol-related compensated cirrhosis enrolled in a surveillance program have: i) the lowest 5-year HCC incidence; ii) worse overall prognosis, mostly driven by a poor general condition, despite similar access to first-line curative treatment.Lay summaryIt has been suggested that early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be futile in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis. By comparing outcomes in more than 3,000 patients with compensated cirrhosis included in surveillance programs, this study suggests that HCC surveillance enables early diagnosis in most patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis despite a higher competing risk of death in these patients. We also report similar access to first-line curative HCC treatment in these patients compared to those with viral cirrhosis, despite higher rates of comorbidities and impaired liver function. Following HCC detection, the later parameters were major drivers of death irrespective of the cause of cirrhosis.RegistrationCHC2000 (NCT00190385) and CIRRAL (NCT01213927) cohorts were registered at ClinicalTrials.gov and the full protocols are available at the following links (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00190385) and https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01213927, respectively). The full CirVir protocol is available via the ANRS Web site (http://anrs.fr).

Hepatocellular carcinoma and the risk of de novo malignancies after liver transplantation - a multicenter cohort study.

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are at high risk of second primary malignancies. As HCC has become the leading indication of liver transplant (LT), the aim of this study was to investigate whether the presence of HCC before LT could influence the onset of de novo malignancies (DNM). A cohort study was conducted on 2653 LT recipients. Hazard ratios (HR) of DNM development for patients transplanted for HCC (HCC patients) were compared with those of patients without any previous malignancy (non-HCC patients). All models were adjusted for sex, age, calendar year at transplant, and liver disease etiology. Throughout 17903 person-years, 6.6% of HCC patients and 7.4% of non-HCC patients developed DNM (202 cases). The median time from LT to first DNM diagnosis was shorter for solid tumors in HCC patients (2.7 vs 4.5years for HCC and non-HCC patients, respectively, P<0.01). HCC patients were at a higher risk of bladder cancer and skin melanoma. There were no differences in cumulative DNM-specific mortality by HCC status. This study suggests that primary HCC could be a risk factor for DNM in LT recipients, allowing for risk stratification and screening individualization.

Liver histological status and clinic outcome in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B with low viral load

Objective: To retrospectively analyze the serological, virological, biochemical, liver histological status and clinical outcomes in HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with low HBV viral load, and to explore the necessity of antiviral therapy for these patients. Methods: A total of 99 HBeAg-negative CHB patients with HBV DNA level < 4 lg copies/ml who performed liver biopsy at the baseline were enrolled from the follow-up cohort. Among them, 23 cases received the second liver biopsy during follow-up. The relationships among the degree of inflammation and fibrosis of liver tissues, the status of HBsAg and HBcAg, age, gender, family history, HBV DNA load, serological markers and other indicators were analyzed. The pathological differences between two liver biopsy examinations were compared. The effect of nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) treatment on patient's clinical outcomes were analyzed. For multivariate analysis, a binary logistic regression model was performed. Log-rank test was used to compare the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in NAs-treated and non-NA streated patients. Results: Baseline liver histology status showed that 58.6% (58/99) patients had obvious liver tissue damage in their baseline liver tissue pathology (G≥2 and /or S≥2). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that a liver cirrhosis (LC) family history, a HBsAg-positive family history, baseline alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase levels were positively correlated factors for liver tissue damage. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a LC family history was the main risk factor for liver tissue damage. Twenty-three cases had received a second liver biopsy after an interval of 4.5 years. In 10 untreated cases, the second liver biopsy results showed the rate of obvious liver tissue damage (G≥2 and/ or S≥2) increased from 50.0% to 90.0%. In the other 13 cases who received NAs treatment, the second liver biopsy showed improvement in liver histology, and the rate of obvious liver tissue damage decreased from 61.5% to 46.2%. The 5-year HCC cumulative incidence in non-NAs-treated patients was significantly higher than that of in NAs-treated patients (17.7% vs. 3.8%, P = 0.046). Conclusion: For most HBeAg-negative CHB patients with low viral load, liver tissue pathology result suggests that it meets the indications for antiviral therapy, especially in patients with a LC familial history. Without antiviral therapy, liver tissue damage for these patients will progressively worse with the high incidence of HCC. Therefore, it is suggested that antiviral therapy should be started as soon as possible for the HBeAg-negative CHB patients with low viral load regardless of the alanine aminotransferase level, especially in patients over 30 years-old with a LC or HCC family history.

Additional more factors should be included in predicting risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection

With great interest, we carefully read the study conducted by Chang et al. in a recent issue of the Journal of Viral Hepatitis.1 The authors validated the accuracy for 3- and 5-year hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) predictions by age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis (AASL), RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and the AASL score showed the highest predictive accuracy. However, some issues should be interpreted cautiously in light of the following.

Ambulatory end-stage liver disease in Ghana; patient profile and utility of alpha fetoprotein and aspartate aminotransferase: platelet ratio index

BackgroundEnd-stage liver disease (ESLD) is a major burden on public health, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where hepatitis B virus (HBV) is an important risk factor. We aimed to describe clinical characteristics of ESLD from cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the performance of aspartate aminotransferase (AST)—platelet ratio index (APRI) and alpha fetoprotein (AFP) in Ghana.MethodsWe performed an observational cross-sectional study in outpatient hepatology clinics at three teaching hospitals in Ghana, West Africa. One hundred and forty-one HCC, 216 cirrhosis and 218 chronic HBV patients were recruited by convenience sampling. Sociodemographic, history and examination, laboratory, and disease staging information were shown using descriptive statistics. Performance of the APRI score in diagnosis of cirrhosis and AFP in the diagnosis of HCC was determined using AUROC analysis.ResultsMedian age at presentation was 44 years for HCC and 46 years for cirrhosis. HBV was found in 69.5% of HCC and 47.2% of cirrhosis cases, and HCV in 6.4% and 3.7% respectively. APRI cut-off of 2 had sensitivity of 45.4% and specificity of 95% in diagnosis of cirrhosis, and cut-off of 1 had sensitivity of 75.9% and specificity of 89%. AUC of AFP was 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.94) in diagnosis of HCC. Low monthly income was associated with lower odds of undertaking AFP. Thirty one percent of cirrhotic persons were Child–Pugh C, and 67.9% of HCC patients had advanced or terminal disease at presentation.ConclusionsOur findings emphasize the young age of ESLD patients in Ghana and the advanced nature at presentation. It highlights shortcomings in surveillance and the need for policies to address the burden and improve outcomes in Ghana.

From the Editor's Desk…

From the Editor's Desk…

Serum Myostatin Predicts the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Alcoholic Cirrhosis: A Multicenter Study

Simple SummarySarcopenia is prevalent in patients with liver cirrhosis. It has been well-known that cirrhotic patients with sarcopenia had poorer survival as compared to those without it, and expression of serum myostatin is associated with sarcopenia. In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether serum myostatin is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis or not. We found that serum myostatin is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma development in a large cohort of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Among patients with similar residual liver function or similar risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma using other models, higher serum myostatin was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition, patients with more advanced hepatic fibrosis had significantly higher serum myostatin than those with less advanced hepatic fibrosis. Thus, serum myostatin as a prognostic marker can be useful to identify high-risk patients who need stringent surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.Background and Aim: Previous studies reported that serum myostatin is associated with sarcopenia. We aimed to elucidate the association between serum myostatin levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC). Methods: This retrospective, multicenter study assessed 1077 Asian ALC patients enrolled from 2007 to 2017. The primary endpoint was the development of HCC within 5 years. Cox proportional hazards model analyses were used to assess the association of serum myostatin levels and HCC development. The time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of serum myostatin for 5-year HCC development were calculated. Serum myostatin levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with samples collected on the index date. Results: During a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 6.7% in the total population. The median level of serum myostatin was 3.3 ng/mL (interquartile, 2.1–5.2 ng/mL). The AUROC of serum myostatin for 5-year HCC development was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76–0.81). In Cox proportional hazards model analyses, age, gender, platelet counts, and serum myostatin levels were independent risk factors for HCC development (adjusted hazard ratios [HRs] of age, male gender, platelet counts, and serum myostatin: 1.03, 2.79, 0.996, 1.18, respectively; all p < 0.05). Patients with high myostatin levels had a significantly higher risk of 5-year HCC development than those with low myostatin levels (HR 7.53, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Higher serum myostatin levels were significantly associated with a higher risk of developing HCC in ALC patients, which could identify high-risk patients who need stringent surveillance.

Validation of risk prediction scores for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir or tenofovir.

Several prediction scores for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are available. We validated the predictive accuracy of age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis (AASL), RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). Between 2007 and 2014, 3171 patients were recruited (1645, ETV; 1517, TDF). The predictive accuracy of each prediction score was assessed. The mean age of the study population (1977 men; 1194 women) was 48.8years. Liver cirrhosis was present in 1040 (32.8%) patients. During follow-up (median, 58.2months), 280 (8.8%) patients developed HCC; these patients were significantly older; more likely to be male; had significantly higher proportions of liver cirrhosis, hypertension and diabetes; and had significantly higher values for the four risk scores than those who did not develop HCC (all P<.05). Older age (hazard ratio [HR]=1.048), male sex (HR=2.142), liver cirrhosis (HR=3.144) and prolonged prothrombin time (HR=2.589) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC (all P<.05), whereas a higher platelet count (HR=0.996) was independently associated with a decreased risk of HCC (P<.05). The predictive accuracy of AASL score was the highest for 3- and 5-year HCC predictions (areas under the curve [AUCs]=0.818 and 0.816, respectively), followed by RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores (AUC=0.780-0.815 and 0.769-0.814, respectively). In conclusion, four HCC prediction scores were assessed in Korean CHB patients treated with ETV or TDF. The AASL score showed the highest predictive accuracy.

Preoperative prediction score of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in living donor liver transplantation: Validation of SNAPP score developed at Asan Medical Center

Preoperative prediction score of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in living donor liver transplantation: Validation of SNAPP score developed at Asan Medical Center

AMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n= 13,686). We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n= 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n= 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n= 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity.

Hangzhou criteria as downstaging criteria in hepatocellular carcinoma before liver transplantation: A multicenter study from China

The downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been confirmed to benefit liver transplantation (LT) patients whose tumors are beyond the transplantation criteria. Milan criteria (MC), a tumor size and number-based assessment, is currently used as the endpoint in these patients. However, many studies believe that tumor biological behavior should be added to the evaluation criteria for downstaging efficacy. Hence, this study aimed to explore the feasibility of Hangzhou criteria (HC), which introduced tumor grading and alpha-fetoprotein in addition to tumor size and number, as an endpoint of downstaging. We performed a multicenter and retrospective study of 206 patients accepted locoregional therapy (LRT) as downstaging/bridge treatment prior to LT in three centers of China. Recipients were divided into four groups: failed downstaging to the HC (group A, n=46), successful downstaging to the HC (group B, n=30), remained within the HC all the time (group C, n=113), and tumor progressed (group D, n=17). The 3-year HCC recurrence probabilities of groups B and C were not significantly different (10.3% vs. 11.6%, P=0.87). The HCC recurrent rate was significantly higher in group A (52.3%) compared with that in group B/C (P < 0.05). Seven patients (7/76, 9.2%) whose tumor exceeded the the HC were successfully downstaged to the MC, and 39.5% (30/76) to the the HC. In group B, 23 patients remained beyond the MC and their survivals were as well as those of patients within the MC. Compared to the MC, HC downstaging criteria can give more HCC patients access to LT and furthermore, the outcome of these patients is the same as those matching MC downstaging criteria. Hangzhou downstaging criteria therefore is applicable in clinical practice.

Similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma during long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B

A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort. We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n= 772) or TDF (n= 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p= 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p= 0.038). In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF. In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis.

1605-P: Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Type 2 Diabetes with Cirrhosis Who Were Treated with Metformin

Several studies demonstrated an association between type 2 diabetes (T2D) and a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Metformin is widely prescribed for T2D. Metformin has been shown to prevent various cancer developments. The association of metformin use and development of HCC among T2D with cirrhosis is investigated. This study aims to determine if metformin significantly reduces the incidence of HCC in this population. T2D with cirrhosis patients from 2006 to 2014 with age 20 to 80 years were studied as a retrospective cohort. An incidence of HCC in T2D with/without metformin exposure after cirrhosis diagnosis within 5 years was determined by Chi-square test. The exposure was defined as a drug intake at the time of cirrhosis diagnosis, continuing for at least 90 days beyond the diagnosis. The 5-year disease-free survival of HCC in each group was compared using the log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier method. The total of 1,061 T2D with cirrhosis included metformin exposure (N=719) and metformin non-exposure (N=342). The overall HCC incidence was 253 (23.85%). Among patients with metformin exposure, the HCC incidence was 125 (17.39%), compared to 128 (37.42%) in non-exposure group. The development of HCC within 5 years was significantly lower in metformin exposure than in non-exposure group (RR=0.76; 95% CI:0.69-0.83; P&amp;lt;0.001). The 5-year disease-free survival of HCC with metformin exposure is greater than that of non-exposure (0.80 vs. 0.57; HR=0.42; 95% CI:0.33-0.54; p&amp;lt;0.001). Moreover, the result shows that male gender (HR=1.64; 95% CI:1.25-2.14), HbA1C≥7.5% (HR=1.30; 95% CI:1.00-1.68), HBV cirrhosis (HR=1.80; 95% CI:1.13-2.85), HCV cirrhosis (HR=2.31; 95% CI:1.43-3.74), smoking and drinking cessation ≥5 years (HR=1.78; 95% CI:1.31-2.42 and HR=1.74; 95% CI:1.27-2.38 respectively) were linked to a rising 5-year HCC incidence in T2D. Conclusion: The metformin treatment might reduce the incidence of HCC in T2D with cirrhosis during 5-years and benefit HCC prognosis. Disclosure T. Tangjarusritaratorn: None. T. Kunavisarut: None. W. Tangjittipokin: None.

On-Treatment Changes in FIB-4 and 1-Year FIB-4 Values Help Identify Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Entecavir Therapy Who Have the Lowest Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Noninvasive fibrosis indices can help stratify the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy. We investigated the predictive performance of on-treatment changes in FIB-4 (△FIB-4) and 1-year FIB-4 values (FIB-4 12M) for HCC risk in patients with CHB receiving entecavir therapy. We included 1325 NA-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir, retrospectively, from January 2007 to August 2012. A combination of △FIB-4 and FIB-4 12M was used to stratify the cumulative risk of HCC into three subgroups each in the noncirrhotic and cirrhotic subgroups with p < 0.0001 by using the log-rank test (noncirrhotic: the highest risk (n = 88): FIB-4 12M ≥ 1.58/△FIB-4 ≥ 0 (hazard ratio (HR): 40.35; 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.107–318.7; p <0.0001) and cirrhotic: the highest risk (n = 89): FIB-4 12M ≥2.88/△FIB-4 ≥0 (HR: 9.576; 95% CI: 5.033–18.22; p < 0.0001)). Patients with noncirrhotic CHB treated with entecavir who had a FIB-4 12M < 1.58 or FIB-4 12M ≥ 1.58/△FIB-4 < 0 exhibited the lowest 5-year HCC risk (0.6%). A combination of on-treatment changes in FIB-4 and 1-year FIB-4 values may help identify patients with CHB receiving entecavir therapy with the lowest risk of HCC.

Outcomes of liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in octogenarians

BackgroundThere is a dearth of information about operative outcomes in patients ≥80 years for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from Western institutions. We compare the result of HCC resections in patients <80 years vs. patients ≥80 years from our institution in the UK. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective review of all patients undergoing liver resections for HCC between 2005 and 2015. Demographics, comorbidities, morbidity, mortality and survival were compared between the two age groups. Results200 patients underwent resection for HCC in this time period. Nineteen patients were ≥80 years and 181 were <80 years. Comorbidities measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index were significantly higher in the ≥80 group (p < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in the extent of resection in the two groups. Morbidity and mortality between the <80 years and the ≥80 years group were not significantly different (morbidity 27% vs.16%; p = 0.29) (mortality 7% vs. 0%; p = 0.11). The one-year (83.4% vs. 88.2%; p = 0.83), five-year (56.3% vs. 55.8%; p = 0.83) and the overall survival rate rates (887 days vs. 1035 days; p = 0.66) were not significantly different between the groups. DiscussionLiver resection should not be precluded based on age alone; with good outcomes in patients ≥80 years justifying surgery.

Clinical utility of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in chronic hepatitis B

Several risk scores have been recently developed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We systematically assessed the performance of the available HCC risk scores. Literature search was performed to identify all published studies reporting development or external validation of HCC risk scores in CHB patients. Until March 2019, 12 scores were developed in untreated Asian and 7 scores in treated Asian (n=6) or Caucasian (n=1) patients. All scores provided significant predictions for HCC development in the derivation and validation cohorts of their original studies (c-statistic: 0.76-0.95) and usually classified patients into low, medium and high HCC risk groups. Eleven independent studies and three studies developing their own scores have validated externally some scores in Asian (GAG-HCC:5, CU-HCC:6, REACH-B:6, REACH-Bm:4, LSM-HCC:3, PAGE-B:5) or Caucasian/mixed origin patients (GAG-HCC:4, CU-HCC:4, REACH-B:4, PAGE-B:2). All scores offered acceptable predictability in almost all independent Asian cohorts (c-statistic: 0.70-0.86), but only PAGE-B and recently modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) offered good predictability in all independent Caucasian and/or Asian cohorts. Negative predictive values for 5-year HCC prediction were ≤99% (95%-99%) in most independent cohorts assessing Asian risk scores and 99%-100% in all independent cohorts (Caucasian/mixed origin:2; Asian:3) assessing PAGE-B and/or recently mPAGE-B. Direct comparison of the newest HCC risk scores in independent patient cohorts of different origin remains intriguing, although statistical associations may not be directly transferable to clinical practice. PAGE-B and recently mPAGE-B score seem to offer persistently high predictability for Caucasian and/or Asian treated patients with low HCC risk who require no surveillance.