Yarkovsky Effect Research Articles

Deep operator neural network applied to efficient computation of asteroid surface temperature and the Yarkovsky effect

Deep operator neural network applied to efficient computation of asteroid surface temperature and the Yarkovsky effect

A perturbative treatment of the Yarkovsky-driven drifts in the 2:1 mean motion resonance

Aims. Our aim is to gain a qualitative understanding as well as to perform a quantitative analysis of the interplay between the Yarkovsky effect and the Jovian 2:1 mean motion resonance under the planar elliptic restricted three-body problem. Methods. We adopted the semi-analytical perturbation method valid for arbitrary eccentricity to obtain the resonance structures inside the Jovian 2:1 resonance. We averaged the Yarkovsky force so it could be applied to the integrable approximations for the 2:1 resonance and the ν5 secular resonance. The rates of Yarkovsky-driven drifts in the action space were derived from the quasi-integrable approximations perturbed by the averaged Yarkovsky force. Pseudo-proper elements of test particles inside the 2:1 resonance were computed using N-body simulations incorporated with the Yarkovsky effect to verify the semi-analytical results. Results. In the planar elliptic restricted model, we identified two main types of systematic drifts in the action space: (Type I) for orbits not trapped in the ν5 resonance, the footprints are parallel to the resonance curve of the stable center of the 2:1 resonance; (Type II) for orbits trapped in the ν5 resonance, the footprints are parallel to the resonance curve of the stable center of the ν5 resonance. Using the semi-analytical perturbation method, a vector field in the action space corresponding to the two types of systematic drifts was derived. The Type I drift with small eccentricities and small libration amplitudes of 2:1 resonance can be modeled by a harmonic oscillator with a slowly varying parameter, for which an analytical treatment using the adiabatic invariant theory was carried out.

Asteroids discovered in the Baldone Observatory between 2017 and 2022: The orbits of asteroid 428694 Saule and 330836 Orius

Abstract We discovered 83 asteroids at the Baldone Astrophysical Observatory (MPC code 069) in 2017–2022. We studied one of the dynamically interesting Apollo (Near Earth object) observed at the Baldone Astronomical Observatory, namely 428694 Saule (2008 OS9) and the Centaur-type asteroid 330836 Orius (2009 HW77). We studied the evolution of the asteroid Saule’s rotation period, obliquity, and spin axis together with its non-gravitational parameter d a ∕ d t {\rm{d}}a/{\rm{d}}t connected with the Yarkovsky effect. Additionally, we studied the orbit of the Amor-type asteroid 2017 UW42, which has the significant non-gravitational parameter A 2 A2 .

Correction to: Analysis of Numerical Estimations of the Yarkovsky Effect Parameter and Their Comparison with an Analytical Representation on the Example of Near-Sun Asteroids

Correction to: Analysis of Numerical Estimations of the Yarkovsky Effect Parameter and Their Comparison with an Analytical Representation on the Example of Near-Sun Asteroids

Numerical Calculation and Analytic Formulas of Yarkovsky Effect Parameter of Circumsolar Asteroids

Numerical Calculation and Analytic Formulas of Yarkovsky Effect Parameter of Circumsolar Asteroids

Dynamical Characteristics of Active Asteroid 311P/PANSTARRS

311P/PANSTARRS is an active asteroid with characteristics of both asteroids and comets, and it is one of the targets of China's Tianwen-2 mission. Because of its small size of about 400 m, the Yarkovsky effect may have a significant influence on its long-term dynamics. This paper discussed the changes in the long-term motion of 311P/PANSTARRS caused by the Yarkovsky effect. By assuming different surface compositions, this simulation introduced the semi-major axis drift by propagating orbits of orbital clones. It also discusses non-gravitational effects such as close encounters, non-destructive impacts, and the YORP (Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack) effect. The study calculates the probabilities of close encounters and impacts with major planets and estimates the timescale for 311P/PANSTARRS to reach its rotational period splitting limit. The results of the simulations show that the Yarkovsky effect may cause 311P/PANSTARRS to exit from the resonance region faster when compared to a purely gravitational model. 311P/PANSTARRS will leave the current resonance region after roughly 10 Myr, and have a chance to become a Mars-crossing asteroid through ν6 secular resonance due to the diurnal Yarkovsky effect if its surface is covered by a regolith layer. It is concluded that 311P/PANSTARRS is stable at least 10 Myr time scale even if taking the Yarkovsky effect and the YORP effect into account. Furthermore, the YORP effect may not significantly affect the semi-major axis drift of 311P/PANSTARRS.

The Yarkovsky Effect on the Long-term Evolution of Binary Asteroids

We explore the Yarkovsky effect on small binary asteroids. While significant attention has been given to the binary YORP effect, the Yarkovsky effect is often overlooked. We develop an analytical model for the binary Yarkovsky effect, considering both the Yarkovsky–Schach and planetary Yarkovsky components, and verify it against thermophysical numerical simulations. We find that the Yarkovsky force could change the mutual orbit when the asteroid’s spin period is unequal to the orbital period. Our analysis predicts new evolutionary paths for binaries. For a prograde asynchronous secondary, the Yarkovsky force will migrate the satellite toward the location of the synchronous orbit on ∼100 kyr timescales, which could be faster than other synchronization processes such as YORP and tides. For retrograde secondaries, the Yarkovsky force always migrates the secondary outward, which could produce asteroid pairs with opposite spin poles. Satellites spinning faster than the Roche limit orbit period (e.g., from ∼4 hr to ∼10 hr) will migrate inward until they disrupt, reshape, or form a contact binary. We also predict a short-lived equilibrium state for asynchronous secondaries where the Yarkovsky force is balanced by tides. We provide calculations of the Yarkovsky-induced drift rate for known asynchronous binaries. If the NASA DART impact broke Dimorphos from synchronous rotation, we predict that Dimorphos’s orbit will shrink by ȧ∼7 cm yr−1, which can be measured by the Hera mission. We also speculate that the Yarkovsky force may have synchronized the Dinkinesh–Selam system after a possible merger of Selam’s two lobes.

Влияние скорости вращения и фигуры астероида на величину возмущений в его вращательной динамике при тесном сближении с Землей

By means of numerical experiments, the influence of the value of the asteroid’s own rotational velocity, orientation of the axis of rotation, and figure parameters on the magnitude of perturbations in its rotational dynamics arising during close approach to the Earth is studied. Two cases are considered: 1) asteroid (99942) Apophis with a relatively slow rotation (period ≈ 30 h) and 2) asteroid 2012 TC4, which has a fast rotation (period ≈ 12 min). It was found that in the case of asteroids with slow rotation, perturbations can be large: in the case of Apophis, when approaching the Earth in 2029, changes in the rotational period ∆P may reach tens of hours, and deviations in the orientation of the axis of rotation ∆γ — tens of degrees. For fast-rotating asteroids, the perturbations are very small: in the case of asteroid 2012 TC4 at its approach to the Earth in 2017, |∆P | < 10−5 min, |∆γ| < 0.01◦. It is shown that for asteroids with slow rotation, the uncertainty in the determination of asteroid figure parameters (moments of inertia) can lead to noticeable inaccuracies in the estimation of perturbation magnitudes. The uncertainty in the knowledge of the figure parameters of a fast-rotating asteroid practically does not affect the estimation of perturbations in its rotational dynamics. In the case of Apophis, changes in the rotational velocity and orientation of the axis of rotation during the upcoming 2029 approach to the Earth may lead to a decrease in the value of the parameter A2, which characterizes the Yarkovsky effect, to −1.5 · 10−14 a.u./d2, or to an increase up to −3.5 · 10−14 a.u./d2. Perturbations in the rotational dynamics of asteroid 2012 TC4 during its approach to the Earth in 2017 did not affect the value of parameter A2.

Rotation periods of asteroids from light curves of TESS data

Understanding the dynamical evolution of asteroids through the secular Yarkovsky effect requires the determination of many physical properties, including the rotation period. We propose a method aimed at obtaining a robust determination of the rotation period of asteroids, while avoiding the pitfalls of aliases. We applied this approach to thousands of asteroid light curves measured by the NASA mission. We developed a robust period-analysis algorithm based on a Fourier series. Our approach includes a comparison of the results from multiple orders and tests on the number of extremes to identify and reject potential aliases. We also provide the uncertainty interval for the result as well as additional periods that may be plausible. We report the rotation period for nbTenPercent asteroids within a precision of 10<!PCT!>. A comparison with the literature (whenever available) reveals a very good agreement and validates the approach presented here. Our approach also highlights cases for which the determination of the period should be considered invalid. The dataset presented here confirms the apparent small number of asteroids with a rotation between 50 and 100 h and correlated with diameter. The amplitude of the light curves is found to increase toward smaller diameters, as asteroids become less and less spherical. Finally, there is a systematic difference between the broad C and S complex in the amplitude-period, revealing the statistically lower density of C-types compared to S-type asteroids. Our approach to the determination of asteroid rotation period is based on simple concepts, yet it is nonetheless robust. It can be applied to large corpora of time series photometry, such as those extracted from exoplanet transit surveys.

MARTIANS (MARs2020, TIANwen and So on) would see more potentially hazardous asteroids than Earthlings

Abstract Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are a special subset of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that can come close to the Earth and are large enough to cause significant damage in the event of an impact. Observations and researches of Earth-PHAs have been underway for decades. Here, we extend the concept of PHAs to Mars and study the feasibility of detecting Mars-PHAs in the near future. We focus on PHAs that truly undergo close approaches with a planet (dubbed CAPHAs) and aim to compare the actual quantities of Earth-CAPHAs and Mars-CAPHAs by conducting numerical simulations incorporating the Yarkovsky effect, based on observed data of the main asteroid belt. The estimated number of Earth-CAPHAs and Mars-CAPHAs are 4675 and 16910, respectively. The occurrence frequency of Mars-CAPHAs is about 52 per year, which is 2.6 times that of Earth-CAPHAs, indicating significant potential for future Mars-based observations. Furthermore, a few Mars-CAPHAs are predicted to be observable even from Earth around the time of next Mars opposition in 2025.

Pre-impact Thermophysical Properties and the Yarkovsky Effect of NASA DART Target (65803) Didymos

The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft impacted the secondary body of the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos on 2022 September 26 and altered its orbit about the primary body. Before the DART impact, we performed visible and mid-infrared observations to constrain the pre-impact thermophysical properties of the Didymos system and to model its Yarkovsky effect. Analysis of the photometric phase curve derives a Bond albedo of 0.07 ± 0.01, and a thermophysical analysis of the mid-infrared observations derives a thermal inertia of 320 ± 70 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2 and a thermal roughness of 40° ± 3° rms slope. These properties are compatible with the ranges derived for other S-type near-Earth asteroids. Model-to-measurement comparisons of the Yarkovsky orbital drift for Didymos derives a bulk density of 2750 ± 350 kg m−3, which agrees with other independent measures based on the binary mutual orbit. This bulk density indicates that Didymos is spinning at or near its critical spin-limit at which self-gravity balances equatorial centrifugal forces. Furthermore, comparisons with the post-impact infrared observations presented in Rivkin et al. indicate no change in the thermal inertia of the Didymos system following the DART impact. Finally, orbital temperature simulations indicate that subsurface water ice is stable over geologic timescales in the polar regions if present. These findings will be investigated in more detail by the upcoming ESA Hera mission.

Influence of non-gravitational forces on the co-orbital motion

ABSTRACT In the Solar system, there exist many non-gravitational perturbations for co-orbital objects, such as the solar radiation pressure, Yarkovsky effect, and so forth. Their effects play important roles in the dynamics of co-orbital objects as they lead to long-term perturbations accumulating. The motivation of this paper is to investigate the general mechanism of the non-gravitational force on the co-orbital motion in the circular restricted three-body problem. We propose an effective method for perturbed co-orbital motions by analysing the locus of the co-orbital objects in a two-dimensional map. Several expressions derived uncover how the non-gravitational force acts on orbital parameters. Taking the Sun–Jupiter system as an example, we implement numerical computations to demonstrate the validity of our results. Numerical computation shows that most of loci of co-orbital motions are in agreement with our conclusions. Some interesting phenomena of perturbed co-orbital motion, such as the co-orbital transition and escape, are found and explained. The results obtained from this paper provide an efficient approach to analyse the evolution of perturbed co-orbital motions.

An automated procedure for the detection of the Yarkovsky effect and results from the ESA NEO Coordination Centre

Context. The measurement of the Yarkovsky effect on near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) is common practice in orbit determination today, and the number of detections will increase with the developments of new and more accurate telescopic surveys. However, the process of finding new detections and identifying spurious ones is not yet automated, and it often relies on personal judgment. Aims. We aim to introduce a more automated procedure that can search for NEA candidates to measure the Yarkovsky effect, and that can identify spurious detections. Methods. The expected semi-major axis drift on an NEA caused by the Yarkovsky effect was computed with a Monte Carlo method on a statistical model of the physical parameters of the asteroid that relies on the most recent NEA population models and data. The expected drift was used to select candidates in which the Yarkovsky effect might be detected, according to the current knowledge of their orbit and the length of their observational arc. Then, a nongravitational acceleration along the transverse direction was estimated through orbit determination for each candidate. If the detected acceleration was statistically significant, we performed a statistical test to determine whether it was compatible with the Yarkovsky effect model. Finally, we determined the dependence on an isolated tracklet. Results. Among the known NEAs, our procedure automatically found 348 detections of the Yarkovsky effect that were accepted. The results are overall compatible with the predicted trend with the inverse of the diameter, and the procedure appears to be efficient in identifying and rejecting spurious detections. This algorithm is now adopted by the ESA NEO Coordination Centre to periodically update the catalogue of NEAs with a measurable Yarkovsky effect, and the results are automatically posted on the web portal.

Measurability of the Heliocentric Momentum Enhancement from a Kinetic Impact: The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) has demonstrated the capability of successfully conducting kinetic impact-based asteroid deflection missions. The changes in the Didymos–Dimorphos mutual orbit as a result of the DART impact have already been measured. To fully assess the heliocentric outcome of deflection missions, the heliocentric momentum enhancement parameter, β ⊙, needs to be determined and disentangled from other nongravitational phenomena such as the Yarkovsky effect. Here we explore the measurability of β ⊙ resulting from DART, which we estimate simultaneously with nongravitational accelerations using a least-squares filter. Results show that successful stellar occultation measurements of the Didymos system in the second half of 2024 in addition to the ones in the 2022–2023 campaigns can achieve a statistically significant estimate of β ⊙, with an uncertainty slightly above 20% for an assumed β ⊙ = 3. Adding additional occultation measurements and pseudorange measurements from the Hera spacecraft operations at Didymos starting in 2027 decreases this relative uncertainty to under 6%. We find that pre-impact occultation observations combined with post-impact occultations would have yielded substantially higher signal-to-noise ratios on the heliocentric deflection. Additionally, pre-impact occultations would also have enabled a statistically significant β ⊙ estimate using only one additional occultation in 2023 September. Therefore, we conclude that future asteroid deflection missions would greatly benefit from both pre- and post-deflection occultation measurements to help assess the resulting orbital changes.

New Yarkovsky drift detections using astrometric observations of NEAs

The Yarkovsky drift represents the semi-major axis variation of a celestial body due to the Yarkovsky effect. This thermodynamic effect acts more significantly on bodies with a diameter between ≈10m\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\approx 10 \\,\ ext {m}$$\\end{document} and ≈30km\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\approx 30 \\,\ ext {km}$$\\end{document}. Therefore, the orbits of many minor bodies of the solar system are affected: knowing the value of the Yarkovsky drift can be crucial to accurately predict their positions, especially if the asteroids are Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and there may be a non-zero impact probability with the Earth. The direct computation of this effect is not easily achieved due to the scarce availability of NEAs physical information. Thus, the more promising method to estimate the Yarkovsky effect is through an orbital fit using seven parameters, the six orbital elements and a seventh parameter accounting for non-gravitational interactions. In this paper, we show the analysis of 1262 NEAs with Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) greater or equal 2, of which 279 have the parameter S (absolute ratio between the Yarkovsky drift and its expected value) less than 1.5 and are therefore more reliable. Among these, 91 are not present in the literature, thus represent new Yarkovsky drift detections. Furthermore, we used our results to estimate the ratio of the retrograde over prograde rotators and to validate the dependence of the Yarkovsky drift from the diameter, da/dt ≈D-1\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\approx D^{-1}$$\\end{document}.

MEGASIM: Distribution and Detection of Earth Trojan Asteroids

Using N-body simulation results from the MEGASIM data set, we present spatial distributions of Earth Trojan Asteroids and assess the detectability of the population in current and next-generation ground-based astronomical surveys. Our high-fidelity Earth Trojan Asteroid (ETA) distribution maps show never-before-seen high-resolution spatial features that evolve over timescales up to 1 Gyr. The simulation was synchronized to start times and timelines of two observational astronomy surveys: (1) the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and (2) the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). We calculate upper limits for the number of ETAs potentially observable with both the ZTF and LSST surveys. Due to the Yarkovsky Effect, we find no stable ETAs on billion-year timescales likely to be detected by any ETA survey, as no C-type or S-type ETAs (with H < 22 and H < 24, respectively) are likely to be stable on billion-year timescales, and ETAs large enough to remain stable on billion-year timescales are very rare relative to the rest of the ETA population. We find that a twilight ETA survey will not drastically increase the likelihood of individual ETA detection, but it would provide orders of magnitude more observations of select ETA populations. The null detection to date from ZTF restricts the potential ETA population to hundreds of objects larger than 100 m (at H ≈ 22), while a null detection by LSST will further restrict the ETA population to tens of objects larger than 100 m.

ASTERIA—Asteroid Thermal Inertia Analyzer

Thermal inertia estimates are available for a limited number of a few hundred objects, and the results are practically solely based on thermophysical modeling (TPM). We present a novel thermal inertia estimation method, the Asteroid Thermal Inertia Analyzer (ASTERIA). The core of the ASTERIA model is the Monte Carlo approach, based on the Yarkovsky drift detection. We validate our model on asteroid Bennu plus 10 well-characterized near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) for which a good estimation of the thermal inertia from TPM exists. The tests show that ASTERIA provides reliable results consistent with the literature values. The new method is independent of TPM, allowing an independent verification of the results. As the Yarkovsky effect is more pronounced in small asteroids, the noteworthy advantage of ASTERIA compared to TPM is the ability to work with smaller asteroids, for which TPM typically lacks input data. We used ASTERIA to estimate the thermal inertia of 38 NEAs, with 31 of them being sub-kilometer-sized asteroids. Twenty-nine objects in our sample are characterized as potentially hazardous asteroids. On the limitation side, ASTERIA is somewhat less accurate than TPM. The applicability of our model is limited to NEAs, as the Yarkovsky effect is yet to be detected in main-belt asteroids. However, we can expect a significant increase in high-quality measurements of the input parameters relevant to ASTERIA with upcoming surveys. This will surely increase the reliability of the results generated by ASTERIA and widen the model’s applicability.

The Yarkovsky effect and bulk density of near-Earth asteroids from Gaia DR3

Aims. The primary objective of this study is to utilize Gaia DR3 asteroid astrometry to detect the Yarkovsky effect, a non-gravitational acceleration that affects the orbits of small asteroids. We then computed the bulk densities for the sample of objects for which we obtained an estimation of the Yarkovsky effect. Methods. We used the version of the OrbFit software that is currently developed at the Minor Planet Center (MPC). We utilized the complete astrometric dataset from the MPC, encompassing all radar data and Gaia DR3 observations. The orbital computation was performed for a total of 446 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs; including 93 Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs)), and 54094 Inner Main Belt Asteroids (IMBAs) as well as Mars Crossing asteroids. Furthermore, we used a new validation method which involved computing the A2 (the Yarkovsky effect) using different observational arcs to observe the stability of the result. We applied the Yarkovsky effect to determine the density of the studied asteroids. Results. Thanks to Gaia DR3 we significantly constrained orbital uncertainties and determined reliable A2 values for 49 Near-Earth Asteroids, including 10 new detections and for all improvements in signal-to-noise ratio. Additionally, we successfully determined the density, along with their uncertainties, for all of these objects. However, regarding IMBAs, although we have made progress, we do not detect Yarkovsky drift for any asteroid in the main belt. Conclusions. Adding a relatively small amount of ultra-precise astrometry from Gaia DR3 to the observations from the Minor Planet Center (MPC) not only significantly improves the orbit of the asteroid but also enhances the detectability of non-gravitational parameters. Utilizing this improved dataset, we were able to determine the densities, along with their uncertainties, for the studied asteroids. Looking ahead, with the upcoming release of Gaia DR4, we anticipate even more detections for NEAs and new detections for IMBA and Mars Crossing Asteroids.

Об эффекте Ярковского в динамике астероида (99942) Апофис

The influence of changes in the rotational state of asteroid (99942) Apophis during its next approach to the Earth in 2029 on the magnitude of the Yarkovsky effect acting in the orbital dynamics of the asteroid was studied. It is shown that changes in the speed of its own rotation and the orientation of the asteroid’s rotation axis, caused by a close approach to the Earth, can lead to variations in the magnitude of the Yarkovsky effect by several times. The average rate of annual change in the semimajor axis of Apophis’s orbit, caused by the Yarkovsky effect, after approach can range from −235 to −20 m/year.

Detectability of the Yarkovsky Effect in the Main Belt

We attempt to detect a signal of Yarkovsky-related acceleration in the orbits of 134 main belt asteroids (MBAs) we observed with the University of Hawai’i 88 inch telescope, supplemented with observations publicly available from the Minor Planet Center and Gaia Data Release 3. We estimated the expected Yarkovsky acceleration values based on parameters derived through thermophysical modeling, but we were not able to find any reliable detections of Yarkovsky in our sample. Through tests with synthetic observations, however, we estimated the minimum observational arc length needed to detect the Yarkovsky effect for all of our sample MBAs, which in nearly every case exceeded the current arc length of the existing observations. We find that the Yarkovsky effect could be detectable within a couple of decades of discovery for a 100 m MBA assuming 0.″1 astrometric accuracy, which is at the size range detectable by the upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.