Yamamoto Causality Test Research Articles

Asymmetric Nexus Between Shadow Economy and Financial Instability: Does Institutional Quality Matter?

Policymakers worldwide, especially central banks, are concerned about the causes and remedies of financial instability. This study examines the asymmetric influence of the shadow economy on financial instability. Moreover, the study analyzes the moderating role of institutional quality in the shadow economy and financial instability nexus. This study used novel econometric techniques, including RALS-ADF and RALS-LM unit root tests, RALS-Fourier ARDL, NARDL, and single Fourier-Toda and Yamamoto causality tests, using yearly data from 1984-2020 for Turkey. Specifically, a positive shock to IQ declines financial instability, while a negative shock to IQ promotes it. Further, the negative shock to SE lessens the financial instability. Moreover, the negative shock to the interaction term implies that the shadow economy outweighs the IQ (depending on the level of IQ) in its effect in the case of Turkey, i.e., even if IQ increases (which usually decreases financial instability), the increasing SE has a dominant effect, and eventually upsurges financial instability. Additionally, in line with the institutional failure hypothesis, the negative shock to interaction term leads to a substantial increase in financial instability. Finally, the findings showed a one-way causality that runs from economic growth to financial instability and bidirectional causality between SE and GDP. The government should reduce shadow economic activities in the economy by enhancing IQ, which can increase government revenue and reduce financial instability.

The Impact of Nuclear Energy Consumption, Green Technological Innovation, and Trade Openness on the Sustainable Environment in the USA

Nuclear energy, renewable energy, and alternative energy sources are all crucial for sustainable green energy. However, the existing literature often needs to pay more attention to the role of nuclear energy in achieving sustainable development goals. This study analyzes the impact of green technological innovation, nuclear energy consumption, and trade openness on environmental quality in the US. The authors used the ARDL bounds to identify cointegration relationships, which is appropriate for this study’s dataset as it works well with smaller samples. They also used the Toda–Yamamoto causality test to examine causal links. The ARDL cointegration results indicate a significant long-term relationship between CO2 emissions, green technological innovation, nuclear energy consumption, and trade openness. Green technological innovation has a negative impact on CO2 emissions. Higher nuclear energy consumption is associated with lower CO2 emissions, while greater trade openness is associated with higher CO2 emissions, although these effects are less certain. The results suggest promoting green technological innovation and nuclear energy can be effective strategies for reducing CO2 emissions, while the impact of trade openness requires careful consideration due to its potential to increase emissions.

The Effects of Fossil Fuel Consumption-Related CO2 on Health Outcomes in South Africa

The consumption of fossil fuel significantly contributes to the growth of South Africa’s economy but produces carbon dioxide (CO2), which is detrimental to environmental sustainability with overall effects on health outcomes. This study sought to (i) examine the impacts of fossil energy consumption-related CO2 emissions on the under-five mortality and infant mortality rates in South Africa and (ii) analyse the causal relationship between fossil energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and mortality rates in South Africa. Linear and nonlinear ARDL bounds and the Toda–Yamamoto causality test were used to establish the equilibrium property in the long run and the causal effects of the models’ variables. Health outcome data include the under-five mortality rate (MTR1) and infant mortality rate (MTR2). Other explanatory variables include fossil energy consumption (FOC), inflation (Inf), carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), and government expenditure (GEH). It is evident from the results of linear ARDL that the first lag of the under-five mortality rate in the short run has a positive and significant impact on the under-five mortality rate in South Africa. Holding the other variables constant, the under-five mortality rate in South Africa would increase by 0.630% for every 1% increase in its lagged values. Fossil energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on the under-five mortality rate in South Africa. This significant relationship implies that a 1% increase in fossil energy consumption increases the under-five mortality rate per 1000 persons per year in South Africa by 0.418% in the short run, all things being equal. The results from the Toda–Yamamoto causality test revealed that there is no causality between the under-five mortality rate and both the consumption of fossil fuel and CO2 emissions in South Africa. The results from nonlinear ARDL presented four separate scenarios. In the short run, during increasing levels of CO2 in the initial period (lag of CO2), a 1% increase in CO2 would decrease the under-five mortality rate by 1.15%. During periods of decreasing levels of CO2 in the short run, a 1% increase in CO2 would increase the infant mortality rate by 0.66%. Again, during previous and current periods of decreasing levels of FEC, a 1% increase in FEC would increase the infant mortality rate by 0.45% and 0.32%, respectively. In the long run, during periods of increasing levels of CO2, a 1% increase in CO2 would decrease the infant mortality rate by 4.62% whereas during decreasing levels of CO2, a 1% increase in CO2 would increase the infant mortality rate by 2.3%. The risk posed by CO2 emissions and their effects on humans can then be minimised through a government expansionary policy within health programmes.

Unraveling the Link Between Environment and Economic Growth in Türkiye

This study examines the short and long-run and causative interconnections between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth, energy use, and industrialization in Türkiye using yearly data from 1971 to 2021. The paper employs the cointegration autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which indicates the presence of a long-run nexus between the variables and the estimated long-run coefficient of economic growth, energy use, and industrialization exhibit a sensitivity of -0.726, 0.563, and 0.548 changes in CO2 emissions respectively. The error-correction term is -0.563 and significant at a 1% significance level under the cointegration-ARDL model, suggesting that the deviations from the long-run equilibrium between the variables will be addressed through correction by almost 56.3% yearly. In other words, the speed of adjustment coefficients indicates that when disequilibrium occurs, adjustments returning to equilibrium take almost two years. The Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test indicates a unidirectional causal link from industrialization to CO2 emissions. This finding implies that industrialization harms environmental quality in Türkiye; therefore, Türkiye must prioritize sustainable industrial development and embrace green technologies.

Unraveling Korea’s Energy Challenge: The Consequences of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Energy Use on Economic Sustainability

This research delves into the effects of carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption on economic growth in Korea from 1980 to 2022, employing a sophisticated nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. The study unveils pivotal findings, most notably the positive association between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth, suggesting that periods of economic expansion in Korea have been accompanied by surges in emissions. Furthermore, the investigation highlights a significant, albeit asymmetrical, positive impact of primary energy consumption on economic growth, illuminating the critical role of energy in the nation’s economic trajectory. The analysis also identifies essential economic determinants—namely, the labor force, gross fixed capital formation, and net inflows of foreign direct investment—underscoring their pivotal contributions to economic proliferation. The reliability of these insights is corroborated through advanced econometric techniques, including fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares methods. A noteworthy discovery emerges from the Toda–Yamamoto causality test, revealing bidirectional Granger causality between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth, as well as between energy consumption and economic growth. Moreover, it uncovers a unidirectional causality flowing from labor, capital formation, and foreign direct investment towards economic growth. These findings elucidate the complex interplay between environmental and economic elements, highlighting the critical need for sustainable energy policies and proactive environmental stewardship in Korea. By advocating for a synthesis of economic advancement and environmental sustainability, this study presents indispensable insights for policymakers. It calls for a judicious approach to balancing Korea’s economic ambitions with its ecological responsibilities, thereby charting a sustainable path forward for the nation. Through its comprehensive analysis, this research contributes valuable perspectives to the discourse on economic development and environmental sustainability, offering guidance for Korea’s strategic planning and policy formulation.

Non-linear dynamics in finance–inequality nexus: time series evidence from the Indian economy

PurposeThe principal aim of this study is to examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality in India using the financial Kuznets curve (FKC) hypothesis.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the Toda–-Yamamoto causality test to investigate the long-run and short-run relationship and causality between financial development and income inequality. In addition, this study employs a principal component analysis (PCA) to construct a comprehensive financial development index.FindingsThe study found a long-run relationship between financial development and income inequality in India for the period under consideration. Trade is found to improve the income distribution, while inflation worsens income distribution. Moreover, the empirical results revealed a feedback causality between financial development and income inequality. The study results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial sector development indicators and income inequality, thus validating the FKC hypothesis for the Indian economy.Research limitations/implicationsThe study draws attention of the government and policymakers, urging them to focus on building a strong financial sector by improving its efficiency. This, in turn, will lead to enhanced financial stability and a reduction in income inequality. They should prioritise the development of high-quality and sustainable financial products and services to ensure the robust growth of the financial sector.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this study is the latest of its kind to empirically test the financial development on income inequality and the FKC hypothesis simultaneously for the Indian economy using financial proxy variables from financial institutions (FIs) and financial markets (FMs) for the measurement of financial depth.

Crude Oil Revenue, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: An Augmented ARDL Cointegration Approach and Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

Although there is a number of research that deals revenue- growth, institutional quality growth nexus, but little has been done to study the impact of crude oil revenue and institutional quality on economic growth in Nigeria. This study examines the impact of crude oil revenue and institutional quality on economic growth in Nigeria from 1996:Q1 to 2020:Q4. Using Augmented Autoregressive Distributive Lag bound testing approach and Toda- Yamamoto causality test. The result of the bounds test revealed that there is the long run relationship between crude oil revenue, institutional quality and economic growth in Nigeria. Furthermore, crude oil revenue has positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. The result also demonstrates that institutional quality (control of corruption) has a negative effect on economic growth in Nigeria in both short run and long run and is statistically significant. This result support ‘Grease the wheels’ hypothesis which shows that corruption has contributed to the growth of the Nigerian economy by reducing bureaucratic incompetence which create obstacles to investment and economic growth. Furthermore, the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test revealed that there is bi-directional causality between crude oil revenue, institutional quality and economic growth in Nigeria. This study recommends Government policies to improve the quality of its institutions so as to ensure efficient utilization of crude oil revenue such will boost economic growth in the country.

Can precious metals hedge the risks of Sino–US political relation?–Evidence from Toda–Yamamoto causality test in quantiles

By using a novel Granger causality test in quantiles, this study first confirms the hedging role of precious metals (i.e., gold, platinum and silver) to Sino-US political relation risks. The causality is found to be quantile-varied. Important policy implications are provided to investors, arbitrageurs, and funding managers.

Geopolitical risk and military expenditures: Evidence from the US economy

Exploring the nexus between geopolitical risk (GPR) and military expenditures (ME) has been limited during the past period. It is justified by the absence of a well-published proxy for GPR. Recently, the work of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) stimulated scholars to examine the consequences of GPR. Our paper seeks to understand the relationship between GPR and ME in the United States (US). It designs a theoretical framework and computes an econometric model using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology based on annual data (1960–2021). In addition, it uses the pairwise Toda–Yamamoto causality test. The results show that the relationship between GPR and ME is one of unidirectional causality and runs from ME to GPR in the US. Further, this relationship is statistically significant and positive in the short and long run. This finding supports our hypothesis that the USGPR is a consequence of resource allocation, i.e., ME, and can be controlled, directed, and mitigated. Thus, ME is a tool to achieve the US international hegemony’s strategic goals. From a policy implication perspective, it has been proved that GPR has broad negative consequences for various economies. Thus, moving toward cooperation and coordination with other nations instead of accumulating ME tends to support the international economy.

The effects of economic growth, energy consumption and financial development on CO2 emissions in Tunisia: ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration

This study aims to investigate the impacts of economic growth, energy consumption, and financial development on carbon emissions within the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Tunisa from 1970 to 2018. The long-run relationship is examined by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to cointegration and error correction analysis. The empirical findings show a positive monotonic relationship between real GDP and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), which means that Tunisia has not yet reached the required level of per capita income to get an inverted U-shaped EKC. The results also reveal a positive impact on both the energy consumption and the financial development, suggesting that theses control variables lead to environmental damages by polluting the atmosphere in the long run. At the same time, the paper explores causal links between the variables by referring to the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Causality Test, and it concludes that financial development and energy consumption play a vital role in the Tunisian economy to achieve sustainable environmental development. Therefore, policy makers should not only focus on economic development, but also undertake a solid green finance regulation to assume an active environmentally friendly processes, and the energy matrix should be transformed in favor of renewable energy to cope with environmental degradation and to ensure sustainable development in Tunisia.

Effect of financial inclusion and fintech on the effectiveness of Indian monetary policy: an empirical investigation

PurposeFintech plays a prominent role in augmenting the financial inclusion of the population and increasing the money supply, which calls for the intervention of monetary policy. This article is an attempt to examine the relationship between the financial inclusion, fintech and monetary policy effectiveness of the Indian economy, within the framework of wealth creation and transmission mechanism through the cost of capital.Design/methodology/approachOn the quarterly data retrieved from multiple sources, autoregressive distributed lagged regression is used to examine the relationship between different variables as explained in four set models; after which the Toda–Yamamoto causality test is employed to capture the direction of the relationship.FindingsThe study finds a positive relationship between financial inclusion, fintech and inflation taken as a proxy for Monetary Policy Effectiveness (MPE) in the short as well as in the long run. However, the relationship between fintech and inflation is negative once the cost of capital is included in the models. The causality test exhibits the uni-directional causality from fintech to MPE and MPE to financial inclusion. Bi-directional causality exists between wealth and MPE. Similarly, bank rate and interbank rate are bound by bi-directional causality.Research limitations/implicationsBeing financially included facilitates ease and boosts public access to more financial services and credit, leading to increased demand and hence inflation. Hence government and regulators need to take mindful measures to enhance the fintech development and financial inclusion to make the monetary policy effective.Originality/valueAs per the author's best knowledge, this is the first study to examine the relationship between fintech, financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness in the context of the Indian economy.

Küreselleşme Çevre Kirliliğini Artırıyor mu? Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

The effects of globalization and economic growth on environmental pollution are still a matter of debate among researchers. In the study, Turkey, which has developed its economic cooperations and trade relations with other countries and become globalized after World War II, which defined export-oriented growth as its target, and which has a carbon-dense economy, is being handled. In the study, the effects of the variables of globalization, primary energy consumption, trade openness, urbanization and economic growth on environmental pollution (CO2) are tested econometrically, by using annual data of Turkey between 1970-2020. During testing the relations between variables, ARDL method has been used. According to the results, both short-run and long-run relations have been observed between variables, and coefficients have been found statistically significant. It is resulted in the model that independent variables of energy consumption, urbanization and economic growth increase the dependent variable-environmental pollution. Toda- Yamamoto causality test has been applied which is preferred at most in situations that ARDL method is practised. According to causality test results, causality relations have been found between variables. In this context, suggestions are made to policy makers in order to find solutions and take cautions for environmental pollution which has a great importance both for natural and economic life.

The relationship between inbound tourism and economic growth: Case of Botswana

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between inbound tourism expansion and economic growth in Botswana, employing time series data from 1988 to 2019. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests and Toda and Yamamoto causality test were utilized for cointegration and direction of causality analyses, respectively. The study findings suggest and validate a tourism‐led growth hypothesis (TLGH) both in the long and short run. However, inbound tourism expansion has a modest impact on the country's economic growth, which causes concern and need for improvement. Therefore, the study suggests that there should be strengthening and expediting of tourism product diversification for enhanced tourism experiences and tourist spending. The tourism sector should be restructured to curb high economic and financial leakages, create strong linkages with other sectors, and adopt a mixed‐price model to promote domestic tourism and local beneficiation.

An Understanding of How GDP, Unemployment and Inflation Interact and Change across Time and Frequency

The main aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between the three pillars of the economy: unemployment, inflation, and GDP in Ethiopia using the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) analysis, the multivariate Student-t generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The dynamics between the three indicators were also investigated using the Toda–Yamamoto (TY) causality test. The empirical findings from the XWT method suggest a relationship between unemployment, inflation, and GDP, though the relationship varies over time and frequency. The estimation results from the multivariate Student-t GAS model show that the correlation between unemployment (overall, male, female, and youth) and inflation is highly significant, indicating that the correlation is dynamic. A dynamic relationship exists between GDP and unemployment, except for females and young people. The ARDL approach’s findings showed that unemployment significantly negatively impacted GDP. However, it was found that inflation significantly increased GDP. The general conclusion drawn from this study’s findings is that unemployment significantly affects GDP and inflation. Therefore, the government should aggressively implement policies to reduce unemployment, especially youth unemployment. Additionally, the administration must rehabilitate the country’s badly damaged economy and formalize a lasting cessation of hostilities between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Patents on environmental technologies and environmental degradation in a Scandinavian Country: Evidence from novel Fourier‐based estimators

Environmental deterioration is a substantial hazard to sustainable development. To add new dimensions to the discussion. This study aims to consider the impact of patents on environmental technology and environmental degradation in Iceland, along with other indicators, such as economic growth, primary energy consumption (PEC) and trade openness. This effect has not been comprehensively examined in the case of Iceland's economy. To this end, the study adopted novel econometric Fourier‐based estimators. The Fourier‐augmented Dickey–Fuller (F‐ADF) unit root tests, Fourier‐autoregressive distributive lag (F‐ARDL) cointegration test, F‐ARDL for long run estimation, and the Fourier‐Toda and Yamamoto (Fourier TY) causality test to determine the impact of explanatory and control indicators on production‐based CO2 emissions for the period 1995Q1 to 2019Q4. The findings revealed the impact of environmental technology and trade openness is negative and mitigates production‐based CO2 emissions and increases environmental sustainability in Iceland. In contrast, economic growth and PEC were found to have harmful and positive influences on production‐based CO2 emissions and increases environmental deterioration in the region. In addition, the Fourier TY causality test suggests unidirectional causality between these indicators in Iceland and the outcome further confirms that environmental technology and trade openness are vital for decreasing production‐based CO2 emissions in Iceland. Thus, the study findings benefit policymakers in adopting green innovation activities that increase sustainable energy resources and minimize the detrimental effects of a boost in economic activities in Iceland for sustainable development.

Nexus between environmental sustainability, good governance, financial inclusion, and tourism development in Bangladesh: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric investigation

Over the past decade, tourism’s contribution to economic Section progress has emerged as an alternative avenue for socio-economic development, especially in the productive economy with natural beauty. On the other hand, the potential effects of tourism on the environment have also been unveiled in the literature, along with macroeconomic misbehavior due to erratic environmental changes. However, the study’s impetus is to inspect the reaction of tourism contribution to Bangladesh’s economy from 1991–2019 with ecological sustainability, good governance, and financial inclusion in the empirical assessment. With the implementation of both linear and non-linear frameworks, the present study has explored the elasticities of core explanatory variables on explained variables; for directional causality, the novel Fourier Toda and Yamamoto causality test has been executed. According to the combined cointegration test, Bangladesh has a long-run association between environmental sustainability, good governance, financial inclusion, and tourism development. Inferring from long-run symmetric and asymmetric cointegration, the test statistics revealed statistically significant at a 1% level, suggesting the long-run relations in the established empirical model. Considering the linear autoregressive disoriented lagged, the study established a negative and statistically significant linkage between environmental sustainably and tourism contribution, suggesting that the excessive inflows of carbon emission that environmental degradation dwindles the progress of tourism contribution. Whereas a positive and statistically significant influence runs from good governance and financial inclusion to tourism development, the suggestion of easy access to financial services and effective institutional activities prompts tourism activities, especially in the long-run. The asymmetric investigation established non-linearity in the empirical model for the long and short-run. In terms of asymmetric coefficients, the study unveiled the positive and negative shocks of environmental sustainability exposed negatively and statistically significant. In contrast, the asymmetric shocks of financial inclusion and good governance established positive and statistically substantial Bangladesh tourism development in the long and short-run. The directional causality assessment revealed bidirectional causality running between explanatory variables to tourism development.

The Relationship between Geothermal Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth in Geothermal Consumer Countries: Evidence from Panel Fourier Causality Test

This paper investigates the relationship between geothermal energy consumption, economic growth, and foreign direct investments in countries where geothermal energy production is possible. Panel Fourier Granger causality and panel Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality tests (2020–2021) were applied, which can take into account smooth transitional structural breaks with trigonometric functions using quarterly data for the period 2016 Q1–2020 Q3. Data were obtained from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and the OECD official website. According to the results obtained based on panels, there is one-way causality from economic growth to geothermal energy and one-way causality from geothermal energy consumption to foreign direct investments. The results obtained based on individual countries indicate that one-way causality from foreign direct investment to geothermal energy consumption was found for Mexico and Portugal, and one-way causality from geothermal energy consumption to economic growth was found for Italy and Mexico. On the other hand, causality from economic growth to geothermal energy consumption was observed for Germany, Japan, and USA. No significant results were found for Turkey and New Zealand, and it is understood that the macroeconomic structures of these countries are not affected by geothermal energy. The difference in the results reveals that the application recommendations on this subject should also be different.

IMPACT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS PRICE CHANGES ON PRICES OF FOOD ITEMS IN THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY

There seems to be disequilibrium between food items and petroleum price changes in Nigeria. Every petroleum price change is followed by a rise in the prices of food items and increased poverty. This study therefore examines the impact of petroleum product price changes on the prices of food items in the Nigerian economy. Annual time series data from 1991 to 2021 are employed and the study adopt ARDL approach to determine the long-run and short-run relationship between the price of premium motor spirits and the price of food items in Nigeria. However, as it is reported by the unit root test there is a mixture of 1(0) and 1(1) order of cointegration. With these results, it is more suitable to apply the ARDL approach. The results show that the price of premium motor spirit has a positive and significant impact on food items during the short run but in the long run, the prices of premium motor spirits have a positive and insignificant impact on the food items in Nigeria. The results of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality tests show that there is a unidirectional causality running from the price of food items to the price of premium motor spirit and from the exchange rate to the price of food items. Therefore, the government should implement policies that encourage agricultural productivity which has great potential of boosting food supply so as to reduce the price of food items across the country. This way, timely increases in petroleum prices would generate more revenue without inflationary trends in food items.

Innovation-Led FDI Sustainability: Clarifying the Nexus between Financial Innovation, Technological Innovation, Environmental Innovation, and FDI in the BRIC Nations

Spatial adequacy and capital formation are impactful macro factors in achieving economic sustainability; therefore, offering a conducive ambiance for foreign investors entices them to the technology and capital mobilization in the host economy. The purpose of the study is to highlight the nexus of the innovation-led FDI in BRIC nations from 1990–2019. The study has implemented several econometric techniques to establish the empirical nexus, including a unit root test with a structural break, a combined cointegration test, an augmented autoregressive distributed lagged, a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lagged and the Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality test. The structural break test divulged one break year in the data set, and the study incorporated the structural break effects in line with the explained variable. The long run association between the explanatory explained and the control variables has been unveiled with the test statistics of the combined cointegration. Furthermore, the long run cointegration in the empirical equation has been found in the linear and nonlinear assessment. In terms of the symmetric investigation, the coefficient of innovation, that is, TI, FI, and EI on FDI, were revealed to be positive and statistically significant at a 1% level, suggesting the innovation culture boosts the inflows of the FDI in the economy, both in the long run and short run. Furthermore, the asymmetric association has been confirmed by implementing the standard Wald test with the null of symmetry in the long and short runs. Inferring to the asymmetric coefficients, it is apparent that the positive and negative shocks of TI, FI and EI have established a positive tie to FDI, which is significant at a 1% level. According to the elasticities of the asymmetric shocks, the positive innovation disclosed a more prominent impact than the negative innovation on the FDI inflows. Thus this study advocated for ensuring a conducive innovation environment by mobilizing economic resources. Finally, the causality test documented the feedback hypothesis to explain the causal association between technological innovation and FDI and environmental innovation and FDI.

The Relationship between Health Expenditures and Economic Growth in EU Countries: Empirical Evidence Using Panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test and Regression Models.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of health expenditures on economic growth in the period 2000-2019 in 27 European Union (EU) countries. First, the causality relationship between the variables was analyzed using the panel Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality test. The findings demonstrate a bidirectional causality relationship between health expenditures and economic growth on a panel basis. Secondly, the effects of health expenditures on economic growth were examined using the Random Forest Method for the panel and then for each country. According to the Random Forest Method, health expenditures positively affected economic growth, but on the country basis, the effect was different. Then, government health expenditures, private health expenditures, and out-of-pocket expenditures were used, and these three variables were ranked in order of importance in terms of their effects on growth using the Random Forest Method. Accordingly, government health expenditures were the most important variable for economic growth. Finally, Support Vector Regression, Gaussian Process Regression, and Decision Tree Regression models were designed for the simulation of the data used in this study, and the performances of the designed models were analyzed.