We introduce in this paper a class of constraints for describing how an XML document can evolve, namely XML update constraints. For these constraints, we study the implication problem, giving algorithms and complexity results for constraints of varying expressive power. Besides classical constraint implication, we also consider an instance-based approach in which we take into account data. More precisely, we study implication with respect to a current tree instance, resulting from a series of unknown updates. The main motivation of our work is reasoning about data integrity under update restrictions in contexts where owners may lose control over their data, such as in publishing or exchange.