World Economy Research Articles

Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions: A macroeconomic approach using the GVAR

AbstractWe analyzed the relationship between economic variables, Amazon deforestation, and CO2 emissions in Brazil. We used a macroeconomic approach of a system of open economies (global vector autoregressive [GVAR]). We constructed the international economy using 34 countries, representing 77% of the world GDP and 80% of world CO2 emissions. GVAR allows us to simulate the world economy, capture spillover effects, incorporate the externality of gas emissions, treating Brazil as a small open economy, and including trade integration in the analysis. We found that domestic and external shocks affect Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions; the principal external shock is the Chinese one, followed by the European and the US shocks. China, directly and indirectly, affects CO2 emissions and deforestation in Brazil through two channels (exchange rates and policy rates). The estimates showed that Brazilian currency and commodity prices are relevant for deforestation, while industrial production is for gas emissions. Other results are that (i) the Brazilian economy affects CO2 emissions in Latin America (and the principal influence of China is on Asia), and (ii) the Chinese shock loses importance when using bilateral trade in 1999–2001, when China was not a fundamental trade partner of Brazil. Alternative model configurations demonstrate that soybean prices and Argentina influence Brazilian carbon emissions and Amazon deforestation. Specifically, soybean prices emerge as a major driver of carbon emissions. These results suggest that geography and trade integration matter to understanding Amazon deforestation and CO2 emissions. Our estimates highlight the importance of government policies and international cooperation in curbing Amazon deforestation.

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The essence of the investment attractiveness of industrial enterprises is determined by their ability to attract investment through a comprehensive assessment of economic, financial and market characteristics. The current study is aimed at defining the essence of understanding the investment attractiveness of an enterprise and forming its own definition on this basis. In the process of writing the study, various methods of scientific cognition were used, such as analysis, synthesis, generalization, comparison and a systematic approach to study and identify existing approaches and definitions to the interpretation of the investment attractiveness of an enterprise. In the course of the study, the author has found that in the modern economic world there continues to be a growing interest in investment, which was confirmed by the growing dynamics of investment portfolios around the world. It is determined that this trend is evidence of the growing potential of investment markets and creates new prospects for the development of industrial enterprises.

Research on the Two-Pillar Solution and Its Implication

With the rapid development of economic globalization and digitalization, new business models are activating the world economy while exacerbating the remaining problems of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS). In the face of intensifying international tax avoidance, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has announced its Two-pillar solution to the international community, proposing a global minimum tax regime, which is effectively a coordination of global anti-tax avoidance measures. At present, Pillar 2 has come into effect, and Pillar 1 has also been opened for signature, marking the implementation stage of the two-pillar solution. In this paper, the two-pillar solution is the main research object. Firstly, from the perspective of large-scale tax avoidance by multinational corporations, this paper systematically analyzes the historical background of the introduction of the two-pillar solution of the OECD. After a detailed analysis of the provisions of the two-pillar solution, the existing institutional deficiencies and obstacles to its implementation are proposed. Finally, in response to the issues raised, practical recommendations are made that the elements of the two-pillar solution should aim to achieve general equity, balance the interests of developing countries and be in harmony with existing international tax policies. The governments should also optimize the structure of tax incentives.

Restrictive monetary policy – an obstacle to foreign direct investment

This article examines some acute problems of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Monetary Policy and Inflation. Following a long declining trend, global FDI flows decreased in 2023 and remaining below the indicator of 2007, that is pre-global financial crisis level. According to international organizations, FDI flows were negatively affected by high interest rates, unfavourable financing conditions and situation on capital markets. The article considers the role of restrictive monetary policy alongside the theoretical aspects of global inflation. The author argues that the drop in international investment, in particular, can be attributed to Restrictive Monetary Policy in many countries. Restrictive Monetary Policy seems to underestimate the inflationary role of imperfect competition, the rise of prices for imported energy and food, the fluctuations of currency rates as well as expectations of the micro-level participants. The article provides certain economic recommendations to Russia’s regulators on Monetary and FDI Policy. In future the Bank of Russia may gradually move from Restrictive Monetary Policy to Expansionary Monetary Policy to provide stimulus for FDI. Also, this article summarizes the process of predicting future condition of the world economy in applying Kondratieff’s approach. The author concludes that it is necessary to continue studying the long wave theory with the aim of its further use in forecasting the events in Russia and worldwide.

Co-evolutionary-convergent potential of ESG 5.0 as a driver of industrial growth of the Russian economy in a multipolar world

Co-evolutionary-convergent potential of ESG 5.0 as a driver of industrial growth of the Russian economy in a multipolar world

Promoting carbon neutrality: Indian tourists’ intentions to adopt energy-saving behaviours

ABSTRACT Tourism in India contributes to the world's fourth-largest carbon footprint due to its escalating population and rising income levels, but its emissions per person are lower than those of other developed world economies. As one of the largest emerging economies, India's pledge to transition to Net Zero emissions to become Carbon Neutral in COP26 is a great leap forward in achieving Sustainable goals. This study provides an empirical investigation of Indian Tourists’ Intention to adopt Energy-Saving Behaviours (IESB) to promote Carbon Neutrality while travelling by constructing an integrated model incorporating the Norm Activation Model (NAM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) with Environmental Value (EV) and Climate Change Awareness (CA). Data from 456 tourists were gathered online and offline from March 9 to April 25, 2023. The analysis utilised Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with AMOS and SPSS, testing eight hypotheses statistically. The findings are instrumental for the new climate change goals, policymakers, the tourism sector and various related businesses and hotels for ensuring sustainable practices. This is one of the first studies empirically investigating ESB and Carbon neutrality in one of the largest growing economies by extending the NAM and TPB through the realm of travel and tourism.

Wastewaters Coproduced with Shale Gas Drive Slight Regional Salinization of Groundwater.

While unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development is changing the world economy, processes that are used during UOG development such as high-volume hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") have been linked with water contamination. Water quality risks include leaks of gas and salty fluids (brines) that are coproduced at wellpads. Identifying the cause of contamination is difficult, however, because UOG wells are often colocated with other contaminant sources. We investigated the world's largest shale gas play with publicly accessible groundwater data (Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, U.S.A. with ∼29,000 analyses) and discovered that concentrations of brine-associated barium ([Ba]) and strontium ([Sr]) show small regional increases within 1 km of UOG development. Higher concentrations in groundwaters are associated with greater proximity to and density of UOG wells. Concentration increases are even larger when considering associations with the locations of (i) spill-related violations and (ii) some wastewater impoundments. These statistically significant relationships persist even after correcting for other natural and anthropogenic sources of salts. The most likely explanation is that UOG development slightly increases salt concentrations in regional groundwaters not because of fracking but because of the ubiquity of wastewater management issues. These results emphasize the need for stringent wastewater management practices across oil and gas operations.

The Synergistic Effect of Urban and Rural Ecological Resilience: Dynamic Trends and Drivers in Yunnan

With the rapid development of the world economy, pollution of urban and rural ecological environments and the decline in anti-risk capabilities are becoming more serious. In order to promote sustainable improvement of urban and rural ecological resilience, based on previous independent research on urban and rural resilience, this paper combines the two to carry out collaborative development research. The dynamic evolution and driving force heterogeneity in the coordinated development level of urban and rural ecological resilience in Yunnan Province in China from 2013 to 2022 were studied using the coordination degree model of composite system and geographical detector. The results show the following: (1) The urban and rural ecological resilience levels in Yunnan Province increased annually, but urban ecological resilience (0.178) lagged behind that of rural areas (0.376). Compared to rural areas, the overall spatial difference in urban ecological resilience level is significant. (2) The overall level of urban–rural ecological resilience synergy in Yunnan Province has been increasing annually, from “no synergy” to “primary synergy”. However, there are great differences between prefectures and cities. (3) The combination of urban and rural driving factors is more conducive to improving urban–rural ecological resilience. The interaction between the per capita water supply and fertilizer consumption is the primary and critical driving factor. In the future, we will continue to take the coordinated development of urban and rural ecological resilience as the theme, further expand the research field, and carry out future development trend prediction research. This study provides new ideas for the construction of ecological resilience in similar countries and regions worldwide.

ECONOMIC SECURITY CHALLENGES TO PAKISTAN DURING POST PANDEMIC ERA

Pakistan’s economy has faced many challenges since the inception of Pakistan as an independent state. The economy of country was largely dependent on agrarian resources during the initial decades and then industrial bases afterwards. During the past three decades it the economy of Pakistan depends on loans and financial aids from international financial institutions such as, IMF along the industrial growth. The world economy slowed down after the pandemic and it also had consequences on Pakistan economy. Covid-19 caused major disruption in Pakistan economy. As, Before pandemic the GDP growth rate was 2.50% in 2019 and it fell in negative point -1.27% during the fiscal year 2020. The economic challenges to Pakistan raised during pandemic era such as its GDP growth rate decreased in negative points, its fiscal debt increased to 12.74% in 2020 as compare to 2019. Unemployment, shut down of small businesses, increase in job displacement, fiscal deficit, decline in foreign direct investment are the few challenges to name. Therefore, the economic security of Pakistan had faced many challenges during the post pandemic era. The drastic impact of covid-19 forced government to take immediate steps to counter economic challenges. The first national security policy of Pakistan in this regard made economic indicators as a challenge and made economic security a part of national policy.

A comparative study of incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for leading cancers in BRICS countries.

While cancer stands as a prominent global contributor to mortality, the BRICS countries, which contribute a considerable proportion of the world's economy, also account for a substantial proportion of global cancer-related deaths. The study aims to compile data on the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of leading cancers in BRICS countries to assess any variations in these parameters. Indicators such as the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) were abstracted from GLOBOCAN 2022. Global Burden of Disease 2019 provided an overview of DALYs. Additionally, 'Cancer Tomorrow' provided projections for future cancer rates up to 2050. The findings revealed that Russia had the highest ASIR for both sexes. Among males, leading cancer sites included prostate, lung and colorectum, while India stood out with lip and oral cavity cancer as the primary site. Breast cancer dominated among females in all BRICS countries, except China, where lung cancer took precedence. South Africa recorded the highest ASMR for both sexes, with Russia leading among males and South Africa among females. Lung cancer has been the leading cause of death in all countries except India, where breast cancer leads. Trachea, bronchus and lung cancers contributed the most to DALYs, except in India, where breast cancer prevailed. South Africa and India are anticipated to have the highest increase in new cancer cases and deaths in future. Breast and lung cancers accounted for the highest incidence, mortality and DALYs in females and males, respectively. Although the BRICS countries anticipate sustained economic growth and have viable cancer control plans, it is essential to investigate cancer risk factors and health systems influencing cancer incidence and outcomes.

The Evolution of the International Monetary System: Impacts on Multinational Firms and Global Trade

The International Monetary System is a global system that regulates money transfers between different nations. It includes currency exchange rates, regulation of international payments, legislations on capital movements, and worldwide financial organizations, including the IMF. The paper analyses how the change over time of the International Monetary System (IMS) affects the international trade and MNCs. Thus, from the Bretton Woods new exchange regime established in 1944–1971 to the current floating exchange rate system, it has been analyzed in regard to the IMS's historical development. Because of the increasing volatility in the currency rate, this has consequently had an impact on the stability of international transactions and trade volumes. The IMS study investigates exchange rate systems, capital flow regulations, and the role of international financial organizations, including the IMF. For its methodology, the study resorted to a mixed-method approach, combining numbers analysis-that includes regression models and time- series data on exchange rates, amounts of international trade, and MNC performance-with analysis of the historical record and inspection of IMF policy documents. The study shows that trade goes down during big financial troubles, like the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. It also shows that changes in exchange rates make global trade smaller, especially during these crises. Also, while IMF help, such as structural adjustment programs, often causes short-term problems for multinational companies (MNCs), like less foreign direct investment (FDI), these policies usually help stabilize economies and lead to recovery in the long run. The outcomes indicate how the IMS, international trade, and multinational corporations are intertwined. Acquainting oneself with the fluctuating money system is very crucial because it enables a person to make informed decisions about the world economy. Keywords: International Monetary System (IMS), Exchange Rate Volatility, Multinational Corporations (MNCs), International Trade, International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Severity, mortality, and incidence of venous thromboembolism in COVID-19 patients

BackgroundCOVID-19 is a global pandemic that negatively affected the world economy and the health care resources. It is associated with great health impact, mortality, and long-term sequelae.MethodsHistory taking computed tomography of the chest and laboratory investigations including complete blood count, liver and kidney function tests, serum ferritin, C-reactive protein, and D-dimer were done.ResultsA total of 246 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were enrolled. Male predominance (67.1% of the total study population) was observed. The mean age was 57.26 ± 14.08 years. Moderate cases comprised 63.8% of the total study population, 22.4% were severe cases, and 13.8% were critical cases. The mortality rate was 8.13% and 6.1% developed venous thromboembolism.ConclusionAge, smoking, and the presence of previous pulmonary disease were among the most important factors affecting COVID-19 severity. The severity of the disease greatly influences the incidence of venous thromboembolism and the outcome of the disease.

Stochastic network to model the global spreading of respiratory diseases: From SARS-CoV-2 to pathogen X pandemic

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the vulnerability of global health systems. Emerging in November 2019 in Hubei, China, COVID-19 has had far-reaching consequences, affecting every corner of the globe. The impact has been particularly severe, causing widespread collapse of public health systems and contraction of the world economy. The imposition of stringent sanitary restrictions by the majority of countries, in response to SARS-CoV-2, disrupted various economic sectors on a massive scale. The existing gap between developed and underdeveloped countries further complicates the global scenario, raising uncertainties. This concern is amplified when considering the potential threat of other infectious diseases with dynamics akin to SARS-CoV-2, such as a new recombining H5N1 flu strain. Such a strain, if easily transmissible among humans, could lead to another pandemic. In this study, we introduce a stochastic network model designed to assess control strategies on a global scale. This model enables us to project how new variants, evading immunity, might respond to either a coordinated global response from governments or a complete lack of coordination. Our connectivity model between countries is based on a network of contacts derived from actual commercial air connectivity data. The disease dynamics within each country are simulated using a population-based approach with differential equations. The epidemiological model is fine-tuned using real SARS-CoV-2 data reported by various countries from 2019 to 2023.

Economic Globalization Under a New Cold War: Taiwan's Ambiguous and Critical Role

Abstract Producing 92 percent of the world's high-end chips, a critical component for the United States and a strategic asset China aims to control, Taiwan plays an important role in the New Cold War amid escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Several conclusions emerge from the analysis of this role. First, improved communication among the United States, China, and Taiwan is essential. Second, a peaceful Taiwan Strait benefits all parties, as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have catastrophic global repercussions. Third, the future of Taiwan's status and the world economy heavily depends on the evolution of U.S.–China relations and whether China opts for aggressive or peaceful policies.

War shock and the economy

AbstractThe main features of war shock are substantially different from those of the preceding COVID-19 shock. The EU economy is showing important elements of resilience. The existing structural forces and adaptive capacity of the EU economy are clear indications that it is capable of transformation and avoiding recession.The dynamics of the war is also crucial in terms of economic impacts. There are still many uncertainties about the future course of the war and its ramifications. The fundamental question is whether the war is heading in the direction of escalation or de-escalation. Unless the war spreads beyond Ukraine and the conventional means of warfare, its global economic consequences may be limited after the initial shock. New adjustment processes in the field of green and digital transition can be set in motion in parallel with the suffering and turmoil of war shock. New market players could emerge in the energy markets.The prolonged war continues to challenge the Ukrainian economy, but it can remain viable with massive external support. The Russian economy could suffer serious erosion, with its comparative advantage being wasted.There is a real threat of deglobalisation and the emergence of a fragmented world economy, but the counteracting factors appear to be much stronger. However, the prolonged war continues to pose major and unpredictable threats to the countries affected directly and indirectly, to Europe and to the world economy.

The necessary scholarship of Dale W. Tomich

In this brief introduction, we highlight the critical contributions of the esteemed scholar, historical sociologist and theoretical historian, Dale Tomich, whose scholarly interventions have contributed to changing the field of plantation slavery, studies of capital and historical studies in general. We emphasize his key historical and methodological interventions, particularly the importance of studying locales at several intersecting scales, underscoring the world economy as ultimately the main unit of analysis as it operates differentially across the Atlantic and beyond. Moving among these interconnected and relational scales we argue has allowed for a more complex understanding of how even ‘small islands’ like those in the Caribbean facilitate ‘huge comparisons,’ influence and are shaped by deterritorialized forces emanating from the world economy. Tomich’s work we argue, theorizes and historizes from the top to the bottom and vice versa, a necessary labor for apprehending how subject-citizens navigate their worlds in their various locales.

Russia’s Foreign Policy Priorities in the Arctic Region Development at Current Stage

The article reviews the features of the processes in the Arctic region in the context of its growing importance in world politics and economics. The Arctic has the richest resources in the world. In the depths of the Arctic there is about a third of all the world’s reserves of natural gas and up to 13% of oil, huge reserves of coal, gold, copper, nickel, tin, platinum, and manganese. The growing dependence of the world economy on energy resources is pushing foreign countries to develop their interests in this region. Russia occupies a unique geopolitical position in the Arctic. The Arctic zone of Russia is singled out as a special object of state policy on the basis of its special national interests in the areas of geopolitics, economics, ecology, science, defense and national security. The development of mutually beneficial international cooperation in the Arctic meets the interests of Russia and its socioeconomic development. International cooperation in the Arctic is greatly influenced by the contradictory trends in modern international relations. As a result of the confrontation unleashed by Western countries against Russia, there was a significant complication of relations within the Arctic community. The Western Arctic states have blocked the development of common approaches to solving the most important issues for the region in the modern Arctic. In these conditions, Russia is building a multi-vector policy in the Arctic, which has brought positive results in attracting friendly states to partner cooperation on the implementation of projects in the Russian Arctic zone.

The Role of the U.S. Dollar in Global Trade Finance: A Study of Its Dominance and Future Prospects

This paper digs deep on what reason has led the U.S. dollar to be a dominant force for years mainly due to its stability, liquidity, and greater usage within international markets. It has made it the world's reserve currency did not just serve as an enabler for far-flung international trades and investments but also led to the establishment of the United States in terms of standing in economic and geopolitical standing. Historical factors concerning the dollar's increasing popularity over time are addressed in this paper-from the post- WWII establishment of the Bretton Woods system to the moments well after the death of the gold standard. It further explores shifting threats to the supremacy of the dollar and key drivers that might change the financial environment in the world. These are the economic ascension of emerging markets, particularly China, seeking to internationalize the yuan; extension of the BRICS bloc, composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and their joint thrust toward depolarization. Digital currencies and blockchain technology provide an emerging alternative that would allow countries to bypass traditional banking systems or lessen their dependency on the dollar when making cross-border transactions. The discussion explores how geopolitical stress - whether a trade war or the imposition of sanctions, as examples - may push the shift away from the dollar, based on a focus on increasing foreign reserves' diversity and insulation against the over-reach of the US. In addition, the paper went through how adjustments in global financial regulation, technological innovation, and central banks' policies may have an impact on the safe-haven status the dollar enjoys. Through a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods, this paper examines the continued relevance of the dollar at the international level in terms of trade and finance. Indeed, it envisions possible scenarios: the continued reign of the dollar, the emergence of rival currencies, and the new politics of global economic crises over currency dynamics. But if nothing else, it provides a more refined and multi- dimensional view of what is going on with the dollar today and what may go on in the future in an increasingly multipolar world economy. These insights will be critical when policymakers, financial institutions, and global businesses negotiate their way through uncertainty in changing currency landscapes. Keywords: U.S. dollar, global trade, finance reserve, currency economic, uncertainty emerging economies, digital currencies, geopolitical shifts currency competition.

Research on the Cultivation of Artificial Intelligence Professionals in Vocational Colleges

With the rapid development of the global economy and the continuous advancement of technology, the artificial intelligence industry has become a new engine for the development of the world economy today. China's vocational colleges have launched a wave of professional construction in the era of artificial intelligence. However, during the construction process, there have been problems such as a mismatch between the level of education and the needs of industry enterprises, a dilemma in the positioning of talent training goals, curriculum construction lagging behind the actual application of enterprises, a lack of teaching staff and low level of specialization, low coupling of demands between school enterprise cooperation, and obvious lag in the construction of practical teaching conditions. In response to technological changes and industrial development trends, vocational colleges should actively take measures to address these issues under the macroeconomic regulation and specific coordination of the government, with the full participation of industry enterprises. To cultivate more high-quality talents with innovative spirit, practical ability, and international competitiveness for the artificial intelligence industry.

Business Management in an Unstable Economy: Adaptive Strategies and Leadership

In the current world economy that is characterized by dynamism, it has become a norm for the business environment to present volatilities and uncertainties. It is for this reason the various organizations must possess measures that enable them respond aptly to these challenges, as a way of ensuring that it remains strong and operational always. Therefore, this paper undertakes a study on the increased centrality of strategic management in the management of economic unpredictability with particular reference to the need for flexibility, and proactive planning. As a part of a set of detailed case studies, in this paper, we compare different strategies and approaches that helped brands and companies get through the critical period and be resilient enough to come out of the economic downturns. Moreover, this paper focuses on the possible leadership approaches and leadership effectiveness in dealing with crisis, as well as to analyze the importance of great leadership in managing the organization during crises. Here we specify various descriptors and actions of the leaders who managed to maintain their organizations’ stability during an economic crisis and discuss the effective leadership practices for the organization’s resilience. Also, it contains some guidance on how to construct robust business models capable of handling atrocious economic conditions and achieving constant growth. The principles provided in this publication are generated basing on theory and supported by available research findings, and thus can serve as a handy business management manual for professional executives.