World Wheat Market Research Articles

Market Delineation and Price Leadership in the World Wheat Market: A Cointegration Analysis

Wheat types may be classified according to strength, a baking characteristic. Since the demand for wheat is derived demand, the baking characteristic is directly related to end use. Accordingly, the wheat classes that are used in this study are divided into sub-groups according to strength, that is, strong, medium, and weak wheats. Time-series methods are employed to determine how the different classes of wheats are related within each sub-group. The different wheats under the different sub-groups are found to be substitutes to various degrees, but form a robust cointegrating relationship, implying that the wheat prices in these markets are bound together by a long-term equilibrium relationship. Within each of the sub-groups, the U.S. wheats were found to act as a price leader, driving the prices of other wheats belonging in the same sub-group. These U. S. wheats were found to form no long-run relationship between each other given their distinct end uses. The study highlights the importance of differentiating wheat by end use to specify price linkages more accurately.

A spatial equilibrium analysis of trade policy reforms on the world wheat market§

Since a few countries produce most of the world's wheat, and consumption is widespread across the world, wheat is one of the most commonly traded agricultural commodities. In recent years, the wheat market has been going through difficult phases as wheat prices are depressed. The fall in wheat prices is attributed to a supply glut and restrictive trade barriers. This study develops a large-scale spatial equilibrium trade model for wheat to analyse the effects of removing trade barriers (tariffs and subsidies) on each country's/region's price, supply, demand, trade, welfare, and bilateral trade flows. The results show that trade liberalization leads to an increase (decrease) in prices in the exporting (importing) countries. Production and exports increase in the exporting country, and consumption and imports increase in the importing country. Consequently, the volume of trade also increases. The welfare of most countries rises, and thus, world welfare also rises.

Agricultural Economics Society Prize Essay Asymmetric Price Adjustment and the World Wheat Market

Agricultural Economics Society Prize Essay Asymmetric Price Adjustment and the World Wheat Market

Wheat‐Importing State Trading Enterprises: Impacts on the World Wheat Market

State trading emerged as one of the more contentious issues at the end of the Uruguay Round of negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and US. officials have said that state‐trading is an important issue for further negotiation in the mini‐round on agriculture scheduled to begin in 1999. The prevalence of state trading by wheat‐importing countries is examined, and reasons for reform are explored. This paper investigates two hypotheses:*whether operation of a state trading enterprise is associated with a higher level of protection than with private traders and*whether decisions made by state traders regarding the source of wheat is made on a noncommercial basis. The effective level of protection, net import demand equations and a simple Armington model for U.S. and Canadian wheat exports are estimated to investigate these hypotheses. Behavior is compared across countries who differ in their institutional arrangements for importing wheat. It is also compared over time within countries who have reformed their state trading enterprise to assess whether reform leads to different market behavior.L'intervention directe de 1'État dans les échanges commerciaux extérieurs s'est imposée comme une les questions des plus controversées au terme de l' Uruguay Round des négociations du GATT, et des hauts responsables américains ont laissé entendre qu'il faudra s'y attaquer dans la mini‐ronde de négociations sur l ‘agriculture qui doivent commencer en 1999. Nous examinons Vimportance du rôle de I'État chez les pays importateors de blé en explorant les raisons justifiant une réforme. Dewr hypothèses sont considérées:*le fonctionnement de l'agence d'État est liéà un niveau de protection plus élevé qu'il ne l'est avec des interlocuteurs privés et*les décisions prises par l'agence d'État au sujet de la source d'approvisionnement de blé s'ap‐puient sur des raisons non commerciales. Pour scruter ces hypothèses, nous calculons le niveau effectif de protection, les équations de demande à l'importation nette et un modèle Armington simple des exportations de bléétats‐uniennes et canadiennes. Nous comparons le comportement de pays différant par leurs structures offcielles d'importation du blé. Nous étudions aussi son évolution dans le temps chez les pays qui ont réformé leur agence centrale de commerce extérieur, afin de voir si ces réformes ont conduit à un comportement d'affaires différent.

Tsarist Russia and the World Wheat Market

Russian grain trade, production, and consumption during the Tsarist period (1861–1914) is empirically evaluated. Russia was the world's largest wheat exporter during this period. Tsarist Russian agriculture is often characterized in the literature as having been “backward” and not well-integrated with international markets. In contrast to this view, this analysis finds that the Russian grain trade was significantly influenced by international prices and was well-integrated with the international commercial wheat trade. Our results indicate that after 1880 regional wheat markets in Russia were linked and that a strong connection had been established between Russian ports and cities at the center of the world wheat trade. Deviations from equilibrium price relationships were found to be eliminated more rapidly for trade between Odessa and England than for wheat trade between New York and England. In addition, grain trade is shown to have been positively influenced by the development of the rail system.

The Elimination of the Canadian and Australian Wheat Boards: A Move from Triopoly to Perfect Competition in the World Wheat Market

The Elimination of the Canadian and Australian Wheat Boards: A Move from Triopoly to Perfect Competition in the World Wheat Market

A Stochastic simulation analysis of the effects of Indian wheat production instability on the world wheat market

Adverse weather factors in India augment the instability in wheat supply and trade. Consequently, India's wheat trade is a classic example of stochastic supply being the dominant factor in determining trade flows. This study analyzes the effects of random fluctuations in India's wheat supply on domestic and world price variability and trade flows of India and major exporters and importers by using stochastic simulation analysis. Trade mitigates price variability and, thus, acts as a buffer stock program in reducing price variability. The results show that production shortfalls (surpluses) in India benefit wheat exporters (importers) and hurt importers (exporters).

The Former Soviet Union and the World Wheat Economy

AbstractThe impacts of the former Soviet Union leaving the world wheat market as a consistent net importer are investigated using a modified spatial trade equilibrium model. The simulation results suggest that the former Soviet Union, following Bigman's stochastic trade hypothesis, can have a stabilizing role in the future world wheat economy.

Wheat Storage and Trade in an Efficient Global Market

AbstractDomestic and international linkages in speculative stockholdings and trade of wheat are analyzed using a dynamic rational expectations model of the world wheat market dominated by the U.S. and the EU. The results demonstrate the importance of endogenizing both storage and trade in studying commodity markets and suggest that past government stockholdings have not followed efficient market outcomes. Results indicate that elimination of the Export Enhancement Program by the U.S. and of export restitution payments by the EU are unlikely to have a major impact on wheat exports from the two regions but will save millions of tax dollars in both regions.

Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market

Most wheat exports are accounted for by a limited number of countries with different policy regimes and specializing, for the most part, in particular classes of wheat. Under these circumstances, there is likely to be considerable interaction among the major exporting countries in the determination of wheat prices. In this paper, price linkages between the U.S. and other exporting countries (Canada, the European Union, Argentina and Australia) in the world wheat market are investigated. After determining that the direction of causality is from U. S. prices to the prices of other exporting countries, the nature of the price linkages is studied. The results suggest that the major exporting countries respond asymmetrically to U.S. price changes. The degree of asymmetry differs from one exporting country to another, Argentina and the European Union show greater response to falling prices than to rising prices, while the opposite is true for Canada and Australia.

Measuring the Degree of Market Power Exerted by Government Trade Agencies

AbstractThe principle of profit maximization is used to derive an equilibrium condition for noncompetitive markets and to provide explicit parametric tests for market power exerted in both domestic and foreign markets by a government trade agency. Our study goes beyond previous work by considering simultaneous exertion of market power in both domestic and foreign markets and by jointly estimating market power parameters with cost and demand parameters. These innovations allow nested tests of market power as opposed to prevailing nonnested tests based on simulation models or conditional tests based on prior estimates of demand and cost parameters. Japan is found to exert a high degree of monopsony power in the world wheat market and no monopoly power in the domestic market.

Market Structure, Quality and World Wheat Market

Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomieVolume 40, Issue 2 p. 311-328 Market Structure, Quality and World Wheat Market Bruno Larue, Bruno Larue Assistant professor, De'partement d ‘Economie Rurale, Universite’ Laval, Quebec City, QuebecSearch for more papers by this authorHarvey E. Lapan, Harvey E. Lapan Professor, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames, IowaSearch for more papers by this author Bruno Larue, Bruno Larue Assistant professor, De'partement d ‘Economie Rurale, Universite’ Laval, Quebec City, QuebecSearch for more papers by this authorHarvey E. Lapan, Harvey E. Lapan Professor, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames, IowaSearch for more papers by this author First published: July 1992 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.1992.tb03696.xCitations: 10AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Citing Literature Volume40, Issue2July 1992Pages 311-328 RelatedInformation

The Impact of the U.S. Wheat Export Enhancement Program on the World Wheat Market: Reply

The Impact of the U.S. Wheat Export Enhancement Program on the World Wheat Market: Reply

The Impact of the U.S. Wheat Export Enhancement Program on the World Wheat Market: Comment

The Impact of the U.S. Wheat Export Enhancement Program on the World Wheat Market: Comment

The Impact of the U.S. Wheat Export Enhancement Program on the World Wheat Market

The Impact of the U.S. Wheat Export Enhancement Program on the World Wheat Market

A Policy Analysis of China's Wheat Economy

AbstractThis paper examines the impacts of China's historical and anticipated future reforms on its domestic wheat economy and how it affects the import demand for wheat using a stochastic coefficient regression method. The results strongly support the hypothesis that producers and consumers in the post‐reform era were responsive to a less controlled economy. Furthermore, the higher import forecasts indicate that China will interact more with the world wheat market.

IMPORTER LOYALTY IN THE INTERNATIONAL WHEAT MARKET

Important political and institutional relationships exist between most grain‐trading partners. In many cases the purpose of these relationships is to enhance importer loyalty to a particular exporter. This paper tests for loyalty in the world wheat market. Loyalty is measured by repeat purchases. An application of the Markov model is used to analyse loyalty and to explain international trade flows in wheat. Results show that in general the United States has relatively strong import loyalty compared to the other exporters such as Canada and the European Community.

Gains From Trade Liberalization in the World Wheat Market

Gains From Trade Liberalization in the World Wheat Market

Domestic Farm Policy and the Gains from Trade: Comment

Schmitz, Sigurdson, and Doering (SSD) argue that domestic and trade policies can lead to negative gains from trade. They derive the no-gains from trade position when the importing country restricts trade and the exporter seeks to maintain its volume of exports by subsidizing production. They extend their results to the case where the exporter imposes production subsidies, a price support, and a setaside program. SSD analyze the world wheat market and argue that current programs in wheatexporting countries may cause negative gains from trade.

An examination of market share determination in the world wheat market with special reference to the effects of currency exchange rate fluctuations

An examination of market share determination in the world wheat market with special reference to the effects of currency exchange rate fluctuations