World Trade Research Articles

IS DE-DOLLARIZATION INEVITABLE?

Relying on relevant studies of internationally recognized economists, using content analysis, synthesis, and comparison methods, we monitor the process of de-dollarization, i.e. phenomenon of establishing a new balance of power in the global financial order. The main intention of the work is to project future directions of international monetary policy by pointing out the institutional and other barriers to the internationalization of the main contender for the status of global currency — the Chinese renminbi. The aim of the work is to provide guidelines to the creators of domestic economic policy in the context of the increased importance of non-Western currencies, and consequently, the need to rebalance the foreign exchange reserves and create the necessary infrastructure for the increased use of the Chinese currency on the domestic foreign exchange market. We conclude that despite a certain weakening of the global importance of the US currency — especially from the beginning of 2022 — the process of dedollarization is in its initial phase, and that could last for decades. Namely, in order to form a multilateral currency system, taking into account the current hegemonic status of the dollar, a substantial increase in the use of other currencies is necessary. This applies to world trade crediting, where the greatest, but still limited, progress of the yuan is seen, but also to the other domains such as the allocation of central bank’s foreign exchange reserves, the securities’ denomination, and the invoicing of financial transactions in bilateral trade and other arrangements.

Green public procurement of pharmaceuticals as a regulatory response to antimicrobial resistance and its compatibility with the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement

AbstractThis article examines the compatibility of production‐related environmental criteria in green public procurement with international trade law, specifically the World Trade Organization's Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA). In response to the global health and environmental challenge of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), such measures offer extraterritorial regulation by pharmaceutical purchasing countries where domestic regulation is not forthcoming in pharmaceutical producing countries. The article finds that such green public procurement measures may be compatible with the GPA. The general exceptions of the GPA can be invoked to overcome the potential non‐adherence of these measures to the principle of non‐discrimination between like products (in this case pharmaceuticals) from different importing countries. The provisions of the GPA relating to technical specifications and tender documentation accommodate such green public procurement measures. The provisions relating to conditions for participation in tenders for a public procurement contract and the award criteria for choosing the bidder to whom the contract should be awarded are silent in respect of environmental considerations. However, this may change with the development of domestic regulation on antibiotic effluent and an expansive reading of the term ‘public interest’ in the GPA. For now, international trade law continues to adopt a limited, accommodationist approach towards non‐trade objectives. This approach must be abandoned given the grave implications of failure to address the adverse impacts of global challenges such as AMR. At the same time, compatibility between green public procurement measures and the GPA cannot be taken for granted. The growing interest in domestic or regional drug security, especially in the wake of the COVID‐19 pandemic, may expand the geographical range of pharmaceutical manufacturers, with the possibility that such measures, originally intended to achieve non‐trade objectives, restrict trade.

Trump Says the WTO Is a Disaster

In 2017, it was a challenge to assess the future of global trade. It was an open question whether the US financial crisis and the recession that it triggered would mark a turning point for the liberal post–World War II world order. If one looked toward Europe, China, Latin America, and Japan, there was a flurry of activity. New trade agreements were being completed and pursued. In Washington, DC, on the other hand, President Donald Trump seemed set on ripping apart and/or renegotiating any trade deal the United States was ever part of.This case explores Trump's opinions and emerging policy stance on trade, bilateralism, and the global economy, among others. It also gives an overview of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and asks whether the Trump presidency would constitute a major challenge to the WTO and what it stood for in 2017.

Are commodity exports a road to weaker institutions? Causal inference through a natural experiment

AbstractCountries rich in natural resources are typically major exporters of commodities worldwide. Specialization in such goods may create incentives for certain groups to hinder a country's institutional development. Therefore, in this article, we investigate the causal relationship between commodity exports and the institutional quality of 49 countries from 1997 to 2022. Given that commodity exports can both influence and be influenced by institutional quality, it is crucial to search for exogenous natural variations in commodity exports in combination with econometric modeling strategies. To address the endogeneity problem, we use a natural experiment—China's accession to the World Trade Organization—to establish a causal link between agricultural exports and institutional quality free from bias. Our results highlight that increased reliance on commodity exports is linked to detrimental effects on a country's institutions. It diminishes citizen participation, increases the risk of political violence, lowers public service quality, hampers private sector development, erodes trust in societal rules, and amplifies corruption. The findings confirm the negative relationship between commodity exports and institutional development. They also contribute to the resource‐curse debate by showing that agricultural exporters with abundant natural resources negatively impact institutions. Additionally, a causal relationship is established, demonstrating that focusing on commodity exports reduces institutional effectiveness, with the study's quality enhanced by using various commodity product bundles and alternating institutional quality measures. EconLit Citations: F13, F55, Q0.

Effects of Globalization on Third World Development: The Nigerian Experience

The study examines globalization and its effects on third world development with emphasis on the Nigerian state. The growing global economy was fastened mostly by information technology, international trade, culture, political, and social activities across the globe. It has no doubt created a global dual phenomenon where third world countries continued to experience economic and political development at the expense of western world. Thus, third world countries are fully incorporated into the global capitalist economy but the accrued benefits are not evenly distributed. Globalization is another form of colonization of third world countries achieved through the use of exploitative instruments like World Trade Organization (WTO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, multinational corporations and other international financial institutions in order to capture the world in the name of globalization. These aforementioned instruments in the name of globalization are diversionary and plausible because there is no country in the world that is in the process of development as a result of globalization or that has developed as a product of globalization. The pro-globalizers deceive third world countries, that globalization is a path to development in which all third world countries are supposed to follow in order to become developed. Nigeria, in the current wind of globalization remains a clientele economy in the competitive global market. The study adopts documentary research methods and relied majorly on secondary data and modernisation theory was adopted as the theoretical foundation of the study. The study revealed that underdevelopment in Nigeria resulted from the negative effects of globalization are to explore the political impacts of globalization and imposition of foreign rule in Nigeria, to explore the economic impacts of globalization and unequal terms of trade in Nigeria and to identify the role of Nigeria as giant of Africa in global markets. The study, however suggest economic diversification and exportable capacity of the third world economy in the global market, regulation of international capitalist structure through applicability of market friendly policies devoid of stringent market policies placed on third world countries by the developed countries and Improving bank regulations of the third world countries nations banks are well regulated to their boost economic growth. The study concludes that there is interconnectedness between globalization and development in Nigeria, which in turn increases the rate of unemployment of masses and hinders political and economic development in Nigeria.

Enforcement of Multilateral Trade Regulation by Non-State Actors – Desirable and Feasible?

Abstract Since its inception, the inter-state dispute settlement system of the World Trade Organisation has generally been praised for effectively protecting the rule of law in international trade relations. While the relatively recent dismantling of this system does not necessarily mean the end of the WTO nor of the binding nature of its rules, the current crisis may be a good opportunity to reconsider the role of the rule of law in international trade relations and the ways in which it could further be accommodated. One suggestion, occasionally raised in the past, would be strengthening the enforcement of WTO rules by opening it to private action, either before national courts or through international adjudication. After all, the latter has been widely available to foreign investors covered by thousands of international investment agreements in force for decades. This contribution recalls the reasons behind the current lack of private enforcement of WTO law and argues that developments in international trade relations and experiences with investor-state dispute settlement are likely to work against rather than in favor of its introduction in the foreseeable future. Increased transparency and institutionalisation of non-state actors’ role in trade enforcement is therefore recommended instead.

0894 Effects of Chronic Rhinosinusitis (CRS) on Sleep Duration and Variability in World Trade Center (WTC) Responders

0894 Effects of Chronic Rhinosinusitis (CRS) on Sleep Duration and Variability in World Trade Center (WTC) Responders

Legal and Historical Perspective of Plant Breeders Rights Act of Pakistan

Pakistan is an agricultural country and numerous plant varieties have been developed indigenously by local scientists. There was a long felt need to introduce any sort of protection mechanism for these novel plant varieties to protect the research and development (R&D). Being a World Trade Organization (WTO) member, Pakistan acceded to the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement in 1995, and since then, legislation was due to protect the rights of breeders of new plant varieties. In 2016, the Government of Pakistan passed the Plant Breeder’s Rights Act (PBRA), in alignment with the International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants Convention of 1991 (UPOV), balancing the interests of biotechnology companies and traditional plant breeders. The current study highlights Pakistan's strengths and areas that still require improvement to meet the nation's demands for plant variety protection.

Matias E. Margulis, Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security Stanford University Press, 2023

Matias E. Margulis, Shadow Negotiators: How UN Organizations Shape the Rules of World Trade for Food Security Stanford University Press, 2023

‘No safe haven’: Why theGATT‘regional exception’ does not apply to technical barriers to trade

AbstractDuring the last two decades, Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) have increased in quantity and broadened in scope. Far from merely reducing tariffs, they now set out a detailed discipline also on behind‐the‐border measures. Due to their trade‐restrictive potential, technical barriers to trade (TBTs) are now systematically regulated in PTAs. Since PTAs discriminate by definition, it is pivotal to understand whether their regulation of TBTs may be reconciled with the multilateral non‐discrimination obligation. Against this backdrop, this article aims to assess whether WTO‐incompatible TBT provisions in PTAs may benefit from the GATT 1994 ‘Regional Exception’, that is, Article XXIV. I will argue that, by virtue of thelex specialisprinciple, Article XXIV may not shield violations of the TBT Agreement. The impact of this study is two‐fold. First, it shows that Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) must respect the Most‐Favoured Nation (MFN) clause when integrating their domestic policies. Second, using TBTs as a case study, it proposes some crucial adjustments to WTO case law, that should be considered also when deciding on the interplay between the GATT 1994 and WTO Agreements other than the TBT Agreement.

How to promote workplace inclusion? Needs and meanings through the lens of HR managers

Purpose Although the topic of inclusion has become a hot and unavoidable issue for organizations, research on how this topic is being addressed in companies is still almost nonexistent. How do HR managers promote workplace inclusion? The objective of this study is to answer this research question. Design/methodology/approach The results are based on evidence that emerged during in-depth interviews conducted with 16 human resources professionals from the world of large-scale retail trade, as well as from the analysis of documents and reports produced by the companies in which the interviewed professionals work. Findings The findings reveal that the promotion of corporate inclusion is not only aimed at satisfying the need for belongingness and uniqueness. It is also aimed at satisfying two other types of human needs, namely, the human need to share and the human need to be impactful. In addition, the results reveal that HR professionals promote workplace inclusion through six initiatives that can be traced to two main ways in which inclusion is conceived. Originality/value Even though there is an extensive number of studies aimed at defining and measuring the construct of workplace inclusion, progress has not been made in understanding how HR professionals promote inclusion. This study covers this literature gap by bringing to light the existence of two main meanings associated by HR professionals to workplace inclusion: extensive inclusiveness and narrow inclusiveness.

Terms-of-trade and welfare effects of the 2018–2019 US tariff hikes on electrical equipment and plastics

ABSTRACT Despite theoretical analyses of the welfare impact of higher tariffs, empirical studies remain relatively scarce. This study bridges this gap by examining the price, terms-of-trade, and welfare effects of the 2018–2019 US tariff hikes in plastics and electrical equipment products, which are crucial to the US and world trade and are ranked among the top 10 largest total value of imports among the 99 harmonized system broad product groups of US imports during 2018–2019. Accordingly, this study a) derives a flexible partial equilibrium welfare model that accounts for terms-of-trade gains and losses and welfare effects under perfectly and monopolistically competitive market settings; b) estimates trade elasticities using average monthly bilateral exports of trade partners to the US at the 10-digit HS level over the January 2016–August 2020 period; and c) estimates the terms-of-trade, efficiency, and welfare effects of the 2018–2019 tariff hikes using estimated elasticities and trade data at the 4-digit HS level. The results suggest that the tariff hikes yielded negative terms of trade, efficiency, and welfare effects on the US economy, the bulk of the welfare loss resulting from increased international free-on-board import prices. The findings call for in-depth industry-specific analyses before rolling out tariff hikes.

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Economic Management Decision of Commercial Banks Based on Big Data Intelligent Decision

Since the 1970s, China’s economy has been changing rapidly, especially after joining the World Economic and Trade Organization, and with the increase in multinational enterprises, the development of overseas markets has become more convenient, contributing to the further strengthening of our economic power. The financial industry plays an essential role in the development of a country, and commercial banks are the leaders in the financial sector. They have made significant contributions to national economic growth. Under the background of substantial economic development, the economic management decisions of commercial banks have become more complex, which makes the risks faced by commercial banks increase continuously. The rapid growth of global informatization has effectively boosted the development of all walks of life. Based on the intelligent characteristics of big data, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of economic management decisions of commercial banks based on wise choices of big data, hoping to enable commercial banks to achieve the ideal expectation of financial management of “reducing risk and creating value” to enhance the competitiveness of commercial banks in the whole market.

Research on Machine Learning-based Prediction of Coffee Futures Prices

Coffee is one of the major agricultural commodities in world trade, and its futures are vital tools in the global capital market. The continued vitality of the coffee market and substantial price fluctuations have increased hedging demands among market participants. Consequently, predicting future price trends of coffee futures to yield excess returns has become a focal point in the field of quantitative investment. Machine learning methods are increasingly being applied in the field of quantitative investment due to their performance advantages in complex data classification and regression. This paper analyzes the current state of the coffee futures market and the factors influencing its prices. In this study, five market indicators and one technical indicator, the bias rate, were selected as inputs. The closing price for the subsequent day, along with short-term (50 days) and long-term (200 days) price trends, were forecasted using two machine learning techniques: the linear regression model and the random forest model. The results demonstrated that, of the two predictive models utilized in this study, the random forest model performed better concerning regression prediction evaluation indices. When predicting short-term (50-day) price trends, the linear regression model exhibited superior performance. However, both models revealed significant errors in predicting long-term (200-day) price trends.

Preface: 6th International Conference on Global Economy and Business Management (GEBM 2024)

The 2024 6th International Conference on Global Economy and Business Management (GEBM 2024) for the researchers and scientists was successfully held in New Delhi, India during January 20-21, 2024. This conference provides a forum for accessing to the most up-to-date and authoritative knowledge, sharing the best practice in the fields of global economy, world trade, financial investment, real estate, economic policy, e-commerce, and business management. The GEBM 2024 program covered invited, oral, and poster presentations from scientists working in similar areas to establish platforms for collaborative research projects in these fields. This conference brought together many participants to exchange and share their experiences, present research results, explore collaborations and to spark new ideas, with the aim of developing new projects in these fields. The organizing committee appreciates the enormous work of the both the editorial board and reviewers in the preparation of this volume. Many thanks also to all authors for their flexibility and meeting deadlines. With warmest regards, GEBM Conference Organizing Committees New Delhi, India

The Cooptation Dilemma: Explaining US Contestation of the Liberal Trade Order

Abstract While the United States (US) acted as a liberal hegemon in setting up the Liberal International Order (LIO), it is increasingly contesting the inclusive legacy institutions underpinning the LIO and is instead moving towards alternative, more exclusive institutions. Why is the US contesting the institutions it once set up to stabilize the LIO? We argue that hegemonic contestation is the result of a reactive sequence that is endogenous to cooptation-based orders where hegemons face a trade-off between inclusion and control. This Cooptation Dilemma is particularly pronounced in strongly institutionalized liberal (sub-)orders, such as the international trade regime. It unfolds in three stages: Privileging control, the liberal hegemon first creates exclusive institutions, which are likely to breed contestation by excluded states. To tame their contestation, the hegemon secondly includes previously excluded states into the order, making the previously exclusive institutions more and more inclusive. To compensate for the related control loss, the hegemon finally promotes alternative, more exclusive institutions, successively turning away from the inclusive legacy institutions. We demonstrate this reactive sequence by tracing the process that led to the US contestation of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Our findings suggest that cooptation-based orders in general and strongly institutionalized liberal orders in particular are prone to dynamic instability.

A new approach to combating illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing: analysis of the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies

Harmful subsidies awarded by states facilitate illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, which causes negative impacts on ocean ecosystems, seafood value chains, society, and global food security. The World Trade Organization Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, adopted on June 17, 2022, aims to improve global fishery governance through trade measures and is regarded as a major step toward the achievement of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The objective of this study is to offer a better insight into the interpretation and future implementation of the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies. Based on the status quo of international and regional fishery governance legal systems and management regimes in the regulation of IUU fishing, this study reviews the legislative process of the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, analyzes five main controversial issues, and explores the conflicts of interests of different countries during the discussion. In the future, states should promote the transformation of the fisheries sector by reducing harmful subsidies for IUU fishing and enhancing cooperation among coastal states, flag states, port states and relevant RFMOs.

Expansion of brics: Implications for global energy markets

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa have invited six other countries to join the BRICS grouping next year, namely Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. The expanded BRICS is the lynchpin of the changing world order and economic clout for the promotion of the Global South agenda. As evidence suggests, the new group is likely to exert profound influence over the world energy investment and trade: apart from impressive oil and gas deposits, an expanded BRICS could have 72 percent of rare earths (and three of the five countries with the largest reserves). This paper seeks to assess the energy market potential of each country invited to join the group and estimate the possible impact of these markets on mineral trade flows, investments, and energy trade deals within the BRICS association. To address the implications for global energy markets carried by this expansion, the paper examines each new member of the BRICS grouping’s mineral supplies and renewable energy capabilities. The authors conduct qualitative data analysis based on numerical evidence collected from the energy sector reports of each country, the latest report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and from publications by prominent experts of the countries invited to join BRICS. By revealing the current tendencies in BRICS oil and gas markets and the energy features peculiar to each of the new members, the paper answers the research question concerning the mineral resources that each new member of the bloc could offer in order to boost the BRICS energy markets. Touching upon the clean energy transition processes in the new member countries, the authors conclude by contemplating on the impact of the new BRICS on global energy trade in general.

International Trade Law: A Driver of Climate Action or a Roadblock?

Abstract Much has been written about changing the world's perception of international trade—from an area of development that will accelerate climate change to a powerful tool that can drive climate action. This article elaborates on four mechanisms of international trade law developed and honed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) that can play a pivotal role in accelerating climate action. The four mechanisms are the WTO's dispute resolution system, the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), and the regional trade agreements (RTAs) negotiated under the WTO framework. Elucidating the WTO's role, this article supports the proposition that every multilateral institution can rise to the occasion and spearhead climate action in its own unique capacity.

Tourism services’ regulation in the process of Uzbekistan’s accessing the WTO: legal and practical analyses

Today, the World Trade Organization is the main foundation of all economic activity in globalized states. The membership of the Republic of Uzbekistan in this organization will create the responsibility for a comprehensive analysis of the issues of its membership in the future, which will play an important role in the further integration of the country into the world community. The General Agreement on Trade in Services, as an integral treaty of this system, is considered to be one of the important agreements. The research paper emphasizes the legal and practical aspects of the regulation of tourism services in the framework of the GATS during this accession process. Moreover, recommendations based on international-legal norms on the WTO, scientific sources, and the results of in-depth interviews with foreign and national professionals, as well as academicians, which should be implemented in the conditions of Uzbekistan’s joining the organization have been proposed.