: Despite Washington successfully arresting Beijing’s plan to construct a military base in the UAE, trade between Abu Dhabi and Beijing has grown to such an extent that China is now the UAE’s top source of imports and enjoys a trade surplus larger than Washington’s. Meanwhile, the UAE has received sizable investment for the Belt and Road Initiative and cooperates on promoting the renminbi. Meanwhile, bifurcation theory holds that, contrary to previous hegemonic transitions, US hegemony will split into military hegemony retained by Washington and economic hegemony to be seized by Beijing. Drawing on world-systems analysis, this paper seeks to determine whether the above gains by China are translating into economic hegemony, examining its three components of production, trade, and financial dominance in the UAE. The article argues that, while Beijing has bested Washington in production and trade dominance, several factors—such as the petrodollar—obstruct China’s attainment of financial dominance, thereby preventing bifurcation.
Read full abstract