World Rice Research Articles

PENERAPAN METODE WAVELET NEURO-FUZZY SYSTEM (WNFS) DALAM MEMPREDIKSI HARGA BERAS DUNIA (Studi Kasus: Harga Beras Thailand sebagai Harga Acuan Dunia)

Rice trade is one of the food resistance components in terms of its availability. The comprehensive integration between international commodity rice prices and domestic prices encourage the prediction of world rice prices, using the Thai rice price as the world's reference price. In this study, the wavelet neuro-fuzzy system which combines the wavelet transform and the neuro-fuzzy technique has been applied to monthly predict the world rice price. The observed monthly rice price data are decomposed into some sub-series components by maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT), and then the appropriate sub-series that have higher correlation to the real data are used as inputs of the neuro-fuzzy model for monthly predicting world rice prices for six months in advance. The neuro-fuzzy model is begun with determining the membership value of each data using Fuzzy C-Means, followed by fuzzy inference procedure of the Sugeno zero-order model. Obtained results showed that the WNFS method can be used to predict the world rice price, with the error value resulted from learning process of MSE 20,69097 and MAPE 0,65584%. While the error measurement results for the six months in advance prediction shows the acquisition of MSE 3610,14847 and MAPE 13,62334%. Keywords : Prediction of Monthly World Rice Price, Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, Neuro-fuzzy System.

Estimation of Hidden Demand and Its Impact on the World Rice Market

Estimation of Hidden Demand and Its Impact on the World Rice Market

「世界のイネコアコレクション」における温湯消毒時の種籾の高温耐性の品種間差の解析

化学農薬を使用しない水稲の種子温湯消毒法は，クリーンな技術として注目され，「60℃で10分間」という処理条件が広く普及している．しかし，この条件では完全に防除できない病害もある．したがって，この消毒法を安定した技術とするためには，多くの品種に高温耐性を付与し，より厳しい条件で処理できるようにすることが重要である．温湯消毒時の種籾の高温耐性には明らかな品種間差があり，この形質は育種学的な手法で改善できる可能性がある．例えば，日本型品種の「ひとめぼれ」の種籾は強い高温耐性を有することが示されている．一方で，インド型品種や糯米品種は一般に種籾の高温耐性が弱く温湯消毒に適さないことも報告されている．これらのことを踏まえて本研究では，「ひとめぼれ」のような有用な遺伝資源となりうる品種を見出すことを目的に，農業生物資源ジーンバンクが確立した「世界のイネコアコレクション」の種籾の温湯消毒時の高温耐性を評価した．その結果，日本型品種の「Rexmont」と「Tupa 729」，インド型品種の「Badari Dhan」の3品種の種籾が，極めて強い高温耐性を有していることが明らかになった．さらに，「Badari Dhan」以外のインド型品種や，糯米品種の中にも「ひとめぼれ」と同等，あるいはそれ以上の高温耐性を示す種籾が存在することが明らかとなり，温湯消毒時の高温耐性に関して有用な遺伝資源となり得る複数の品種を特定することができた．

Analysis of four toxic metals in a single rice seed by matrix solid phase dispersion -inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry.

Toxic metals in rice pose great risks to human health. Metal bioaccumulation in rice grains is a criterion of breeding. Rice breeding requires a sensitive method to determine metal content in single rice grains to assist the variety selection. In the present study, four toxic metals of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr) and lead (Pb) in a single rice grain were determined by a simple and rapid method. The developed method is based on matrix solid phase dispersion using multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) as dispersing agent and analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The experimental parameters were systematically investigated. The limits of detection (LOD) were 5.0, 0.6, 10 and 2.1 ng g−1 for As, Cd, Cr, and Pb, respectively, with relative standard deviations (n = 6) of <7.7%, demonstrating the good sensitivity and precision of the method. The results of 30 real world rice samples analyzed by this method agreed well with those obtained by the standard microwave digestion. The amount of sample required was reduced approximately 100 fold in comparison with the microwave digestion. The method has a high application potential for other sample matrices and elements with high sensitivity and sample throughput.

KETAHANAN PANGAN PADA ERA GLOBALISASI DAN OTONOMISASI

Food security deals with food availability, accesscibility and stability. Food availability can be from domestic production and import. Although the production of cereals in developing countries almost equal to the production in developed countries, the much greater population of almost 79 % of the world population, the self sufficiency rate of cereals in developing countries is only 91% and to be net importer, while the self sufficiency rate of the developed countries, are more than 100 % (108 %). There are some exception for several developing countries to be big rice exporters such like Thailand, Vietnam, India, China and Pakistan.Cereal staple foods in developing countries is dominated by rice especially in East and South Asia, includes Indonesia. International rice market is characterized with oligopolistic since only six big exporting countries supllying the international rice market.After experiencing rice self sufficiency in 1984 – 1994 Indonesia have been net rice importer again, even in 1998 21% of marketed rice ini the world market were imported by Indonesia. There should be a policy to increase production to a certain rate of rice self sufficiency that will not influence the world rice market equilibrium.The food accessibility depend closely on the wider economic condition such as income distribution, poverty and unemployment, Government intervention is needed toreduce instability including to protect from the international market instability by flexible tariff. Stabilizing the seasional price fluctuation by floor price and ceiling price policy combined with buffer-stock policy had been successful. However, there should be a modified policy toward more liberized without import monopoly

Linkage between Rural Voters and Politicians: Effects on Rice Policies in the Philippines and Thailand

AbstractThis article explains how linkages between politicians and rural voters affected the design of agricultural policies, using rice in two countries as examples. In the Philippines, colonial history bolstered an oligarchy of landed elite politicians, whose power was restored after the dictatorship of Marcos ended in 1986. Their practice of patronage brought corruption that led to dwindling rice productivity and increasing import dependence while displacing the political necessity to offer price support to farmers. In Thailand, sociopolitical development was more centralized, with new electoral rules introduced in 1997 to weaken locally confined patronage arrangements. Mass parties competing on a policy platform were favoured instead, resulting in increasing, but eventually, excessive subsidies for rice farmers. Although voter–politician linkages resulted in different rice policies in the two countries, recent instability in the world rice market showed that strategies with greater sustainability considerations are needed in addressing domestic income disparities and global food insecurity.

DTPA-Extractable Zinc in Rice Soils and Its Availability to Rice

Zinc (Zn) deficiency is a fairly wide spread agronomic constraint in many of the world rice production regions. Information on soil Zn distribution is essential for understanding its chemical reactions and bioavailability. In this backdrop, we tried to find out the relationship between physic-chemical properties and DTPA-extractable Zn (available Zn) content of rice soils. For this eighty four (84) surface soil samples (0-20cm) were collected from three villages (viz. Saharapali, Nuagarh and Adgaon) of Bargarh district under the Hirakud Command Area of Odisha. Analytical observations revealed that the soils were slightly acidic in reaction with moderately high content of soil organic carbon. Considering the critical limit of available Zn in soils to be 0.6 mg kg-1, all soils of the study area were found to be well supplied with DTPA-extractable Zn. Soil organic carbon (SOC) content maintained positive and significant correlation with available zinc content in soils. However, soil pH showed significant but negative correlation with available zinc content of soils.

Greenhouse gas emissions as affected by different water management practices in temperate rice paddies

The mitigation of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from rice paddy fields is pivotal in minimizing the impact of rice production on global warming. The large majority of the world rice is cropped in continuously flooded paddies, where soil anaerobic conditions lead to the production and emission of significant amounts of CH4. In this work we evaluated the effectiveness of water management techniques alternative to the conventional flooding on the mitigation of CH4 emissions from paddy soils, and verified whether any concurrent increase in N2O emissions can totally or partially offset their environmental benefit. Two alternative water management systems were compared to the conventional continuous flooding system (WFL): dry seeding with delayed flooding (DFL) and intermittent irrigation (DIR). Methane and N2O emissions were monitored at field-scale over two years including both rice cropping and fallow seasons, using non-steady-state closed chamber approach. The DFL system resulted in a 59% decrease (average of the two measured years) in total CH4 emissions with respect to WFL, while DIR annulled CH4 emissions. The effect of CH4 mitigation of DFL with respect to WFL was mainly concentrated within the vegetative stage, while any significant flux from DIR was recorded throughout the growing and non-growing season. However, DIR resulted in the highest emission peaks and cumulative fluxes of N2O, almost totally occurred during the vegetative stage. In contrast, DFL and WFL showed N2O emissions that were 77 and 93% lower with respect to DIR, respectively. Total annual fluxes suggest that the adoption of alternative water management practices that involve dry seeding and subsequent delayed flooding or intermittent irrigation can contribute to significantly reduce the global warming potential of rice cropping systems by 56 and 83%, respectively with respect to continuous flooding.

RICE EXPORT FROM INDIA: TRENDS, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

In India, agriculture is the main occupation. About 58 per cent of the population depends upon agriculture. It is the backbone of the Indian economy. In agriculture, rice is one of the most important food crops of India. It feeds more than 50 per cent of the world’s population. Rice is continues to play vital role in the national exports. India is one of the important countries in the world in export of rice. Indian rice exports are reached first place in the world markets. This study has analysed the trends and variability of rice export, assess the prospects of rice export and the various problems/constraints of rice export from India to various countries in the world. The study based on secondary data. The time series data on export of rice from India for the period 2001-02 to 2013-14.This paper indicates that there is good market for some Indian rice varieties, especially basmati rice in the world market. Pakistani basmati, as a sole competitor of India, does not have the unique aroma and taste as the Indian varieties. During 2012-13 the foreign earning from basmati rice has increased considerably. Despite considerable area being under rice cultivation in the country, the share of India in world rice export is very low which can be attributed to the fact that the average productivity of rice in the country is low and even in some rice producing states, the productivity is 40 to 50 per cent lower than the national average, in spite of having good potential capacity. The reasons of low productivity of rice in the country may be due to use of less quantity of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, more area under traditional varieties and more dependence on rain. If we want to increase our exports share in the world rice market, the production growth rate should be adequate surplus in the country. This requires careful analysis of low productivity of rice in the country. Besides, more important, the critical analysis is necessary to enquire into the constraints involved in rice export from India.

RICE EXPORT FROM INDIA: TRENDS, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

In India, agriculture is the main occupation. About 58 per cent of the population depends upon agriculture. It is the backbone of the Indian economy. In agriculture, rice is one of the most important food crops of India. It feeds more than 50 per cent of the world’s population. Rice is continues to play vital role in the national exports. India is one of the important countries in the world in export of rice. Indian rice exports are reached first place in the world markets. This study has analysed the trends and variability of rice export, assess the prospects of rice export and the various problems/constraints of rice export from India to various countries in the world. The study based on secondary data. The time series data on export of rice from India for the period 2001-02 to 2013-14.This paper indicates that there is good market for some Indian rice varieties, especially basmati rice in the world market. Pakistani basmati, as a sole competitor of India, does not have the unique aroma and taste as the Indian varieties. During 2012-13 the foreign earning from basmati rice has increased considerably. Despite considerable area being under rice cultivation in the country, the share of India in world rice export is very low which can be attributed to the fact that the average productivity of rice in the country is low and even in some rice producing states, the productivity is 40 to 50 per cent lower than the national average, in spite of having good potential capacity. The reasons of low productivity of rice in the country may be due to use of less quantity of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, more area under traditional varieties and more dependence on rain. If we want to increase our exports share in the world rice market, the production growth rate should be adequate surplus in the country. This requires careful analysis of low productivity of rice in the country. Besides, more important, the critical analysis is necessary to enquire into the constraints involved in rice export from India.

Rice mountain: assessment of the Thai rice pledging program

AbstractThe Thai Government introduced a generous price support program for paddy rice in 2011. The policy terminated in mid 2014 with the dismissal of the democratically elected Prime Minister, Ms Yingluck Shinawatra. There is an interest in understanding the welfare effects of the policy given the ongoing civil suit put against the former Prime Minister and the large stocks that remain. This study therefore analyses the welfare effects of various Thai rice policy options using a 10‐region, dynamic, stochastic, partial equilibrium model of world rice trade. It finds that while the Thai policy was effective in supporting the incomes of rice producers in the short run, the burden imposed on taxpayers and consumers seems difficult to justify.

A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the effects of world crude oil prices and world rice prices on Indonesia’s inflation rate in the period between January 2004 and September 2015. Monthly time series data spanning from January 2004 to September 2015 are analyzed using difference equation model as the econometric tool. Test result shows that there existed a dynamic effect of world oil crude prices and world rice prices on inflation rate in Indonesia. The World crude oil prices positively affected the inflation rate in that each 1% increase (decrease) in the world crude oil prices caused the inflation rate to go up (drop) by 0.33%. The world rice prices also positively affected the inflation rate, where each 1% increase (decrease) in world rice prices was followed by a 0.52% rise (fall) of the inflation rate.

開放系大気CO2増加 (FACE) によるイネコアコレクションの出穂期の前進程度における多様性

開放系大気CO2増加 (FACE) によるイネコアコレクションの出穂期の前進程度における多様性

International Trade and Risk Sharing in the Global Rice Market: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Supply Shocks

In the first decade of this millennium, rising food prices returned as a concern for policy makers, especially in developing economies. This paper examines how supply shocks, both domestic and foreign, impacted imports and consumption in the world rice market between 1960 and 2010. Such an investigation is important in assessing the role of trade in compensating for domestic shocks. If shortages lead economies to impose trade restrictions, then trade may not be allowed to play an important role in stabilizing consumption. The existing literature has highlighted the importance of these policy shocks in the world rice market and how they have worked to increase the volatility of prices and trade flows. Although trade cannot be expected to play a strong role when the major producing and consuming economies are simultaneously hit by negative yield shocks, such a scenario has occurred in only about 3% of all observed cases. We also find that consumption fails to stabilize even when domestic shocks are negative and foreign shocks are positive; however, imports do peak. Thus, while trade does help in coping with domestic risks, it is unable to achieve full risk sharing. Therefore, no matter the nature of foreign shocks, the principal concern is to stabilize consumption when an economy is hit by negative domestic yield shocks. The frequency of such shocks is about 12% in all observed cases, highlighting the importance of domestic responses. We find that domestic rice stocks have been important in stabilizing consumption. The reliance on domestic policies has, in turn, kept the rice market thin.

農業投資が食料ロスおよび国際コメ需給に与える影響

農業投資が食料ロスおよび国際コメ需給に与える影響

Distribution of Hwc2-1, a causal gene of a hybrid weakness, in the World Rice Core collection and the Japanese Rice mini Core collection: its implications for varietal differentiation and artificial selection.

A pair of complementary genes, Hwc1-1 at HWC1 locus and Hwc2-1 at HWC2 locus, cause a weakness phenomenon in rice. For this study, we performed haplotype analysis around the HWC2 locus in two core collections comprising 119 accessions. We also examined reactions to phenol and Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae (Xoo) Japanese race I. To elucidate the genetic relations among all accessions, we analyzed their banding patterns of 40 Indel markers covering the rice genome. The classification by Indel markers was almost consistent with that using 4,357 SNPs. The testcross with Hwc1-1 carrier indicated that 37 accessions carried Hwc2-1 allele, whereas 82 carried hwc2-2 allele. Strong association between HWC2 and Ph genes was observed. Based on 14 DNA markers around HWC2 locus and Ph genotype, the 119 accessions were divided into 50 haplotypes. To examine the HWC2 candidate chromosomal region specifically, the ‘haplotype group’ characterized by the six DNA markers closely linked with HWC2 were analyzed. Hwc2-1 carriers had the same haplotype group. Some hwc2-2 haplotype groups were associated with resistance against the Xoo race. The relation between varietal differentiation and haplotypes around the HWC2 locus was discussed, along with its breeding significance.

Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Mercosur rice price dynamics and analyze basis risk and hedging effectiveness for rice market agents in the region, in a simulation framework using a hypothetical regional contract price. Sample data and period was non-probabilistic, for accessibility and convenience. Mercosur rice price dynamics expressed Argentina and Uruguay rice prices moving in synchrony. Brazil rice prices were on lower levels. Also, all three pairs of rice price series are cointegrated, with one cointegrating equation. Again, results can be largely attributed to the different price data used, in Brazil was rough rice, while in Uruguay and Argentina milled white rice with 5%. Despite that, there are preliminary evidences that a Mercosur rice futures market could be feasible.

Rice transcriptome analysis to identify possible herbicide quinclorac detoxification genes.

Quinclorac is a highly selective auxin-type herbicide and is widely used in the effective control of barnyard grass in paddy rice fields, improving the world's rice yield. The herbicide mode of action of quinclorac has been proposed, and hormone interactions affecting quinclorac signaling has been identified. Because of widespread use, quinclorac may be transported outside rice fields with the drainage waters, leading to soil and water pollution and other environmental health problems. In this study, we used 57K Affymetrix rice whole-genome array to identify quinclorac signaling response genes to study the molecular mechanisms of action and detoxification of quinclorac in rice plants. Overall, 637 probe sets were identified with differential expression levels under either 6 or 24 h of quinclorac treatment. Auxin-related genes such as GH3 and OsIAAs responded to quinclorac treatment. Gene Ontology analysis showed that genes of detoxification-related family genes were significantly enriched, including cytochrome P450, GST, UGT, and ABC and drug transporter genes. Moreover, real-time RT-PCR analysis showed that top candidate genes of P450 families such as CYP81, CYP709C, and CYP72A were universally induced by different herbicides. Some Arabidopsis genes of the same P450 family were up-regulated under quinclorac treatment. We conducted rice whole-genome GeneChip analysis and the first global identification of quinclorac response genes. This work may provide potential markers for detoxification of quinclorac and biomonitors of environmental chemical pollution.

Cost and Return Comparison between Paw San Rice and Non-Paw San Rice Production in Myanmar

To increase farm income by improving yields and reducing cultivation costs of agricultural production implies suitable crop variety, application of appropriate technology, correct crop management practices, and adequate level of inputs. Myanmar’s premium rice, Paw San Mhwe, is awarded the World Best Rice at the World Rice Conference in 2011 in accordance with its distinctive characters such as the excellent eating quality with soft texture, delightful fragrance, white color with wet-polished, and especially elongation (three times longer than the original size after cooking). The domestic prices of Paw San rice in Myanmar are much higher than normal ones because of its preferred quality by Myanmar consumers. Paw San rice cultivation therefore is still preferred by some farmers; however, due to its lower yield than low-quality, high yielding varieties, the cultivation of Paw San Rice may not suggest higher income for farmers. This study aims at comparing the economic conditions between Paw San rice and other rice by using cost and return analysis. It is found that Paw San rice variety receives higher price than non-Paw San varieties. Due to its lower yield and vulnerability to diseases, the revenue and profit can be lower than non-Paw San rice. To improve Myanmar rice farmers’ income, this study suggests that improvement of yield and resistance traits of Paw San rice should be considered for Paw San rice breeding research.

Price transmission and volatility spillovers in Asian rice markets: Evidence from MGARCH and panel GARCH models

ABSTRACTThis article examines world rice price transmission and volatility spillovers across six major Asian rice markets over the period 2005-13. In addition to the conventional GARCH models, we use a panel GARCH framework to estimate the spillover effects along with the consideration of heterogeneity and interdependence among countries. Empirical results suggest that changes in the world rice price affected not only the price levels of domestic rice markets but also their conditional variances. Moreover, interdependence across rice markets contributed to a strong spillover of a price shock in one country to another within the region.