Regions Of World Research Articles

Deciphering the Sex gap in global life expectancy: the impact of female-specific cancers 1990-2019.

Females live longer than males, which results in a sex gap in life expectancy. This study examines the contribution of female cancers to this differential by world region and country 1990-2019 with special focus to the 15-69 age group. Cause-specific mortality data for 30 cancers, including four female-specific cancers from 238 countries and territories was retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Using life table techniques and demographic decomposition analysis, we estimated the contribution of cancer deaths to the sex gap in life expectancy by age and calendar period. At ages 15-69, females had a higher life expectancy than males in 2019. Countries with the largest sex gaps or the largest female advantage in life expectancy were in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia, Latin America and Southern Africa. In contrast, countries with the smallest sex gaps were mainly located in Northern Africa, Northern America, and Northern Europe. The contribution of female-specific cancers to sex gaps in life expectancy were largely negative, ranging from -0.15 years in the Western Pacific to -0.26 years in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, implying that the disproportionately higher premature cancer mortality among females contributed to a reduction in the female life expectancy advantage. Female-specific cancers are important determinants of sex gaps in life expectancy. Their negative impact on life expectancy at working and reproductive age groups has far-reaching consequences for society. Increasing the availability and access to prevention, screening, timely diagnosis, and effective treatment can reduce this gap.

Pathways for the US food processing sector under economy-wide net zero in a multisector dynamic framework

The food processing sector is a large, energy-consuming and CO2-emitting industrial sector. The sector was estimated to account for 6 % of US industrial CO2 emissions in 2020. The sector uses significant amounts of fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity to perform a range of operations such as baking, drying, and refrigeration. Additionally, the sector is tightly linked to the agriculture and land use sectors. In this analysis, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a coupled, energy-economy-agriculture-land-use-water-climate systems model, to examine the role of the food processing sector in the EMF37 2050 US net-zero CO2 scenario. We explore the implications for technology and fuel choice and go beyond to examine US food consumption, food prices, and land-use change. To better understand the sensitivity of our results to alternative developments, we assess multiple sensitivity scenarios for the US and other world regions, with a focus on varied food processing energy intensity pathways.We find that along the EMF37 US net-zero path, the food processing sector electrifies the majority of its process heat. We also find that the industry phases-down natural gas use and completely phases-out coal. Additionally, we observe a marginal decrease in US food consumption per capita relative to our reference scenario. This primarily occurs due to the increase in consumer food prices resulting from increased demand for purpose-grown biomass crops, which compete with food crops for land resources. Finally, cumulative energy savings of 4.2 EJ are achieved from 2020 to 2050 in a scenario in which the US reduces its food processing intensity to EU-15 levels.

Facilitating new financial services in Latin America: an exploratory analysis of the sandbox model

This paper presents an end-to-end analysis of Fintech-driven sandboxes, with a particular focus on Latin America. Contrary to the procedural approach characterizing sandbox research, our analysis adopted the managerial perspective, and resulted in a theoretical and applicable framework. For this purpose, we initially characterized the motives, the conditions, and expected outcomes that sustain sandbox experimentation. Subsequently, based on the analysis of web resources, we drew comparisons between cases and the literature. Third, an inverted Gioia method is utilized to guide the characterization of sandbox models within our framework. The results indicate the presence of similar patterns in sandbox experimentation, providing justification for the choices made by each model to enable Fintech entrepreneurship. These patterns include the following: Latin America’s fragmented and gradual approach to engagement; the search for market efficiencies around payments, investment, and lending; the primacy of capital flow intermediation, and the participation of both incumbent and new ventures. These findings contribute to the advancement of our knowledge about the influence of sandbox model designs on Fintech development, with practical implications for entrepreneurs and regulators. Furthermore, the framework proposed in this paper may prove beneficial in understanding institutional experimentation and advancing Fintech in other world regions beyond Latin America.

High-resolution satellite estimates of coal mine methane emissions from local to regional scales in Shanxi, China

Coal mines are significant anthropogenic sources of methane emissions, detectable and traceable from high spatial resolution satellites. Nevertheless, estimating local or regional-scale coal mine methane emission intensities based on high-resolution satellite observations remains challenging. In this study, we devise a novel interpolation algorithm based on high-resolution satellite observations (including Gaofen5-01A/02, Ziyuan-1 02D, PRISMA, GHGSat-C1 to C5, EnMAP, and EMIT) and conduct assessments of annual mean coal mine methane emissions in Shanxi Province, China, one of the world's largest coal-producing regions, spanning the period 2019 to 2023 across various scales: point-source, local, and regional. We use high-resolution satellite observations to perform interpolation-based estimations of methane emissions from three typical coal-mining areas. This approach, known as IPLTSO (Interpolation based on Satellite Observations), provides spatially explicit maps of methane emission intensities in these areas, thereby providing a novel local-scale coal mine methane emission inventory derived from high-resolution top-down observations. For regional-scale estimation and mapping, we utilize high-resolution satellite data to complement and substitute facility-level emission inventories for interpolation (IPLTSO+GCMT, Interpolation based on Satellite Observations and Global Coal Mine Tracker). We evaluate our IPLTSO and IPLTSO+GCMT estimation with emission inventories, top-down methane emission estimates from TROPOMI observations, and TROPOMI's methane concentration enhancements. The results suggest a notable right-skewed distribution of methane emission flux rates from coal mine point sources. Our IPLTSO+GCMT estimates the annual average coal mine methane emission in Shanxi Province from 2019 to 2023 at 8.9 ± 0.5 Tg/yr, marginally surpassing top-down inversion results from TROPOMI (8.5 ± 0.6 Tg/yr in 2019 and 8.6 ± 0.6 Tg/yr in 2020). Furthermore, the spatial patterns of methane emission intensity delineated by IPLTSO+GCMT and IPLTSO closely mirror those observed in TROPOMI's methane enhancements. Our comparative assessment underscores the superior performance and substantial potential of the developed interpolation algorithm based on high-resolution satellite observations for multi-scale estimation of coal mine methane emissions.

A Meta-Analysis on Teachers’ Growth Mindset

The concept of growth mindset—an individual’s beliefs that basic characteristics such as intelligence are malleable—has gained immense popularity in research, the media, and educational practice. Even though it is assumed that teachers need a growth mindset and that both teachers and their students benefit when teachers adopt a growth mindset, systematic syntheses of the potential advantages of a growth mindset in teachers are lacking. Therefore, in this article, we present the first meta-analysis on teachers’ growth mindset and its relationships with multiple outcomes (50 studies, 81 effect sizes; N = 19,555). Multilevel analyses showed a small effect across outcomes. Statistically significant small-to-typical positive associations between teachers’ growth mindset and their motivation in terms of self-efficacy and mastery goals were observed in subgroup analyses. No statistically significant relationships were found with teachers’ performance-approach goals, teachers’ performance-avoidance goals, teachers’ performance on achievement tests, or student achievement. Teachers’ growth mindset was related to instructional practices in terms of mastery goal structures but unrelated to performance goal structures. Moderator analyses indicated that the dimensionality of the mindset measure (recoded from a fixed mindset to a growth mindset measure vs. assessed as a growth mindset), item referent and content of the mindset measure, publication status (published vs. unpublished), world region, educational level, and study quality influenced the strengths of some of the relationships. Overall, our findings extend knowledge about teachers’ mindset and add to the evidence base on teacher characteristics and their links to relevant outcomes.

Mismatches in Health: A Global Analysis of Discrepancies Between Self-Reported and Tested Mobility and Cognition

The health of individuals is frequently assessed based on self-reported information derived from surveys. However, self-reports are often inconsistent with their tested equivalents, indicating measurement issues. While discrepancies between self-reported and tested health indicators have been investigated for high-income countries in Europe, little comparative research has been conducted involving other low-income regions. This paper analyses discrepancies between self-reported and tested health limitations across 25 countries from six world regions with different income-levels, cultural backgrounds, institutional settings, and epidemiological trajectories. Using harmonised data from the Gateway to Global Aging, we match self-reported mobility and cognition with their tested equivalent to assess discrepancies at the individual level. Our results suggest that the consistency between these measures is strongly correlated with the Human Development Index, with lower scores of development showing higher discrepancies. Examining patterns by age reveals that self-reports do not accurately reflect the deterioration of health associated with aging – tested health exhibits a pronounced age gradient, whereas self-reported health varies little over the life course, particularly self-reported memory. We find no persistent gender differences in consistency. These discrepancies cast doubt on the reliability of mobility and cognitive self-reports, especially when comparing health across nations with differing development levels. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Levels and Trends of Health Expectancy: Understanding its Measurement and Estimation Sensitivity”.

Ideological and Populist Bases of Partisan Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America

This research note explores variation in how political parties and presidents in Latin America responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Relying on the Chapel Hill Expert Survey-Latin America (CHES-LA), we argue that preferences regarding the trade-off between virus containment and maintaining an open economy were shaped by the ideological positions of presidents and parties, particularly for more programmatic ones. This is largely consistent with findings in other world regions. Yet, beyond ideological orientation, populism, also had an important – though heterogeneous – effect on response preferences, with non-populists, particularly highly programmatic ones, more consistently supporting virus containment. In addition, both incumbents and more populist presidents and parties favoured further concentration of executive power to address the pandemic. These findings provide evidence of the importance of understanding how ideology, populism and programmatic linkages interact in Latin America’s party systems.

Evaluation of Geohazards Research in the World and Pacific Region: A Comparative Bibliometric Study

Geohazards are natural phenomena that endanger infrastructure, the environment, and human activity. Understanding and mitigating them is crucial for public safety, disaster preparedness, and sustainable land and resource management. This research objective is to analyze geohazard research trends globally and then compare them with countries around the Pacific Ring. Ninety-six geohazard publications were analyzed using bibliometric analysis and the VOSviewer application. The general trend of geohazard research increased slightly. It is critical in dealing with the expanding threats posed by geohazards, adapting to changing conditions, protecting vulnerable people, and leveraging technological improvements for more effective hazard management and disaster risk reduction. The Annual Offshore Technology Conference Proceedings and Engineering Geology are the most popular scholarly journals for authors to publish research on geohazard. The most popular topic area for geohazard papers is Earth and Planetary Sciences, followed by engineering, environmental science, and computer science. It is consistent with the growing use of technology in geohazard research. This study also includes an authorship profile. This research implies enhancing disaster risk reduction strategies and contributing to global efforts to address the challenges posed by geohazards.

The Palaeozoic of a future high potential hydrocarbon fold-thrust belt through the Zagros Basin, Iran

The Zagros Fold-and-Thrust Belt is one of the world's richest hydrocarbon regions, with Palaeozoic sediments being a key element in hydrocarbon plays. The main aim of this research is to provide a model for the formation and development of the sedimentary basin during the Palaeozoic Era in the Zagros and Persian Gulf regions. We utilize data from exploratory wells and surface outcrops of Palaeozoic sediments specifically in the northern parts of Iran's Zagros Mountains. The seismic profiles of the eastern region of the Persian Gulf provide more detailed information due to their distance from the Zagros hinterland. The investigation reveals that folds with wavelengths of several tens of km were formed on the Infra-Cambrian Hormuz Salt or its equivalent décollement.This study has identified halokinetic activities as the primary cause of Palaeozoic deformations in the Zagros region, with tectonic and orogenic factors playing a secondary role. The Palaeozoic sediments are divided into pre-kinematic, syn-kinematic and post-kinematic categories. Sedimentary sequences possibly including the Palaeozoic hydrocarbon source rock could be present throughout the study area.

Holocene dust storm variations across northern monsoonal Asia and arid central Asia: Contrasting impacts of climate change

Arid inner Asia, encompassing northern monsoonal Asia (NMA) and arid central Asia (ACA), is the world's second largest dust source region, emitting large quantities of dust particles that travel vast distances around the globe. Previous studies have revealed that the precipitation/moisture variations between NMA and ACA show an out-of-phase or anti-phase relationship on a multi-millennial timescale during the Holocene. However, considering the profound impact of precipitation and related vegetation changes on dust storms, it is unclear whether disparities exist in the variations and mechanisms governing Holocene dust storms between these two regions. Here we use a compilation of Holocene dust storm records from both NMA and ACA, combined with proxy–model comparisons, to demonstrate a consistent temporal pattern of dust storm activity between these regions, with an overall increasing trend on a multi-millennial timescale during the Holocene. Comparison of these dust storm records with regional climate records reveals that surface landscape dominated by the summer monsoon precipitation were the dominant controls on dust storm activity in NMA during the Holocene. In contrast, given the Holocene wetting trend observed for ACA, we propose that precipitation had only a limited influence on modulating the regional dust storms in this region; furthermore, the increasing frequency of dust storms cannot be attributed to decreasing winter monsoon intensity. Instead, we argue that the intensified dust storms in ACA during the late Holocene were triggered by the increased strength and northward (southward) movement of the spring (summer) westerly jet. By revealing the differences in the mechanisms of dust storms across arid inner Asia, our findings provide a scientific basis for implementing policies for dust storm management that can be adapted to meet specific local conditions.

Evidence-based data support strategies for the prevention of Hymenoptera venom anaphylaxis.

This review aims to identify phenotypes at-risk of Hymenoptera venom-induced anaphylaxis (HVA), focusing on different perspectives (epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic) in order to adapt future preventive strategies. HVA remains one of the leading causes of anaphylaxis, with a broad pattern of symptoms. Although most cases occur outside healthcare settings, data indicate a high emergency admission rate due to insect stings. Mortality is often underestimated because of the lack of witnesses and difficulties in recognizing the signs and the culprit. Targeting risk factors could be a clue to improve these statistics and the prognosis of the disease.Potential risk factors for severe HVA in the European population are basal serum tryptase (BST) above 8 μg, mast cell disorders, the absence of skin symptoms, and cardiovascular conditions requiring the use of beta blockers and ACE inhibitors. Identifying these criteria, mainly based on clinical patterns, helps to develop personalized strategies for management and prevention. With a personalized medicine approach, phenotypes must be characterized to adapt to the management of patients suffering from Hymenoptera venom anaphylaxis (HVA), including venom immunotherapy (VIT). In this systematic review, all articles mentioned systemic reactions with heterogeneous severity degrees. Half of those reported grade III-IV systemic reactions (Ring and Messmer). HVA clinical patterns could be worsened by one Hymenoptera sting, a patient's history with mast cell disorders, or cardiovascular diseases. VIT failure was attributed to bee venom extract and monotherapy in two-thirds of publications. Findings stress the difficulty of having uniform epidemiological data on HVA and the lack of financial support in some world regions to support appropriate management of these conditions. Although observing a heterogeneity of data, we were able to identify potential risk factors, in particular for the severe cases. We believe our work will support allergists and health professionals to implement improved personalized management of patients suffering from severe HVA.

An overview of global CME/CPD systems

Purpose Engagement in CME/CPD has a positive impact on healthcare professionals’ (HCPs) knowledge, skills, and performance, and on patient outcomes, therefore it is critical to better understand the components of CME/CPD systems that foster engagement, high-quality education, and impact. Methods An assessment of CME/CPD systems was conducted using a mixed-methods approach that included interviews with in-country subject matter experts and qualitative and quantitative data from practicing in-country physicians. Results Results demonstrate areas of consistency in CME/CPD systems across world regions that included: types of educational providers; types of credit; educational formats; self-tracking of participation; high-degree of compliance when education is mandatory; overall satisfaction with available education; strong support for interprofessional education; and lack of alignment or evaluation of engagement in education with population health outcomes. Areas of variation included: whether engagement in education is required as a condition to practice medicine; whether regulations are uniformly applied; if mechanisms to ensure independence existed; and physician perceptions of independence. Conclusion Results of this assessment maybe used by a variety of different stakeholders to assess how well country-level CME/CPD systems are meeting the needs of practicing physicians and determine what, if any, changes might need to be implemented to improve outcomes.

Demography and natural history of the damselfly Mesamphiagrion gaudiimontanum (Coenagrionidae), a Páramo endemic species in the Colombian Andes

The páramos are high mountain ecosystems in the tropical regions of the New World, and they are particularly threatened by climate change. The Belmira páramo complex in Colombia is home to Mesamphiagrion gaudiimontanum, an endemic and endangered damselfly species. This study presents the first demographic assessment of M. gaudii­montanum using the capture-recapture method to estimate population size, survival, and detection probabilities, focusing on differences in age, sex, female color morphs, and parasite infestation. The population size was estimated to be 730 ± 186.59 individuals, with an average survival probability of 0.89 ± 0.04 and a life expectancy of 8.34 days, these data are like the reported for other populations in the same genus in harsh environmental conditions. Ectoparasitic mites were more common on juveniles than adults. After several hours of observing the species few copula events have been recorded, all of them involving juvenile adult females, which points to a monandrous reproduction syndrome for the species. Another phenomenon observed in the species was a change in coloration due to body temperature in individuals, in which bright coloration becomes grayish in cold weather. This study provides fundamental data for future monitoring and conservation efforts, highlighting the species’ vulnerability to environmental changes and the need for specific conservation strategies.

Worldwide distribution of genetic factors related to severity of COVID-19 infection

Background Genome-wide association studies of COVID-19 severity have been carried out mostly on European or East Asian populations with small representation of other world regions. Here we explore the worldwide distribution and linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns of genetic variants previously associated with COVID-19 severity. Methods We followed up the results of a large Spanish genome-wide meta-analysis on 26 populations from the 1000 Genomes Project by calculating allele frequencies and LD scores of the nine most significant SNPs. We also used the entire set of summary statistics to compute polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and carried out comparisons at the population and continental level. Results We observed the strongest differences among continental regions for the five top SNPs in chromosome 3. European, American, and South Asian populations showed similar LD patterns. Average PRSs in South Asian and American populations were consistently higher than those observed in Europeans. While PRS distributions were similar among South Asians, the American populations showed striking differences among them. Conclusions Considering the caveats of PRS transferability across ethnicities, our analysis showed that American populations present the highest genetic risk score, hence potentially higher propensity, for COVID-19 severity. Independent validation is warranted with additional summary statistics and phenotype data.

The Global Adolescent Fertility Decline is Counteracted by Increasing Teen Births in Sub-Saharan Africa.

There is a lack of understanding of the persistence of elevated teen fertility rates in certain regions and countries, in contrast to the significant decline observed in other regions globally. This report considers fertility trends among 15- to 19-year olds in the period 1950-2020 and explores potential driving factors behind the significant shifts that occurred over this period. The countries where teen fertility remains high are those with fast-growing populations, primarily located in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries with higher teen fertility are typically characterized by limited use of modern contraception, lower education levels, and early marriage. Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the world region with the most teen births, increasing its proportion of global teen births from 12 percent in 1950 to 47 percent in 2020, a time during which this region's share of the global adolescent (15-19) population grew from 7.5 percent to 19 percent. By 2035, 67 percent of all teen births globally are projected to occur in this region. Consequently, the future number of births to teenage mothers will to a large extent depend on the development in sub-Saharan Africa over the coming decades.

A Review of Precision Irrigation Water-Saving Technology under Changing Climate for Enhancing Water Use Efficiency, Crop Yield, and Environmental Footprints

Water is considered one of the vital natural resources and factors for performing short- and long-term agricultural practices on Earth. Meanwhile, globally, most of the available freshwater resources are utilized for irrigation purposes in agriculture. Currently, many world regions are facing extreme water shortage problems, which can worsen if not managed properly. In the literature, numerous methods and remedies are used to cope with the increasing global water crises. The use of precision irrigation water-saving systems (PISs) for efficient water management under climate change is one of them and is a highly recommended approach by researchers. It can mitigate the adverse effects of changing climate and help enhance water use efficiency, crop yield, and environmental footprints. Thus, the present study aimed to comprehensively examine and review PISs, focusing on their development, implementation, and positive impacts on sustainable water management. In addition, we searched the literature using different online search engines and reviewed and summarized the main results of the previously published papers on PISs. We discussed the traditional irrigation method and its modernization for enhancing water use efficiency, PIS monitoring and controlling, architecture, data sharing communication technologies, the role of artificial intelligence for irrigation water-saving, and the future prospects of the PIS. Based on the brief literature review, the present study concluded that the future of PISs seems bright, driven by the need for efficient irrigation water management systems, technological advancements, and increasing environmental awareness. As the water scarcity problem intensifies due to climate change and population growth, the PIS is poised to play a critical role in optimizing and modernizing water usage, increasing water use efficiency, and reducing environmental footprints, thus ensuring sustainable agriculture development.

International student mobility in Southern-Latin Europe: beyond the EU logics, towards a new space

This paper discusses international student mobility (ISM) in Southern-Latin Europe, specifically Italy, Portugal, and Spain, analysing the inflow of international students as reflected in the UNESCO, OECD and European Commission databases. Only recently Italy, Portugal and Spain, as latecomers, have become more actively involved in ISM dynamics. This trend has been a response to EU pressures to internationalization, instrumented through the consolidation of the Bologna process and the need to build a common space of higher education. The analysis shows that at the intra-European level Italy, Portugal and Spain share similar ISM patterns; however, in the global context other logics shape ISM dynamics. This study confirms the great potential that Italy, Portugal and Spain, or the Southern-Latin European space, have to attract international students both from the EU and from other world regions.

Effects of firebricks for industrial process heat on the cost of matching all-sector energy demand with 100% wind-water-solar supply in 149 countries.

Refractory bricks are bricks that can withstand high temperatures without damage to their structures. They have been used to insulate kilns, furnaces, and other hot enclosures for thousands of years. Firebricks are refractory bricks that can, with one composition, store heat, and with another, insulate the firebricks that store the heat. Because firebricks are made from common materials, the cost per kilowatt-hour-thermal of a firebrick storage system is less than one-tenth the cost per kilowatt-hour-electricity of a battery system. It has thus been hypothesized that using excess renewable electricity to produce and store industrial process heat in firebricks can provide a low-cost source of continuous heat for industry. Here, it is hypothesized further that, upon a transition to 100% clean, renewable energy worldwide, using firebricks to store industrial process heat can reduce electricity generator, electricity storage, and low-temperature heat storage needs, thereby reducing overall energy cost. Both hypotheses are tested across 149 countries combined into 29 world regions. Results suggest, relative to a base case with no firebricks, using firebricks may reduce, among all 149 countries, 2050 battery capacity by ∼14.5%, annual hydrogen production for grid electricity by ∼31%, underground low-temperature heat storage capacity by ∼27.3%; onshore wind nameplate capacity by ∼1.2%, land needs by ∼0.4%, and overall annual energy cost by ∼1.8%. In sum, the use of firebricks for storing industrial process heat appears to be a remarkable tool in reducing the cost of transitioning to clean, renewable energy across all energy sectors.

Analysing the drivers for sustainable public procurement

Sustainable public procurement (SPP) is aimed at using government purchasing power to foster sustainable production and consumption and develop more sustainable business models. The implementation of SPP has been undertaken through several disciplinary approaches, including practical and research efforts based on organisational change management (OCM). Although there is a growing body of literature on OCM for SPP, research on this topic is still limited and mostly focused on a single-country context. This paper aims to fill this research gap by analysing the drivers for changes towards SPP from two different world regions. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twelve Brazilian and ten Swedish SPP professionals. The interviews were analysed using Grounded Theory’s constant comparative method. From the interviews, 46 drivers were collated, then ranked in order of importance, and categorised according to their level (external, connecting, and internal). From the interviews, twenty-two new drivers were identified. The findings show that drivers for SPP are context-specific and can be organised in a continuum of change approaches between praxis-driven and policy-driven. This study highlights the contextual influence on drivers for the SPP process. A holistic approach is needed for changes towards SPP, considering internal, connecting, and external drivers in the spectrum from praxis to policy.

Recent and near‐term future changes in impacts‐relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world's Mediterranean climate regions

AbstractChange over recent decades in the world's five Mediterranean Climate Regions (MCRs) of quantities of relevance to water resources, ecosystems and fire are examined for all seasons and placed in the context of changes in large‐scale circulation. Near‐term future projections are also presented. It is concluded that, based upon agreement between observational data sets and modelling frameworks, there is strong evidence of radiatively‐driven drying of the Chilean MCR in all seasons and southwest Australia in winter. Observed drying trends in California in fall, southwest southern Africa in fall, the Pacific Northwest in summer and the Mediterranean in summer agree with radiatively‐forced models but are not reproduced in a model that also includes historical sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, raising doubt about the human‐origin of these trends. Observed drying in the Mediterranean in winter is stronger than can be accounted for by radiative forcing alone and is also outside the range of the SST‐forced ensemble. It is shown that near surface vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is increasing almost everywhere but that, surprisingly, this is contributed to in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics to mid‐latitudes by a decline in low‐level specific humidity. The Southern Hemisphere drying, in terms of precipitation and specific humidity, is related to a poleward shift and strengthening of the westerlies with eddy‐driven subsidence on the equatorward side. Model projections indicate continued drying of Southern Hemisphere MCRs in winter and spring, despite ozone recovery and year‐round drying in the Mediterranean. Projections for the North American MCR are uncertain, with a large contribution from internal variability, with the exception of drying in the Pacific Northwest in summer. Overall the results indicate continued aridification of MCRs other than in North America with important implications for water resources, agriculture and ecosystems.