World Oil Prices Research Articles

Russia’s budget system in 2024. preliminary results and emerging trends

The revenues of all components of the Russian budget system showed positive growth rates in January-September 2024. Revenues to the federal budget have increased most significantly, both from oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues. The pronounced dependence of federal budget revenues on world oil prices remains, provoking the budget execution risks. The growth rate of revenues of the consolidated (enlarged) budget of the country lagged behind the growth of federal budget revenues, but outpaced the rate of inflation. The excess of last year’s values in real terms occurred both in terms of tax revenues, social insurance premiums and other taxes and fees. Compared to last year, the receipts of practically all taxes have increased. The exception is budget revenues from corporate income tax, which have decreased even by nominal values. Regional budget revenues increased only in nominal terms. Here, against the background of nominal growth of own income, there was an absolute reduction in intergovernmantal transfers. The drop in regional budget revenues from corporate income tax in many regions of the Russian Federation was not offset by an increase in personal income tax revenues. The dynamics of expenditures of the components of the budget system in the first 9 months of the year also outstripped inflation.

Do International Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Agricultural Credit Matter for Farmers’ Term of Trade in Indonesia? Empirical Evidence of Multiple Thresholds and Asymmetric Effects

Farmers still survive as a livelihood for some of the Indonesian population as the dominant economic sector shifts from agriculture to industry and services. This study investigates the influence of international prices of crude oil, fertilizer, and animal feed ingredients, as well as exchange rates, domestic inflation, agricultural credit, and food production indices on farmers' terms of trade (TOT). The study applies a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with multiple thresholds. The data used are monthly data for the period January 2010 to October 2023. Through multiple thresholds, the negative impact of world oil prices is significant in the middle level of changes in oil prices on farmers' TOT. Fuel subsidies to farmer households allow the impact of significant changes in oil prices to dampen farmers' TOT. Depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate significantly reduces farmers' TOT. Conversely, appreciation significantly increases farmers' TOT. Domestic inflation has significantly pressured farmers' TOT in the short run, while agricultural credit significantly increased farmers' TOT. The food industry production index significantly encourages an increase in farmers' TOT. The subsidy programs, especially fuel and fertilizer subsidies directly to farmers, are the action to reduce the impact of rising prices of imported crude oil and fertilizer.

Analisis Tingkat Suku Bunga Bank, Subsidi BBM dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of bank interest rates, fuel subsidies and world oil prices on inflation in Indonesia for the 2006-2021 period. The scope of this study focuses on the variables to be studied, namely bank interest rates, fuel subsidies, world oil prices and inflation. in Indonesia with a research period of 2006-2021. Annual data in the form of quantitative data is used in this study. The research method used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The Eviews program serves as the software used in this study. The results of this research analysis show that bank interest rates and world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on inflation, and fuel subsidies have a negative and insignificant effect on inflation.

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING STOCK PRICES OF COMPANIES IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Based on data from BPS (Statistics Indonesia) for 2019-2021, the agricultural sector in Indonesia dominated employment and attracted investment interest from various parties. This study analyzes the impact of fundamental analysis and macroeconomic variables on the fluctuations in stock prices of agricultural sector companies from 2019 to 2023. The aim is to examine the effects of Return on Assets (ROA), Price-Earnings Ratio (PER), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and Earnings Price Ratio (EPR) on the stock price movements of agricultural sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The study employs a descriptive analysis method, involving the collection, organization, and analysis of data to accurately depict the investigated issue. Data collection was conducted at the IDX from 2019 to 2023 through library research methods, using secondary data in the form of financial reports of agricultural sector companies available on www.idx.co.id. The study utilizes a simple regression analysis model with Eviews 6.0 software to process statistical and econometric data. The panel data combines time series and cross-section data, analyzed using fixed effect and random effect approaches to estimate the regression model. Estimation methods include pooled regression/pooled least squares, assuming constant coefficients for each time and space. The research results indicate that the LSDV/FEM panel regression model is the best, with variables such as DER, Earnings Per Share (EPS), PER, ROA, world oil prices, and the rupiah exchange rate collectively having a significant impact on stock prices in the agricultural sector. Additionally, classical assumption analysis shows that the data is stationary, normally distributed, free from multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. The managerial implication of these findings is that investors should consider purchasing stocks in the agricultural sector, taking into account fundamental conditions, macroeconomic factors, and technical analysis.

Determinants of Export Volume Oil Indonesian Raw Materials to Main Destination Countries

Crude Oil, which has long been a mainstay sector in Indonesia's exports, contributes greatly to state revenue, thus driving the pace of national economic growth. In the context of the Indonesian economy, the crude oil industry plays an indispensable role, especially over the past few decades. This study aims to identify the factors that affect the volume of Indonesia's crude oil exports to nine main destination countries—including Japan, South Korea, China, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, the United States, and Taiwan—in the period from 2003 to 2022. Some of the variables analyzed include exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices. Through the regression analysis method of panel data, the results of this study indicate that simultaneously, exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices have a significant effect on Indonesia's crude oil exports to these countries. Separately, the world exchange rate and oil price variables had a significant negative influence on Indonesia's crude oil export volume, while the foreign investment and production variables showed a positive and significant influence on export volume during the 2003-2022 research period.

Macroeconomic Forces Affecting Islamic Performance Indices

This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic factors that impact the performance of Malaysia's Islamic stock market. This study looks at six independent variables that affect the performance of the Islamic stock market in Malaysia: the world oil price, inflation rate, Islamic interbank rate, money supply (M2), industrial activity index, inflation rate, Islamic interbank rate, exchange rate, and world oil price. The Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Bursa Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Eikon Thomson Reuters were among the secondary data sources used in this study's quantitative data gathering methodology. The research was carried out over four years (2019–2023) using monthly data. A theoretical model was created to investigate the suggested relationship after it was analyzed using the E-views software. The success of the Islamic stock market was found to be significantly correlated with the inflation rate, money supply, Islamic interbank rate, and exchange rate. These determinants are exerting a direct influence on the Islamic stock market in Malaysia, particularly in its macroeconomic aspects. The present study aims to enhance comprehension regarding the possible effects of different elements on how well the Islamic stock market performs. Different results could come from more research into the various elements affecting the Islamic stock market's performance.

MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS IN INFLUENCING STOCK PRICE MOVEMENT ON THE INDONESIAN SHARIA STOCK INDEX 2018-2022

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables and world oil prices in influencing stock price movements on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in 2018-2022. In this case, stock price movements can be influenced by several factors, one of which is macroeconomics. The research methodology used in this study is to use a quantitative research approach and secondary data type, with quarterly samples from each year 2018 to 2022 which amounted to. The research model carried out is log linear regression panel data analysis conducted through the chow test and classical assumptions using Eviews 10 tools. Based on the results of this study, it states that partially shows the variables of Inflation, BI Interest Rate Economic Growth (GDP) and Money Supply. While simultaneously all variables did not have a significant effect on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI).

The Impact of the Last Two Presidential Periods on the Performance of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges: An Approach of Arbitrage Pricing Theory

This study aims to examine the influence of economic and non-economic macro factors on the performance of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and the differences in their effects on the last two presidential terms using the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) approach. The macro factors studied are an aggregate of 41 indicators of stock market index returns, benchmark interest rates, exchange rates, economic stability indicators, commodity prices, and corruption perception index (CPI). For the process of aggregation and identification of macro factors, this study uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The population studied were publicly listed companies on the IDX since October 2004 (299 companies) with a sample size of 157 companies. The observation period is 205 months: 120 months of the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and 85 months of the presidency of Joko Widodo (JKW). The research design used the explanatory study method. The research model was analyzed using panel data regression. The results identified seven macro factor aggregates from 41 indicators studied: global index, macro economy, world oil prices, China index, Arabia index, inflation, and competitive resources. There was a simultaneous effect of macro factors on stock performance during the presidency of SBY and JKW. Partially, stock returns during the SBY era were positively influenced by the global index, world oil prices, the China index, the Arabian index, and inflation and negatively influenced by the macroeconomy. Meanwhile, during the JKW period, returns were positively influenced by the global, China, and Arabia indexes and inflation.

Analisis Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) dan Perubahan Respon Kebijakan Moneter

The purpose of this study is to determine how the implementation of inflation targeting framework (ITF) and how the changes in monetary policy response. The data period starts from 2014 to 2023, with monthly data. The data analysis method used is a model of two interrelated simultaneous equations, called Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). The results of this study explain that the exogenous variables in the first equation of real interest rates, inflation, inflation gap, output gap have a positive and significant effect on the BI rate. Exogenous variables in the second equation, namely inflation target, BI rate, exchange rate, WTI world oil price have a positive and significant effect on inflation. However, the output gap has a negative and significant effect on inflation, and the money supply has no significant effect on inflation. The change in monetary policy response is seen from the increase or decrease of BI rate by 25 Basis points

The Effects of Various Internal and External Factors on the Movement of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study analyzed several factors that affect the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. The use of the inflation-currency rate, the availability of money, and the BI rate were all internal factors considered in this study. Meanwhile, the external factors used in this study were international gold and oil prices. The Engle-Granger Error Correction Model was used to analyze time series data in this study. The research used the monthly period started from May 2013 until January 2022. The long-term results of the research variables that could influence the exchange rate, total money supply, world oil prices, and world gold prices were all dependent on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. Meanwhile, the factors that influence the short-term movement of the ISSI exchange rates were inflation, and the BI rate variables.

The Model of Stock Pricing Banking Sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the Government of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Joko Widodo

Differences in macroeconomic conditions between the SBY and JKW government periods can significantly impact stock prices within the banking sector, especially when the economy experiences fluctuations, leading to increased stock price volatility. This research aims to assess the influence of various macroeconomic factors, including the Global index, macroeconomics, world oil prices, China index, Arab index, competitive resources, and inflation, on banking sector returns from October 2004 to October 2014. The analysis utilizes the arbitrage pricing theory, difference test, and mean absolute deviation. The study divides the analysis into high-return and low-return groups for each government period. Findings indicate that macroeconomic factors exert a simultaneous influence on return groups during both SBY and Jokowi's administrations. However, for JKW high returns, these factors do not significantly impact them. Specifically, the Global Index, China Index, Arab Index, Resource Competitiveness, and Inflation show a positive correlation with both high and low returns during SBY term. Conversely, during JKW tenure, only the Global Index and China Index exhibit positive effects on high and low returns. The difference test reveals disparities in the Arab index for high and low returns of SBY, while only the Global index displays differences for JKW. The variations in high returns between SBY and Jokowi stem from discrepancies in the Global and Arab indices, while no distinctions exist in low returns between the two administrations. Additionally, the mean absolute return values for high returns during JKW era demonstrate the smallest accuracy, indicating potential limitations in the predictive power of the model during this period.

Impact of Commodity Price and Exchange Rate on IHSG with Geopolitics as Moderation

This research aims to determine the influence of world gold prices, world oil prices, world coal prices, and exchange rates on the Indonesian composite stock index. The tests of the ponder are Indonesia's world oil prices, world gold prices, world coal prices, trade rate, geopolitical chance record, and composite stock prices for Indonesia, data from www.investing.com and www.policyuncertainty.com January 2020 to December 2023. The method used to analyze the data in this research is multiple regression analysis and residual tests for moderator variables. Through F test analysis it is known that simultaneously all variables X have a significant influence on the Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index at the 5% level. Based on these results, the research hypothesis is accepted. Furthermore, through t-test analysis (subtest), the variables of world gold prices, world oil prices, world coal prices, and exchange rates have a partially significant influence on the Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index at a confidence level of 100. It turns out to be 95% (a = 5%). It can be concluded that changes in these variables influence changes in the Indonesian composite stock index. In addition, geopolitical variables cannot moderate the relationship between all variables X and Y. This shows that geopolitical factors do not play a significant role in this context. The variation in the Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index of 88.0 can be explained by combining all variables X. The remaining 12.0% can be explained by other factors not included in the estimation model.

Cointegration of Banking Performance on World Oil Prices

Cointegration of Banking Performance on World Oil Prices

Energy security and its determinants in New Zealand

New Zealand relies on imported fossil fuels for about 38% of its primary energy. The country’s energy demand is expected to grow due to population and economic growth, which will put more pressure on the energy system. Besides, resource scarcity, energy price volatility, and environmental challenges have made energy security a major concern for New Zealand and other countries. Given the lack of significant research on the effects of energy security factors in New Zealand, this study aims to shed light on the primary determinants of energy security using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag method based on time series data from 1978 to 2021. The study found that a long-run link exists between energy security and energy intensity (energy efficiency), renewable energy use, fossil fuel consumption, and global oil prices. Real GDP, renewable energy consumption, and energy security were found to improve energy security, while fossil fuel consumption and world oil prices had a negative impact. The study also revealed a one-way causality from real GDP, fossil fuel consumption, and renewable energy use to energy security. In contrast, the relationship between energy intensity and energy security is bidirectional. Simulation results showed that global crude oil prices have a lower impact on energy security compared to other variables and are most responsive to a 5% shock in fossil fuel consumption, followed by economic growth.

Determinants of Inflation in Indonesia: Do Changes in World Oil Prices Matter?

This research was conducted to investigate the effect of world oil prices, interest rates, and money supply on inflation in Indonesia. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method. The data used were monthly data from January 2014-May to 2022. The results show that interest rates do not significantly affect inflation in the short or long run. Money supply has a negative relationship with inflation in the short and long run. In the short term, world oil prices have a negative effect on inflation. Meanwhile, world oil prices have a positive and significant relationship with inflation in the long run. This finding implies that it is necessary to emphasize policies other than interest rates when controlling inflation, such as more straightforward bureaucratic policies, ease of investment services, and a more effective import trading system. Bank Indonesia should also remain consistent and focus on prudence when implementing macroeconomic policies. The government must also consider the timeframe for determining the oil price policy because it has different short-term and long-term effects.

Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Index Dow Jones, Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia dan Inflasi Terhadap IHSG Tahun 2020 - 2023

This study aims to determine and analyze the influence of world oil prices, the Dow Jones index, the Indonesian Bank interest rate, and inflation on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IHSG). The population in this study consists of IHSG data from 2020 to 2023. The sampling technique used in this study is a census technique where the entire population of the study is taken as a sample. The analytical tool used is multiple linear regression. The results of this study indicate that world oil prices, the Dow Jones index, the Indonesian Bank interest rate, and inflation have an influence on the IHSG

Analisis Dilema Kebijakan Pemerintah dalam Menaikkan Harga Subsidi Bahan Bakar Minyak di Indonesia pada Tahun 2022

The government officially increased the price of fuel oil as a result of the increase in world oil prices and made the state budget funds swell. This research was conducted with the aim of examining various considerations made by the government when raising fuel prices in Indonesia. This research uses a literature study research method with a qualitative descriptive method. The data sources used are secondary data obtained through journal articles, books, news, and websites. The results of this study found that the government felt a dilemma so that it was forced to increase fuel prices due to the swelling of state budget funds for fuel oil consumption, but on the other hand, the impact if fuel prices increased, the prices of goods and services would increase so that inflation occurred. On the other hand, there is an alternative solution to buy oil from Russia which is below the market price, however, if that happens, it can offend western countries and hurt Indonesia's foreign policy with non-aligned movements. An alternative that the government can take is to increase fuel prices while still providing assistance to ensure that the community does not experience the impact too deeply. In addition the government invite people to switch to using electric vehicles to reduce fuel consumption and reduce the impact of carbon emissions produced, as electric vehicles are considered more economical and environmentally friendly

Peran Inflasi Dalam Memoderasi Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG)

Investors can use the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) to see how a country's economy is trending and decide when they will buy and sell shares. However, movements in the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) are not only influenced by the macroeconomic situation in the country, but also by the world economy. This research seeks to quantify the influence/impact of the Exchange Rate, Interest (BI Rate), GDP, World Gold Prices and World Oil Prices on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange with Inflation as a moderating variable for the period 2020 - 2022. In this research, the research used is quantitative descriptive research. By using documentation techniques and library methods, secondary data was collected for data collection for this research. The research population consisted of 36 data using a sampling method, namely saturated sampling. The data in this study was tested using a program known as SmartPLS 3.2.9. The data analysis technique is using the Partial Least Squares structural equation which is carried out using two-stage modeling and testing procedures. The results of this research explain that the exchange rate, interest (BI Rate), world gold prices and world oil prices do not have a significant impact on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). Meanwhile, GDP has a positive and significant impact on the IHSG. Inflation does not have the capability to moderate the relationship between exchange rates, interest (BI rate), GDP, world gold prices and world oil prices on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG)

Time Series Analysis of Poverty Reduction Indicators: Case of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

This paper investigated the indicators of poverty reduction. The independent variables are financial development, military expenditure, remittances, trade openness and world oil prices. A time series analysis was conducted from 1980 to 2016. The ADF and Phillip-Perron unit root tests were applied to find the level of co-integration. The study researched the long-run relationship between independent and dependent variables by applying the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound testing approach. The order of integration according to the unit root test is mixed for the variables. In all three countries, the ARDL bound testing approach found the long-run relationship between poverty and its indicators.

Macroeconomic factors and government bond yield in Indonesia

The issuance of bonds by the government attracts the interest of many investors, including foreigners. The government must understand the factors determining bond yields for managing government debt. This study aims to investigate the effect of domestic and global macroeconomic variables on government bond yields in Indonesia. The paper uses monthly data from November 2014 to December 2022. The research sample comprises government bonds with 5, 10, and 15-year tenor bonds. The GARCH (1,1) and GARCH-M (1,1) models are applied to estimate and analyze the determinants of government bond yields. Research findings reveal that Indonesian interest rates significantly affect the yield of 10- and 15-year tenor bonds. Inflation has no impact on bond yields across all tenors. The increase in foreign exchange reserves reduces bond yields in all tenors. The Indonesian stock exchange index is detrimental to long-term bond yields. The exchange rate has a positive impact on bond yields in all tenors. World oil prices significantly impact yields on 5- and 10-year tenor bonds. The Fed’s interest rate positively affects the yield on the 15-year tenor bond. The implication of these findings for the Indonesian government is the implementation of several aspects of economic and financial policies that can improve state debt management and financial market stability.