World Prices Research Articles

Recent Input-Output Price Policy in Pakistan's Agriculture: Effects on Producers and Consumers

The paper analyses the impact of the input-output price policy in agriculture on producers and consumers. Trends in prices cause immense resource transfers from agriculture. with adverse consequences for investment, output, employment, and income distribution. To the extent that these transfers accrue to industrialists and the government, the poorest benefit the least. These deleterious effects can be minimised by assured world prices for agriculture and restoration of true competition in agricultural commodity and input marlcets. In agricultural input marlcets, elimination of corruption; excessive profiteering and overstaffing should serve as the basis of a cost reduction strategyand removal of input subsidies. In the specific case of irrigation water, equitable distribution, compatibility of water rate assessment and water supply bases, and elimination of overstaffing are the prime issues deserving immediate government attention.

EFFECT OF CREDIT ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN NIGERIA (1980-2018)

This study examined the effect of credit on agricultural exports in Nigeria. Time series data spanning the period between 1980 and 2018 were obtained from publications of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Food and Agriculture Organisation database. Data were analysed using means, coefficient of variation, co-integration analysis and vector error correction mechanism (VECM). Descriptive results revealed a fluctuating trend in the volume of agricultural exports and credit to the agricultural sector with a mean of 351.99 tonnes and ₦80162.45 million respectively over the study period. There was a decreasing trend in the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP in Nigeria over the study period. Co-integration analysis affirmed a long run relationship among the variables. Results of VECM regression analysis revealed a positive relationship between credit to the agricultural sector, exchange rate and volume of agricultural exports in the short run. Exchange rate and inflation rate positively affects volume of agricultural exports, while ratio of export prices to producer prices and interest rate negatively affects volume of agricultural exports in the long run. The study concluded that credit to the agricultural sector, exchange rate, inflation rate, ratio of export prices to producer prices and interest rate are significant determinants of volume of agricultural exports. Hence, increased low interest rate commercial banks credit to the agricultural sector, effective and efficient monetary policies and bridging the gap between producer prices and world prices of agricultural export commodities will stimulate improved agricultural export earnings.

Competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in main partner countries

The main destination countries play an important role in Indonesia's natural rubber exports, as most of Indonesia's natural rubber is exported to these countries. The purpose of this study was to examine the comparative advantage and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports to major partner countries. The RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) index is used to assess the comparative advantage, and panel data regression analysis is used to analyze the determinants of exports to the main partner countries (USA, China, Japan, India, Republic of Korea, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Belgium and Turkey). The results of this study indicate that Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage in the main partner countries, which are characterized by RCA index >1. In addition, it was determined that based on panel data regression, the increase in the world price of natural rubber and export restriction policies have led to a decline in natural rubber exports from Indonesia. It is found that the population of Indonesia reduces exports, while the population of partner countries increases exports due to population growth, which will increase the consumption of natural rubber. On the other hand, the increase in Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) will lead to an increase in natural rubber production capacity, which will contribute to an increase in exports. It is found that the previous year's demand was also taken into account by partner countries that import Indonesian natural rubber. The results of this study can be useful for the Indonesian government and stakeholders (such as natural rubber producers and exporters) to identify strategies to improve export performance

International prices and continuing conflict: Theory and evidence from sub-Saharan Africa (1980–2017)

This article presents a theoretical model of conflict between two parties in a two-sector economy. In a ‘contested’ sector, they struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an ‘uncontested’ sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Parties split their resource endowment between ‘butter’ and ‘guns’ (in the contested sector) and ‘ice cream’ (in the uncontested sector). The model predicts that the optimal level of ‘guns’ depends positively on the price of ‘butter’ and negatively on the price of ‘ice cream’. Theoretical results are tested by means of a panel analysis of sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1980–2017. The results show that international prices of manufactures (interpreted as the uncontested ice cream sector) are negatively associated with arms imports and military expenditure, so confirming the theoretical prediction. In addition, world prices of some commodities are positively associated with arms imports and military expenditure.

Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Sugar Price in Iran

Due to its inherent role in ensuring food security and as one of the productive sectors of the economy, the agricultural sector has a priority in receiving preferential currency. Having a preferred currency has caused the price of this commodity in the market to be multi-valued. On the other hand, the allocation of billions of dollars at a price lower than the free market price of foreign exchange to imports makes the percentage of the effect of the preferred currency on the price of commodities more important. In such circumstances, it must be determined whether the allocation of preferential or bank currency (42000Rials) to sugar has been able to be transferred to the final price of this commodity. To answer this question, time series data with monthly frequency of domestic sugar prices, official exchange rates and world prices during the years 2011: 03-2019:11 and the nonlinear pattern of Markov MSIAH regime change have been used. The results showed that during the period 2011:03-2019:11, the average monthly growth rate of the price of this product was equal to 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, during the period of implementation of the preferential exchange rate policy, the average monthly price growth rate was equal to 2.7 percent. The results also show that in the short run, the exchange rate pass-through to sugar price in the second regime was significant and equal to 5%. In the long run, the exchange rate pass-through in this regime was equal to six percent.

Effects of Maize Importation on the Economic Welfare of Maize Producers and Consumers in Kenya: A Partial Equilibrium Model Approach

Summary Maize imports bridge the maize supply-demand gap in Kenya. However, this does not automatically imply any positive or negative effects of such imports on the economic welfare of maize producers and consumers in the country. Nevertheless, there is a limited body of literature dealing with maize importation effects on the economic welfare of maize producers and consumers in Kenya. This paper provides the empirical evidence of maize importation effects on the economic welfare of Kenyan maize producers and consumers. For the purpose of determining such effects, time series secondary data for the period 1963–2016 (FAOSTAT, World Bank and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics) and the partial equilibrium model were used (which is suitable for measuring the effects of pricing policies on specific sectors, allowing for perfect substitutability between domestically produced and imported goods). The maize imports in Kenya were found to yield ambiguous effects on the economic welfare of both maize consumers and producers in the country. The consumer surplus calculated gained only the compensated loss in the producer surplus in 2 out of 11 points of analysis. Conversely, the producer surplus calculated gained only a compensated loss in the consumer surplus in 1 out of 11 points of analysis. The resultant net economic welfare effect of maize importation in Kenya was found negative, indicating adverse impacts on both the Kenyan maize sector and economy as a whole. To ensure the sustainability and development of the maize sector in Kenya, further maize imports are considered not feasible without compensating the losses in the country’s maize sector. Therefore, complementary reforms should be introduced to forge a link between world and consumer prices, and encourage producers to respond to production incentives. This will not only benefit maize producers and consumers, but will also facilitate the efficient allocation of resources for the improvement of the maize sub-sector competitiveness.

Energy stability and decarbonization in developing countries: Random Forest approach for forecasting of crude oil trade flows and macro indicators

The paper observes the dependence of the main macroeconomic indicators in developing countries from the change in world prices for crude oil. We analyzed a system of simultaneous equations, which makes it possible to verify some of these hypotheses, and developed the model to forecast the impact of oil prices on budget revenues. The practical significance of this work lies in the structuring of existing knowledge on the impact of oil crisis. The results of this work can be considered confirmation of the hypothesis of the sensitivity of U.S. macroeconomic indicators to the dynamics of oil prices. Outcomes assume stable growth even in the period of shock prices for oil, which is confirmed by the statistics that were used in the model. Deep decarbonization modeling is a trend in industrial facilities that are used by developing countries. The major challenge is the issue of availability that is applicable to the countries that want to utilize this facility in their communities. Industrial modeling toward decarbonization is now a developing mechanism to curb the growing issue of atmospheric pollution. This paper proves the relevance of promoting deep decarbonization applied by the developing countries.

West or East? Changing directions of supply of products of the republics of the former USSR in conditions of global instability

Due to the collapse of the USSR and the destruction of economic cooperation, all the former Soviet republics traded among themselves as independent states, and trade was carried out not at domestic (as before), but at world prices. New state borders (previously internal) prevented the export and transit of products to "third countries". The purpose of the study is to characterize the export of certain types of products in the post-Soviet space by country in dynamics from 1995 to 2020. The data was from UNCTAD. We used the principles of a systematic approach, in particular historical, analytical, mathematical-statistical and cartographic research methods. Russia remains the main supplier of mineral resources to the republics of the former Soviet Union, but its role in the foreign trade of the republics as a whole is declining. Exports began to consist mainly of exports of raw materials. Goods from the countries of the former USSR are exported mainly to the Asian market. Trade between countries is affected not only by geographical factors - it is easier to trade with neighbors, but also by other factors, including the ability to transport products around the world. Therefore, the spatial diversification of exports of steel, mineral fertilizers, and grain is higher than that of oil and natural gas, which are traded mainly through pre-laid pipelines. Interstate territorial disputes that have grown since the collapse of the USSR are harmful to economic cooperation. Difficulties arise in relations between such republics of the former Soviet Union as Russia and Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Soviet times, there was close cooperation between them, but now it is broken. This hinders the economic development of these countries.

On current and future carbon prices in a risky world

We analyse the optimal paths of abatement and carbon prices under a variety of economic, temperature and damage risks. Carbon prices grow in line with economic growth, but with convex damages and temperature-dependent risks of climatic tipping points grow more quickly and with gradual resolution of uncertainty grow more slowly. With temperature-dependent economic damage tipping points carbon prices are higher, but when the tipping point occurs, the price jumps downward. With a temperature cap the efficient carbon price rises at the risk-adjusted interest rate. Allowing for damages as well as a cap leads to a higher carbon price which grows more slowly. But as temperature and cumulative emissions approach their caps, the carbon price is ramped up ever more. Policy makers should expect a rising path of carbon prices.

Assessing the export potential of the region's agricultural sector

Subject. This article considers exports as a key driver of development of the agricultural sector at the regional level. Objectives. The article aims to analyze the possibility of organizing the production of fundamentally new export goods for the region. Methods. For the study, I used the abstract and logical, case methods, and various mathematical methods. Results. The article presents the rating of agricultural goods in accordance with their export potential. As key indicators for assessing the export potential of the regional agro-industrial complex, the article proposes to use the level of self-sufficiency, balance of resources, the Herfindahl – Hirschman index, and the ratio of world and domestic prices for exported agricultural products. Conclusions. The developed methodology can be used to determine the level of diversification of the export basket of agricultural products and the degree of concentration of exporters in the agricultural market of the region.

Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?

Why is the financial sector underdeveloped in resource-rich economies? Using a large panel dataset, we find slower growth in both financial sector deposits and private sector lending in countries that experience an unexpected natural resource windfall as measured by shocks to exogenous world prices. This effect is driven by countries with repressed financial systems and weak governance structures. The smaller role for the financial sector is accompanied by a stronger role of governments in channeling financial capital into the economy. The lack of private financial intermediation of natural resource windfalls hampers the development of the financial sector, which we interpret as evidence for a resource curse in financial development.

Economic Analysis and Competitiveness of Cotton Farms in Mali, the Case of Founia District of Kita Province

In this research, it is aimed to investigate the economic performance of cotton farms and to reveal the profitability and competitiveness of cotton production in Founia district of Kita province. The research data were obtained from the questionnaires conducted with 55 farms determined according to the stratified random sampling method. Policy Analysis Matrix was used to determine profitability and competitiveness in cotton production. The results of the research showed that the farms in Founia county have an average of 10.44 da farm land. Gross production value per farm is $3519.89, agricultural income is $2197.42. According to the result obtained from PAM, private profit of cotton production in Founia district was 58.97 $/ton social profit was 1017.38 $/ton. Within the scope of the research, Specific Cost Ratio (PCR) coefficients of 0.77 and Cost Ratio of Domestic Resources (DRC) of 0.19 obtained from PAM were found. However, according to the Nominal Protection Coefficient on Output (NPCO) (0.30), Nominal Protection Coefficient on Tradable Inputs (NPCI) (0.87) and Effective Protection Coefficient (EPC) (0.20) coefficients, it is seen that the cotton price is lower than the comparable world prices and the producer earns less profit from free trade. Therefore, in the short term, incentive premiums, direct financial support, protection of cotton prices, good communication with farms and extension policies should be implemented. The increase in yield with the introduction of irrigation systems will increase competitiveness.The government and the Compagnie Malienne pour le Développement des Textiles (CMDT) should assist in the leasing and long-term purchase of modern farm machinery, which is one of the fixed capitals, in order to increase productivity.

ENSURING FOOD SECURITY UNDER SANCTIONS PRESSURE

The relevance of the research has been substantiated. Russia is under unprecedented external pressure from a wide range of economic sanctions. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable in such conditions. In this connection, there is an objective need for a systematic analysis and forecasting of measures taken to protect the domestic food market. The article outlines the main directions of the state economic policy of the Russian Federation. The main factors influencing the rise in food prices have been identified. These factors include an increase in the cost of the production cycle of crops and livestock due to import dependence, disruption of supply chains, mandatory labeling of certain goods, an increase in the price of mineral fertilizers, an increase in electricity tariffs and packaging costs, the exhaustion of limits on preferential loans to agricultural producers, an increase in world prices for food products deterioration of natural and climatic conditions. The level of self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs and the main factors of growth in food prices have been considered. In addition, food inflation in the Russian Federation has been studied. Particular attention is paid to the measures taken by the Government that will help stabilize prices for important agricultural products and thereby ensure the country's food security: a temporary ban on the export of sunflower and rapeseed seeds; a quota for deliveries abroad of sunflower oil and cake, as well as solid residues from sunflower seeds; limiting the number of checkpoints for the export of soybeans and soybean meal from Russia; introduction of duties on the export of sunflower meal and oilseed flax. The purpose of the research is to study the measures taken by the Government to protect the domestic food market and stabilize prices for important agricultural products, as well as to identify the main factors affecting the rise in food prices. This study was conducted using the methods of statistical analysis, synthesis, comparison and deductive method.

Анализ процессов обеспечения экономической безопасности предприятий золотодобычи

The article presents the results of a study of the processes of ensuring the economic security of gold mining enterprises. The dynamics of world prices for gold is analyzed. The threats to the economic security of the gold mining industry are identified. The directions of perspective development of the industry are substantiated.

The possibilities of Russia-Vietnam cooperation in the fuel and energy sphere

The author has made an attempt to show a great potential of Russia-Vietnam cooperation in the fuel and energy sphere basing on the identification of the emerging trends and needs of Vietnamese economy and Russian possibilities.
 In particular, the article shows the state and perspectives of hydrocarbon and energy sectors of the Vietnam national economy. It demonstrates that: the decline in oil production due to the exhaustion of existing oil fields in Vietnam and the inability to meet the growing demand for gas on its own show the necessity of the increase in hydrocarbon import; instability and high cost of energy production relied on renewable energy sources want to increase the capacity of traditional types of energy. The obstacles are such factors as a significant growth of the world prices, and increasing dependance on LNG suppliers, as well as the climate agenda.
 To settle the problems, Russia being the leader at the world energy and fuels can contribute significantly to Vietnams energy security. Besides, Moscow maintaining leading positions in construction and exploitation of advanced NPPs could make for Hanois return to the national nuclear program. Enhancing cooperation in the hydrocarbon supplies sphere, the implementation of large-scale projects in the nuclear sphere meets both Russias and Vietnams national interests.

Sudan's Government Interventions: A Review Article On How To Overcome The Gap Between Wheat Production And Consumption

Agriculture is considered the mainstay of Sudan's economy and the livelihood of the majority of the population. It has contributed an annual average of 32 % of GDP for the last 10 years. Wheat is a strategic and political crop in Sudan and has played a central role in the country’s economy during successive regimes. This review paper aims to highlight the status of wheat production and consumption in Sudan in line with government interventions in the local and imported wheat sectors over the past few decades to ensure adequate grain supplies for domestic consumption. The Sudan government's official national-level statistics data and the government policy documents related to wheat production and consumption are used to conduct this paper. Despite the agricultural potential and ingredients available in Sudan, as well as government interventions via policies and plans oriented towards achieving wheat self-sufficiency, domestic production does not meet the population's needs and only covers an average of domestic consumption, which does not exceed 24%. Therefore, the Sudanese government has been importing wheat to bridge this gap, which was a great burden on its budget previously, and from this year (2022), this will be a great burden on the Sudanese citizens as the government completely lifted subsidies for wheat imports. This situation, in line with the world prices of wheat, which have surged since February 2022 and reached an all-time high level not seen since 2008 as the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered supply disruption from two of the world's largest wheat producers, requires evaluation of previous government interventions to determine what the real problem is, with a focus in the background of the commitments of the Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) to enhance the policies on "No Poverty," "Zero Hunger," and "Good Health and Well-being."

The impacts of price insulation on world wheat markets during the 2022 food price crisis

AbstractThis paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using error‐correction models finds stable long‐term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.

Using Individual-Level Randomized Treatment to Learn about Market Structure

Interference across competing firms in RCTs can be informative about market structure. An experiment that subsidizes a random subset of traders who buy cocoa from farmers in Sierra Leone illustrates this idea. Interpreting treatment-control differences in prices and quantities purchased from farmers through a model of Cournot competition reveals differentiation between traders is low. Combining this result with quasi-experimental variation in world prices shows that the number of traders competing is 50 percent higher than the number operating in a village. Own-price and cross-price supply elasticities are high. Farmers face a competitive market in this first stage of the value chain. (JEL L13, L14, O13, Q12, Q13)

Ukraine'S Exports in the Light of Economic Indicators and Regression Analysis

The article offers an analysis of Ukraine's export activity and innovation costs in the period 2004-2021. The authors analysed correlations between the level of exports and key social indicators, such as the level of employment, average wages and the unemployment rate. They also analysed the relationship between Ukraine's foreign trade and development trends of international markets and found a strong positive correlation between the level of Ukraine's iron ore exports and the level of world prices for these products. The method of fuzzy logic was used to determine factors that could help Ukraine to achieving the maximum level of export activity. Foreign direct investments were found to have the biggest impact on the level of exports while innovation spending turned out to be the least influential factor. The results of the study indicate that qualitative structural transformations of Ukrainian exports cannot be achieved without effective investment and innovation mechanisms.(original abstract)

Estimating the Volatility of Commodity Prices Indices for Agricultural Raw Materials Using the GARCH Model

The purpose of the article was to empirically assess the impact of the volatility of world price indices for agricultural raw materials on economic processes in industrialized countries (the United States of America and the countries of the European Union). The results indicated a favourable dependence of the trend of American GDP on the increase in world raw materials prices. A similar result was obtained for industrial production indicators in both countries under investigation. During the assessment of agricultural raw materials on the world commodity market, it was revealed that the prices for sugar and rice were the most volatile. However, it should be noted that the volatility of world wheat prices recently increased.