World Health Organization Risk Research Articles

Reduction in World Health Organization Risk Drinking Levels and Cardiovascular Disease.

Reductions in World Health Organization (WHO) risk drinking levels have recently been shown to lower the risk of multiple adverse health outcomes, but prior work has not examined reductions in WHO risk drinking levels in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of death for men and women in the United States and of global mortality. This study examined associations between reductions in WHO risk drinking levels and subsequent risk for CVD. In a US national survey, 1,058 very-high-risk and high-risk drinkers participated in Wave 1 interviews (2001 to 2002) and Wave 2 follow-ups (2004 to 2005). Self-reported CVD history that was communicated to the participant by a doctor or other healthcare professionals included arteriosclerosis, hypertension, angina, tachycardia, or myocardial infarction. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) evaluating relationships between ≥2-level reductions in WHO risk drinking levels from Wave 1 to Wave 2 and the risk of Wave 2 CVD, controlling for baseline characteristics. Reductions of ≥2 WHO risk drinking levels were associated with significantly lower odds of CVD in individuals who at Wave 1 were very-high-risk (aOR=0.58 [0.41 to 0.80]) or high-risk drinkers (aOR=0.81 [0.70 to 0.94]). Interaction terms showed that this relationship varied by age. Among individuals >40years old at Wave 1, reductions of ≥2 WHO risk drinking levels were associated with significantly lower odds of CVD among very-high-risk drinkers (aOR=0.42 [0.28 to 0.63]) but not high-risk drinkers (p=0.50). Among individuals ≤40years old at Wave 1, reductions of ≥2 WHO risk drinking levels were associated with significantly lower odds of CVD among high-risk drinkers (aOR=0.50 [0.37 to 0.69]) but not very-high-risk drinkers (p=0.27). These results show that reductions in WHO risk drinking levels are associated with reduced CVD risk among very-high-risk and high-risk drinkers in the US general population, and provide further evidence that reducing high levels of drinking provides important benefit across multiple clinical domains.

Desenlaces materno-fetales en embarazadas con categoría de riesgo III - IV según la Organización Mundial de la Salud en un centro de tercer nivel durante 2006 a 2017

ObjectiveTo describe the maternal-fetal outcomes in pregnant woman with risk classification of III-IV according to the World Health Organization (WHO). MethodsA review was carried out on the medical records of 41 pregnant women with WHO risk classification of III-IV, treated in a tertiary hospital in Medellin, Colombia. Demographic, clinical, and cardiac ultrasound variables were recorded on a form designed for this purpose. The primary variables were directed at evaluating the fetal and maternal outcomes. The statistical analysis was performed using IBM-SPSS software version 23. ResultsThe neonatal events rate was greater than the maternal events rate (68.3% vs. 31.7%). Primary and secondary outcomes occurred in 31.7% and 12.2%, respectively. The distribution according to WHO risk category was 7.3% in risk group III, and 92.7% in group IV. There was only one maternal death unrelated to cardiovascular disease. The presence of moderate-severe tricuspid insufficiency was associated with prematurity (P=.006), and the mothers with a pulmonary systolic pressure ≥ 50mm Hg had a greater number of newborns with respiratory distress (P=.010). Right heart failure was associated with maternal death (P=.014) and prematurity (P=.019), whilst left heart failure was associated with neonatal death (P=.003). ConclusionsMaternal cardiovascular disease is a frequent cause of high maternal-fetal morbidity and mortality. Although this study identified the main maternal and fetal outcomes, studies with a greater sample size are required.

Not All Is Lost for Relapsers: Relapsers With Low WHO Risk Drinking Levels and Complete Abstainers Have Comparable Regional Gray Matter Volumes

BackgroundReductions in substance use are associated with positive long‐term treatment outcomes such as psychosocial functioning; substance use–related consequences; and mental, physical, and neurobiological health. Therefore, nonabstinent clinical trial endpoints have received growing attention from substance abuse treatment experts. Regional brain tissue volumes in alcoholism treatment seekers increase during abstinence, in parallel to cognitive performance.MethodsWe examined the relationships of drinking levels in those who did not maintain abstinence after treatment with magnetic resonance imaging‐derived gray matter (GM) volumes measured 8 months after baseline assessments while in outpatient treatment. The complex drinking behavior during the interval was operationalized as World Health Organization risk drinking levels (WHO‐RDL), derived from the number of standard alcoholic drinks per day. We compared the volumes of addiction‐relevant cortical and subcortical brain regions at long‐term follow‐up among abstainers and 2 groups of relapsers with low and higher WHO‐RDL.ResultsWe found that: (i) relapsers with low WHO‐RDL at follow‐up, who as a group had reduced their risk levels by 2.8 units (by consuming <40 g of ethanol per day over the recovery interval), had regional brain tissue volumes indistinguishable from those of abstainers tested after the same time period and that (ii) relapsers with higher WHO‐RDL, with only 1.2 units average risk‐level reductions, had significantly smaller frontal GM and thalamic volumes than abstainers and relapsers with low WHO‐RDL. Despite many drinking days during recovery, including several with >10 drinks per day, relapsers with low WHO‐RDL at follow‐up tended to perform better than those with higher WHO‐RDL on cognitive domains of working memory and visuospatial skills assessed over the recovery interval.ConclusionsNonabstinent recovery is characterized by addiction‐relevant GM volumes comparable to those of complete abstainers. The WHO‐RDL has meaningful structural neuroimaging correlates potentially suitable as cognitively relevant biomarkers of treatment response and general brain health, perhaps even as objective clinical trial endpoints.

A new risk stratification model for intravesical recurrence, disease progression, and cancer-specific death in patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer: the J-NICE risk tables.

The aim of this study is to establish new risk tables for the current clinical setting, enabling short- and long-term risk stratification for recurrence, progression, and cancer-specific death after transurethral resection in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Currently available risk tables lack input from the 2004 World Health Organization grading system and risk prediction for cancer-specific death. This was a multi-institutional database study of 1490 patients diagnosed with NMIBC (the development cohort). A multivariate Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to assess the prognostic impact of various factors. Patients were classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups according to a sum of the weight of selected factors, and predicted cumulative rates were calculated. Internal validation was conducted using 200 bootstrap resamples to assess the optimism for the c-index and estimate a bias-corrected c-index. External validation of the developed risk table was performed on an independent dataset of 91 patients. The Japanese NIshinihon uro-onCology Extensive collaboration group (J-NICE) risk stratification table was derived from six, five, and two factors for recurrence, progression, and cancer-specific death, respectively. The internal validation bias-corrected c-index values were 0.619, 0.621, and 0.705, respectively. The application of the J-NICE table to an external dataset resulted in c-indices for recurrence, progression, and cancer-specific death of 0.527, 0.691, and 0.603, respectively. We propose a novel risk stratification model that predicts outcomes of treated NMIBC and may overcome the shortcomings of existing risk models. Further external validation is required to strengthen its clinical impact.

The Association of an Increasing Waist Circumference and Risk of Incident Low Physical Function in Adults with Knee Osteoarthritis.

To investigate an 8-year change in waist circumference (WC) with the risk of incident low physical function over 1 year in adults with, or at risk of, knee osteoarthritis (OA). Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative were used. Change in WC was measured from study enrollment (0 month) to the 96-month visit and classified as Increase (≥ 5cm gain) or Maintain (< 5cm gain). We identified World Health Organization (WHO) risk category based on WC at study enrollment as Large WC (males ≥ 102 cm, females ≥ 88 cm) or Small WC (males < 102 cm, females < 88 cm). The outcome was incident low physical function (≥ 28 Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index physical function subscale) at the 108-month visit. To investigate the association of the 8-year change in WC with the risk of low physical function, we calculated risk ratios (95% CI) and adjusted for potential confounders. We repeated the analyses stratified by the WHO disease risk category. The Increase WC group had 1.43 (95% CI 1.04-1.96) times the risk of incident low physical function compared to adults in the Maintain WC group. Adults with a Large WC at baseline who increased WC had 1.55 (95% CI 1.00-2.37) times the risk of incident low physical function compared to those who maintained WC. Adults with a Small WC at baseline who increased WC had 1.97 (95% CI 0.84-4.63) times the risk compared to those who maintained WC. Increasing WC increases the risk of incident low physical function in the following year. Maintaining WC may mitigate developing low physical function.

World Health Organization risk drinking level reductions are associated with improved functioning and are sustained among patients with mild, moderate and severe alcohol dependence in clinical trials in the United States and United Kingdom

To examine whether World Health Organization (WHO) risk-level reductions in drinking were achievable, associated with improved functioning and maintained over time among patients at varying initial alcohol dependence severity levels. Design and setting Secondary data analysis of multi-site randomized clinical trials: the US Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions for Alcohol Dependence (COMBINE) study and the UK Alcohol Treatment Trial (UKATT). Individuals with alcohol dependence enrolled in COMBINE (n=1383; 68.8% male) and seeking treatment for alcohol problems in UKATT (n=742; 74.1% male). Interventions Naltrexone, acamprosate or placebo, and combined behavioral intervention or medication management in COMBINE. Social behavior network therapy or motivational enhancement therapy in UKATT. WHO risk-level reductions were assessed via the calendar method. Alcohol dependence was measured by the Alcohol Dependence Scale, the Leeds Dependence Questionnaire and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Measures of functioning included alcohol-related consequences (Drinker Inventory of Consequences and Alcohol Problems Questionnaire), mental health (Short Form Health Survey) and liver enzyme tests. One- and two-level reductions in WHO risk levels in the last month of treatment were maintained at the 1-year follow-up [adjusted odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence interval (CI)= one-level reduction in COMBINE: 3.51 (2.73, 4.29) and UKATT: 2.65 (2.32, 2.98)] and associated with fewer alcohol-related consequences [e.g. B, 95% CI=one-level reduction COMBINE: -26.22 (-30.62, -21.82)], better mental health [e.g. B, 95% CI=one-level reduction UKATT: 9.53 (7.36, 11.73)] and improvements in γ-glutamyltransferase [e.g. B, 95% CI=one-level reduction UKATT: -89.77 (-122.50, -57.04)] at the end of treatment, even among patients with severe alcohol dependence. Results were similar when abstainers were excluded. Conclusions Reductions in World Health Organization risk levels for alcohol consumption appear to be achievable, associated with better functioning and maintained over time in both the United States and the United Kingdom.

A cross-sectional validation study comparing the accuracy of different risk scores in assessing the risk of acute coronary syndrome among patients in a tertiary care hospital in Kerala

BackgroundThere are many cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score calculators in practice, which are not based on Indian population data. ObjectivesTo identify the best CVD risk score calculator applicable in the Indian population. Materials and methodsA total of 1000 patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) were included in the study and their CVD risk score, had they presented before the event, was calculated. The Framingham risk score (FRS–body mass index [BMI], FRS–fasting lipid profile [FLP]), the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation risk calculator (ACC/AHA PCE), Joint British Society risk calculator 3 (JBS3) and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk prediction charts (WHO TC and WHO without TC [WHO NO TC]) were used. ResultsIt was seen that among the 1000 people included in the study, the FRS-BMI (59.2%), FRS-FLP (61.5%), ACC/AHA (70.1%) and the JBS3 (62.5%) identified a majority as having a risk of ≥20%, whereas both the WHO TC (65.3%) and the WHO NO TC (64.5%) identified a majority of the ACS patients as having a risk of <20%. The sensitivity was highest for the ACC/AHA (87.8%), FRS-FLP (85.1%) and then JBS3 (80.1%), whereas the specificity was highest for the WHO TC (83.6%) and the WHO NO TC (82.1%). When looking at the accuracy, the FRS-FLP was the most accurate with 80.1%, whereas the ACC/AHA and the JBS3 followed at 74.7% and 73.1%, respectively. ConclusionThe ACC/AHA seems to be an acceptable risk prediction system to be used in the Indian population and is also relatively easy and cheap to use.

The impact of previous cesarean section (C/S) on the risk for post-molar gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN)

ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship between previous cesarean section (C/S) and risk for post-molar gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN). MethodsData from patients who were treated for hydatidiform moles between 1995 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Patient age, gravidity, parity, abortion history, gestational age, pretreatment beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG), previous molar pregnancy, clinical symptoms, enlarged uterus, theca lutein cyst, type of GTN, World Health Organization risk score, chemotherapy, and mode of delivery were recorded. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for variables associated with the occurrence of post-molar GTN and invasive mole were estimated by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. ResultsFrom 1995 to 2016, 182 patients were diagnosed with molar pregnancy and underwent treatment. Patients with previous C/S (C/S group) had higher age (37.0 vs 32.8. p = 0.004), gravidity (3.1 vs 2.0, p < 0.001), and parity (1.6 vs 0.9, p < 0.001) than patients without previous C/S (non-C/S group). Post-molar GTN (43.5 vs 26.5%, p < 0.001), invasive mole (21.7 vs 3.7%, p < 0.001), hysterectomy (28.3 vs 6.6%, p < 0.001), and chemotherapy (45.7 vs 28.7%, p = 0.03) were more frequent in the C/S group. In multivariate analysis, independent risk factors for post-molar GTN were previous C/S (HR 5.1, 95% CI 2.1–12.7), abortion history (HR 6.3, 95% CI 2.5–15.6), and pretreatment β-hCG (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.6). ConclusionsIn this study, C/S was a strong risk factor for occurrence of post-molar GTN and invasive mole. Aggressive treatment, such as multi-agent chemotherapy or hysterectomy, can be considered for hydatidiform moles in patients with a C/S history.

Pregnant Women With Uncorrected Congenital Heart Disease: Heart Failure and Mortality

ObjectivesThe purpose of this work was to study maternal and fetal outcomes of women with uncorrected congenital heart disease (CHD). BackgroundGlobally, CHD is an important cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in women reaching reproductive stage. Data are lacking from larger cohorts of women with uncorrected CHD. MethodsThe 10-year data from the European Society of Cardiology EORP ROPAC (EURObservational Research Programme Registry of Pregnancy and Cardiac disease) registry of women with uncorrected CHD were analyzed. ResultsOf 5,739 pregnancies in 53 countries, 3,295 women had CHD, 1,059 of which were uncorrected cases. Of these, 41.4% were from emerging countries. There were marked differences between the cardiac defects in uncorrected cases versus those in corrected CHD cases with primary shunt lesions (44.7% vs. 32.4%, respectively), valvular abnormalities (33.5% vs. 12.6%, respectively), and Tetralogy of Fallot and pulmonary atresia (0.8% vs. 20.3%, respectively; p < 0.001). In patients with uncorrected CHD, 6.8% were in modified World Health Organization risk class IV, approximately 10% had pulmonary hypertension (PH), and 3% were cyanotic prior to pregnancy. Maternal mortality and heart failure (HF) in the women with uncorrected CHD were 0.7% and 8.7%, respectively. Eisenmenger syndrome was associated with a very high risk of cardiac events (65.5%), maternal mortality (10.3%), and HF (48.3%). Coming from an emerging country was associated with higher pre-pregnancy signs of HF, PH, and cyanosis (p < 0.001) and worse maternal and fetal outcomes, with a 3-fold higher rate of hospital admissions for cardiac events and intrauterine growth retardation (p < 0.001). ConclusionsMarked differences between cardiac conditions in pregnant women with uncorrected CHD and those in corrected CHD were found, with a markedly worse outcome, particularly in women with Eisenmenger syndrome and from emerging countries.

What the World Needs Now: A Prescriptive Measure of Alcohol Outcomes Commentary on Witkiewitz etal., "Maintenance of World Health Organization Risk Drinking Level Reductions and PostTreatment Functioning Following a Large Alcohol Use Disorder Clinical Trial".

What the World Needs Now: A Prescriptive Measure of Alcohol Outcomes Commentary on Witkiewitz etal., "Maintenance of World Health Organization Risk Drinking Level Reductions and PostTreatment Functioning Following a Large Alcohol Use Disorder Clinical Trial".

Reduction in non-abstinent World Health Organization (WHO) drinking risk levels and drug use disorders: 3-year follow-up results in the US general population

BackgroundTo provide information on the clinical relevance of a reduction in the World Health Organization (WHO) drinking risk categories, we examined their relationship to an important indicator of how individuals feel and function: drug use disorders (DUDs), i.e., those involving substances other than alcohol. MethodCurrent drinkers in a U.S. national survey (n = 22,005) were interviewed in 2001-02 and re-interviewed 3 years later. WHO drinking risk levels and DSM-IV-defined DUD were assessed at both waves. The relationship of changes in WHO drinking risk levels to the presence of DUD were examined using adjusted odds ratios (aOR). ResultsAt Wave 1, 2.5% of respondents were WHO very-high-risk drinkers, and 2.5%, 4.8%, and 90.2% were high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk drinkers, respectively. Among Wave 1 very-high-risk drinkers, significantly lower odds of DUD at Wave 2 were predicted by reductions in WHO risk levels of one, two or three levels (aOR = 0.15, 0.01, 0.24, respectively; all p-values <.0001). Among participants who initially were drinking at lower risk levels, reductions in drinking or abstinence were generally associated with significantly lower odds of DUD, although the results were less consistent. ConclusionsAmong very-high-risk drinkers, reduction in the WHO drinking risk categories were associated with lower risk of a DUD. These results add to findings indicating that reductions in WHO drinking risk levels are a meaningful indicator of how individuals feel and function and could therefore serve as informative outcomes in alcohol clinical trials. WHO risk levels can also guide treatment goals and clinical recommendations on drinking reduction.

Concurrent Gestational Trophoblastic Cancer in a Full-Term Pregnancy

Gestational trophoblastic disease complicates about 1–2 pregnancies out of 1,000. This disease commonly presents as a nonviable hydatidiform mole diagnosed in first or early second trimester. Gestational choriocarcinoma is an aggressive form of cancer. It is very rare and occurs in 1 in 40,000 pregnancies. The case demonstrates specialty nursing coming together to provide family-centered care to meet the needs of a unique family. Collaborative nursing care is not unusual; however, the combination of a late diagnosis of a twin pregnancy, with one normal fetu, and advanced metastatic choriocarcinoma presented challenges that nursing teams had not experienced before. This case study discusses a gravida 2 para 1 patient with Stage IV choriocarcinoma who was at 34-weeks gestation when she was transferred to tertiary care due to shortness of breath. On arrival she was dyspneic, with coughing, wheezing, and an oxygen saturation level of 92%. Her scans showed nodules in lungs, liver, and brain. Initial quantitative β-hCG level was 1.3 million mIU/ml. Her placental pathology showed an International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Grade IV choriocarcinoma, and her score on the World Health Organization (WHO) Risk score was 14. Women who have a WHO score greater than 7 require combination chemotherapy; a score greater than 13 increases risk of death related to hemorrhage. The maternal and oncology staff created a care plan that was acceptable to the patient, as she had planned a holistic home birth with a lay midwife. The couple declined all prenatal labs, tests, or ultrasound. Their preference was the most holistic methods possible. This patient did not believe in chemotherapy and wanted to leave the “smallest carbon footprint possible.” Initial recovery from her cesarean was done on the maternity unit where the oncology nurses provided support and education to the staff and family regarding extensive preparation. The obstetrics staff collaborated on the oncology unit when the patient started combined chemotherapy. Education regarding breastfeeding, donor breast milk, support of the family through emotional distress, infant separation, and fertility was provided. The complexity of caring for a patient with very strong holistic sense of self and devotion to protecting the environment led to discovery of nurse-led improvements.

Maintenance of World Health Organization Risk Drinking Level Reductions and Posttreatment Functioning Following a Large Alcohol Use Disorder Clinical Trial.

BackgroundReductions in the World Health Organization (WHO) risk drinking levels have been proposed as an alternative primary outcome for alcohol clinical trials. Yet, little is known about whether reductions in WHO risk drinking levels can be maintained over time. The current study examined whether reductions in WHO risk drinking levels were maintained for up to 1 year following treatment, and whether reductions over time were associated with improvements in functioning.MethodsSecondary data analysis of individuals with alcohol dependence (n = 1,226) enrolled in the COMBINE study, a multisite, randomized, placebo‐controlled clinical trial. Logistic regression was used to examine the maintenance of end‐of‐treatment WHO risk level reductions and WHO risk level reductions at the 1‐year follow‐up. Repeated‐measures mixed models were used to examine the association between WHO risk level reductions and functional outcomes over time.ResultsAchieving at least a 1‐ or 2‐level reduction in risk by the end of treatment was significantly associated with WHO risk level reductions at the 1‐year follow‐up assessment (p < 0.001). Among individuals who achieved at least a 1‐level reduction by the end of treatment, 85.5% reported at least a 1‐level reduction at the 1‐year follow‐up. Among individuals who achieved at least a 2‐level reduction by the end of treatment, 77.8% reported at least a 2‐level reduction at the 1‐year follow‐up. WHO risk level reductions were associated with significantly lower alcohol consumption, better physical health (p < 0.01), and fewer alcohol‐related consequences (p < 0.001) up to 1 year following treatment.ConclusionsOne‐ and 2‐level reductions in WHO risk levels during alcohol treatment were maintained after treatment and associated with better functioning over time. These findings support the use of the WHO risk level reductions as an outcome measure that reflects clinically significant improvement in how individuals seeking treatment for alcohol use disorder feel and function.

Implications of the growing burden of diabetes for premature cardiovascular disease mortality and the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a major cause of deaths globally, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of these deaths. 42% of NCD deaths are premature (occurring before the age of 70 years). As part of the United Nations 3rd Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on health and wellbeing, target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one third between 2015 and 2030. This target adds to the World Health Organization (WHO) target of reducing premature deaths from NCDs by 25% between 2010 and 2025. As diabetes is a major risk factor for CVD, it is important to account for the trends in diabetes when considering premature CVD mortality. We aimed to describe the global trends in diabetes prevalence and mortality, critically review the literature on the estimated attainability of the WHO and SDG targets, and determine if and how these studies accounted for trends in diabetes. Worldwide, the prevalence of diabetes is rising, with an estimated 9.0% global prevalence in adults aged 20-69 by 2030, and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) having the largest increase of the burden in absolute numbers and age-standardized prevalence. There is a lack of data from most LMICs on the excess CVD mortality associated with diabetes and therefore no consensus on the global risk of CVD mortality in people with diabetes. Where data do exist, there are discrepancies between studies on the direction of mortality trends from diabetes over time. We reviewed 12 studies that estimated the attainability of the WHO or SDG targets for premature NCD mortality. Seven of these considered the potential impacts of achieving the 2025 WHO risk factor targets. Six studies modelled the impact of current trends in risk factors, including diabetes, continuing toward the target dates. Four studies compared this 'business as usual' model with the attainment of the risk factor targets for the world as whole and individual regions, 2 studies for NCD mortality overall, and 2 specifically for CVD mortality. On the impact of diabetes with regards to attainment of the WHO or SDG targets for premature CVD mortality, the overall results were inconclusive. Some concluded that none of the countries or regions considered would meet the targets, and others predicted that in some areas, the targets would be met. Examining the potential impact of trends in diabetes on future CVD mortality rates in LMICs is limited by a relative lack of high quality studies, including on the age specific excess mortality associated with diabetes. Filling these data gaps will enable better estimates of the potential impacts on future CVD mortality of the rapidly increasing prevalence of diabetes in LMICs and help to better inform health policy and the attainment of SDG target 3.4.

Estimated Impact of World Health Organization Latent Tuberculosis Screening Guidelines in a Region With a Low Tuberculosis Incidence: Retrospective Cohort Study.

Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening and treatment is a key component of the World Health Organization (WHO) EndTB Strategy, but the impact of LTBI screening and treatment at a population level is unclear. We aimed to estimate the impact of LTBI screening and treatment in a population of migrants to British Columbia (BC), Canada. This retrospective cohort included all individuals (N = 1 080 908) who immigrated to Canada as permanent residents between 1985 and 2012 and were residents in BC at any time up to 2013. Multiple administrative databases were linked to identify people with risk factors who met the WHO strong recommendations for screening: people with tuberculosis (TB) contact, with human immunodeficiency virus, on dialysis, with tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors, who had an organ/haematological transplant, or with silicosis. Additional TB risk factors included immunosuppressive medications, cancer, diabetes, and migration from a country with a high TB burden. We defined active TB as preventable if diagnosed ≥6 months after a risk factor diagnosis. We estimated the number of preventable TB cases, given optimal LTBI screening and treatment, based on these risk factors. There were 16 085 people (1.5%) identified with WHO strong risk factors. Of the 2814 people with active TB, 118 (4.2%) were considered preventable through screening with WHO risk factors. Less than half (49.4%) were considered preventable with expanded screening to include people migrating from countries with high TB burdens, people who had been prescribed immunosuppressive medications, or people with diabetes or cancer. The application of WHO LTBI strong recommendations for screening would have minimally impacted the TB incidence in this population. Further high-risk groups must be identified to develop an effective LTBI screening and treatment strategy for low-incidence regions.

Reduction in non-abstinent WHO drinking risk levels and depression/anxiety disorders: 3-year follow-up results in the US general population

BackgroundNon-abstinent drinking reductions that predict improvement in how individuals feel or function, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) drinking risk levels, may be useful outcomes in clinical trials for alcohol use disorders (AUD). MethodsCurrent drinkers in a U.S. national survey (n = 22,005) were interviewed in 2001–02 (Wave 1) and re-interviewed 3 years later (Wave 2). WHO drinking risk levels, a 4- level categorization system (very-high-risk, high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk drinkers) defined using estimated mean ethanol consumption (grams) per day in the prior 12 months, and DSM-IV depressive and anxiety disorders were assessed at both waves. Logistic regression was used to produce adjusted odds ratios (aOR) testing the associations of changes between Wave 1 and Wave 2 WHO risk levels to the presence or persistence of depression and/or anxiety disorder by each initial Wave 1 risk level. ResultsAmong Wave 1 very-high-risk drinkers, lower odds of depression and/or anxiety disorders at Wave 2 were predicted by reductions in WHO risk levels of one-, two- or three-levels (aOR = 0.42, 0.37, 0.67, p-values 0.04-<.0001), as was the persistence of depression and/or anxiety disorders among those with such disorders at Wave 1 (aOR = 0.37, 0.29, 0.51, p-values .03-<.0001). Results were less consistent for participants initially drinking at lower risk levels. ConclusionsAmong very-high-risk drinkers, reductions in the WHO drinking risk categories were associated with lower risk of depression and/or anxiety disorders. These results add to findings indicating reductions in WHO risk levels are a meaningful indicator of how individuals feel and function.

Performance evaluation of 10-year ultrasound image-based stroke/cardiovascular (CV) risk calculator by comparing against ten conventional CV risk calculators: A diabetic study

MotivationAtheroEdge Composite Risk Score (AECRS1.010yr) is an integrated stroke/cardiovascular risk calculator that was recently developed and computes the 10-year risk of carotid image phenotypes by integrating conventional cardiovascular risk factors (CCVRFs). It is therefore important to understand how closely AECRS1.010yr is associated with the ten other currently available conventional cardiovascular risk calculators (CCVRCs). MethodsThe Institutional Review Board of Toho University approved the examination of the left/right common carotid arteries of 202 Japanese patients. Step 1 consists of measurement of AECRS1.010yr, given current image phenotypes and CCVRFs. Step 2 consists of computing the risk score using ten different CCVRCs given CCVR factors: QRISK3, Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) 56, UKPDS60, Reynolds Risk Score (RRS), Pooled cohort Risk Score (PCRS or ASCVD), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Prospective Cardiovascular Munster Study (PROCAM) calculator, NIPPON, and World Health Organization (WHO) risk. Step 3 consists of computing the closeness factor between AECRS1.010yr and ten CCVRCs using cumulative ranking index derived using eight different statistically derived metrics. ResultsAECRS1.010yr reported the highest area-under-the-curve (0.927;P < 0.001) among all the risk calculators. The top three CCVRCs closest to AECRS1.010yr were QRISK3, FRS, and UKPDS60 with cumulative ranking scores of 2.1, 3.0, and 3.8, respectively. ConclusionAECRS1.010yr produced the largest AUC due to the integration of image-based phenotypes with CCVR factors, and ranked at first place with the highest AUC. Cumulative ranking of ten CCVRCs demonstrated that QRISK3 was the closest calculator to AECRS1.010yr, which is also consistent with the industry trend.

The impact of addressing modifiable risk factors to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in Turkey.

Our study aimed to estimate the impact of addressing modifiable risk factors on the future burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the general population and in two high-risk populations (heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia and secondary prevention) for Turkey. One model investigated the impact of reaching the World Health Organization (WHO) voluntary targets for tobacco use, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity in the general population. Another model estimated the impact of reducing LDL-cholesterol in two high-risk populations through increased access to effective treatment. Inputs for the models include disease and risk factor prevalence rates, a population forecast, baseline CVD event rates, and treatment effectiveness, primarily derived from the published literature. Direct costs to the public health care system and indirect costs from lost production are included, although the cost of programs and pharmacological interventions to reduce risk factors were not considered. The value of reaching WHO risk factor reduction targets is estimated at US$9.3 billion over the next 20 years, while the value of reducing LDL-cholesterol is estimated at up to US$8.1 billion for high-risk secondary prevention patients and US$691 million for heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia patients. Efforts to achieve WHO risk factor targets and further lower LDL-cholesterol through increased access to treatment for high-risk patients are projected to greatly reduce the growing clinical and economic burden of CVD in Turkey.

Reduction in Nonabstinent WHO Drinking Risk Levels and Change in Risk for Liver Disease and Positive AUDIT-C Scores: Prospective 3-Year Follow-Up Results in the U.S. General Population.

Abstinence is often the treatment aim for alcohol use disorders (AUD), but this may deter individuals who prefer drinking reduction goals from entering treatment, and be an overly restrictive end point in alcohol clinical trials. Nonabstinent drinking reductions that predict improvement in how individuals feel or function may be useful clinical trial outcomes, for example, reductions in the 4-category World Health Organization (WHO) drinking risk levels. To investigate the clinical relevance of these reductions, we examined their relationship with 2 outcomes of interest to medical providers: liver disease, and positive scores on an alcohol screening measure. Current drinkers in a U.S. national survey (n=21,925) were interviewed in 2001 to 2002 (Wave 1) and re-interviewed 3years later (Wave 2). WHO drinking risk levels, liver disease, and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) were assessed at both waves. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were used to indicate the association of change in WHO drinking risk levels with Wave 2 liver disease and AUDIT-C scores. Wave 1 very-high-risk drinkers who reduced 1, 2, or 3 WHO drinking risk levels had significantly lower odds of Wave 2 liver disease (aORs=0.34, 0.23, 0.17) and positive AUDIT-C scores (aORs=0.27, 0.09, 0.03). Wave 1 high-risk drinkers who reduced 1 or 2 WHO risk levels had significantly lower odds of positive AUDIT-C scores (aORs=0.61, 0.25). Adjusting for alcohol dependence or AUDIT-C scoring variations did not affect results. In the highest-risk drinkers, reductions in WHO drinking risk levels predicted lower likelihood of liver disease and positive AUDIT-C scores. Results add to findings that reductions in the 4-category WHO drinking risk levels are a meaningful indicator of how individuals feel and function, and could serve as nonabstinent end points in clinical trials. Results also connect the WHO risk drinking levels to commonly used alcohol screening questions, which may be more familiar to healthcare providers.

Modelling the burden of cardiovascular disease in Saudi Arabia and the impact of reducing modifiable risk factors

This study aims to estimate the current and future burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Saudi Arabia, and quantify the impact of reducing modifiable risk factors. A burden of disease model was used to forecast the burden of CVD in Saudi Arabia, and estimate the impact of reducing modifiable risk factors (tobacco use, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity) in the Saudi Nationals population, in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) targets. Another model estimated the impact of reducing LDL-cholesterol through increased access to effective treatment for two high risk populations: heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) and secondary prevention (SP), with a focus on patients with LDL-cholesterol >100 mg/dL. Inputs for the models included disease and risk factor prevalence, population forecast, CVD event rates, and treatment effectiveness, primarily derived from published literature. Direct costs to the public health care system and indirect costs from lost productivity due to premature mortality, hospitalizations, and early retirement were included, although the cost of programs and pharmacological interventions to reduce risk factors was not considered. The prevalence of CVD is projected to increase to 479,500 Nationals by 2035, while the economic burden, including both direct and indirect costs, would increase threefold to US$9.8 billion. The value of reducing modifiable risk factors (except LDL-cholesterol) is estimated at US$3.7 billion over the forecast period. Reducing the prevalence of uncontrolled LDL-cholesterol through increased access to evolocumab could lead to savings of up to US$532 million for HeFH patients and up to US$9 billion for high-risk SP patients over the forecast period. The burden of CVD is significant and growing. Efforts to achieve WHO risk factor targets and further lower LDL-cholesterol through increased access to effective treatment for high-risk patients are projected to greatly reduce the clinical, economic, and humanistic burden of cardiovascular disease in Saudi Arabia.