World Growth Rate Research Articles

Tariffs, Growth and Non-Tariff Transport Costs

This paper examines the impact of unilateral tariff increases on the world growth rate using a two-country endogenous growth model when firms are internationally mobile, technical knowledge in research and development is an international public good, and iceberg transport costs are not subject to tariffs. In this paper, we find that a unilateral tariff increase in one country raises or lowers the world growth rate, depending on the degree of elasticity of substitution between any two differentiated goods and the share of firms owned by the country that raised tariffs.

Trade Liberalization, International Relocation of Firms, and Economic Growth

This paper presents a framework for understanding the role of global tariff rate reductions in affecting the world growth rate, given knowledge spillovers in research and development (R&D) and the relocation of firms. In particular, we highlight one aspect of the model: the international relocation of firms associated with a reduction in world tariff rates. This paper shows that, given the spillover effect of localized R&D knowledge, a simultaneous multilateral reduction in the common tariff rate increases the world growth rate through the relocation of firms.

Economic Growth and Inflation Tradeoffs within Global Stagflation: Evidence from the Vietnam Economy

The paper analyzes the interaction of economic growth and inflation rate on accounting for both sources of capital investment and global shocks. The analysis method is a time-varying coefficient Bayesian vector autoregression (TVC-BSVAR) model applied in a quarterly data sample of the Vietnam economy over Q2/2001–Q4/2022. The global factors, including the world economic growth and the inflation rate, are the most important drivers of domestic growth and inflation rate. A greater world growth rate raises the domestic growth rate while a higher world inflation rate increases the domestic inflation rate. If the world economy falls into stagflation with declining growth and a rising inflation rate, Vietnam’s economic growth reduces while the inflation surges. The monetary and fiscal policy can be employed to recover domestic economic growth but with an associated surge in the domestic inflation rate.

СОВЕТСКИЙ СТРУКТУРАЛИЗМ: Е. ПРЕОБРАЖЕНСКИЙ, С. СТРУМИЛИН, Н. ВОЗНЕСЕНСКИЙ, Ю. ЯРЕМЕНКО

Structuralism is a relatively young area of economic research, but it already has its own history in Russia. The first debates over the rates and proportions of the Soviet economy began back in the 1920s. The discussions between “geneticists” and “teleologists” were quite open then. Geneticists defended the traditionalist approach, relying on the exhaustion of the restoration impulse and the need to return the country to “normal”, average world growth rates and the accumulation rate of 16-18%. Teleologists relied on the “law of socialist accumulation” and the “theory of two regulators”. They were confident in the possibilities of accelerated development; even the “starting version” of the 1st Five-Year Plan provided for achieving an accumulation rate of more than 20%. And in the end, despite the monstrous mistakes the Bolshevik leadership made during collectivization, the teleologists turned out to be right. The 2nd Five-Year Plan was more successful — the planned savings rate was reduced, the production of consumer goods was increased, and it was possible to switch from cards to planned trade turnover. The idea of accelerated development and the discovery of the law of socialist accumulation belonged to E. Preobrazhensky, but its implementation, including through planned calculations, was carried out by S. Strumilin, and starting from the 3rd Five-Year Plan — by N. Voznesensky. The end of the post-war period and the death of I. Stalin marked the end of “adaptive modernization”. The 8th Five-Year Plan, which aimed for faster growth of Group B industries over Group A, failed to be fulfilled. By the end of the 1970s the Soviet economy fell into inevitable stagnation. Economists of that time gave alarmist forecasts about the decline in growth rates, and proposed measures to overcome the crisis, but all of those were palliative in nature. The structuralist theory of multi-level economy by Yu. Yaremenko appeared at the same time. This theory contained a number of provisions that could be called heretical, contradicting both Marxism and the neoclassical mainstream. Despite its fruitfulness, it was ignored by both planners and Soviet leaders.

Влияет ли распределение доходов между трудом и капиталом на экономический рост?

The work is devoted to obtaining quantitative estimates of the impact of the dis-tribution of income between labor and capital on the rate of economic growth in the modern world. We used UN data on a set of European countries, post-Soviet countries, Israel, Canada, the USA and Turkey. To assess the impact of the distribution of income between labor and capital on economic growth rates, linear econometric models of the dependence of economic growth rates on the share of labor force in GDP by years of the period from 2007 to 2019 built. The obtained results showed that the relationship between the rates of economic growth and the share of labor force in GDP in the mod-ern world is not significant, the influence of the share of labor force in GDP on econom-ic growth is negative, but declining obliquely, in recent years it has become insignificant. it can be expected that in the 2020s this influence may become positive. Outpacing wage growth rates can help increase labor productivity and accelerate economic growth in the transition to a post-industrial economy.

Financial Market Globalization, Deglobalization Policies and Growth

This paper develops a world economy growth model to explore the consequences of financial market globalization. The model consists of small open countries that are plagued by domestic credit market imperfection and are connected via knowledge spillovers. When knowledge diffuses from the technology leader to the world as an international public good, the model predicts that financial market globalization promotes growth despite uphill credit flows dividing the world economy into a high‐income core and a low‐income periphery. But the associated world growth rate is not optimal. Barriers to cross‐border credit flows can give rise to a higher worldwide rate of growth through which all countries can benefit.

Quantitative Assessment of the Development of Arctic Research

The article presents a brief bibliometric analysis and assessment of the development of research related to the Arctic. The world trends in the volume of scientific output are considered, significant countries prticipating in the research are identified, their contribution and the place of Russia are assessed, an international co-authorship network is built and studied. The rapid growth of world research in the Arctic in the last decade, driven by not only the Arctic countries, but also non-Arctic ones, and the growing international cooperation are shown. Russia, combining the traditionally strong position of Russian academic school in the study of the Arctic with the increasing activity of universities, significantly exceeded the average world growth rate and became the third in the world in terms of the volume of Arctic research. The main source of information for the analysis was the Web of Science Core Collection database, an additional source – Google Scholar

Using EVA to Measure Management's Contribution to Value - A Missed Opportunity at ISS

EVA (Economic Value Added or economic profit) has a long history of intermittent use in corporate performance measurement. It was widely used as a funding formula for corporate incentive plans in the first half of the 20th century, it enjoyed considerable popularity in the 1990s under the leadership of the consulting firm Stern Stewart & Co and it has recently been embraced by the proxy advisor ISS. In all of these periods of popularity, the focus has been on current EVA (or ∆EVA) as a comprehensive measure of performance, ignoring the critical insight of the EVA math that investors’ dollar excess return has two components in addition to the capitalized future value of ∆EVA: the capitalized future value of expected ∆EVA and, most importantly, the unexpected change in future growth value (FGV). FGV is the capitalized present value of expected future ∆EVA. In a simple world with constant ROIC and capital growth rates, current ∆EVA is a perfect proxy for ∆FGV because both are determined by the current EVA spread and dollar capital growth. In the real world, where ROIC and capital growth rates are volatile and capital has delayed productivity, current ∆EVA is a very poor proxy for ∆FGV. In and out of turnaround situations, ∆EVA and ∆FGV move in opposite directions. For growing companies, better estimates of ∆FGV come from using expected, not actual, capital growth and measures of profitability, such as [EBITDA + R&D] ROIC, that are calculated before delayed productivity expenses such as capital charge, depreciation and R&D. In this paper, I show that operating performance measurement can be greatly improved by using regression models to estimate the ∆FGV associated with changes in expected profit from capital growth as well as the FGV fade associated with ∆EVA- and ∆EVA+. I show that operating excess return, using a model of ∆FGV, explains 65% of the variance in market excess returns for the median industry vs. only 38% for ∆EVA. The critical take-away for performance measurement is that we can’t accurately assess current EVA performance without estimating the change in future growth value.

Competitiveness Overview of Four Brazilian Non-timber Forest Products

This study aimed to analyze the Brazilian competitiveness in the world market of the main non-timber forest products (NTFPs) exported by Brazil during the subperiods from 2006 to 2010, and from 2011 to 2016. The products were selected based on their relevance in the Brazilian NTFP export. In order to analyze competitiveness, we used the competitiveness matrix, which is given by the performance point of view. In the construction of this matrix, the vertical axis was represented by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage index while the horizontal axis was represented by the growth rate. The results showed that natural rubber was in the “missed opportunities” quadrant in the first period and in the “retreat” quadrant in the second period analyzed. On the other hand, honey, mate and cashew nut were positioned in the “optimum” sector in both periods, although cashew nut had showed a decrease both in the world growth rate and in the RSCA in the second period studied. In the final analysis, we concluded that Brazil is competitive in exports of honey and mate, it has been losing competitiveness in exports of cashew nuts, and is in decline as regards natural rubber exports.

A novel forecasting model for the Baltic dry index utilizing optimal squeezing

AbstractMarine transport has grown rapidly as the result of globalization and sustainable world growth rates. Shipping market risks and uncertainty have also grown and need to be mitigated with the development of a more reliable procedure to predict changes in freight rates. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting model and apply it to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Such a model compresses, in an optimal way, information from the past in order to predict freight rates. To develop the forecasting model, we deploy a basic set of predictors, add lags of the BDI and introduce additional variables, in applying Bayesian compressed regression (BCR), with two important innovations. First, we include transition functions in the predictive set to capture both smooth and abrupt changes in the time path of BDI; second, we do not estimate the parameters of the transition functions, but rather embed them in the random search procedure inherent in BCR. This allows all coefficients to evolve in a time‐varying manner, while searching for the best predictors within the historical set of data. The new procedures predict the BDI with considerable success.

Evaluating the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Stock Markets of BRICS Countries

The global financial crisis of 2007 - 2008 left every economy in a state of shock and also increased the volatility in the markets across the world since internationalization of capital markets not only gives an opportunity to investors to invest their money in their own country, but also the country of their choice too. Therefore, during the period of crisis, international investors tried to diversify their investments in more promising countries. BRICS countries, being a global market hub, have been growing faster than the world growth rate and saw more investment movements during and after this period. The present study attempted to evaluate the impact of the financial crisis on BRICS countries' stock markets. The impact was examined by analyzing the growth rate of BRICS countries' stock markets index prices in the pre and post crisis period (from 2002-2015) with the application of a dummy based model considering time as a dummy. Our results revealed that the BRICS were subject to a spillover effect during and following the financial crisis. Brazilian, Russian, and Chinese markets had a negative growth in index prices and captured more volatility and thereby, increased the risk of investors ; whereas, the Indian and South African markets captured some degree of shock in the beginning of the crisis, but showed a positive momentum. We further found that in the long run, these nations recovered successfully from the crisis as they invited more foreign investments in their markets to recover.

Natural Resources, Economic Growth and Geography

In this paper we discuss the relationship between economic growth and natural resources at a global level, taking into account geography. With this aim, our model integrates elements of the theories of endogenous growth, natural resources and new economic geography. We find that an increase in the world growth rate can lead to a higher depletion of the natural resources following an increase in the world demand due to expansion in population. However, the consideration of geography and growth mechanisms make the relationship between growth and natural resources more complex, and can even lead to the opposite conclusion when the forces behind growth are different from world demand. Indeed, either a reduction in transport costs or an increase in R&D productivity appears to be able to generate a faster growth compatible with a lower depletion of natural resources.

Global Financial Crisis and Islamic Financial Products

Collapse of the United States sub-prime mortgage market in late 2006 opened a new era for the world economy. After having an average growth rate of 4.3 percent for the period of 2004-2007, world growth rate was stuck to an average of 2.2 percent between 2008-2015. While developed countries try to revitalize their economies by several unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing, forward guidance, and negative interest rates, emerging countries are in a rush to positively decouple from their peers in order to avoid unfavorable developments in global economic conjuncture. Still, world economy is struggling with weak investment, trade, and growth. Despite this gloomy global climate, Turkey gives a promising impression within the league of emerging economies with its expertise in crisis management. Although Turkish banking sector is the key strength of the economy, financial system should be deepened and enriched further as the economy tries to take steps to materialize the project of the Istanbul International Finance Centre. Considering the case of United Kingdom as an Islamic finance hub, it is quite clear that participating banking in Turkey could contribute more to the local conventional banking by its differentiated pool of tools. Besides, capital markets in Turkey could reach a larger audience by covering Islamic financial products in addition to the traditional range of products. A deeper and richer financial system could support the real sector by efficient allocation of resources. It can both strengthen the resilience of the economy toward potential downswings and contribute to the growth of the economy.

The Safe Assets Shortage Conundrum

A safe asset is a simple debt instrument that is expected to preserve its value during adverse systemic events. The supply of safe assets, private and public, has historically been concentrated in a small number of advanced economies, most prominently the United States. Over the last few decades, with minor cyclical interruptions, the supply of safe assets has not kept up with global demand. The reason is straightforward: the collective growth rate of the advanced economies that produce safe assets has been lower than the world's growth rate, which has been driven disproportionately by the high growth rate of high-saving emerging economies such as China. The signature of this growing shortage is a steady increase in the price of safe assets; equivalently, global safe interest rates must decline, as has been the case since the 1980s. The early literature, brought to light by Ben Bernanke's famous “savings glut” speech of 2005, focused on a general shortage of assets without isolating its safe asset component. The distinction, however, has become increasingly important over time, particularly in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage crisis and its sequels. We begin by describing the main facts and macroeconomic implications of safe asset shortages. Faced with such a structural conundrum, what are the likely short- to medium-term escape valves? We analyze four of them, each with its own macroeconomic and financial trade-offs.

The Effects of Global Financial Crisis on International Trade: Exchange Rate Volatility vs. Finance. Case of Cameroon

Valuations of currencies and their variability are often noted to have inexplicable aftermaths on international trade, and the overall economic performance. This paper sets to find out empirically, the effects of financial crisis on international trade. We limited our study by focusing on the relationship between exchange rate volatility versus finance for the Cameroonian economy using a time series of 40 years; 1975-2015. We calculated the standard deviation for exchange rate to get the values for exchange rate volatility, meanwhile values for exports, exchange rate and WGR were obtained from various sources as outlined in chapter three. Using the gravity model of international trade, we found that, exchange rate, its volatility, and world growth rate determines the degree or the exports level an economy may achieve for a given period of time. Using data for Cameroon, I found a significant and positive relationship for the three mentioned factors (exchange rate, exchange volatility, and world growth rate) with exports. That is high exchange rates encourage Cameroonians and Cameroon businesses to engage more in exports. We strongly suggest and recommend a unique and single currency for the Cameroonian economy.

Global imbalances in the XIX, XX and the XXI centuries

We establish a new stylized fact: while the current account and the trade balances are positively correlated during the second globalization (1990s–2010s), they were negatively correlated during the first globalization (1870s–1910s). We show that the reason behind is that the world interest rate is currently low relatively to the world growth rate due to a “global saving glut”, while this was not the case during the first globalization.

Study on nano capillary in the polymer nanotube arrays growth by anodic aluminum oxide(AAO) template wetting

ABSTRACTThe classical rate formula of liquid flowing in the capillary was used to study the nano capillary phenomenon in the growth of polymer nanotubes. Two methods were used. The first was the direct measurement, the other was the visual experimental certification. Through the γ, θc, η, SEM measurement, the results shown the growth rate of capillary driven in nano-world was slower than macroscopic world growth rate by 103, it was not tally with the fact. It was because the used solvent was volatile solvent instead of non-volatile solvent. The great difference was deduced by the volatility of solvent. So the classical capillary rate formula do not apply to the nanotube growth process by Anodic Aluminum Oxide(AAO) template wetting.

Innovation and imitation in a model of North–South trade

This paper analyzes the growth and welfare effects of trade openness within a North–South framework that predicts the observed intra-industry trade and the North–South specialization over different quality vintages within product lines. The model is used to re-examine the relationship between the innovation in the North and the imitation lag of the South and to address the implications of the (weak) international Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) protection. When the imitation technology is modeled as a function of increasing complexity of targeted products, opening to trade increases the growth rate and welfare of both regions, but results in a larger North–South quality gap. While a full catch-up is possible with no protection of ideas flow, but also with no trade, the quality gap is always positive under full economic integration including trade in goods. Stronger IPR protection increases the gap and has a negative effect on the world growth rate and welfare.

Trade and Growth in an Unequal Global Economy

This paper studies the patterns of trade and the incentives to innovate in an unequal global economy. We introduce non-homothetic preferences in a general-equilibrium model of endogenous growth and international trade between two countries, and argue that the effects of market integration on the consequent trade patterns and the incentives to innovate depend on the degree of income inequality across countries. We find that if inequality across countries is low, the extensive margin of trade between countries is high whereas the world growth rate is low. The introduction of non-homothetic preferences rises a number of interesting questions that are not an issue in the standard model. For example, we discuss the design of intellectual property rights, in particular national vs. international exhaustion of patents, and argue that households in poor and rich countries might not see eye to eye depending on how poor households weigh future losses in consumption against present gains. Furthermore, we address the welfare consequences of a trade liberalization, and show that households in the poor country might loose relative to households in the rich country if trade costs fall from a high to a sufficiently low level.

Migration, Skill Composition and Growth

The UK, with its relatively liberal immigration policies following recent enlargements, has been one of the main recipients of migrants from new EU member states. This paper poses the questions: what is the effect of immigration on a receiving economy such as the UK? Is the effect beneficial or adverse for growth? Does emigration have brain drain effects on sending economies? How differently would skilled (or unskilled) migration affect both receiving and sending economies? What factors would contribute to immigration/emigration benefits/costs and economic growth driven by migration? Who are the winners and losers in both the sending and host regions? We utilise a two-bloc endogenous growth model with labour mobility of different skill compositions to address these questions. We show that migration, in general, is beneficial to the receiving country and increases the world growth rate. With remittances, the sending country in aggregate can also benefit. The only exception is in the case of unskilled migration, which can actually have a detrimental impact on the world growth rate. This possibility however seems to be unlikely by our examination of migration trends. Winners are migrants, and the skill group in the region that sees its relative size decrease.