World Energy Outlook Research Articles

Quantification of global waste heat and its environmental effects

Waste heat is a major source of recoverable loss in societal energy use, offering significant potential for reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. A number of studies have been carried out to determine the size of the available resource but have been limited in scope or confined to the status quo. This work reports a method to quantify future global waste heat emissions from the Power Generation, Industry, Transport, and Buildings sectors, and investigates their environmental effects. Four projected energy landscapes (World Energy Outlook 2016: 1. Current Policies; 2. New Policies; 3. 450-scenario. 4. 100% renewable energy penetration) were simulated to assess the amount of waste heat produced in different sub-sectors in the year 2030. The impact of CO2 radiative forcing and various technological shifts are reported. Total waste heat emissions are found to account for 23.0–53.0% of global input energy depending on year and scenario, with a range of theoretical and economic recovery potentials of 6–12% and 6–9% respectively. Further insight is gained into the waste heat landscape through analysis of temperature and sectoral distributions, and identification of hotspots for targeted waste heat recovery. When considering emissions from 2014 to 2030, the integrated radiative forcing of CO2 is found to be 13 times greater than that of waste heat, primarily attributable to the former’s cumulative nature. Full recovery of the theoretical potential is found to lead to a 10–12% reduction in the combined forcing of CO2 and waste heat over this period, mainly due to a reduction in CO2 emissions. Under a conservative carbon tax, this reduction is estimated to offer potential economic savings of $20-77bn/year. A 10% increase in the penetration of solar/wind/tidal hydroelectric power and electric vehicles are found to decrease global waste heat losses in liquid and gaseous streams by 5% and 0.7–2.0%, respectively; retrofitting of Carbon Capture and Storage to power plants decreases CO2 radiative forcing, outweighing the increase in thermal radiative forcing from additional waste heat streams.

The politics of energy scenarios: Are International Energy Agency and other conservative projections hampering the renewable energy transition?

Scenario-building assists commissioning organisations to understand the multiple forces that shape their future. Governments and investors use the scenario projections of authoritative organisations to help drive their planning and decision-making. But what if scenarios consistently fail to represent a credibly established technology trajectory, particularly for a topic as critical as the world's future energy systems? We examine solar PV projections in 26 recent global energy scenarios, contrasting them with academic studies and other analyses, and find that they all fail to account fully for technology developments and recognise plausible upper levels of solar PV growth. Drilling deeper into the influential World Energy Outlook scenarios of the International Energy Agency, which are amongst the more conservative of the 26 scenarios, we explore possible reasons for, and the implications of, their projections for solar PV growth. We conclude that low scenario projections such as the IEA's are likely to deter investments in innovation and development that would otherwise occur. If authoritative scenarios fully acknowledge the possibility of continuing rapid growth of solar PV, investors, governments and the energy sector will be encouraged to take a more optimistic view of the market potential, thus creating positive feedback loops of belief, investment, and growth.

World Energy Council’s Global Energy Scenarios to 2060

Since 1970, global energy consumption has more than doubled. Conventional resources, in particular oil, gas and coal, had a dominant share in supply and covered most of the growth in demand in the past. Even in 2015, these fossil fuels still accounted for more than 80% of global primary energy consumption. The contribution of renewable energies to the total electricity generation was 23% in 2015, the same share as in 1970. Developments in the coming decades will differ substantially, however. Total energy consumption will rise at a much more moderate pace than in the past, e. g. by up to one third by 2060. Electricity consumption will double during this period. But even this is a considerable slowdown in growth compared with the five-fold increase seen between 1970 and 2015. And, unlike in the past, the emerging rise in consumption will essentially be covered by renewable energy sources. This is true especially for the electricity sector. This comparison with developments in the past shows the extent of the global energy transformation that may be expected in future. These developments are reflected in three global scenarios, which were published by the World Energy Council in October 2016. The results of this flagship study World Energy Scenarios to 2060 are mirrored with the main findings of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the U.S. EIA’s International Energy Outlook. The most important challenge indicated by the results of the mentioned studies is: the transformation, which is expected in the covered scenarios is not sufficient, in order to achieve the target of limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels that was agreed by the international community of states in Paris at the end of 2015. It will be highlighted, which strategies could meet the requirement cost-efficiently—a prerequisite for its success.

Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty

Scenarios and projections are important for decision and policy making. Accuracy of past projections can be useful for both scenario users and developers, for insight on current projection uncertainty, and for guiding improvement efforts. This paper compiles projections of oil production, oil prices and upstream investments from the years 2000 to 2016 from the annual World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency, and investigates revisions and accuracy of past projections and implied uncertainty of current ones. Revisions of world oil production, price and investments have been motivated by a combination of demand and supply factors. Downward revisions are mainly allocated to OPEC, while recent upward revisions are due to unconventional oil, in particular US tight oil. Non-OPEC conventional projections have been stable. Price and investments have been revised mostly upwards. Projection accuracy follows the size and directions of these revisions, with high accuracy for Non-OPEC (mean absolute percentage error of 4.8% on a 5 year horizon) and low for OPEC (8.9%) and unconventional (37%). Counteracting error directions contribute to accurate total World oil supply projections (4%) while price projections have low accuracy (37%). Scenario users should be aware of implied uncertainty of current oil projections. In planning and decision making, uncertainty ranges such as those presented here can be used as benchmarks. Scenario developers should focus improvements efforts on three areas in particular: tight oil, OPEC and new technology.

Chemical Process Design for Manufacture of Xylene Isomers

According to the World Energy Outlook, the demand for coal will increase if conservative measures are not taken. As a result, carbon dioxide emissions will increase from coal use. Current manufacturing facilities use a large amount of external utilities, but measures can be taken to reduce the amount of energy such a facility needs by using energy generated from process streams. Using process data from a process of toluene conversion, the energy requirements for a pilot scale and full-scale manufacturing plant were minimized using pinch analysis and the resulting heat exchanger network was designed. A cost analysis was performed to determine the monetary savings associated with the new plant design, as well as the amount of coal saved as a result. Since para-xylene is the most valuable xylene isomer produced, the production of the isomer was optimized by modeling the concentration profiles with several reactor systems. The dynamics of a heat exchanger were examined and modeled using the heat exchanger equation. The temperature profile as a function of both time and exchanger position was obtained using both a finite element analysis and using an analytical solution.

Comments: Signs of Recovery

Editor's column After 3 tough years of cost cuts and downsizing, the oil industry is seeing signs of new life in a lower-price environment. Companies are hiring again, salaries have rebounded, and large producers are posting profits. The oil and gas industry is finally hiring and may begin to face worker shortages in some areas. Since oil prices crashed in 2014, more than 440,000 jobs in the industry have been cut worldwide. But next year, almost 90% of employers expect that staffing levels will either stabilize or increase in 2018, according to a survey by NES Global Talent and oilandgasjobsearch.com. Almost 60% of employers expect to recruit significantly over the next year. Of the companies that are hiring, 23% expect to increase their workforce by 5%, 19% plan to increase staffing by between 5 and 10%; and 17% expect to increase hiring by more than 10%. Almost half of employers expect salaries to rise. SPE’s annual industry salary survey also paints a brighter picture. Industry professionals reported average total compensation of $194,649 this year, a $9,000 increase from 2016 although still down from 2014 and earlier. Compared with 2016, mean base pay, other compensation, and total compensation all rose in 2017. Oil prices have finally crossed the $50/bbl threshold, with Brent over $60/bbl in mid-November. Rising prices, along with sharp cost cutting, are leading to operator profits. The supermajors—including ExxonMobil, Total, Chevron, Shell, and BP—all posted healthy third-quarter earnings and solid year-over-year improvement in cash flow and profits. In delivering their earnings, both BP and Shell said they would remain profitable even if oil prices dipped into the high-$40/bbl range. The large service companies, such as Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, were more circumspect in their outlooks but see a foundation laid for better days ahead. OPEC also sees positive days ahead in its latest forecast. It predicts that global oil demand in 2018 will grow and that non-OPEC production will not increase as fast as previously thought. Along with its production cuts, that will continue to reduce excess oil in storage. OPEC, Russia, and a handful of other producers agreed to cut output by 1.8 million B/D, and compliance with the agreement has been stellar. OPEC’s report concedes that it did not kill off North American shale when it flooded the market with oil 3 years ago, and that shale will continue to see strong supply growth. A new International Energy Agency reports confirms OPEC’s conclusion on shale’s staying power. The IEA said the supply surge in shale output will lead to the largest gains in the history of the industry. By 2025, the US will match Saudi Arabia in oil production and surpass the former Soviet Union in gas output, according to its World Energy Outlook. The US oil industry “weathered the turbulent period of lower oil prices since 2014 with remarkable fortitude,” according to the report.

Global energy markets in turmoil

The world’s energy systems are being transformed, driven by rapid deployment and falling prices of renewable energy sources, more dependence on electricity for energy needs, a shift to a cleaner services-based economy, and a flood of oil and natural gas from the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency’s “World Energy Outlook 2017.” The annual report shows the U.S. is now the undisputed leader in oil and natural gas production and export. A predicted doubling of liquid natural gas shipments will allow the world to take advantage of this natural gas availability. Because natural gas emits half as much carbon dioxide as coal when burned for fuel, it helps limit climate change, IEA notes. However, that benefit is lost if methane, a strong greenhouse gas and the primary compound in natural gas, leaks during production. The report predicts 30% growth in electricity demand worldwide by 2040. Two-thirds of the growth

Risk and Reward: Bringing Light to Africa

President's column Africa was first called the “Dark Continent” in the 19th century. The term is originally credited to the famous explorer Henry Stanley from his 1878 book “Through the Dark Continent.” Back then, Africa was a mysterious and dangerous place for European explorers. Today, when I conclude most of my presentations, I use the NASA satellite photograph of the world at night. In it, Africa is mostly dark, so from an energy standpoint, it’s still a “dark continent.” According to the World Energy Outlook 2017, two-thirds of people in sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to electricity. More than half of the population uses wood and charcoal as its primary energy sources, and that is expected to continue until 2040. Lack of access to energy holds back the promise of Africa and its people. I have spent a lot of time in Africa in the past 10 years. Not only have I traveled to Angola through my position with Chevron, but I also have vacationed there. Most recently, I have traveled to Angola as SPE President. Africa is, in many ways, the final frontier. There are many exciting new developments in African exploration and production that hold tremendous potential to bring more energy and prosperity to the continent—and shine a light of affordable, abundant energy. West Africa has dominated the continent’s production for more than 50 years since Shell/BP began production in the Oloibiri field in the Niger Delta in 1958. Similarly, Gulf Oil—now Chevron—began offshore production in the Cabinda province of the Congo River basin in Angola in 1968. Angola had a long history of oil seeps dating to 1700s. The first onshore production was in the Benfica field in 1956, but the Malongo field was the first significant commercial production. Despite long enjoying control over African production, both Nigeria and Angola are now struggling to find the right split between government and commercial interests for in-vestment to continue. Estimates are that investment in deep-water Angola and Nigeria has been cut by USD 100 billion. Without new investment, production will decline by half of its current level. Nigeria is restructuring its governance and petroleum industry financing, which—if successful—should bring stability and greater investment back into the Niger Delta. Offshore Angola projects are suspended across all operators, pending fiscal reforms that reduce government share under current production-sharing contracts, which can be as high as 90%.

How accurate are energy intensity projections?

Recent projections of energy intensity predict a more rapid decline in intensity than has occurred in the recent past. To assess how well such projections have performed in the past, I assess the accuracy of the business as usual energy intensity projections embedded in the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) produced by the International Energy Agency since 1994. Changes in energy intensity depend on economic growth, and historical errors in projecting energy intensity can partly be explained by errors in projecting the rate of economic growth. However, recent projections of the elasticity of energy intensity with respect to economic growth probably overstate the likely future reduction in energy intensity even if economic growth is projected accurately. This could be because energy efficiency policies are not implemented as effectively as expected or because the economy-wide rebound effect is larger than modeling assumes.

Why did the historical energy forecasting succeed or fail? A case study on IEA's projection

Medium-to-long term energy prediction plays a widely-acknowledged role in guiding national energy strategy and policy but could also lead to serious economic and social chaos when poorly executed. A consequent issue may be the effectiveness of these predictions, and sources that errors can be traced back to. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) concerning energy demand based on its long term world energy model (WEM) under specific assumptions towards uncertainties such as population, macroeconomy, energy price and technology. Unfortunately, some of its predictions succeeded while others failed. We in this paper attempt to decompose the leading source of these errors quantitatively. Results suggest that GDP acts as the leading source of demand forecasting errors while fuel price comes thereafter, which requires extra attention in forecasting. Gas, among all fuel types witness the most biased projections. Ignoring the catch-up effect of acquiring rapid economic growth in developing countries such as China will lead to huge mistake in predicting global energy demand. Finally, asymmetric cost of under- and over-estimation of GDP suggests a potentially less conservative stance in the future.

Recent Trends in the World Gas Market: Economical, Geopolitical and Environmental Aspects

Natural gas is considered by energy experts to be the most promising fossil fuel for the 21st century, and as a matter of fact, the International Energy Agency (IEA) introduced for the first time in the 2011 World Energy Outlook a high gas use scenario called the “Golden Age of Gas”. Natural gas is an easy to burn and clean fuel; its proven reserves are large and furthermore, enormous possibilities are offered by unconventional resources. There are anyway some geopolitical concerns in the global gas market, since the most important reserves are concentrated in a limited number of countries; the environmental impacts in the extraction of shale gas should also be taken into account. The paper presents an updated and thorough overview of recent advances and trends in the global gas market, highlighting the role of Europe in the World scenario. Statistical data from the main international reports are presented; economical, geopolitical and especially environmental aspects are presented and discussed.

A Question of Authenticity: Status Quo Bias and the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook

Over the past decade, transition scholars have argued that images of the future (of what sort of change is possible or probable, desirable or undesirable) play a critical role in societal transitions, and there is a long-standing tradition of analysis that points out the political significance of visions of the future. This article explores the politics of the future in sustainability transitions by looking at controversy surrounding a prominent global energy future report—the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook—between 1998 and 2008/2009. A key theme of this controversy was that the Outlook's record on global oil supply projections demonstrated a bias towards the preservation of the status quo. Based on research interviews conducted with key participants in this controversy, and a review of Outlooks produced between 1998 and 2008, we explore the main ‘sites of contention’ in the allegation of bias from both an ‘internal’ (sympathetic) and an ‘external’ (critical) perspective. We argue that the politics of bias have less to do with one's relationship vis-à-vis the preservation of the regime, and more to do with a question concerning the speaker's authenticity.

Comments: The IEA’s Prediction

Editor's column The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new energy outlook paints a generally optimistic view of the supply/demand balance and oil price picture to 2020. The annual report is one of the most widely watched and respected energy forecasts. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2015 offers two possible scenarios for the near future: a tightening supply/demand balance that leads to oil prices rising to around USD 80/bbl by 2020, and a less optimistic view that has oil in the USD 50–60/bbl range 5 years from now. Here are the highlights of the report: The IEA’s “central scenario” sees oil prices gradually rising to USD 80/bbl by 2020 and continuing to increase after that. On the demand side, that prediction hinges on global consumption increasing by 900,000 B/D per year. The supply side outlook sees declining non-OPEC production as the upstream price cutting that began this year begins to take hold. Some estimates have companies cutting up to 20% of global upstream spending this year. A BP executive last month was quoted as saying that oil majors have canceled 80 projects this year and cut capital expenditures by as much as USD 22 billion. The agency also believes that OPEC cannot indefinitely keep its current strategy of flooding the market with oil to maintain market share. At some point in the near future, the loss in oil revenue to OPEC states will not be sustainable. The IEA is also somewhat skeptical that output growth from Iran and Iraq will not be a challenge. Tight oil growth in the US has changed the global oil market because of the short investment cycle of tight oil and its ability to respond quickly to price signals. That means that when oil prices do recover, growth in the US tight oil sector will recover with them and, in addition, producers are becoming increasingly adept at operational efficiency and use of technology. But the sweet spots eventually will be depleted and operations in less productive areas will lead to higher production costs. The IEA predicts that US tight oil production will reach a plateau in the early 2020s at slightly above 5 million B/D before beginning to decline. A period of “lower for longer” cannot be ruled out because of the possibility of tepid global economic and oil demand growth, OPEC’s continuation of its market share strategy, and resilient supply from US tight oil and other non-OPEC sources. However, the IEA considers this a less likely scenario. Global concern about climate change will continue to have an impact on the oil and gas industry. Investment and development in alternative energy sources is growing, as is support from government subsidies. The industry will come under additional pressure this month during the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris. “There should be no energy company in the world [which] believes that climate policies will not affect their business,” IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said in November. The conference goal is to reach a legally binding, global agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Earlier this year, 10 major energy companies declared support for a global deal on climate change, with some recommending that governments agree to carbon pricing as a key strategy. JPT

World energy outlook emphasises the need for low-carbon energy developments

World energy outlook emphasises the need for low-carbon energy developments

World Energy Outlook 2014 projections to 2040: natural gas and coal trade, and the role of China

The paper presents data and results from the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2014, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Over the period to 2040, total energy use is projected to grow by almost 40 per cent, while the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix falls. Nonetheless, these fossil fuels remain the dominant sources of energy, with oil, coal and gas each accounting for around one quarter of global energy needs by 2040. Increasingly, modern renewables are projected to replace fossil fuels, especially in the power sector. Around 93 per cent of the projected increased primary energy demand comes from non‐OECD countries, with two‐thirds coming from developing Asia, led by China. By 2025, China could account for almost a quarter of global energy use, doubling its share since the turn of the century. After 2025, India and other Asian countries surpass China as the main centres of energy demand growth. The IEA's WEO 2014 concludes that even taking into account ambitious policy measures announced as of mid to late 2014, energy growth projections place the world on a path consistent with a long‐term temperature increase of 3.6 degrees. Urgent action is required if the world's energy systems are to be steered towards lower greenhouse gas emissions.

PROTOCOL: Access to Electricity for Improving Health, Education and Welfare in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries: A Systematic Review

PROTOCOL: Access to Electricity for Improving Health, Education and Welfare in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Techno-Economic Assessment of Four CO2Storage Sites

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) should be a key technology in order to achieve a decline in the CO2 emissions intensity of the power sector and other intensive industry, but this potential deployment could be restricted by cost issues as the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their last projections (World Energy Outlook 2013) has considered only around 1% of global fossil fuel-fired power plants could be equipped with CCS by 2035. The SiteChar project funded by 7 th Framework Programme of European Commission gives the opportunity to evaluate the most influential parameters of techno-economic evaluations of four feasible European projects for CO2 geological storage located onshore and offshore and related to aquifer storage or oil and gas reservoirs, at different stages of characterization. Four potential CO2 storage sites have been assessed in terms of storage costs per tonne of CO2 permanently stored (equivalent cost based). They are located offshore UK, onshore Denmark, offshore Norway and offshore Italy. The four SiteChar techno-economic evaluations confirm it is not possible to derive any meaningful average cost for a CO2 storage site. The results demonstrate that the structure of costs for a project is heterogeneous and the storage cost is consequently site dependent. The strategy of the site development is fundamental, the technical choices such as the timing, rate and duration of injection are also important. The way monitoring is managed, using observation wells and logging has a strong impact on the estimated monitoring costs. Options to lower monitoring costs, such as permanent surveys, exist and should be further investigated. Table 1 below summarizes the cost range in Euro per tonne (Discount Rate (DR) at 8%) for the different sites, which illustrates the various orders of magnitude due to the specificities of each site. These figures have how to be considered with care. In particular the Italian and Norwegian sites present very specific features that explain the high estimated costs. For the Italian site, the short duration of CO2 injection associated with a low injection rate makes the CO2 project comparable to a demo project. The Norwegian site is an offshore site located in a virgin area with high infrastructure costs and a combination of injection duration and injection rate that makes the derived costs very sensitive to the discount rate.

World Energy Outlook 2014 Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa Today

World Energy Outlook 2014 Energy in Sub-Saharan Africa Today

Location of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from thermal power plants in India along the urban-rural continuum

Greenhouse gases are the prime cause of climate change, to which India is a significant party. Globally the issue of sub-national or local emissions is increasingly gaining relevance, particularly post-2009, when greater-half of the world has become urbanized for the first time in the human history. International Energy Agency, in its World Energy Outlook report estimates that 70% of the greenhouse gases are produced within the cities. But, there is limited empirical evidence to substantiate such claims in the Indian context. It being a developing country with a large rural population base, the carbon footprint of cities goes unnoticed. On the other hand, unreeling economic growth and rapid urbanization during the last two decades, coupled with limited data in the subject pressingly seeks a systematic determination of urban emission baseline. This research analyzes historic trends of urbanization, thermal power generation and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, and evaluates their growth trajectories for the imminent future. This paper is also a first time investigation of urban India's (covering over 7000 Indian towns and cities) contribution of GHG emissions. In absence of any international protocol or a standard methodology to estimate urban GHG burdens of a nation, this paper deals with theoretical issues evident while allocating city emissions like methodological differences, defining ‘urban’ and its boundary and the need to consider downscaling of nationally reported emissions using spatial analysis based on production or location perspective of the most significantly contributing sector namely, energy. Dataset of 454 thermal units reported by Central Electricity Authority for 2011–12 from over hundred coal, diesel, gas and liquid fuel based gas turbine plants has been assessed. The individual plants are verified for their name, capacity, generation and local address from their respective state generation corporations or electricity boards, as applicable. They are then spatially located real time, using universally available (and verifiable) web-based mapping tool of Google Earth and Wikimapia. The information has been assessed on the urban-rural gradient, using population based Census definition for class/hierarchy of towns and their location with respect to the urban boundary. The thermal power plants have eventually been classified within the urban area, on the periphery, transitional or rurban and absolutely rural. The results present an array of emissions, across the urban hierarchy and location in space, underpinning how substantial GHG emissions are attributable to urban and urbanizing areas. The research puts forth, with strong evidence, that in contrast to the general postulation, urban settlements radically contribute to national carbon footprint, which is further bound to increase with urbanization. The findings bear significance to influence research, policy and action in energy and urban sectors and greater cross-sector integration for co-benefits in climate change mitigation at the local city level.

Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets

Assessing and quantifying the impacts of technological, economic, and policy shifts in the global energy system require large-scale numerical models. We propose a dynamic multi-fuel market equilibrium model that combines endogenous fuel substitution within demand sectors and in power generation, detailed infrastructure capacity constraints and investment, as well as strategic behaviour and market power aspects by suppliers in a unified framework. This model is the first of its kind in which market power is exerted across several fuels.Using a data set based on the IEA (International Energy Agency) World Energy Outlook 2013 (New Policies scenario, time horizon 2010–2050, 30 regions, 10 fuels), we illustrate the functionality of the model in two scenarios: a reduction of shale gas availability in the US relative to current projections leads to an even stronger increase of power generation from natural gas in the European Union relative to the base case; this is due to a shift in global fossil fuel trade. In the second scenario, a tightening of the EU ETS emission cap by 80% in 2050 combined with a stronger biofuel mandate spawns a renaissance of nuclear power after 2030 and a strong electrification of the transportation sector. We observe carbon leakage rates from the unilateral mitigation effort of 60–70%.