Development Of World Economy Research Articles

Some Comments on the Assessment of the Potential Role of Transit from China through the Baltic States

At present, with the opportunities of the previous model of world economic development exhausted, only countries building alternative models of global cooperation will have good economic prospects. In this conditions the new role of Russia, China is traced. This article examines the experience and prospects of cooperation between Beijing and the Baltic countries, including within the framework of the well-known project “One Belt — One Way”.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ І СУПЕРЕЧНОСТІ СТАНОВЛЕННЯ НАЦІОНАЛЬНОЇ ІННОВАЦІЙНОЇ СИСТЕМИ У ГЛОБАЛЬНОМУ ІННОВАЦІЙНОМУ СЕРЕДОВИЩІ

Objective. The main goal is to identify the prerequisites, factors and nature of the formation of the national innovation system in global innovation environment. Methods. The study uses such methods as: morphological – to define the concept of ″national innovation system″, systemic analysis – to study transformation factors in the innovation system and peculiarities of the development of the national innovation system, methods of comparative analysis – to identify the nature and to compare the types of innovation transformations of the national innovation system in global innovation competition, integrated approach – to determine directions of contradictions in the implementation of the national innovation system. Results. The article defines that the national innovation system is a universal instrument for implementing novations and innovations. The concept of the development of the national innovation system of Ukraine defines the national innovation system which includes subsystems: state regulation, education, knowledge generation, innovation infrastructure, production. The author proves the development of the national innovation system connected with qualitative structural shifts in the world economy development, which is directly determined transformation in the innovation system under the influence of internal and external factors in global innovation environment. Based on the study of the content of the national innovation system and the innovation factors of its formation, the objective and subjective features of its development are summarized. The nature and types of innovation transformations of the national innovation system in global innovation competition are revealed. The directions of contradictions of the implementation of the national innovation system, which contribute to the restructuring of the entire system of economic relations through the implementation of innovations: property relations, goals and means of economic growth, the structure of the economy, distribution relations, the type of reproduction, are defined and substantiated. Scientific novelty. The author proves that the level of innovation infrastructure and the share of private and public sectors in it, the depth of interaction between countries in the innovation sphere, and the innovation potential of the country's regional economic systems is to be considered objective features of the development of the national innovation system. Strategic orientations for the formation of the national innovation system in Ukraine are also determined: deepening of international scientific, technical and innovation cooperation between Ukraine and the EU regarding the acquisition and use of innovative knowledge; cooperation in the field of innovation infrastructure development; participation in EU programs; transfer of advanced technologies. Practical significance. The study of the mechanism of formation of the national innovation system provides an opportunity to develop the concept of the innovation type of development of the national economy. Key words: global innovation environment, national innovation system, innovation transformations, contradictions, evolution, adaptation.

Impact of COVID-19 to China and World Economy Development

Impact of COVID-19 to China and World Economy Development

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ ФИНАНСОВО-ХОЗЯЙСТВВЕННОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ СУБЪЕКТОВ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ В СОВРЕМЕННЫХ РЕАЛИЯХ

The article discusses the prospects for the development of economic entities of Russia. Enterprises exist in a developing world economy and an increasingly absorbing globalization. The scientific and theoretical aspects of the essence and nature of economic restrictions, the features of financial and economic activity in conditions of uncertainty are studied. Much attention is paid to the analysis of various methods of support in a difficult situation on the part of the state. The financial situation has a positive impact on the implementation of production plans and the provision of production needs with the necessary resources. Successful work of an economic entity contributes to socioeconomic growth not only in the region, but also at the macroeconomic level.

Business Intelligence a potrzeby Just Culture. Analiza możliwości współdziałania wysoko zaawansowanych technologii i potrzeb organizacji gospodarczych

Purpose – The aim of the publication is to present the principles of security of business processes at airports – Just Culture and the transplantation of these principles into process -oriented business environments of enterprises with the use of Business Intelligence. Research method – By the method of comparisons and references of the priority importance of the security of airport business processes for the ability of these entities to function in relation to the essence of the security of business processes of enterprises in their industries, the authors showed areas for new qualitative applications of Just Culture in non -airport organizations conditioned by Business Intelligence applications.Results – According to the authors, the priority of the safety of airport operations, which subordinates all processes of these commercial organizations and international ci vil aviation, may be in the conditions of dynamically growing uncertainty in the functioning of enterprises, a breakthrough inspiration for commercial entities from other industries in the field of security protection implemented through economic processes. The essence of the issue is important for management practitioners. The perspective of Just Culture’s attitude to the economic use of employees’ knowledge resources, innovative for this environment, extends this spectrum with the ability to use them to strengthen and increase the implementation of security and reliability of the company’s business processes under the condition of unconventional use of the knowledge resources of the employee capital. Originality / value / implications / recommendations – The analogy method of examining the breakthrough impact of the Internet on the dynamics of the development of entre-preneurship and world economies, made available to business by the military, initially the sole user of this information technology, the authors see the possibilities of strengthening the security of business processes of economic organizations by adapting rules that Just Culture used exclusively in the aviation industry to their process structure.

Construction of Management Potential and Symmetrical Leadership Quality Model in Information Environment

With the deepening of the reform and opening-up policy, especially the deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the issue of entrepreneurs has begun to be highly valued by academia and enterprises. The history of world economic and social development tells us that entrepreneurial leadership is destined to be an important and scarce resource, and the supply capacity of entrepreneurial leadership is far less than the demand for entrepreneurial leadership. The universality, cutting-edge and scientificity of management potential are the premise of management potential, which makes us have a further understanding of management potential. Therefore, under the innovation and promotion of many enterprises, the construction of leadership quality model is defined. Through continuous analysis and progress, the theory centered on "using modern information technology" was finally put forward. This paper discusses the phenomenon of management potential in the information environment and analyzes its causes. On this basis, from the perspective of symmetrical leadership, it discusses the solution to the quality model construction and realizes the transparency of management.

МІЖНАРОДНИЙ ОБМІН ВИСОКИМИ ТЕХНОЛОГІЯМИ ЯК ЧИННИК ДРАЙВЕРУ ГЛОБАЛЬНОГО СПІЛОВЕРУ ЗНАНЬ

The key immanent feature of global economic development in recent decades is the dynamic intellectualization of all spheres of reproduction of the global social product. Concentratedly accumulating within itself the results of scientific, technical, technological and innovative activities achieved by human civilization, it acquires its material expression in a significant increase in the contribution of intellectual factors to the structural dynamics of world economic development, the development of the information society and knowledge economy in global coordinates, and systematic involvement in the world's reproductive processes innovative technologies, comprehensive implementation of progressive methods of organization and management of production, increasing the scale of production of innovatively capable products, deep technological modernization of corporate strategies and business models. The steady increase in scale and high structural dynamics of modern interstate exchange of high technologies determine its key characteristics such as universality, technological convergence, product-species differentiation, institutional-regulatory diversification and organic connection with structural transformations of all sectors of the global production complex. Despite the unconditional competitive leadership of the developed countries of the world in the high-tech segment of the global market, in recent decades, a number of newly industrialized countries and states with newly created markets are actively emerging as leaders of global innovation progress. These countries have not only achieved a high level of development of the high-tech sphere and occupied a worthy place on the global innovation map, but are now really claiming the redistribution of the high-tech segment of the world market and entering into fierce competition with global leaders. The key to their success was large-scale state support for fundamental and applied research and development, effective technological clustering of national economies, their deep integration into the global innovation space, as well as the development of deep cooperative ties with leading Western corporations and the systematic modernization of national university education systems.

ТІНЬОВА ЕКОНОМІКА В ГЛОБАЛЬНОМУ СЕРЕДОВИЩІ: КОМПЛЕКСНЕ ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ФАКТОРІВ

Awareness of the growing impact of the shadowing of economic activity on the scale and structural parameters of the world economy objectively requires a comprehensive study of the system of factors that determine its nature, preconditions and vector orientation in the context of global economic development. We believe that the combination of these factors of political, legal, economic, socio-cultural and informational-communicative nature essentially form the environment for the functioning of the shadow sector of the global economy. It is a kind of "aura" that accompanies and mediates the shadow business transactions of economic entities of different nationalities, as well as in specific historical conditions and spatio-temporal boundaries forms the scale and main directions of shadowing of economic activity. In other words, its global environment is represented by quantitative and qualitative factors that have a decisive influence on the motivation of economic entities to implement shadow business operations, the state and value of shadow transactions, the development of corporate strategies and business models of shadowing, and cause the most significant shifts in the structure of world production and employment. At the same time, another important circumstance cannot be overlooked: the general vector of shadowing of financial and economic operations of economic entities is formed in modern conditions both on the basis of objective economic laws and as a result of systemic influence of global trends of world economic development. nonlinear and emergent factors of civilizational social progress. It should also be noted that while the pre-globalization stage of the world economy was characterized by the dominant one-vector influence of the exogenous environment on the processes of shadowing economic activity, global conditions determine the formation of a qualitatively new - dialectically-mutually determined - model of shadow economy. It is characterized, on the one hand, by the strong influence of the global environment on the activities of shadow business structures with a significant diversification of factors taken into account in the development and implementation of corporate strategies and business models, and on the other - by deep structuring of the shadow economy. compliance with their own economic interests and operational and strategic objectives.

ПРОГНОСТИЧНА ПАРАДИГМА РОЗВИТКУ СВІТОВОГО РИНКУ ПРАЦІ

The article is devoted to the analysis of key aspects of the world economy labor supply in the context of the world labor market development prognostic paradigm. It is emphasized that at the current stage of world economic development, the importance of the world labor market development forecasting is increasing. This is the respond in advance to probable challenges of labor supply on a global scale in order to optimize the labor supply of national economies. Forecasting trends of the labor market development serves as the basis for the development of effective levers for managing international labor flows in the context of optimizing the labor supply of national economies. It is emphasized that the prognostic paradigm serves as the basis for the application of a program-targeted approach to the labor market regulation at all levels, which based on the determination of long-term target orientations of the socio-economic development of states in accordance with world standards. Taking into account the difference in approaches in global practice to the need for labor force analysis and forecasting, it was concluded that the development of multi-scenario forecasts, which are based on systematic monitoring of current and prospective volumes of labor demand and supply, is of particular relevance. It is noted that the importance of predictive assessments and the determination of optimal ways of providing labor resources to national economies is growing due to the strengthening of the personnel shortage problem on a global scale against the background of growing labor resource dependence from developed countries. Key words: global labor market, international labor flows, labor supply, labor market forecast, polyscenarios forecast, labor market monitoring.

СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ РОЗВИТОК ПОСТСОЦІАЛІСТИЧНИХ КРАЇН: СУПЕРЕЧЛИВІ ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ ТА ВИКЛИКИ СУЧАСНОСТІ

The article analyses the social and economic development of 14 post-socialist countries from 2001 to 2020. By assessing their clustering, a conclusion was made about the contradictory combination of two evolution tendencies of these countries: simultaneous deployment of processes of divergence, asymmetry of their social and economic development and deployment of convergence processes, and formation of separate clusters of the specified countries. In particular, the European Union member states, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, formed a separate cluster in 2020, characterized by the highest GDP per capita in the group, the share of expenditure on education and the highest level of the spending on health care in GDP. A separate cluster was formed by Ukraine and Moldova, potential EU candidate countries. The place of Ukraine among the considered countries in the period 2001-2020 and in modern conditions was analyzed. It was concluded that the indicators of socio-economic development of Ukraine demonstrate cyclical dynamics under the influence of global factors and shocks, taking into account the turning point events for the whole world in 2022. It was noted that new world order is currently developing. There are new initiatives and concepts within the EU, which provide great opportunities for Ukraine for European integration. In this context, the institutional factors of convergent and divergent development of post-socialist countries, which will be aimed at resolving the existing military and political conflicts, settlement of global imbalances, stabilization of world economic development, have an essential role.

Мережева економіка: еволюція розвитку, передумови становлення концепції, концептуальні підходи до визначення

New economic conditions in the context of the information and technological revolution led to an increase in the role and importance of intangible factors of production, in particular information and knowledge resources. Transformational processes that covered all aspects of society, turned it from industrial one to post-industrial service-information (network-based) one with the appropriate type of economy. All this, in turn, determines that the dominant tendency of the contemporary world economic development is the formation of a network economy, which leads to radical transformations of various spheres of economic activity. In view of this, the study is aimed at the theoretically summarizing and systematizing the exitant conceptual approaches to the interpretation of the concept of «network economy»; substantiating the authors’ approach to defining the content of this scientific category. As result of the study, it is found that the concept of «network economy» is synonymous with such definitions as: high-tech economics; knowledge economy; global, new, informational, digital, digitalized, virtual, information and network-based, electronic, cognitive, noospheric, creative, service, innovative, intellectual economy; post-industrial society; information society; network intelligence society; e-business, etc. Using a system approach and the classification method, the interpretations of the term «network economy», which are proposed by various scientific schools, are conditionally systematized in the following groups: the basis of the information society; new economic system; a new type of economy; state of the economy; specific form of organization; a qualitatively new form of management of the national economy; type of economic system; type of post-industrial economy; characteristics of the global economy; form of innovative economy; innovation factor; system of new economic relations; multilevel spatial structure; structured information space; interactive environment; form of economic activity; an instrument to increase the level of development of the knowledge economy; national security mechanism. The article provides an authors’ approach to defining the category of «network economy» as a new type of economic environment resulting from the digitalization of fast-growing, highly interactive real-time connections between economic agents, different categories of stakeholders, digital technologies, information systems, devices, electronic networks. It is proposed that network economy as a category be considered according to the three positions: as an economic activity carried out through electronic and computer networks; as a global information environment where subjects of economic relations can contact each other about joint activities using digital technologies; as a fundamentally new form of management of the national economy, based on horizontal (direct) long-term partnerships between economic entities in a single digital space in the context of globalization.

Regional Economic Statistics and Green Development: Ecological Thinking for Environmental Quality Development.

Through more than 40 years of China's reform and opening up, China's economic development has exceeded the “surprise of China”. China's annual average growth rate for world economic development ranks second in the world. By 2020, the article has achieved all-round poverty eradication and overall happiness. By 2020, this article will write an epic antipandemic with great love. During the “fourteenth five-year plan” period, China has entered a new stage of high-quality social and economic development, but environmental pollution is still one of the primary obstacles to high-quality social and economic development. Because of its diversity, environmental pollution cannot be reasonably handled only by the market economic system. It also needs to be based on the effectiveness of the natural environment supervision policies of government departments. At the same time, the healthy logical thinking of the development trend of high-quality natural environment is the key to regional economic statistics and the concept of green development. In this paper, empirical research and analysis methods are used, and the description is carried out in the form of data charts.

ВПЛИВ Е-ТОРГІВЛІ НА ГЛОБАЛІЗАЦІЙНІ ПЕРЕТВОРЕННЯ У СВІТІ ТА В УКРАЇНІ

The article examines different approaches of scientists to the impact of e-commerce on globalization transformations in the world and in Ukraine. E-commerce has become a primary factor in accelerating the process of globalization. The increase in the value of goods exported and imported around the world reflects the development of international trade, globalization, and technological progress. The trends of world economic development were analyzed and the correlation between economic growth and trade was revealed. The author studied the dynamics of the share of retail e-commerce by region and analyzed the regional share of e-commerce in retail. Countries with fast growth in e-commerce differ from the list of e-commerce leaders, which indicates that the markets are oversaturated with goods, that is, supply outweighs demand. An analysis of countries with rapid growth in e-commerce, the level of Internet penetration, and the number of e-users was carried out. Attention is paid to the examination of the market capitalization of the leading e-commerce enterprises with capitalization around the world, and the largest e-commerce enterprises in the world and Ukraine are studied, and their influence on globalization transformations is established. It was revealed that the world's strongest economies and the world's largest e-enterprises are not always open to globalization transformations. A slowdown in economic growth means a decrease in the demand for imports of goods and services, as well as a weakening of the supply of capital. e-commerce will develop in the future according to two alternatives: the closeness of countries and stagnation of global economic institutions and unions with weakening of balanced economic growth and development; the regulation and expansion of free trade with increased competitiveness and the formation of a new structure of the world economy, which will ensure stable, balanced development.

ИМЭМО в первой половине 2000-х (Результаты исследований)

The article summarizes the results of the IMEMO academic affairs in the first half of the 2000s. Like before, the Institute combined fundamental theoretical and applied research. In its work, IMEMO focused on the study of global, regional and national problems of the modern world. An important achievement of the Institute during these years was the prepared long-term forecast of the world economy development until 2015. The annual (2000–2005) analytical reports on the study of armed conflicts, their prevention and control, as well as of global and regional trends in the development of military expenses can be considered another achievement of this kind. These reports were prepared at IMEMO together with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). IMEMO’s accomplishments include the fundamental work “Transitional Economy: Theoretical Aspects, Russian Problems, International Experience”. In this research, the theoretical problems of the transitional economy were deeply investigated with an emphasis on the achievements of world economic thought, international and accumulated Russian experience of transitional processes was analyzed. The IMEMO scientists were involved in comparative analysis of the influence of new factors (globalization, information civilization, integration processes, international terrorism, etc.) on modern Russia and foreign countries. Along with theoretical research, the Institute regularly prepared analytical materials and expert opinions for the Administration of the President of Russia, the Government, the Federation Council and the State Duma. The IMEMO employees took part in the preparation of materials for the annual messages of the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly, gave their recommendations on military reform and updating the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. The Institute was engaged in constant monitoring of the economic and internal situation in various regions and major states of the modern world. The focus of IMEMO analysts was the foreign policy of the United States, the European Union countries, the states of the Middle East, Central Asia and Latin America, as well as the Asia-Pacific region. This ongoing work was carried out in various departments and sectors of the Institute. The author presents the directions and main results of the work of these scientific departments. In general, one of the indicators of the overall performance of IMEMO in 2001–2006 are 256 monographs, collections of scientific papers, conference materials, brochures and reports published by its employees. During these years, the results of current work began to be posted on the IMEMO website.

An analysis for outsourcing based risks and problems in logistics enterprises

Nowadays businesses transform into the faster, less costly, more flexible, and qualified structure because of developing world economy and fierce competition environment with each passing day. Outsourcing as one of the most essential concepts related to strategic management is considered to meet all the aforementioned conditions. In fact, logistics enterprises composing the main theme of this study tend to the outsourcing like other businesses and prefer it to increase the competitive power and specialized in main area of activity. Despite outsourcing in logistics enterprises provide numerous opportunity and advantage, some risks and problems emerge in case of not achieving the desired accordance and coordination. In this context risks and problems caused by the outsourcing for enterprises operated in international logistics activities in Giresun province are determined and ranked via the q-rung orthopair fuzzy subjective weighting as one of the multi-criteria decision analysis approaches. According to the results, essential risks and problems caused by the outsourcing for logistics enterprises were found as "Loss of control over the outsourcing firm", "Inaccurate sales pitches", "Layoffs" and "Unfulfilled contract provisions" respectively.

Modern trends and problems of the global intellectual property market development

It is shown that active processes of digitalization and development of creative industries form new trends of the world economy development. Possession of the right to use IP, in particular the results of the latest scientific research and technological developments (especially in the field of artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, blockchain, processing large databases, quantum computing systems, cloud technologies, etc.) significantly expands the capabilities of the owner of IP rights in world economy, its participation in global value chains. Intellectual property is becoming not only the main instrument of socio-economic development, but also the center of global technological confrontation and a fierce struggle for the right to own it, a significant factor of success in geoeconomic competition. The main long-term trend in the development of world IP markets is the dynamic growth of the volume of commercial transactions with goods and services containing IP objects with a significant expansion of the range of the latter. The IP market is growing at a rate exceeding the rate of growth of “material” markets. The countryleader in the number of valid patents for a long period is the United States. The main competitor for the United States is China. Among the main technological trends, the development of the IP market in terms of assistive technologies should be highlighted, which allow producing products according to digital description anywhere in the world. A large share of the IP markets is occupied by trade in licenses. It is shown that for the further successful and effective development of IP markets, it is necessary to take into account the prospects for the functioning of IP markets and the movement of goods containing IP objects in a new technological order.

Mongolian Studies in the Czech Republic: Personalities, Centers, Current State

Nowadays, improving international relations and strengthening international ties are leading trends in the development of world economy. In the epoch of globalization, both western and eastern countries are trying to promote close mutually profitable partnership relations between countries, because it can serve as a trigger for their further gradual development. As it can be observed in the practice, in the 21st century, the dialogue between the developed European countries and the actively developing East is becoming especially successful and efficient for both parties. One of the unique examples of the interest of the West towards the East is the development of Oriental and Mongolian studies in the Czech Republic. Its climax can be observed in the 20th century. The author of the article proves that contemporary Mongolian studies in the Czech Republic play a significant role in European Oriental studies. Analysis of the scientific contribution of the leading Czech specialists in Mongolian studies: P. Poucha, Lumir Iisl, Ya. Vacek, I. Shima, I. Grollova is conducted. A brief description of the current state of Mongolian studies in Charles University in Prague, the Czech Republic is given. The author draws a conclusion about the presence of scientific interest towards Mongolian linguistics and culture in Europe, which contributes to strengthening cultural identity of Mongolia. On the basis of continuity of research and the presence of an original scientific school of Mongolian studies in the Czech Republic, the author makes an assumption about the possibility of extending research of the issues of economy and economic geography of Mongolia, which will, undoubtedly, contribute to strengthening the relations between the countries.

Вдосконалення інструментарію механізму активізації трансферу технологій у формі лізингу

Abstract. Introduction. Modern directions of development of world economy stipulated new scientifically - technological paradigm within the framework of that formed productive - economic systems that are base on innovations. Development of home priority industries of economy must come true by a way them technological retooling due to introduction of innovative developments at all stages of productive process. In this connection perfection of methodical approaches becomes actual in relation to the processes of activation of transfer of technologies in form leasing that will allow to choose different scenarios scientifically - technological development of economy of the state. Purpose. The aim of this scientific research is perfection of tool of mechanism of activation of transfer in form leasing sent to development of priority industries of economy. Results. The diversity of different types of transferred technologies, areas of development of commercial and noncommercial forms and methods of technology transfer has been studied, which made it possible to systematize the approaches existing in international practice to the analysis and assessment of the effectiveness of technology transfer. The ranking of the countries of the world by the level of innovative development have been analyzed according to the estimates of the World Intellectual Property Organization. According to statistics presented in the Report of the World Intellectual Property Organization, the pandemic, having stopped the economic growth of most countries of the world, had a negative impact on innovative development in general. The costs of research and development have significantly decreased, the amount of venture capital has decreased, there was less activity in the field of patenting and the use of intellectual property and the transfer of technologies in their various forms have decreased. The toolkit of organizational and economic support for technology transfer in the form of leasing has been considered from the perspective of developing directions for improving methodological approaches to activate technology transfer. It has been proven that the purchase of new technologies abroad is the main way to modernize the domestic industry and is associated with the convenience of acquiring technologies and equipment that have shown their effectiveness in other markets. At the methodological level, it has been established that an innovative infrastructure is being formed in our country, where participants in the innovation process act as the main subjects, and trade in licenses and leasing is used as the main form of technology transfer. The article systematizes methods for assessing the effectiveness of technology transfer models in the form of leasing. Conclusions. The developed economic and mathematical models of the planning, accounting and control functions, as well as the dynamic model of their implementation, form the basis of the models of strategic and operational planning of the use of resources, as well as the analysis of the effectiveness of their use for the implementation of technology transfer. Theoretical and methodological approaches to information and analytical support of the assessing process of the effectiveness of technology transfer in the form of leasing have been further developed.

THE EXPERIENCE OF DIGITALIZATION PROCESS IN RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN IN THE CONTEXT OF BILATERAL COOPERATION

The article examines the global tendency of digitalization as a driving force for the development of the modern world economy. The introduction and development of advanced digital technologies in all spheres of public life in Kazakhstan is one of the main priority areas of state policy. The authors identified similarities and differences in digital transformation through comparative analysis by comprehending the bilateral experience of digitalization between Russia and Kazakhstan. For this purpose, an analysis of the results achieved, strategic programs and documents on the application and development of digital technologies between the two countries was carried out. Also, a review of the features of the formation of public opinion regarding the joint development of the digitalization sphere was carried out.

Economic Exogenous Shocks, Residents’ Welfare and Optimal Fiscal Expenditure Rules

How to use fiscal expenditure rules to deal with exogenous shocks, most of the existing studies start from the perspective of stabilizing economic fluctuations, pay insufficient attention to residents’ welfare, and mostly investigate the single fiscal expenditure rule of total amount, ignoring the cooperation between different types of fiscal expenditure. Based on the new Keynesian model (NK-DSGE), assuming that the economic operation is subject to three kinds of exogenous shocks of different nature, this paper analyzes and evaluates the optimal fiscal expenditure rules and their combination from the perspectives of stabilizing consumption fluctuations and ensuring residents’ welfare.Specifically, this study divides public expenditure into government consumption expenditure, government investment expenditure and transfer payment expenditure, and evaluates the welfare guarantee effect of the above expenditure under the smoothing rule, the output-oriented reverse adjustment rule, the debt-oriented reverse adjustment rule and the simultaneous output-oriented and debt-oriented reverse adjustment rule respectively.The specific conclusion is that: From the perspective of restraining consumption fluctuation, when production or investment is positively impacted, the smooth rule is the best choice; when labor preference is negatively impacted, the debt-oriented rule is the best choice. From the perspective of maximizing residents’ welfare, and based on the comprehensive evaluation of long-term welfare effect and short-term welfare effect, under the positive impact of technology on production, the optimal rule is that the smoothing rule is adopted for all three types of expenditure; under the negative impact of labor preference, the optimal rule is that consumption expenditure adopts output-oriented reverse adjustment, and investment expenditure and transfer payment expenditure adopt both output-oriented and debt-oriented reverse adjustment; under the positive impact of investment efficiency, the optimal rule is that consumption expenditure adopts output-oriented reverse adjustment, investment expenditure adopts both output-oriented and debt-oriented reverse adjustment, and transfer payment adopts debt-oriented reverse adjustment.Finally, this paper verifies that when consumption expenditure is biased towards the field of people’s livelihood and increases the substitution elasticity of public consumption and private consumption, the welfare level of residents can be significantly improved. In the post epidemic era, the uncertainty of world economic development has greatly increased. This study shows that, compared with the single fiscal expenditure rule of total amount, different types of fiscal expenditure are given different response rules according to the specific nature of exogenous shocks, so as to increase the flexibility and accuracy of policies, better deal with the uncertainty in the future, and ensure residents’ welfare to the greatest extent.