World Bank Development Research Articles

DYNAMIC MODELLING OF THE INFLUENCE OF DIASPORA CASH REMITTANCE ON MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN NIGERIA

<p>Remittance flows into low-income and fragile states represent a lifeline that supports households as well as provides much-needed tax revenue (IMF - Sayeh & Ralp Chami; 2021).<strong> Purpose</strong>: on the basis of this record, the study sought to examine the dynamic modelling of the influence of diaspora cash remittance as measured by Personal Remittances Received (PRR); Exchange Rate (EXCHR); and Outward Remittances Flows (ORF) on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria as measured by Unemployment Rate (UNEMPR) and Gross Domestic Product per capita growth (GDPpcgr) using quarterly time-series data sourced from World Bank and World Development Indicators for the periods 2010Q1-2020Q4.<strong> Technique/Approach</strong>: the study was disintegrated to apply Engle-Granger two-step method of error correction model (ECM) together with Granger Causality test to analyse the causal effect of Personal Remittances Received; Exchange Rate; Outward Remittances Flows on Unemployment Rate, as well as, utilize vector autoregressive (VAR) technique to investigate the dynamic influence of Personal Remittances Received; Exchange Rate and Outward Remittances Flows on gross domestic product per capita growth.<strong> Findings</strong>: the result of Granger Causality test upheld the hypothesis of PRR does not involve Granger causality of UNEMPR and the hypothesis that UNEMPR does not involve Granger causality of PRR. However, unidirectional causality runs from EXCHR to UNEMPR; as well as, from ORF to UNEMPR. The result of the error correction model (ECM) demonstrated that personal remittances received and exchange rate have insignificant and significant short-term and long-term effects on increasing the rate of unemployment. Whereas, outward remittances flow significantly minimized the rate of unemployment. More so, the results of the vector autoregressive (VAR) technique portrayed that the past realization of GDPpcgr was associated with a significant increase of 0.84 percent in GDPpcgr. Whilst, the past realization of Personal Remittances Received and outward remittances flows were related to an insignificant increase in GDPpcgr respectively; also, the past realization of exchange rate retarded the GDPpcgr. Furthermore, variance decomposition forecast of 4-period horizon reported that 100 percent of deviation in GDPpcgr is explicated by GDPpcgr in the short-term, indicating that personal remittances received, exchange rate, and outward remittances flows had no strong exogenous influence on predicting GDPpcgr in the future. Whereas, in the long-term forecasted error in GDPpcgr produced about 97.57 percent; while, Personal Remittances Received, exchange rate and outward remittances flow had a weak influence on predicting GDPpcgr in the future.<strong> Concluding Remark</strong>: the study concluded that it is an imperative for policy makers to design more policy measures that will encourage, facilitate a smooth and efficient inflow of cash remittance from abroad into the country so as to stabilize the economy.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL: </strong>E01; E20; E24<strong></strong></p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0965/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Renewable, Non-Renewable Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from West African Countries.

The study investigated the relationship between renewable, non-renewable energy consumption energy consumption and economic growth in West Africa countries using World Bank Development Indicator (WDI) data between 2010-2020. The study employed General Method of Moment (GMM) to estimate the relationship. The findings revealed that both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption have significant impact on the economic growth of West African countries within the period under sample. It was revealed that non-renewable energy exerts more influence on the economic growth as compared to renewable energy consumption. The study further revealed that trade openness exerts a positive influence on renewable energy consumption validating earlier literature that concludes that economies with more openness tends to enjoy more technology diffusion as compared to economies with less economic openness.

Stock market development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2020): an ARDL approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the short and long run causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa within the period 1990 and 2020.Design/methodology/approachUsing panel data from 1990–2020 obtained from the World Bank development indicators, the study makes use of the autoregressive distributed lag model and the Granger causality and cointegration to analyze the long and short run causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa.FindingsThe findings unveiled that stock market capitalization had a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long run and a negative insignificant effect in the short run within the period of 1990–2020 while stock market liquidity measured through total value of shares traded and turnover ratio had a negative and significant effect on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa within the period of 1990–2020. The Granger causality test showed an inconclusive result between stock market development and economic growth; implying that the authors cannot say if it is stock market development that causes economic growth or it is economic growth that causes stock market development within the period of 1990–2020.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that governments of sub-Saharan African countries should encourage stock market development by implementing favorable rules for companies listing on their stock market, promote stock market integration with world markets to diversify risk, increase public awareness on stock markets, increase investors' confidence level and finally, remove stock market impediments like high taxes, legal and regulatory barriers to its development.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by offering a whole new perspective on stock market development and economic growth since its conception in sub-Saharan Africa. Again, contrary to other papers, the study show how stock market development can contribute to the growth of sub-Saharan Africans’ economy.

Harnessing digital technologies for poverty reduction. Evidence for low-income and lower-middle income countries

This paper contributes to understanding the relationship between ICT deployment and poverty alleviation in developing countries. It assess the digital technologies contribution to poverty reduction, through different channels of impact, like education, labor market, income and ICT-trade related activities.Using the sample of 40 developing countries between 1990 and 2019, it relies on macro data extracted from the World Bank Development Indicators (2021) and the World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database (2020). Methodological framework combines time trend analysis and locally weighted polynomial smoother, logistic growth model, and panel regression modelling techniques. Our major findings suggest growing ICT deployment, school enrolments, and increases in material wealth are significant drivers of poverty eradication in developing economies. However, the impact of digitalization on poverty is neither direct nor immediate. Therefore, we claim that national and local authorities, together with civil society must consider ICT as a key element of their broad development strategies.

Gender inequalities in physical activity among adolescents from 64 Global South countries

PurposeThe aims of this study were to (a) describe gender inequalities in physical activity (PA) among adolescents from Global South countries, and (b) investigate the relationship between gender inequalities in PA and contextual factors, such as geographic region, human development index, gender inequality index, and unemployment rates. MethodsWe analyzed cross-sectional data from the Global School-Based Student Health Survey conducted in Global South countries between 2010 and 2020 among 13- to 17-year-old adolescents. Country-context variables were retrieved from secondary data sources (World Health Organization, World Bank, and Human Development Reports). PA was assessed by a self-administered questionnaire querying the number of days in the past week in which participants were physically active for a total of at least 60 min. PA absolute gender inequalities were evaluated by the differences in the prevalence between boys and girls, 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were estimated using the bootstrap method. Relative inequalities were obtained through Poisson regression. Meta-analyses with random effects were used to calculate pooled estimates of absolute and relative inequalities. ResultsBased on 64 Global South countries/surveys, the prevalence of PA was 6.7 percentage points (p.p.) higher in boys than in girls, ranging from 0.5 p.p. in Afghanistan to 15.6 p.p. in Laos (I2= 85.1%). The pooled ratio for all countries showed that boys presented a PA prevalence 1.58 times higher than girls (95%CI: 1.47–1.70) on average. The highest absolute and relative inequalities were observed in high income countries. Countries with higher Human Development Index rankings and lower Gender Inequality Index rankings also presented greater gender differences. ConclusionGiven that girls are overall less active than boys across the globe, the findings of this study reinforce that macro- and micro-level changes should be actively sought if we aim to increase population levels of PA in adolescents and promote equity in PA.

Empirical Cost of Electricity Outage on Labour and Capital Productivity in Nigeria

This study empirically examined the impact of electricity power outages on Nigeria’s capital and labour productivity. The emphasis is on how frequent electricity outage reduces labour and capital effectiveness and other factors of production. To achieve the above objective, annual time series data on Total Factor Productivity - a proxy for Nigeria’s factors productivity, Power Outage (electric power transmission and distribution losses as % of output), and other controlled variables were used to estimate the relationship and all data were from World Bank Development Indicators (WDI). The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FOLS) technique was adopted for analysis. The empirical results showed a negative relationship between power outages and factor productivity. The result also reveals that electricity pricing has a significant negative impact on the factor productivity while both electricity generation and population have a significant positive impact on Nigeria’s total factor productivity. The implication is that the substitution effect between labour and capital is positive, meaning that Nigeria exhibits a labour-intensive production function. In conclusion, the study is of the opinion that power outage and electricity pricing negatively impact factors productivity while electricity generation and population have a positive relationship with factors productivity in Nigeria.

Does external debt as a new determinants of fiscal policy influence sustainable economic growth: implications after COVID-19

External debt correlation and the sustainable economic development pathway within the South Asian sub-region is analysed in this research paper. The longitudinal root-analysis, the pooled ordinary least square, quantile estimation, and output estimation were utilized to evaluate the data obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators for the period of 2000–2018. We discovered that total external debt and external debt services affect 39% plus 31%, respectively, after the robust regression analysis was carried out. Besides that, the findings demonstrate direct expansionary impacts of fiscal policy crosswise in developing economies within the study timeframe. Remarkably, the advancements in state establishments encourage the “gathering impact” of fiscal policy implementation. The findings depict that the entire circumstances set a stiffer restraint on public expenditure, indicating a self-losing fiscal austerity situation which entails the impact of the company’s liabilities. Inversely, the unrestrained countercyclical policy bars the knock-on impact of external problems, resulting in an improved economic system activity performance as well as decreasing the probability of economic predicaments after COVID-19.

A critical appraisal of the World Bank's structural adjustment programs and poverty reduction strategy papers in Africa

The official aims of the World Bank development programs - SAPs and PRSPs - in Africa and other developing countries are to promote local productivities, advance economic choices, improve living standards, maximise economic competencies, reduce government expenditures, and realise economic development. Based on these promising development policies, many African countries adopted those programs in the early 1980s as a panacea to their worst political and economic problems. Accordingly, this study critically examines the effectiveness of the World Bank's development programs - SAPs and PRSPs - in contemporary Africa. Moreover, the study rationally appraises the multi-dimensional consequences of SAPs and PRSPs in Africa. To this end, the study finds that these programs of the World Bank have brought massive socio-political and economic crises to contemporary Africa. Hence, rethinking the World Bank's development programs should be the prior duty of African states to escape from the existing chaos in almost every sector.

Effect of Infrastructural Development on Kenya’s Manufacturing Exports to EAC Region

Manufacturing industries have played a significant role in boosting economic wellbeing in the world through accelerating and maintaining greater productivity growth, boosting employment options for semi-skilled workers, and increasing country competitiveness through exports. Kenya, like many other developing nations, is working to build a strong manufacturing industry. Agriculture and services have been the primary drivers of growth in the country. Historically, the manufacturing sector's contribution to Kenya's economy has remained constant at 10% of GDP, and in 2021 it was around 8.4 percent. As a result, the country has seen an early deindustrialization, as evidenced by the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP, which was just 8.4% in 2021 and 9.2% in 2016. Boosting manufacturing sector results remains a key priority for Kenya, as evidenced by the slew of planned interventions for the industry that have been created over the years. The government has established Vision 2030, the Kenya Industrial Transformation Programme (KITP), and, most recently, the Big 4 Agenda to modernize the industrial sector. The major goal of this research was to see how infrastructure development (ID) affected Kenya's manufactured exports to the East African Community (EAC). The specific goals were to determine the impact of infrastructure development on Kenya's manufacturing exports to the EAC region. Gravity model was used as the theoretical framework for the study, which is based on the theory of international trade and employs a correlation research design that is ideal for dynamic panel data models. Each country's data for the study variables was obtained from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Kenya Nation Bureau of Statistics, World Bank development and African Development Bank for six EAC members for the period 2007–2021. Unit root test, Im-Pesaran and Shin, Levin-Li-Chu tests were used in the study. The Im-Pesaran unit root test results at Levels indicated that all the variables except inflation had unit root at levels as indicated by the p-values>0.05, except inflation which had a p-value of 0.0006

Foreign Direct Investment and Employment Generation in Nigeria

FDI as a growth stimulating factor is seen as the largest source of external financing to developing countries and helps to ease capital constraints and contributes to output and employment generation. This paper examined the impact of foreign direct investment on employment generation in Nigeria within the period 1991 to 2021. The variables used in the study include employment rate, foreign direct investment, trade openness and real exchange rate. The paper used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for its regression analysis. The data for the analysis was sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and world bank development indicator. The study finds that foreign direct investment and Trade openness have a positive impact on employment generation in Nigeria. Real exchange rate has a negative impact on employment generation in Nigeria. The paper finds that a short run relationship exists between foreign direct investment, real exchange rate, trade openness and employment generation in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the paper recommends that Government should make effort to attract more Foreign Direct Investment into the country to create more employment opportunities through Multi-National Corporations. The Government should encourage trade openness in order to enhance more Foreign Direct Investment in the country as it will increase the standard of living of the citizens by the provision of highly paid employment.

COMMERCIAL BANK FINANCING AND DEVELOPMENT OF CROP PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

This study evaluates both short-run and long-run impacts of credit financing facilities provided by commercial banks on crop production development in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. The study adopts ex post-facto research design and obtains data on the study variables from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Development Indicators. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach was employed as an estimation technique. The outcome of the analysis produces significant negative effect of commercial banks loans and advances on crop production development in the short run. In the long run, however, commercial banks loans and advances and labour employment in agriculture sector exert significant positive impact on crop production development in Nigeria. The researchers conclude that commercial banks credit financing significantly increase contribution of agriculture to Nigeria gross domestic product in the long-run while it reduces crop productivity in the short-run.

An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method for Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the impact of tourism receipts on economic growth in Nigeria between 1992 and 2017. The data used were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank Development Indicators. The study employed the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag technique to analyse the data. In other to test for the stationarity of the time series data used, the Philip Perron unit root test was employed and it was confirmed that only international tourist arrivals was stationary at level while tourism receipts, tourism investment, gross domestic product growth rate, receipts for passenger transport items as well as receipts for passenger travel items were all stationary at first difference. Furthermore, the bound test results showed the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship among economic growth, tourism receipts, tourism investment, international tourist arrivals, receipts for passenger transport items and receipts for passenger travel items. In addition, the estimated long run coefficient of the ARDL showed that tourism receipt, tourism investment, exchange rate and gross capital formation had a positive and significant impact on economic growth. It was also discovered that tourists’ arrivals and receipts for passengers travel items inversely related with economic growth. The study concluded that tourism receipts had significantly influenced economic growth in Nigeria. Consequently, government should urgently put in place policies that could increase the level of tourism receipts in the country. Also, adequate security and basic infrastructural facilities should be provided for both domestic and foreign tourists as this would ensure the influx of international tourists.

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Countries: Analysis of Economic Growth, Inflation, and Political Stability for the Period 2002-2018

AbstractPurpose – This research investigates the factors of foreign investment inflows (PMA) that are encouraged in the member countries of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council).Methodology - The sample selection for observations was based on six countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The data for this study were obtained from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) database for the period 2002-2018. This study adopts panel regression analysis and uses the Random Effect Model.Findings - This research reveals that GDP and Inflation are positive and play a significant role in driving FDI inflows in GCC countries. Meanwhile, Political Stability (PSAV) does not have a substantial impact on FDI inflows in the GCC countries. This study shows that the GCC countries must provide a conducive investment environment that is represented by higher GDP growth and is involved in various international trade agreements as these factors have a higher likelihood of impacting inflows FDI. Other than that, rules describing investment priorities among members should be ratified immediately to reduce the percentage of FDI inflows out of GCC countries. Thus, this research provides significant insights for policymakers for the GCC countries to attract FDI inflows into the country.Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Gulf Cooperation Council Panel Regression.

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence and death for 29 cancer groups in 2019 and trends analysis of the global cancer burden, 1990\u20132019

Background and aimsCancer will soon become the leading cause of death in every country in the twenty-first century. This study aimed to analyze the mortality and morbidity of 29 types of cancer in 204 countries or regions from 1990 to 2019 to guide global cancer prevention and control.MethodsDetailed information for 29 cancer groups was collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of the 29 cancer groups were calculated based on sex, age, region, and country. In addition, separate analyses were performed for major cancer types.ResultsIn 2019, more than 10 million people died from cancer, which was approximately twice the number in 1990. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers collectively showed the highest death rate, and the ASDR of pancreatic cancer increased by 24%, which was cancer with the highest case fatality rate (CFR). The global cancer ASIR showed an increasing trend, with testicular cancer, thyroid cancer, and malignant skin melanoma showing a significant increase. The ASDR and ASIR of cancer in males were about 1.5 times higher than that in females. Individuals over 50 years had the highest risk of developing cancer, with incidences and deaths in this age group accounting for more than 85% of cancers in all age groups. Asia has the heaviest cancer burden due to its high population density, with esophageal cancer in this region accounting for 53% of the total fatalities related to this type of cancer in the world. In addition, the mortality and morbidity of most cancers increased with the increase in the development or socio-demographic index (SDI) in the SDI regions based on the World Bank's Human Development Index (HDI), with cancer characteristics varying in the different countries globally.ConclusionsThe global cancer burden continues to increase, with substantial mortality and morbidity differences among the different regions, ages, countries, gender, and cancer types. Effective and locally tailored cancer prevention and control measures are essential in reducing the global cancer burden in the future.

Public debt and economic growth: What we know today about the Nigerian economy tomorrow

With the rising trend in Nigeria’s debt profile, this paper investigated public debt and its potential consequence on economic growth through its impact on investment. The study cut across 1981 to 2019 with data from World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The Phillips-Perron unit root tested for stationarity, while the study estimated the model by adopting the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The long-run estimated results report that external debt and investment have a strong positive link with economic growth, while domestic debt and external debt service are inversely related to growth. In ascertaining the threshold level of investment, the estimated result suggests that investment of domestic debt should not fall below 25.41% to avoid an economic downturn. However, investing more than 24.55% of external debt will leave the economy in shambles. Further findings suggest that increased investment of domestic debt and external loans in Nigeria is a blessing and curse, respectively. Therefore, it is recommended that external debt investment be closely monitored to ensure optimal use so that such debts would not be diverted to personal gain.

Non-Oil Export and Exchange Rate Nexus in Nigeria: Another Empirical Verification

This study examined the nexus between Exchange Rate and Non-Oil Export in Nigeria using time series data from 1985 to 2018. Secondary data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and World Bank Development Indicators (WDI). The study adopted Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and it was fitted with Seven variables; namely, Non-oil Export (NOE), Exchange Rate (EXR), Credit to Private Sector (CPS), Trade Openness (OPN), Inflation (INF), Interest Rate (INT) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The results showed that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on non-oil export in Nigeria. Therefore, the study recommended that the Government should encourage international trade to boost non-oil export and increase foreign exchange earnings. Also, there is a need for the government to improve the financial institutions to make investment funds available. Lastly, there is a need to revisit the export-oriented policy to ensure that the non-oil sector is well catered for.

Sustainable Malaria Control Policy and Infant Mortality in an Agrarian Economy: Evidence from Nigeria

Sustainable implementation of policy to control malaria is sine qua non to reduce the infant mortality rate especially in agrarian economies like Nigeria where malaria is common. This study examined the relationship between infant mortality rate and government expenditure on malaria (GEM) (proxy for health policy as explanatory variable), per capita income, infrastructure development index (IDI), government expenditure on education and health (as control variables) using data from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the World Bank and African Development Bank database. The unit root test conducted showed that all the variables were not stationary at first difference. The co-integration test established a long run equilibrium relationship between the variables which suggested the use of the Error Correction Model. The analysis of the estimated coefficients in the model showed that IDI and GEM significantly reduce infant mortality rate at P<0.05. Improvement in government funding to control malaria and efforts to develop infrastructure especially in the rural agrarian communities is recommended.

Expanding Conflicts of Interest in Public Health Research

Expanding Conflicts of Interest in Public Health Research

EFFECT OF EXTERNAL DEBT LIABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effect of external debt liability on economic growth in Kenya.
 Materials and Methods: The descriptive research design was adopted. The target population was three institutions: The National Treasury, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank. The study used time series data. The designated sample for this study covered a period of 43 years (1977–2019). Secondary data was used in this study. The data collected was on GDP of Kenya between 1977 and 2019, External public debt in terms of US dollars from 1977 to 2019, External private debt from 1977 and 2019 and external debt service payments from 1977 to 2019, all in US dollars. A data collection sheet was used to collect the data on the four variables. World Bank and World Development Indicator economic Meta data and published data by Central Bank of Kenya and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics were the source of data for this study. The study used Eviews version 10 for analyzing and presenting study findings. The study employed multivariate time series and panel data regression analysis. The model employed GDP as a measure of economic growth and external public debt, external private debt, and external debt service payment as its main independent variables.
 Results: The study found out that only the external private debt and the debt service payment showed bilateral causal relationship. External public debt and external private debt had a positive and significant effect on the GDP, indicating that external debt promotes economic growth in Kenya. The external debt service payment showed a negative and a significant effect on the GDP as well. The model explained 97% variability of the GDP as explained by the three independent variables combined. The 3% is attributed to other factors, not included in this study.
 Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends a more robust multivariate model to be employed to include more macro-economic variables to explain economic growth. A decade-to-decade comparison can also be done to compare the effects of the external debt on Kenyan economic growth in different time intervals. Fiscal and monetary policies should be reviewed to encourage more domestic and foreign investments and discourage external borrowing to fund budget deficits or projects with low or no returns.

Sectoral analysis of foreign direct investment and growth in Nigeria

The study conducted a sectoral analysis of the contribution of foreign direct investment on Nigeria economy between 1980-2019. Time series data from Central Bank of Nigeria and World Bank Development Indicators was used to estimate the relationship using Auto Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). It was revealed that foreign direct investment not only exert a direct positive effect on the aggregate growth rate of Nigeria economy but also exert a positive indirect effect through labour. It was also discovered that agriculture sector is the only sector that does not enjoy significant contribution of foreign direct investment in Nigeria while petroleum and Gas experience the greatest growth attributable to foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The study contributed to literature by not only examining the indirect effect of foreign direct investment on Nigeria aggregate growth rate through labour but also the effect of foreign direct investment on the sector-by-sector growth rate.