World Bank Development Indicators Research Articles

Impact of China’s Foreign Direct Investment on The Rwandan Economic Growth

The purpose of this study was to investigate the exact impact in quantitative terms of China’s FDI on the Economic development of the African continent with reference to Rwanda. The target population comprised 10 staff members of National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, Rwanda Development Board, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, United Nations (UN) Statistics, and World Bank's World Development Indicators. The sample size was 10 key informants. The researcher used questionnaire, interview guide and desk review as data analysis tools. The SPSS was used to analyze data into descriptive and inferential statistics. Results discover that in Rwanda a foreign direct investment depends on the consumer prices index. The study found out that 54.3% agreed with the consumer prices index, foreign direct investment is influenced by owner-occupiers' housing costs as it was evidenced by 62.8%, it was seen the retail prices index, where 56.7% agreed. Correlation analysis between the Owner-occupiers' housing costs and economic growth show a significant correlation between owner-occupiers' housing costs and job creation (r=.206; p-value=.000). This was statistically correlated given the p value was <0.005 proposing that increase in owner-occupiers' housing costs has led to a job creation in Rwanda. The study demonstrated that 64.6% agreed that the nominal effective exchange influence foreign direct investment, 45.1% strongly agreed with the real effective exchange rate. Correlation results felt that choice of price or cost felt that it is significantly correlated with a growth domestic product (r=0.123*; p value=0.034). The study sought to evaluate the effect of Balance of Trade on the economic growth of Rwanda. The study evidenced that participants agreed that the financial account statements by 55.5% while the study found that capital account is affecting foreign direct investment. It was shown by 53.0%. Results show a significant correlation between capital account and poverty reduction (r=0.105, p-value=0.071). The correlations were statistically significant given that the p value was < 0.05 proposing that an increase in capital account was insignificant with the economic growth and vice versa. The study concludes that inflation rate, exchange rate and balance of trade and thus FDI, have a significance effect on the economic growth in Rwanda. The study recommends that foreign direct investment strategies could be adopted in everyday activities. It would be appropriate to consider most favored nation and trade liberalization and investment as a criteria of exporting companies for improving economic growth. Future research can be conducted using longitudinal research to identify factors which contribute to economic growth. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Rwanda.

Impact of China’s Foreign Direct Investment on The Rwandan Economic Growth

The purpose of this study was to investigate the exact impact in quantitative terms of China’s FDI on the Economic development of the African continent with reference to Rwanda. The target population comprised 10 staff members of National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, Rwanda Development Board, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, United Nations (UN) Statistics, and World Bank's World Development Indicators. The sample size was 10 key informants. The researcher used questionnaire, interview guide and desk review as data analysis tools. The SPSS was used to analyze data into descriptive and inferential statistics. Results discover that in Rwanda a foreign direct investment depends on the consumer prices index. The study found out that 54.3% agreed with the consumer prices index, foreign direct investment is influenced by owner-occupiers' housing costs as it was evidenced by 62.8%, it was seen the retail prices index, where 56.7% agreed. Correlation analysis between the Owner-occupiers' housing costs and economic growth show a significant correlation between owner-occupiers' housing costs and job creation (r=.206; p-value=.000). This was statistically correlated given the p value was <0.005 proposing that increase in owner-occupiers' housing costs has led to a job creation in Rwanda. The study demonstrated that 64.6% agreed that the nominal effective exchange influence foreign direct investment, 45.1% strongly agreed with the real effective exchange rate. Correlation results felt that choice of price or cost felt that it is significantly correlated with a growth domestic product (r=0.123*; p value=0.034). The study sought to evaluate the effect of Balance of Trade on the economic growth of Rwanda. The study evidenced that participants agreed that the financial account statements by 55.5% while the study found that capital account is affecting foreign direct investment. It was shown by 53.0%. Results show a significant correlation between capital account and poverty reduction (r=0.105, p-value=0.071). The correlations were statistically significant given that the p value was < 0.05 proposing that an increase in capital account was insignificant with the economic growth and vice versa. The study concludes that inflation rate, exchange rate and balance of trade and thus FDI, have a significance effect on the economic growth in Rwanda. The study recommends that foreign direct investment strategies could be adopted in everyday activities. It would be appropriate to consider most favored nation and trade liberalization and investment as a criteria of exporting companies for improving economic growth. Future research can be conducted using longitudinal research to identify factors which contribute to economic growth. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Rwanda

Examining the Perspectives of Gender Development and Inequality: A Tale of Selected Asian Economies

The rising concern about gender inequality among the economies in South, South-East, and Eastern Asia motivates us to study the context of gender development in terms of bridging gender disparity. To show the impact, the data has been extracted from various authentic sources- Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), World Bank Development Indicators database, Sustainable Development Index, The Observatory of Economic Complexity and Human Development Reports of the 24 South, South-East, and East Asian economies from period 2000–2020. This research was carried out empirically using various techniques such as the Ordinary Least Squared Method (OLS), Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM), and Generalised Quantile Regression. The findings of the research show a significant impact of FDI and Economic Complexity in the reduction of gender inequality. Along with this, access to justice and electoral democracy will be providing more representation to women by reducing the gender gaps. Several policy implications have been proposed following the results of the study.

Impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) countries

PurposeThis paper aims to assess the impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). This paper evaluates the dynamic relationship between digital financial innovation measures and financial system development using time series data from COMESA countries for the period 1997–2019.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was adopted and the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) of the model were estimated to evaluate the short- and long-run impact. In addition, the dynamic generalized method of moments (DGMM) was adopted for a robustness check. The Hausman test results show PMG to be the most consistent and efficient estimator, while the coefficient of lagged dependent variable of different GMM is less than the fixed effect coefficient, and, as such, suggests system GMM is the most suitable estimator. Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development Indicator (WDI, 2020), World Governance Indicator (WGI, 2020) and World Bank Global Financial Development Database (GFD, 2020).FindingsThe result shows that digital financial innovation significantly impacts financial system development in the long run. As such, the evidence revealed that automated teller machines (ATMs), point of sale (POS), mobile payments (MP) and mobile banking are significant and contribute positively to financial system development in the long run, while mobile money (MM) and Internet banking (INB) are insignificant but exhibit positive and inverse relationship with financial development respectively. Further investigation revealed that institutional quality and a stable macroeconomic environment including their interactive term are significantly imperative in predicting financial system development in the COMESA region.Practical implicationsResearchers recommend a cohesive and conscious policy that would checkmate the divergence in the short run and suggest a common regional innovative financial strategy that could be pursued to incentivize technology transfer needed to promote financial system development in the long run. More so, plausible product and process innovations may be adapted to complement innovative institutions in the different components of the COMESA financial system.Social implicationsDigital financial innovation services if well managed increase the inherent benefits in financial system development.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents new background information on digital financial innovation that may stimulate the development of the financial system, particularly in the COMESA region. It also exposes the relevance of digital financial innovation, institutional quality and stable macroeconomic environment as well as their interactive effect on COMESA financial system development.

Energy policy simulation in times of crisis: Revisiting the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy production on environmental quality in Germany

In this paper, we examine for the first time in the literature the implications of energy policy alternatives for Germany considering the aftermath of coronavirus as well as Electricity and Gas energy supply shortages. Whilst several policy options are open to the government, the choice of investment in renewable energy generation versus disinvestment in non-renewable energy such as coal energy generation provides divergent impacts in the long term. We utilize data from British Petroleum and the World Bank Development Indicator database for Germany covering 1981 to 2020 to explore a Carbon function by applying a battery of Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), dynamic ARDL and Kernel-Based Regularized Least squares approaches. The particular policy tested is the pledge by Germany to decrease emissions by ∼100% in 2050, and this was integrated through the estimation of dynamic ARDL estimation. The simulation result shows that a ＋61% shock in renewable energy production decreases carbon emissions unlike coal energy production which increases carbon emissions in the beginning but the carbon emissions decrease thereafter. The findings highlight the inevitability of cutting down on coal production, and recommends energy investment alternatives. Hence, Germany’s energy policy should contemplate more thoroughly on these factors.

Foreign Assistance, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990 – 2021

This study adopts the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator to analyse the impact of institutional quality and foreign assistance on economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using time series data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and World Bank Governance Indicators (WGI) for the period 1990 to 2021. The study went a step further to determine whether there is a significant interactive development effect of foreign assistance and institutional quality in sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that foreign assistance has a positive conditional marginal effect on per-capita GDP, institutional quality has a positive conditional marginal impact on per-capita GDP and their interaction is also positive. The results are all statistically significant at 10% level of significance. Thus, foreign assistance and good quality institutions improves economic growth. This does not imply that; sub-Saharan African region should heavily rely on foreign assistance, without putting in place specific developmental efforts. Thus, it is opined that policymakers should regulate the allocation of foreign assistance and improve the quality of institutions. In doing so, the production capacity of the region would increase and the region would attract huge amount of foreign direct investment (FDI). Consequently, there would be a distinction between the amount of foreign assistance needed to lessen poverty and the levels of foreign assistance required to achieve economic growth. Keywords: Foreign Assistance; economic growth; AMG Estimator, CCEMG Estimator, Institutional Quality and Sub-Saharan Africa DOI: 10.7176/JESD/14-8-07 Publication date: April 30 th 2023

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Key Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2021)

This study adopts the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze the relationship between key macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria, Using time series data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI), for the period 1980 to 2021. The key macroeconomic variables analyzed are inflation, exchange rate and money supply. The result gives an average high R2 of 0.7000 which connotes that the overall model is a good fit. The result of the VAR analysis at lag two indicates that the variables are dynamically interacted. Starting with the growth (GDP) equation, a 1% increase in the previous year values of exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and money supply lead to a 0.3% increase, 33% increase, 3% increase, and 26% increase in current GDP respectively. Here, GDP and money are positively related. The money supply shows that a 1% increase in the previous year values of exchange rate, GDP, inflation and money supply lead to a zero per cent decrease, 8% decrease, 7% decrease and 91% increase in current money supply. The result is consistent with monetary policy given that the relationship between money supply and inflation. The equation of inflation shows that a 1% increase in the previous year values of exchange rate, GDP, inflation and money supply lead to 9% decrease, 33% decrease, 68% increase and 15% increase in the current level of inflation. The consequences of a growing inflation and high exchange rate phenomenon are so damning that Nigeria cannot afford them. Such implications are glaring in the economy of Nigeria where many negative developments were traceable to the non-availability or insufficiency of foreign exchange for businesses especially small and medium enterprises (SME’s) with a frequent rise in general price level. Therefore, the need to aptly address this ugly development by the monetary and fiscal authority cannot be overemphasized. Keywords: Money supply; economic growth; VAR model, Inflation and exchange rate. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/14-8-06 Publication date: April 30 th 2023

Do Economic Depressions Contribute to CO2 Emissions? An ARDL Bound Approach

Total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are undoubtedly emitted to the environment, humans, ecosystems, and global economic growth. However, less research has examined the effect of economic depression on carbon dioxide emission (CO2), especially in Malaysia. Thus, this study intents to examine the impact of the macroeconomic problems, namely unemployment (UNEMP) and the growing number of people: population (POP), on the CO2 emissions in Malaysia. The study analyzes the data for 28 years, covering the period of 1991–2019, employing a bound ARDL model as an estimation method. The time series data were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators database. The finding from the study shows that CO2 emissions, POP, and UNEMP have a long-term cointegration. Under this situation, all variables indicated; UNEMP and POP lead to environmental degradation in Malaysia in the long run. The impact of both UNEMP and POP on CO2 emissions is positive. Moreover, it is also found that the damage of economic depression will take only around one year and a month on CO2 emissions. Thus, based on this novel finding, a comprehensive set of economic policies is required to ensure our economy is in good condition and hence suggested for maintaining the environmental quality.

Impact of Entrepreneurship and International Trade on Economic Growth and Development in Nigeria

This study empirically investigates the impact of entrepreneurship and international trade on economic growth and development in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022. Domestic credit to private sector (DCPS), Exchange rate (EXR), Self-employment (SEEM), Total exports ((TEX), Total imports (TIM) and inflation rate (INFR)were used as dimensions of the independent variable while Real gross domestic product (RGDP) as the dependent variable. Annual time series data were obtained from secondary sources including the CBN annual statistical bulletin, World Bank development indicators. The Eview9 Statistical Software was employed to analyze the data empirically. The Unit root test shows that real gross domestic product, domestic credit to private sector, exchange rate, self-employment, total exports and total imports are all stationary after first difference I(1) while inflation rate was stationary at level I(0). The data were analyzed using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The results of the ARDL estimates indicate that in the long run self-employment and total exports coefficients were positively signed and statistically significant which means that increase in self-employment and total exports in Nigeria will increase real gross domestic product (Economic growth) while total imports turned up with a negative sign and also statistically significant. It portends that total import has a negative impact on economic growth and development in Nigeria in the long run. The study recommends amongst others that government should promote entrepreneurship by providing credit and grants to encourage self-employment. Government should also encourage import substitution, promote exportation of locally made goods as this has positive impact on economic growth and development in Nigeria.

The Impact of Oil and Gas Extraction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Ghana

The topic of how oil and gas extraction impact on economic development of nations is well researched, especially African oil-producing countries. Literature has revealed that countries endowed with natural resources tend not to grow in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to their counterparts with limited or no such natural resources. This phenomenon has been characterized as the paradox of plenty. The study sought to evaluate the economic impact of oil and gas extraction in Ghana. The study utilized the quantitative research approach with secondary data from World Bank Development Indicators, 2019. Johansen Co-integration Approach was also used to evaluate the extent of causality between oil production (revenues) and the various economic variables. The Johansen Co-integration test revealed that oil revenue exerts a significant effect on Ghana’s GDP (4% higher than the average GDP before the production of oil and gas). Meanwhile, the average agriculture value-added and service value-added of Ghana for the period after the production of oil is lower than the average agriculture value-added and service value-added for the period before the production of oil in commercial quantities. The study used Ghana as a case study which somehow limits its findings. Future studies may use a panel model to do a cross-country analysis of the impact of oil and gas production on the various sectors of the respective countries. Government should formulate and expand policies (such as planting for food and jobs, and agricultural mechanization) that will help grow the agricultural and service sectors of the economy using oil revenues. The study also recommends that the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) should closely monitor and collaborate with the petroleum revenue management institutions to ensure that oil revenues allocated to the government priority sectors, especially agriculture and service, are fully implemented. This study differs from prior studies (novel) because it aimed to determine the impact of oil and gas extraction on agricultural, industrial, and service sectors before and after oil and gas production.
 
 Received: 6 December 2022 / Accepted: 10 February 2023 / Published: 5 March 2023

A Gender Perspective on Mexico's Economic Growth

Among the Latin American countries, the Mexican economy has shown since the late 1990's one of the lowest rates of economic growth. This is perplexing, because of the persistency of the stagnation tendencies, and because of the rapid growth shown by its exports, especially to the US, that reached $370 billion in 2018. The poor economic performance has had adverse consequences in terms of unemployment, emigration, social conflict, and especially in terms of the losses of female and male youth employment. This paper seeks to explain the causes of Mexico's economic stagnation. The methodology consists of the estimation of cointegration equations that express per capita economic growth as a function of the growth of labor productivity, plus the growth of the female and male employment to population ratios. Additional equations were estimated to identify the variables that explain the growth of productivity and of employment ratios and to estimate the role of deindustrialization in economic stagnation. An analysis was made of the role of female employment on the mobilization of domestic savings, on the determination of the deficit in the trade account, and on the constraint exerted by the balance of payments on growth. The source of data was the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The results indicated that female employment is an important determinant of external solvency and contributes to overcoming the balance of payments constrain on economic growth. Another salient result is the negative impact of youth unemployment on labor productivity and the negative impact of the percentage of young women that neither study nor work on economic growth. The policy implications are related to the importance of promoting male and female employment with a view towards accelerating economic growth, and the need to establish measures to facilitate women's entry into the labor market. This would require the establishment of national networks of childcare centers, the expansion of early childhood education, improving the quality of education, and increasing wages. As well, policies must be implemented to promote the reindustrialization and reagriculturalization of the Mexican economy to obtain national self-sufficiency and security and impart dynamism to economic growth.

FINANCIAL LIBRALISATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF NIGERIA [1970 – 2020

The theorists of financial liberalization believed that the removal of government control in the operation of the financial system will lead to the development of the system which thus translates to the economic growth of a given economy. However, over the past three decades that the policy was implemented in Nigeria, the financial sector still cannot mobilize the required funds for public and private investment; hence the economy still remained grossly undeveloped. In view of this therefore, this study was designed to examine the effectiveness of financial liberalization in economic growth of Nigeria from 1970 to 2020. The required data for the study were sourced from various sources including Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and Annual Reports, and the World Bank Development Indicators among others. To eliminate the problem of spurious regression in the study, the technique of Phillips-Perron unit root test was employed. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship in the exogenous series was tested with the ARDL Bounds Test. More so, the Diagnostics tests of Jarque-Bera, Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM and Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey were also employed to test normal distribution, autocorrelation and Heteroskedasticity in the data, while Wilcoxon Test Statistic investigated the change in the pre and post deregulation periods. The findings revealed that official exchange rate and one period lag of real interest rate are positively and significantly related to the economic growth, while real interest rate without lag has negative and significant relationship on the economic growth of Nigeria. It was further revealed that credit to private sector and inflation rate have negative coefficients. Lastly, the study showed a significant change in gross domestic product per capita and official exchange rate in the pre- and post-liberalization peiods. We therefore recommend that a holistic reform that will strengthen the entire Nigerian financial system should be carried out immediately, in addition to creating enabling macroeconomic environment that will make private investment to thrive.

Socio-economic inclusion and sustainable economic growth: Empirical analysis of Nigeria and South Africa

In Africa, socio-economic inclusion is often predicated on the degree of access to finance that individuals have to consummate economic activities. This study is centered on this interlink with a focus on Nigeria and South Africa. From the 17 years of data (2004–2020) sourced from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial statistics, and the World Bank Development Indicator, the study attempted to empirically validate the existence or absence of a long-run significance of the variables used. Result confirmed that proximity to bank branches and access to credit by the private sector are vital ingredients of sustainable economic growth in both countries, while automated teller machine does not. Thus, this concluding evidence provides an avenue for expansionary policy drive for concerned authorities.

Do Budgeting Practices Affect Saving Behavior among Smallscale Enterpreneurs in Kenya? Evidence from Kisumu Central Constitency

World Bank Development Indicators' most recent data reveals that the nation's Gross Domestic Savings as a proportion of gross domestic product(GDP) was 11.09 percent in 2017, 11.64 percent in 2018, 11.25 percent in 2019, and 12.83 percent in 2020. This shows that the country’s domestic savings is increasing but relatively low. As a result of this, the country presents a significant development challenge. Individuals need to learn the basic knowledge of financial areas so that people may make knowledgeable financial decisions about how to earn, spend, save, manage, and invest their money. The purpose of this study was to answer if budgeting practices affect saving behavior among small-scale entrepreneurs in Kenya. The study's particular objectives were to; establish the influence of monitoring spending, financial planning, and tracking spending patterns on saving behavior among small entrepreneurs. The study was guided by Life Cycle Theory and Financial Literacy Theory. A correlational research design was employed in the study. The target population comprised 914 registered small entrepreneurs in Kisumu town central constituency who have been in business for at least 2 years. The study adopted the Yamane sampling technique and obtained 278 respondents. Open-ended and closed-ended structured questionnaires were employed to gather primary data. To test the reliability of the questionnaire, the study piloted 28 respondents who were excluded from the final study. The study then used Cronbach’s Alpha to test reliability. The results showed that budgeting practices (α=0.828) and saving behavior (α=0.870) all had a strong alpha value of above 0.7 which indicates that the instrument is reliable. The study findings revealed that; monitoring spending was significant (β= .376; p=.000˂ 0.05) that is an increase of 1 unit in monitoring spending causes an increase of .376 units in saving behavior, financial planning was significant (β= .333, p=.000˂0.05) that is an increase of 1 unit in financial planning causes an increase of .333 units in saving behavior and tracking spending pattern was also significant (β= .179, p= .000˂0.05) that is an increase of 1 unit in monitoring spending terms causes an increase of .179 units in saving behavior. There was a strong positive and significant association between budgeting and saving behavior thus rejecting the null hypothesis. The study concludes that budgeting practices improve the saving behavior of small entrepreneurs in Kenya and recommends that small-scale entrepreneurs should practice all aspects of budgeting practices which includes monitoring spending, financial planning, and tracking spending patterns. This will enable them to compare what they have spent concerning what they had planned thereby helping them improve their saving behavior.

Projecting wheat demand in China and India for 2030 and 2050: Implications for food security.

The combined populations of China and India were 2.78 billion in 2020, representing 36% of the world population (7.75 billion). Wheat is the second most important staple grain in both China and India. In 2019, the aggregate wheat consumption in China was 96.4 million ton and in India it was 82.5 million ton, together it was more than 35% of the world's wheat that year. In China, in 2050, the projected population will be 1294-1515 million, and in India, it is projected to be 14.89-1793 million, under the low and high-fertility rate assumptions. A question arises as to, what will be aggregate demand for wheat in China and India in 2030 and 2050? Applying the Vector Error Correction model estimation process in the time series econometric estimation setting, this study projected the per capita and annual aggregate wheat consumptions of China and India during 2019-2050. In the process, this study relies on agricultural data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) database (FAOSTAT), as well as the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) data catalog. The presence of unit root in the data series are tested by applying the augmented Dickey-Fuller test; Philips-Perron unit root test; Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test allowing for a single break in intercept and/or trend. The test statistics suggest that a natural log transformation and with the first difference of the variables provides stationarity of the data series for both China and India. The Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test, however, suggested that there is a structural break in urban population share and GDP per capita. To tackle the issue, we have included a year dummy and two multiplicative dummies in our model. Furthermore, the Johansen cointegration test suggests that at least one variable in both data series were cointegrated. These tests enable us to apply Vector Error Correction (VEC) model estimation procedure. In estimation the model, the appropriate number of lags of the variables is confirmed by applying the "varsoc" command in Stata 17 software interface. The estimated yearly per capita wheat consumption in 2030 and 2050 from the VEC model, are multiplied by the projected population in 2030 and 2050 to calculate the projected aggregate wheat demand in China and India in 2030 and 2050. After projecting the yearly per capita wheat consumption (KG), we multiply with the projected population to get the expected consumption demand. This study found that the yearly per capita wheat consumption of China will increase from 65.8 kg in 2019 to 76 kg in 2030, and 95 kg in 2050. In India, the yearly per capita wheat consumption will increase to 74 kg in 2030 and 94 kg in 2050 from 60.4 kg in 2019. Considering the projected population growth rates under low-fertility assumptions, aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by more than 13% in 2030 and by 28% in 2050. Under the high-fertility rate assumption, however the aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by 18% in 2030 and nearly 50% in 2050. In the case of India, under both low and high-fertility rate assumptions, aggregate wheat demand in India will increase by 32-38% in 2030 and by 70-104% in 2050 compared to 2019 level of consumption. Our results underline the importance of wheat in both countries, which are the world's top wheat producers and consumers, and suggest the importance of research and development investments to maintain sufficient national wheat grain production levels to meet China and India's domestic demand. This is critical both to ensure the food security of this large segment of the world populace, which also includes 23% of the total population of the world who live on less than US $1.90/day, as well as to avoid potential grain market destabilization and price hikes that arise in the event of large import demands.

Infrastructure, institutions and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New evidence using the CS-ARDL approach

This study examined the interactive effect of infrastructure and quality of institutions on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1996 and 2020 using the Cross-Sectional-Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimator. This was with a view to providing additional macroeconomic evidence that is specific to the SSA region on the response of economic growth to infrastructure development contingent on the quality of the underlying institutions. Annual data on variables such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, fixed telephone subscriptions, mobile cellular subscriptions, electric power consumption, improved water source, improved sanitation facilities, gross capital formation per capita, labour force, urbanisation ratio, land area and population density were obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, 2021 edition. Also, data on institutional quality variables, namely, control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law, as well as voice and accountability were sourced from the World Governance Indicators (WDI) also of the World Bank, 2021 edition. Results showed that the per capita convergence holds true for countries in SSA in the long run, while it does not hold in the short run. The findings also revealed that infrastructure does not independently lead to economic growth in SSA when the role of institutions is not considered. This implies that any improvement in the stock of infrastructure will promote growth only when it is complemented with strong institutions. The study concluded that countries with weak institutions do not benefit maximally from infrastructure development policies as weak institutions constrain the efficient use of infrastructure assets.

Autoregressive distributed lag estimation of bank financing and Nigerian manufacturing sector capacity utilization

<abstract> <p>This study examined the short-term and long-term relationship between credit financing by commercial banks and capacity utilization of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. The study employed both classical Multiple Linear Regression (OLS-MLR) and the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to analyze data representing the period 1981–2020 relating to sectoral credit finance,labor employment,and capacity utilization from the <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b6">Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2020)</xref> and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="b38">World Bank Development Indicators (2021)</xref>. Further,the two estimation procedures were performed within a classical endogenous Cobb-Douglas production function framework that takes technical change into consideration. The bounds test indicated no long-term relationship between bank financing and average capacity utilization of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. However,the ARDL results revealed that bank financing exerts a positive but insignificant short-term impact on the average capacity utilization of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. Consequently,the researchers affirm that credit financing by commercial banks in Nigeria has no significant impact on the capacity utilization of the country's manufacturing sector,in neither the short run nor the long run.</p> </abstract>

Monetary policy regimes and price stability in the West African monetary zone

The study examined monetary policy regimes and price stability in the West African Monetary zone. This was undertaken given that countries in the zone are implementing different monetary policy regimes to achieve price stability for macroeconomic stability and economic growth, yet these have been elusive. So, the objective of the study was to examine the effect of monetary policy regimes on price stability in the West African monetary zone. The study adopted an ex-post facto research design and obtained secondary data from documents of the Central Banks of the WAMZ countries, the World Bank Development Indicator (WDI), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the International Financial Statistics (IFS) database for the period from 2001 to 2021. The method of data analysis involved the use of descriptive and analytical statistical tools. The estimation technique employed was the Panel Autoregressive Distribution Lag model, complemented by the Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (2021) granger-causality test. The findings of the study indicate that the various monetary policy regimes being implemented in the West African Monetary Zone yielded conflicting effects on price stability. On the whole, the results show that the monetary policy rate against the money supply is more effective to achieve price stability in the West African monetary zone. Hence, the study makes the following recommendations; policymakers must ensure that an effective monetary policy is put in place to curb the persistent inflation in the zone that undermines socioeconomic development. Countries should review monetary policy rates appropriately to stimulate output growth, and, there should be cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities in the West African Monetary Zone to ensure smooth coordination and consistency in monetary and fiscal pursuits.

DOES TRADE OPENNESS EXACERBATE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION? : EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

High emissions of greenhouse gases components have today become a world phenomenon. In Africa, Nigeria is the second-highest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), after South Africa. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions constitute the largest source of GHGs; hence it has become a widely discussed and researched subject. This, however, is a negative unintended consequence that has emanated from the growing interdependence of the world economies. One of the major instruments of achieving a global world which also stood as a major determinant of economic growth is trade openness. This paper, therefore, examines the impact and the relationship between trade openness on CO2 emissions in Nigeria. The method employed to achieve the stated objectives is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique, using the annual time series data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator, 2020, for periods 1980 to 2019. The major findings from the study show that there is an insignificant positive relationship between trade openness on CO2 emissions. Also, there exists an increasing trend of CO2 emissions in Nigeria, while that of trade openness shows fluctuation for the periodic review and this depicts a high vulnerability to external shocks. With these findings, the study recommends that the Nigerian government should be more proactive and tenacious in implementing environmental and trade policies in favour of a cleaner economy. Also, the Nigerian government must become keener toward attracting only investors that will produce clean goods and not compromise on the necessity to improve environmental quality

Effect of Public Debt on Poverty and Economic Growth of Nigeria (1981-2019)

The research in focus aimed to investigate the interplay between public debt, poverty, and economic growth in Nigeria during the period spanning from 1981 to 2019. The specific objective was to assess the relationship between these variables within the Nigerian context during this timeframe. To conduct this analysis, time series data were employed, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s annual statistical bulletin and World Bank development indicators. Initially, unit root tests, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philip Perron (PP) tests, were executed to establish the stationarity of the variables. These tests indicated that, in model one, all variables exhibited stationarity at order one (1) and order zero (0), whereas in model two, all variables were stationary at order one (1). Subsequently, the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) was employed to conduct short-run analysis and reveal the long-run coefficients in model one. In model two, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was utilized to investigate the data and assess the speed of adjustment from the short run to the long-run equilibrium state. The Granger causality test was also applied to determine causality relationships among the variables and to discern the direction of causality. The findings of this study indicate that external debt exhibited a negative impact in the short run but a positive impact in the long run on the Nigerian economy during the study period. Additionally, there was evidence of unidirectional causality between external debt and economic growth. Conversely, domestic debt exerted a negative influence on both short and long-term economic performance in Nigeria, with unidirectional causality established between domestic debt and economic growth. In light of these conclusions, the study recommends the implementation of effective debt management strategies by the government, especially concerning loan repayment. It is also suggested that loans acquired should be promptly channeled into viable investments aimed at enhancing the welfare of the populace and overall economic improvement.