World Agricultural Trade Research Articles

GMOS, Trade Policy, and Welfare in Rich and Poor Countries

The new agricultural biotechnologies that are generating genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are seen as exciting and valuable developments by some people, while others are objecting strongly to their use. Both environmental and food safety concerns have been raised by opponents of GM crops. That in turn is causing consumers and policy makers in numerous countries around the world to react and in some cases to over-react. A majority of people want at least to have labels on products that may contain GMOs, while the most extreme opponents (particularly in Western Europe) want to see GM crops totally excluded from production and consumption in their country. This paper first examines the ways in which the emergence of GMOs is generating policy reactions which, in extreme cases, may lead to trade disputes in the WTO. It then uses an empirical model of the global economy (the GTAP model) to quantify the effects on global production and trade patterns and national welfare of certain (non-European) countries adopting the new GMO technology in the context of different policy reactions in Western Europe. Specifically, the effects of an assumed degree of productivity growth in the maize and soybean sectors in selected countries are explored, and those results are then compared with what they would be if Western Europe chose to ban imports of those products from countries adopting GM technology. The effects of an alternative market-based shift in consumer preferences are then compared with this regulatory approach. The estimated implications for developing countries' participation in world agricultural and food trade, and for their economic welfare, are highlighted. Key words: GMOs, trade policy, SPS Agreement, TBT Agreement, food safety JEL codes: C68, D58, F13, O3, Q17, Q18

Globalization and Northeast Agriculture: Implications of the Upcoming Round of World Trade Negotiations

The signing of the Uruguay Round agreement on agriculture (URAA) in 1994 was a significant step towards the liberalization of world agricultural trade. A new round of negotiations on agriculture is scheduled to begin under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the end of 1999. This paper discusses the likely agenda of those negotiations and their implications for agriculture in the northeastern United States.

China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor-intensive products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill-intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor-intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non-grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).

China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12‐region, 14‐sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor‐intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill‐intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor‐intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non‐grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).

Agricultural Reform in the Former USSR

This paper uses a model of world agricultural trade to examine the effect of reform and trade liberalization by the republics of the former Soviet Union on their agricultural production, consumption, and trade. Reform involves the creation of a well-functioning and free-trading market economy. The main empirical requirement is computing measures of total support to agricultural producers and consumers (producer and consumer subsidy equivalents), which serve as the model's policy variables. The estimates indicate that reform would decrease the republics' aggregate of grain, but increase imports of soybean products.

The Cairns Group and the Uruguay Round of International Trade Negotiations

AbstractThe Cairns Group was formed out of frustration among comparatively efficient agricultural exporting countries about a series of changes in the conduct of world agricultural trade over which they, as individual countries, could have no influence. They are collectively significant as producers of agricultural products, with more value added in agriculture than either the EC or the United States, and as agricultural exporters, with more such exports than the EC and the United States combined. Their cohesion, stemming from the reduction in their net agricultural export earnings by more than half as a consequence of protection in industrial countries, and their unique combination of industrial and developing countries has given them an extraordinary influence over the conduct of the Uruguay Round. This article quantifies their collective interest in agricultural trade reform, reviews their contributions to the Round and examines their interest in the reforms which are most likely to emerge from it.

DIE MOONTLIKE IMPLIKASIES VAN DIE URUGUAY-RONDTE VAN MULTILATERALE HANDELSONDERHANDELINGE VIR SUIDERAFRIKA IN DIE ALGEMEEN EN DIE SUID-AFRIKAANSE LANDBOUSEKTOR IN DIE BESONDER / The possible implications of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations for Southern Africa in general and for South African Agriculture in particular

Abstract There is still a possibility that the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations will successfully be completed by early 1993. If there is consensus on a new GATT agreement on the basis of the current discussion document, the so-called Dunkel proposals, it will have several implications for South Africa's agricultural marketing system. This paper intends to summarise the development of negotiations in the Round and refers to the proposals for the liberalisation of world agricultural trade as detailed in the Dunkel paper. This paper shows that if these proposals were to be accepted and implemented it will amongst other things implicate that Article 87 of the Marketing Act should be abolished and that all quantitative import controls on agricultural products should be replaced by tariffs. This will have the effect that the Marketing Boards will lose their statutory powers on imported agricultural products. Apart from the effects on South African agriculture, the whole of Southern Africa would benefit from a successful completion of the Round as a failure will put the whole sub-continent in competition with strong trade-blocs in a situation where there is no organisation like the GATT guarding against unfair trading practices.

Food and agricultural policy reform; the case of Venezuela

Venezuela has recently taken steps towards reducing government intervention in agriculture. Based on simulation experiments, this article finds that agricultural policy reform leads to greater dependence on imports of corn and sorghum, but production and exports of ruminant and non-ruminant meats increased because of higher output prices. Overall, producers benefit from sector-specific and macroeconomic policy liberalization. In addition, government budgetary pressures are ameliorated but consumers bear significant cost increases. The results indicate that the effects of Venezuelan agricultural reform would be further enhanced by world agricultural trade liberalization.

Developing country debt: implications for agricultural trade

ABSTRACTThere has been a sharp decline in the rate of economic growth in many developing countries in the 1980s compared with the 1970s. Reduced availability of external finance following the international debt crisis has been identified as one of the most important factors responsible for this decline. At the same time there has been a slowdown in the rate of growth of food imports to these countries, particularly to the highly indepted ones.The focus in the paper is on the implications for international agricultural commodity markets of a dept write‐off in developing countries. To analyse these implications a world agricultural trade model is used. Specifically, the analysis covers the effect of existing debt on the permanent incomes of developing debtor countries and developed creditor countries, and hence the effect on agricultural commodity markets.The results indicate that, if the debts of the developing countries were written off, prices would improve in consequence of the resulting rise in their permanent incomes. If the debt write‐off also led to growth in developing countries returning to the levels prevalent before the debt crisis, the improvements in world prices would be likely to be much larger.

Developing country debt: implications for agricultural trade

There has been a sharp decline in the rate of economic growth in many developing countries in the 1980s compared with the 1970s. Reduced availability of external finance following the international debt crisis has been identified as one of the most important factors responsible for this decline. At the same time there has been a slowdown in the rate of growth of food imports to these countries, particularly to the highly indepted ones. The focus in the paper is on the implications for international agricultural commodity markets of a debt write-off in developing countries. To analyze these implications a world agricultural trade model is used. Specifically, the analysis covers the effect of existing debt on the permanent incomes of developing debtor countries and developed creditor countries, and hence the effect on agricultural commodity markets. The results indicate that, if the debts of the developing countries were written off, prices would improve in consequence of the resulting rise in their permanent incomes. If the debt write-off also led to growth in developing countries returning to the levels prevalent before the debt crisis, the improvements in world prices would be likely to be much larger.

World Agricultural Trade Reform: Implications for Australia

In this paper we assess the implications of agricultural trade reform by GATT member countries. To do this, we link two general equilibrium models, a world food trade model and the ORANI model of the Australian economy. By treating the ORANI model as an integral part of the world model, we are able to focus on the implications for Australia of world agricultural trade reform.The findings suggest that, if price distorting agricultural policies were removed by GATT member countries, world food commodity prices would rise, some by up to 30 per cent, and world food trade expand by about a third. Australia would be a major beneficiary of these international developments, the value of its agricultural exports rising by close to 15 per cent. In 1986, this would have meant for Australia additional export earnings of around SUS750 million, as well as more rapid economic growth.

Agriculture in the GATT: an analysis of alternative approaches to reform and World agricultural trade: building a consensus

Journal Article Agriculture in the GATT: an analysis of alternative approaches to reform and World agricultural trade: building a consensus Get access Agriculture in the GATT: an analysis of alternative approaches to reform. By Joachim Zietzand Alberto Valdes. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute/Kiel Institute of World Economics. 1988. 199pp. (Research Report 70.) Pb. ISBN 0 89629 072 7.World agricultural trade: building a consensus. Edited by William M. Minerand Dale E. Hathaway. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics/Institute for Research on Public Policy, Canada. 1988. 218pp. Pb. ISBN 0 88645 071 3. Michael Franklin Michael Franklin 1Chatham House Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar International Affairs, Volume 66, Issue 3, July 1990, Page 590, https://doi.org/10.2307/2623108 Published: 01 July 1990

World Agricultural Trade: Building a Consensus

World Agricultural Trade: Building a Consensus

GATT and the 1990 Farm Bill: Compatibility or Confrontation?

The future of U.S. agriculture could be reshaped by the convergence of two major policy initiatives over the next two years: the 1990 farm bill and the effort to liberalize world agricultural trade under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The debate related to these two initiatives, until now, has been carried out in separate arenas. The progress of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTN) toward a targeted 1991 completion date and the pending renewal of U.S. farm legislation will force these two initiatives to be considered jointly within the next few months. In particular, the outcome of the 1990 farm bill debate in the U.S. Congress will provide an early indication of the direction the United States will take in its own policies and how those policies might fit into a negotiated agreement. Past U.S. farm policy has been formulated primarily on the basis of commodity group demands constrained by mild budget pressures. The debate on the 1990 farm bill, however, promises to be different. Growing budget pressure imposed by the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act, which requires the Congress to reduce the budget deficit to a specified target each year until the deficit is eliminated, could force legislators and the administration to accept lower levels of support than they would have. In this budget-cutting environment, the gains from a mutual reduction of agricultural trade barriers through an agreement in the multilateral trade negotiations presents an attractive alternative.

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

SUMMARYA four‐region, 23‐commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices.In summary, the impacts of the Canada‐U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions.Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.

World Agricultural Trade: Building a Consensus

World Agricultural Trade: Building a Consensus

Gatt and Agriculture: The Role of Special Interest Groups

(a) The 1980s have been a decade of crisis for much of world agriculture. Following a period of unusual growth in world demand and trade, the 1980s have witnessed a decline in exports, plummeting agricultural prices, widespread economic distress in farming and associated industries, and rising trade tensions as nations have sought to protect their farmers (Institute for International Economics, p. 1). (b) The playing field in world agricultural trade is uneven. Some countries subsidize their exports; some tax imports; others tax exports. Most nations try to help their farmers through domestic farm programs. All these influences converge to distort the price signals that would otherwise govern supply and demand in a freer trade environment. The resulting hodgepodge has disadvantaged many producers in the United States and other countries, even though their farm products are among the least expensive to produce (Ballenger, Dunmore, and Lederer, p. 1). (c) The problems of agriculture have engaged the attention of world leaders and have become a major issue in the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). . . . A number of fora, including the GATT Ministerial Meeting at Punta del Este in September 1986 that launched the Uruguay Round, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Ministerial Meeting in May 1987, and the Venice Summit of industrial country leaders in June 1987, have issued declarations which support liberalization of agricultural trade and reform of domestic farm policies. . . . Trade Ministers of the GATT countries will also meet in December 1988 in

EC agricultural reform policy—The beginning of a new form of protectionism?

The European Community regards its current agricultural policy “reforms” as an adjustment to the reality of the market and hence as a contribution to easing the strains in world agricultural trade and reducing worldwide distortions in resource allocation. A detailed analysis gives ground for scepticism.

THE COST-COMPETITIVENESS OF MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES OF MAIZE, WHEAT AND SOYBEANS I: PRODUCTION AND MARKETING COSTS

ABSTRACT U.S. competitiveness with regard to agricultural commodities has been of major interest recently because of the declining U.S. share in world agricultural trade. Competitiveness, defined as the ability of a country to achieve a market share, is determined by a number of factors which affect the excess supply and excess demand conditions of exporters and importers, respectively. On the supply side, this study deals with the costs involved in producing and marketing maize, wheat and soybeans by various middle-income and high-income countries. Private economic costs are used as reported by each country and reflect natural endowments and technology levels as well as specific government policies. Production costs, representing farmer experience over several years, and costs of marketing are adjusted for inflation and converted to dollar equivalents at mid-1986 exchange rates.

Fostering Trade in a Hostile International Environment: Discussion

The papers by Premier Devine and Secretary Miller argue for a saner approach to world trade in agricultural commodities. Both see their countries as the injured parties in a trade war between the giants-the United States and the European Community. Not only are they the injured parties, which is bad enough, but it is made worse because they see themselves as the good guys. This is the stuff martyrdom is made of. They see themselves as free traders, and both papers provide a spirited defense of free trade. The papers also forcefully document the evils of inward-looking protectionism as perpetrated by the bad guys. Parenthetically, one has to wonder that if this were a meeting of American, European, and Japanese agricultural economists, who would they bash (brand as the bad guys). In these two papers, as well as over the course of the past three days, world agricultural trade has been discussed without a clear delineation of the conception of the world market being discussed. In these discussions I have heard at least three different perceptions being used: (a) The comparative advantage world. In this conception, everybody does what they are best at doing, trading that output for other goods. In theory, this world makes every country better off. Often, however, we forget that this does not mean every individual in every country is better off. A move to free trade generates both winners and los-