Wind Speed Forecasting Model Research Articles

A novel hybrid model for multi-step-ahead forecasting of wind speed based on univariate data feature enhancement

Reliable multistep ahead wind speed forecasting (MAWSF) is critical for the energy management of wind farms and the long-term maintenance of wind power systems. However, relying on inherent meteorological features such as temperature and atmospheric pressure often fails to meet the deep learning model’s feature requirements for accurate wind speed forecasting (WSF). This paper introduces a hybrid multistep forecasting model that constructs a univariate wind speed feature enhancement framework, combining random forest (RF) and Transformer models for WSF. Initially, the hybrid enhancement framework decomposes the univariate wind speed data and extracts time-series features, effectively mining the latent features information. Subsequently, the RF feature selector filters out significant features contributing to WSF and eliminates redundant features to provide stable features data. Finally, Transformer model is utilized for both short-term and long-term MAWSF. This study conducted MAWSF on data with sampling intervals of 20 min, 30 min and 1 h. The results indicate that, compared to existing state-of-the-art models, the hybrid model in MAWSF tasks reduces the dependency of models on inherent meteorological features, achieving more accurate forecasting and faster computation speeds. Ultimately, the proposed model can provide reliable technical support for energy management and maintenance guidance in real-world wind farms.

DMPR: A novel wind speed forecasting model based on optimized decomposition, multi-objective feature selection, and patch-based RNN

As the global demand for sustainable energy continues to grow, accurate wind speed prediction becomes crucial for optimizing the allocation of wind energy resources and enhancing the efficiency of wind power generation. This paper presents a composite prediction model that integrates Optimized Decomposition, Multi-Objective Feature Selection (MOFS), Patch-Based Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and Cross-Attention Mechanisms. Initially, the wind speed time series is decomposed using RIME-optimized Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and sample entropy of each component is calculated to reconstruct high, medium, and low-frequency components. Subsequently, these components are patched to serve as inputs to the RNN layers. The third step involves the incorporation of exogenous variables, where MOFS is employed for feature selection, followed by a decomposition and reconstruction through RIME-optimized VMD. This process applies Variate-wise Cross-Attention Mechanism on the high, medium, and low-frequency components of both endogenous and exogenous variables. Finally, the outputs from all processing steps are integrated through a normalization layer and a feed-forward layer to produce the final prediction results. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed model, through meticulous preprocessing and advanced architectural design, significantly improves the accuracy of wind speed predictions.

An Integrated CEEMDAN to Optimize Deep Long Short-Term Memory Model for Wind Speed Forecasting

Accurate wind speed forecasting is crucial for the efficient operation of renewable energy platforms, such as wind turbines, as it facilitates more effective management of power output and maintains grid reliability and stability. However, the inherent variability and intermittency of wind speed present significant challenges for achieving precise forecasts. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel method based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) and a deep learning-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for wind speed forecasting. In the proposed method, CEEMDAN is utilized to decompose the original wind speed signal into different modes to capture the multiscale temporal properties and patterns of wind speeds. Subsequently, LSTM is employed to predict each subseries derived from the CEEMDAN process. These individual subseries predictions are then combined to generate the overall final forecast. The proposed method is validated using real-world wind speed data from Austria and Almeria. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method achieves minimal mean absolute percentage errors of 0.3285 and 0.1455, outperforming other popular models across multiple performance criteria.

Graph neural network incorporating time-varying frequency domain features with application in spatial wind speed field prediction

Precise forecasting of wind speed is vital to guarantee safe travel on bridges. Nevertheless, current research primarily concentrates on single-point prediction. When it comes to forecasting spatial wind fields, graph neural networks prove to be powerful methods, but many of them have yet to take into account the impact of frequency domain attributes. To address this, a novel model called the graph neural network with time-varying frequency features (GTF) is proposed. Its core layer employs wavelet transforms in matrix form to extract various frequency sub-series, followed by the use of adaptive adjacency matrices to identify their spatial characteristics. Furthermore, aggregating all frequency band information and exploring spatial features further through multi-kernel convolutions. The predictive performance of different models for wind speed forecasting is assessed by utilizing spatial wind field data collected on a large-span bridge. Experimental results demonstrate that spatiotemporal model GTF outperforms the other models in terms of predictive accuracy. The quantity of wind observation points and their level of correlation exert a certain impact on the GTF model, while hyperparameters such as stacking depth and wavelet decomposition parameters have minimal effects. Finally, recommended parameters for the GTF model are provided.

Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and a Novel Optimization Algorithm

The wind power generation capacity is increasing rapidly every year. There needs to be a corresponding development in the management of wind power. Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for a wind power management system. However, it is not easy to forecast wind speed precisely since wind speed time series data are usually nonlinear and fluctuant. This paper proposes a novel combined wind speed forecasting model that based on PSR (phase space reconstruction), NNCT (no negative constraint theory) and a novel GPSOGA (a hybrid optimization algorithm that combines global elite opposition-based learning strategy, particle swarm optimization and the genetic algorithm) optimization algorithm. SSA (singular spectrum analysis) is firstly applied to decompose the original wind speed time series into IMFs (intrinsic mode functions). Then, PSR is employed to reconstruct the intrinsic mode functions into input and output vectors of the forecasting model. A combined forecasting model is proposed that contains a CBP (cascade back propagation network), RNN (recurrent neural network), GRU (gated recurrent unit), and CNNRNN (convolutional neural network combined with recurrent neural network). The NNCT strategy is used to combine the output of the four predictors, and a new optimization algorithm is proposed to find the optimal combination parameters. In order to validate the performance of the proposed algorithm, we compare the forecasting results of the proposed algorithm with different models on four datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the forecasting performance of the proposed algorithm is better than other comparison models in terms of different indicators. The DM (Diebold–Mariano) test, Akaike’s information criterion and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient confirm that the proposed algorithm outperforms the comparison models.

STELLM: Spatio-temporal enhanced pre-trained large language model for wind speed forecasting

As a renewable and clean energy source, wind energy has caught worldwide attention. To ensure the reliability and stability of wind energy production, wind speed forecasting is of great importance. Although existing forecasting models have shown promising results, they remain relatively small in scale and are incapable of learning comprehensive sequential representations from large-scale data to reason intricate spatio-temporal patterns obscured in entangled wind series. Recently, pre-trained large models have demonstrated impressive performance in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). However, large models are rarely applied to wind speed forecasting due to the lack of large-scale wind data for training. To resolve this issue, we propose Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Pre-Trained Large Language Model, namely STELLM, innovatively leveraging the powerful reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) for accurate wind speed forecasting. Specifically, we first perform the series decomposition to separate wind series data into seasonal and trend components, capturing the distinct properties from disentangled patterns. Then, to empower LLMs with the spatio-temporal modeling capability, we introduce the spatial and temporal prompts, which fuse the geographic distribution information and short-term temporal patterns of wind turbines to enrich the input wind series. Moreover, we leverage an autoregressive fine-tuning strategy to align LLMs with wind series data and learn patch-level representations. Afterwards these representations are fed into a localized spatial module to capture the spatial dependencies between wind turbines. Extensive experiments on four public wind datasets demonstrate the performance superiority of STELLM.

Handling Volatility and Nonlinearity in Wind Speed Data: A Comparative Analysis between ARIMA-GARCH and ARIMA-MLP

One of the notable features of wind speed is its volatility and nonlinearity. Thorough assessment on the presence of these features is crucial to obtain a wind speed forecasting model with higher accuracy. In this study, the conventional time series linear model; ARIMA model was applied to assess the internal structure of the wind speed daily data in two stations in Johor; Senai and Mersing. Due to the existence of some nonlinearity features in the residuals part of ARIMA modelling, two nonlinear models were introduced to capture the internal structure of the residual data. Both conventional time series models; GARCH, and machine learning model; MLP was applied to model the residuals of ARIMA model. The out-sample performance in forecasting accuracy was compared between the ARIMA-GARCH model and the ARIMA-MLP model. The findings proves that MLP model has outperformed GARCH model in capturing the dynamics in the residual data by providing the lowest error measurements. Thus, the machine learning approaches has proven its superiority against the conventional time series nonlinear model in handling the nonlinearity in the daily wind speed series for wind speed forecasting.

Performance analysis of ARIMA Model for wind speed forecasting in Jerusalem, Palestine

Palestine lacks sufficient conventional energy sources that meet the daily needs of the Palestinian people, and consequently, it heavily relies on neighboring countries for its supply with energy compensations. Wind energy is recognized as an abundant, effective, and eco-friendly power source, but it poses several challenges in harnessing due to the inherent variability of wind characteristics. The main objective of this research study is to delve into the wind energy landscape in Palestine, and to offer some insights into the feasibility of wind speed forecasting for implementing sustainable energy solutions, with a special focus on ARIMA; a widely used statistical method for time series forecasting. It specifically explores the potential of using ARIMA models to forecast wind speed using a data captured from a meteorological station located in east Jerusalem, Palestine for a duration of 2 years—January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022. To find the optimal values of ARIMA parameters (p, d, q) for the considered study site, a set of experiments were conducted and the model's forecasting accuracy was evaluated using three metrics: RMSE, MAE, and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results have shown that ARIMA (21,2) emerges as the most accurate structure with an input period that demonstrates superior estimation with minimal RMSE (1.74), minimal MAE (1.58) and higher R2 (0.76) values. This means that the optimal estimation is achieved when an autoregressive process is based on the previous two lagged observations and the moving average process incorporates the dependency between the observation and the residual error from a second-order moving average applied to the lagged observations. These findings give valuable insights into the feasibility and precision of wind speed forecasting models for sustainable energy solutions, and emphasize the potential for harnessing wind energy in the region as clarified by ARIMA forecasting accuracy.

A wind speed forecasting model using nonlinear auto-regressive model optimized by the hybrid chaos-cloud salp swarm algorithm

Wind energy forecasting is significantly affected by the strong volatility, intermittency and variability of the wind speed sequence itself. Therefore, to improve forecast accuracy and stability, based on nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) and the hybrid chaos-cloud salp swarm algorithm (CC-SSA), a short-term wind speed prediction method is proposed. Firstly, to reduce the complexity of the original wind speed data and generate subcomponents with different patterns and low complexity, a mixed modal decomposition method is carried out by combining variational modal decomposition (VMD) based on Pearson correlation coefficient and generalized S-transform (GST) based on adaptive sample entropy. Therefore, the complementary advantages of different mode decompositions are obtained by combining the two different subcomponents into a mixed component. Secondly, by using cloud model and chaotic map, the improved CC-SSA algorithm is proposed to improve the convergence performance of salp swarm algorithm (SSA). Finally, by using CC-SSA algorithm to optimize the weights of NARX, the CC-SSA-NARX forecasting model is established to predict wind speed. The experimental results show that for the 1-Step, 2-Step, and 3-Step datasets of the actual wind speed in the studied region, the MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and R2 of the CC-SSA-NARX model are 0.23, 6 %, 0.27, and 0.97 respectively. The proposed model present the highest prediction index among the other 7 comparative models, showing high accuracy and generalization ability in short-term wind speed prediction, it can provide a certain reference for enhancing the stability of wind power generation and promoting the sustainable development of the wind power industry to some extent.

A short-term wind speed prediction method based on the BLS–RVM hybrid model

Abstract The study introduces a novel approach to short-term wind speed forecasting, which amalgamates statistical and machine learning techniques through the utilization of a hybrid model consisting of the broad learning system (BLS) and the relevance vector machine (RVM), to account for the nonstationary characteristics of wind speed data. Firstly, the initial wind speed time series is preprocessed using singular spectrum analysis to achieve noise reduction. Subsequently, the denoised wind speed time series is predicted using generalized learning system (BLS), and the prediction error is obtained. Finally, the prediction error of BLS is further predicted using RVM, and the final prediction result is obtained by combining it with the prediction results of BLS. By integrating multiple algorithms, this novel wind speed forecasting hybrid model improves prediction accuracy and can adapt to different wind speed characteristics and complex wind speed fluctuations. Through a case study, we find that this model outperforms other comparative models in terms of prediction, fully demonstrating its superiority.

Performance enhancement of short-term wind speed forecasting model using Realtime data.

The ever-increasing demand for electricity has presented a grave threat to traditional energy sources, which are finite, rapidly depleting, and have a detrimental environmental impact. These shortcomings of conventional energy resources have caused the globe to switch from traditional to renewable energy sources. Wind power significantly contributes to carbon-free energy because it is widely accessible, inexpensive, and produces no harmful emissions. Better and more efficient renewable wind power production relies on accurate wind speed predictions. Accurate short-term wind speed forecasting is essential for effectively handling unsteady wind power generation and ensuring that wind turbines operate safely. The significant stochastic nature of the wind speed and its dynamic unpredictability makes it difficult to forecast. This paper develops a hybrid model, L-LG-S, for precise short-term wind speed forecasting to address problems in wind speed forecasting. In this research, state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning algorithms employed in wind speed forecasting are compared with the proposed approach. The effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model is tested using real-world wind speed data from a wind turbine located in the city of Karachi, Pakistan. Moreover, the mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are used as accuracy evaluation indices. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art legacy models in terms of accuracy for short-term wind speed in training, validation and test predictions by 98% respectively.

A novel hybrid algorithm based on Empirical Fourier decomposition and deep learning for wind speed forecasting

As the demand for renewable energy is increasing, wind speed forecasting (WSF) becomes increasingly popular and essential for wind power generation. Several methods have been developed in the literature for WSF. However, WSF accuracy is challenging to obtain due to its non-stationary and non-linear character. To overcome this issue, this study suggests a novel integrated forecasting model for WSF. In the majority of cases, decomposition techniques are essential for removing noise and extracting patterns from non-stationary and non-linear wind speed time series. Among these decomposition techniques, the most widely used decomposition methods based on frequency domain theory are the Fourier decomposition method (FDM), the empirical wavelet transform (EWT), and the variational mode decomposition (VMD). However, FDM decomposition gives inconsistent results, EWT has mixed problems, and VMD is unsuitable for non-stationary time series. Thus, a novel combined model based on empirical Fourier decomposition (EFD) techniques, long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, and the Grey Wolf optimizer (GWO) is proposed in this paper. Initially, the wind speed time series is decomposed using EFD into a set of sub-series and a residual, which is a stationary sub-series that can be easily modelled by a recurrent neural network (RNN). Further, the matching LSTM is used to forecast each sub-series and residual, while the GWO optimizes the sub-series estimated output, resulting in improved prediction precision and stability. In order to assess the model performance, five wind speed datasets from various places in India are employed. The findings show that the proposed model is the top performing model among the other ten models; The average statistical score obtained from all datasets reduces 11.01% in the mean absolute error (MAE), 10.68% in the root mean square error (RMSE) and 10.73% in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Further, regularity conditions for universal consistency of proposed model is also proved mathematically.

A dual-optimization wind speed forecasting model based on deep learning and improved dung beetle optimization algorithm

Accurate wind speed forecasting is capable of increasing the stability of wind power system. Notably, there are numerous factors affecting wind speed, thus causing wind speed forecasting to be difficult. To address the above-mentioned challenge, a novel hybrid model integrating genetic algorithm (GA), variational mode decomposition (VMD), improved dung beetle optimization algorithm (IDBO), and Bidirectional long short-term memory network based on attention mechanism (BiLSTM-A) is proposed in this study to achieve satisfactory forecasting performance. In the proposed model, GA is adopted to optimize the VMD to eliminate noise and extract original series attributes. And the IDBO is adopted for hyperparameters selection for the BiLSTM-A. The proposed GA-VMD-IDBO-BiLSTM-A is compared with nine established comparable models, with the aim of verifying its forecasting performance. A series of experiments on four 1-hour real wind series in Stratford are performed to assess the performance of the model. The MAPE of the four datasets forecasting results reached 1.4%, 2.4%, 3.5%, 2.4%. As indicated by the experimental results, GA-VMD can better process the data and improve the forecasting accuracy. IDBO can optimize the parameters of BiLSTM model and improve the forecasting performance. The dual-optimization wind speed forecasting model can obtain high accuracy and strong stability.

Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting for Smart City Power Grid With a Hybrid Machine Learning Framework

To address foreseeable challenges during the penetration of wind energy into the power grid, including accurate wind power forecasting and smart power generation scheduling, this study proposes a novel short-term wind speed forecasting model, named EMD-KM-SXL, which is based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD), K-means clustering and machine learning, and a new two-stage short-term wind power forecasting model based on wind speed forecasting and wind power curve modeling. The former wind speed forecasting model regards historical wind speed observations as model inputs, and the latter power forecasting model utilizes knowledge augmentation, introducing wind power conversion relationship, environmental factors as well as wind power system status parameters. In the proposed wind speed forecasting model, three machine learning models, including support vector regressor, XGBoost regressor, and Lasso regressor, are employed to forecast three types of frequency components that are generated via EMD and K-means clustering. Then, the wind power curve model is utilized to compute potential outpower based on the predicted wind speed, which is regarded as the first stage of the proposed wind power forecasting model. In the second stage, environmental factors and wind power system status parameters are introduced and an artificial neural network model, considering preliminary predicted power, environmental factors, and wind power system status parameters as model inputs, is built to make final power prediction. Computational results show that proposed models achieve the best performance in terms of wind speed and power forecasting over different forecasting horizons ranging from 10 to 40 minutes, compared with benchmarking methods.

Combined wind speed forecasting model based on secondary decomposition and quantile regression closed-form continuous-time neural network

ABSTRACT Reliable interval forecasts can quantify the potential risk of wind speeds, which can help people make better use of wind energy. In this study, a new probabilistic prediction model, called Quantile Regression Closed-Form Continuous-time Neural Network (QRCfC), is proposed by combining quantile regression and closed-form continuous-time neural network. A new combined model combining QRCfC, secondary decomposition, multi-objective optimization, and dynamic weight combination strategy is proposed, which makes full use of the advantages of each single model to obtain accurate deterministic prediction and reliable probabilistic interval prediction of wind speed. First, the original wind speed series is divided into several subseries using a secondary decomposition technique built on variational mode decomposition and singular spectrum analysis. Then, four base models are used to predict these subseries separately. After that, the predicted values of the four base models are input into QRCfC for training, where the hyperparameters of QRCfC are dynamically adjusted by a multi-objective ant lion optimization algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed models, experiments are conducted using data sets from three wind farms in Gansu, China. Simulation results show that the proposed model achieves excellent prediction performance in both deterministic and probabilistic prediction. For example, compared with the unoptimized quantile regression time convolution network, quantile regression long-short time memory, quantile regression gated recurrent unit, and quantile regression neural network, the proposed model reduces the MAPE by 21.89% and the CRPS by 11.14% for 1-step prediction at site 1.

Learning based short term wind speed forecasting models for smart grid applications: An extensive review and case study

This paper provides an extensive review of learning-based short-term forecasting models for smart grid applications. In addition to this, the paper also explores forecasting models including physical, statistical, hybrid, and uncertainty analysis models for wind speed forecasting. The learning-based models are classified into three broad categories, namely classical machine learning, advanced machine learning, and probabilistic learning. In this work, 41 different models are employed to forecast the wind speed. Dataset for this case study is collected from the site of Jodhpur, India. Dataset have 8759 sample with five features i.e., wind speed, pressure, humidity, temperature, and dew point. This forecast also includes the seasonal effects. Model accuracy has been tested considering single and multiple features in the input data. A comparative analysis of the performance of these 41 learning-based models is conducted based on coefficient of regression and error indices. It is observed that the performance of these models varies with the variability in the season. On the basis of the evaluation of these models, future recommendations are also framed out. These recommendations target of energy storage planning, energy market and policymakers, and reliability and reserve sizing direction. These recommendations can be utilized by authorities for effective planning and coordination of power.

Multimodality-based Wind Speed Forecasting Method for the Wind Resistance Control of Large Radio Telescope

A large, fully steerable radio telescope is susceptible to the wind load, leading to structure deformation and pointing deviation of the telescope. To effectively suppress the influence of dynamic wind load, the wind resistance control of the telescope is carried out based on wind speed forecasting. This study developed a wind speed forecasting model to efficiently forecast the wind speed at the telescope position. The proposed model successfully eliminates the random noise of the original wind speed, effectively extracts the wind speed features and solves the automatic optimization of the hyperparameters of the forecasting network. This model significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of wind speed forecasting. To verify the forecasting performance of the proposed model, the wind data from the Qitai Radio Telescope site is examined as a case study. The wind speed forecasting model’s MAE, RMSE and MAPE are 0.0361, 0.0703 and 3.87%, respectively. The performance of the proposed model meets the requirements of wind resistance control and can provide data support for the radio telescope.

A Novel Ensemble Model Based on an Advanced Optimization Algorithm for Wind Speed Forecasting

Concerning the vision of achieving carbon neutral and peak carbon goals, wind energy is extremely important as a renewable and clean energy source. However, existing research ignores the implicit features of the data preprocessing technique and the role of the internal mechanism of the optimization algorithm, making it difficult to achieve high-accuracy prediction. To fill this gap, this study proposes a wind speed forecasting model that combines data denoising techniques, optimization algorithms, and machine learning algorithms. The model discusses the important parameters in the data decomposition technique, determines the best parameter values by comparing the model’s performance, and then decomposes and reconstructs the wind speed time series. In addition, a novel optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the machine learning algorithm using a waiting strategy and an aggressive strategy to improve the effectiveness of the model. Several control experiments were designed and implemented using 10-min wind speed data from three sites in Penglai, Shandong Province. Based on the numerical comparison results and the discussion of the proposed model, it is concluded that the developed model can obtain high accuracy and reliability of wind speed prediction in the short term relative to other comparative models and can have further applications in wind power plants.

Multi-Step-Ahead Wind Speed Forecast Method Based on Outlier Correction, Optimized Decomposition, and DLinear Model

Precise and dependable wind speed forecasting (WSF) enables operators of wind turbines to make informed decisions and maximize the use of available wind energy. This study proposes a hybrid WSF model based on outlier correction, heuristic algorithms, signal decomposition methods, and DLinear. Specifically, the hybrid model (HI-IVMD-DLinear) comprises the Hampel identifier (HI), the improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) optimized by grey wolf optimization (GWO), and DLinear. Firstly, outliers in the wind speed sequence are detected and replaced with the HI to mitigate their impact on prediction accuracy. Next, the HI-processed sequence is decomposed into multiple sub-sequences with the IVMD to mitigate the non-stationarity and fluctuations. Finally, each sub-sequence is predicted by the novel DLinear algorithm individually. The predictions are reconstructed to obtain the final wind speed forecast. The HI-IVMD-DLinear is utilized to predict the real historical wind speed sequences from three regions so as to assess its performance. The experimental results reveal the following findings: (a) HI could enhance prediction accuracy and mitigate the adverse effects of outliers; (b) IVMD demonstrates superior decomposition performance; (c) DLinear has great prediction performance and is suited to WSF; and (d) overall, the HI-IVMD-DLinear exhibits superior precision and stability in one-to-four-step-ahead forecasting, highlighting its vast potential for application.

Wind field forecasting using a novel method based on convolutional neural networks and bidirectional LSTM

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a deep-learning-based wind speed forecasting model based on CNNs and BLSTM. After CNN layers there are BLSTM layers which take the high-level features from the CNN layer and capture the behaviour of data in time. Finally, the BLSTM layers are followed by a fully connected layer and loss function. The main advantage of the proposed method over previous methods is the two-level structure of the model. In this architecture, the CNN layers extract the high-level features from raw input data and feed them to the BLSTM layers which are very good at capturing the sequential pattern of the data. This feature of the network increases the accuracy and performance of the model significantly. The simulation results illustrate the accurate and reliable performance of the proposed method. Also, it is shown that the performance of the model in forecasting the U characteristics of the wind is relatively better than V characteristics.