ABSTRACT Offshore wind turbines (OWTs) are highly susceptible to fatigue deterioration under extreme environmental conditions, making optimal inspection and maintenance (I&M) planning critical for their safe and sustainable operation. The dynamic nature of weather and complex deterioration processes challenge the long-term effectiveness of maintenance strategies. Moreover, I&M policies often become outdated when deterioration models are updated. Unlike traditional approaches that rely on a fixed life-span horizon, effective I&M planning must adapt to evolving conditions and varying planning horizons. This paper introduces a model predictive control (MPC) method for adaptive, risk-based I&M planning of OWTs. The closed-loop MPC approach provides flexibility by dynamically adjusting inspection and maintenance strategies based on evolving fatigue risks. We propose an augmented state-space model that captures the impact of probabilistic I&M actions on fatigue failure risks over time. A finite-horizon optimal control problem is then formulated to derive the MPC controller, which balances fatigue risk and I&M costs over the planning horizon. The proposed method is demonstrated using a fatigue-prone OWT component. Results show that the MPC controller effectively manages the trade-off between fatigue risk and maintenance costs while remaining adaptable to different planning horizons and decision-making preferences.
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