Wind Capacity Research Articles

Can offshore wind energy help to attain carbon neutrality amid climate change? A GIS-MCDM based analysis to unravel the facts using CORDEX-SA

Harnessing offshore wind energy helps to achieve carbon neutrality. However, the availability of wind resources is sensitive to climate change and also depends on the available foundation technologies of wind turbines. Investigating annual energy production (AEP) and CO2 equivalent emission avoidance using offshore wind farms helps to make appropriate energy strategies. This study uses an ensemble developed using CORDEX-South Asia regional climate models by assigning weights derived from the CRITIC multi-criteria technique to estimate AEP under two representative concentration pathways (RCP), i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the North Indian Ocean. To account for the impact of climate change, inter and intra-annual variations in the wind power density (WPD), capacity factor (CF), and AEP are estimated. Estimates based on the feasibility of foundation technology show that the cumulative AEP obtained from the 240 MW wind farm in historic, near- and far-future scenarios are 357.91 TWh, 808.6 TWh, and 4888.78 TWh, respectively. In the near future, harnessing offshore wind energy can reduce CO2 emissions by 4500 million tons annually. The findings of this study suggest that harnessing offshore wind energy by installing farms within the study area could help in the massive reduction of CO2 emissions leading to carbon neutrality.

Offshore geotechnical challenges of the energy transition

Offshore wind is the most mature of the offshore renewable energy technologies and has a significant role to play in the energy transition. 2000 GW of offshore wind capacity is anticipated globally by 2050 in order meet the targets of the Paris Agreement [1]. These ambitions correspond to a 35-fold increase compared to current installed offshore wind capacity, which has taken three decades to achieve, thus requiring an installation rate between now and the mid-century far out-stripping that currently achieved [2]. The pace and scale of offshore wind ambitions to support the energy transition present a range of challenges for the offshore geotechnical sector and the broader offshore wind sector, with impacts across the supply chain regarding availability of raw materials, vessels, equipment and personnel, and across each stage of the life-cycle of the projects from marine spatial planning, site investigation, design, manufacturing, installation, operation and decommissioning. To address these challenges, the sector faces key imperatives, including (i) to determine where best to place future offshore windfarms to meet technical, social and environmental requirements and identify where technology and knowledge gaps exist, (ii) to improve efficiency in deriving geotechnical design parameters in order to alleviate pressures on people, vessels, equipment and labs for site investigation and interpretation of test results; (iii) to improve efficiency of design outcomes, i.e. to achieve greater capacity:weight efficiency for foundations, anchors and mooring systems to ease supply chain, manufacturing and installation pressures, while maintaining necessary reliability; (iv) to improve time efficiency to complete designs in order to make design calculations and processes less time- and personnel-intensive to carry out; and (v) to improve the life-cycle cost of delivering the necessary offshore wind to enable a net zero future through considering the end of engineered life at the design stage. 
 Figure 1 illustrates the magnitude of the projected and necessary growth in offshore wind globally to 2050 in terms of installed offshore wind capacity and number of turbines, with an indication of the associated geotechnical implications for this pace and scale of growth.
 Potential solutions to address the identified challenges and associated imperatives include those to address specifically geotechnical challenges, but also geotechnical solutions to offshore wind challenges beyond the seabed. For example, (i) use of geospatial mapping and analysis to determine the available seabed areas for future offshore windfarms and identify suitable foundations or anchors for particular regions, which can in turn inform on supply chain or critical technology and knowledge gaps [4]; (ii) innovations to increase efficiency of offshore site investigation, including software [5] [6] and hardware approaches [7] to facilitate seabed characterization at meaningful spatial and temporal scales; (iii) innovations in design philosophy, concepts and methods to improve design outcomes for foundations and anchoring systems, including whole life geotechnical design [8], novel moorings and anchors [9] [10] [11] and integrated design [12]; (iv) creation of optimization design tools that can directly address the design question, avoiding numerous ad hoc individual analyses to hone in to a workable solution [13] [14]; and (v) methods to inform on requirements for end of engineered life, e.g. retrieval or stability if left in situ beyond the design life [15] [16], and geospatial mapping to understand the distribution of assets at the end of engineered life in order to plan for recycling or disposal [17].

Post-installation performance of piles installed with a novel driving method: field tests and numerical modelling

Since the industrial revolution, humanity's impact on the planet has increased significantly. The growth of global economies and population size in the 20th century was fueled by the combustion of fossil fuels. In an effort to reduce the impact of human kind on the environment, governments ratified landmark agreements such as the Montreal Protocol in 1987, the UNFCCC in 1992, the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, and the Paris Agreement in 2015.
 To support this effort, the European implemented the European Green Deal (2019), which aims to achieve no-net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Offshore wind energy, particularly large-diameter monopiles, is expected to play a substantial role in this transition. Europe has already developed over 28 GW of offshore wind power, with a global capacity of 37 GW as of 2021 [8]. However, to meet the goals of the European Green Deal, offshore wind capacity needs to scale up significantly in the next 28 years.
 The installation of monopiles, the most selected foundation option for offshore wind turbines, has traditionally relied on impact hammering. This method has drawbacks such as lengthy installation times, and noise emissions harmful to marine life. An alternative approach is axial vibratory pile driving, which offers faster and quieter installation. However, certification bodies have yet to endorse its use for offshore wind farm construction owing to uncertainties relating to the post-installation monopile performance. Research efforts are being devoted to understanding the dynamic behaviour of the soil during vibro-driving and the effects of vibro-installation on pile performance. Several geotechnical research teams are investigating the post-installation lateral behaviour of monopiles and comparing the performance of impact piling and vibratory piling [1-7,9-13].
 To complement the effort towards noiseless pile driving researchers from TU Delft proposed the novel Gentle Driving of Piles (GDP) method which aims to enhance traditional axial vibro-pile driving by incorporating high-frequency torsional vibrations [9]. The addition of torsional vibrations is expected to consume/redirect soil frictional resistance and limit radial expansion during pile driving, resulting in faster and quieter installation – the GDP shaker is presented in Figure 1.a.
 To demonstrate the GDP technology and compare its performance with traditional pile-driving methods (impact pilling and axial vibratory driving), comprehensive medium-scale field tests were conducted in an inhomogeneous sand deposit at the Port of Rotterdam. Eight identical test piles with a diameter of 0.762 m and an embedded length of 8 m were installed using impact hammering, traditional axial vibratory piling, and the GDP method. Out of the eight test piles, four were heavily instrumented out of which two were GDP-driven, and the remaining two were installed with impact pilling (IH) and axial vibro-driving (VH).
 The tests performed on the four main test piles consisted of two stages: the first stage focused on driving performance, while the second stage examined the cyclic lateral behaviour of the piles under repeated loading for different installation methods -cyclic loading programme in Figure 1.b. The test results highlighted the promise of the method towards faster (Figure 1.c.) and less perturbing pile driving [1,9,13] but also enhanced post-installation lateral response [5,6,7] compared to the traditional alternative installation methods (Figure 1.d.).

Improvement and application on the estimation model of windbreak and sand fixation function based on remote sensing soil moisture factor

Soil moisture factor is one of the important parameters in the study of wind and sand fixation functions of ecosystems. Traditional methods often use potential evaporation, rainfall, and irrigation observed by meteorological stations to estimate soil moisture, which has significant limitations in terms of spatial continuity and data availability. Based on the development of remote sensing technology in soil moisture detection, we selected four remote sen-sing indicators for soil moisture (MODIS evapotranspiration ratio method, SMAP soil moisture ratio method, visible shortwave infrared drought index method, and remote sensing humidity index method) to improve the estimation of soil moisture factor in the modified wind erosion equation model (RWEQ), and used the improved algorithm to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of wind prevention and sand fixation services in the northwest region of Liaoning Province from 2001 to 2021. The results showed that the MODIS evapotranspiration ratio method had the highest correlation with traditional meteorological methods in calculating soil moisture. The formula obtained by fitting the two could be used to improve the calculation of soil moisture factor in the RWEQ model. From 2001 to 2021, the wind prevention and sand fixation capacity in the northwest region of Liaoning Province showed strong spatial distribution characteristics in the northern and eastern regions, while weak in the central and western regions. According to Mann-Kendall trend testing, 72.7% of the regions in northwest Liaoning Province were showing an upward trend in their ability to prevent wind and fix sand. The application of geographic detector models for driving factor analysis showed that the change in wind and sand fixation capacity was a process of multiple factors interacting with each other, greatly influenced by soil type, annual wind speed, and economic development level. Moreover, the interaction between various driving factors had a higher impact on wind and sand fixation than that of single factors. The results could improve the RWEQ model estimation and provide technical support for the long-term analysis of ecological function formation mechanisms and driving forces in the northwest region of Liaoning.

Mitigation of assembly constraints for floating offshore wind turbines using discrete event simulation

There is a large and increasing pipeline of floating offshore wind projects with total global floating offshore wind capacity projected to grow year on year by, on average, between 59 and 104 % in the 2020s. This will lead to competition for infrastructure resources, in particular, port facilities for the construction and marshalling of the floating foundations and turbines. It is likely that multiple ports will need to be combined to provide the necessary fabrication capacity for a floating offshore wind farm of commercial scale. To enable an efficient and coordinated utilisation of multiple fabrication ports, it is crucial to understand the likely duration of different assembly and construction activities at different locations. However, at present this task is difficult to perform using top-down estimation models, as commercial-scale floating offshore wind farms comprising many tens of units have not been built to date. In this work we present a methodology, based on discrete event simulation (DES) and time series analysis, to produce an explicit simulation-based estimate of assembly activity durations, which are sensitive to setting specific factors. Three example case studies are outlined to demonstrate the ability to capture the variation in activity duration due to resource availability, and the season and location of activity. The methodology will be of use to project planners as it can be used at an early stage in the project life-cycle to appraise and adopt different construction strategies.

Economic feasibility study for continued operation of German offshore wind farms

With a large number of wind farms already deployed in German waters and aiming to achieve a minimum of 70 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2045, investigating the potential for extended operation of existing assets is an important task. This paper documents the development of a life cycle cost/revenue framework capable of incorporating CAPEX and OPEX related elements, revenue factors, and deployment location specific aspects, in order to support decisions on the business case for continued operation beyond the nominal service life. The framework called ELSA (Economic Life cycle Simulation and Assessment) is applied to a cumulative scenario which classifies all existing offshore wind farms in Germany with respect to size and key dimensions. Outcomes of the analysis support the case for extended operation, while highlighting the importance of wake effects to AEP, the magnitude and variability of O&M costs and finally the influence of CAPEX and financial modelling.

Long-Term Forecasting Framework for Renewable Energy Technologies’ Installed Capacity and Costs for 2050

Published forecasts underestimate renewable energy capacity growth and potential cost reductions, creating uncertainty around investment decisions and slowing progress. Scenario-based projections diverge widely, driven by variations in modelling techniques and underlying assumptions, with policy-based models typically being overly conservative. With historical generation capacity and cost data readily available, this research demonstrates that data-driven approaches can be leveraged to improve long-term capacity and cost forecasts of solar, wind, and battery storage technologies. Unlike exponential growth models prevailing over shorter time scales, logistic curves requiring asymptotic limits, or machine learning algorithms dependent on extensive datasets, this analysis demonstrates that temporal quadratic regressions are a better starting point to represent capacity growth trends over two to three decades. When coupled with published learning rates, trend-based capacity forecasts provided tighter and lower capital and levelized cost of energy outlooks than most reviewed scenarios, with photovoltaics global average levelized cost of energy reducing from 0.057/kWh to below USD 0.03/kWh by 2030 and below USD 0.02/kWh by 2040. Greater transparency on manufacturing ecosystems is proposed so that more advanced analytical techniques can be utilized. This analysis indicates that without direct interventions to accelerate the growth in wind power generation, global renewable energy technology deployment will fall short of the generation capacities required to meet climate change objectives.

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. This study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

The role of global installed wind energy in mitigating CO2 emission and temperature rising

As a key component in mitigating global warming and achieving sustainable development strategies, wind power has received widespread attention and support from governments around the world. Numerous countries are engineering ambitious programs to map and project the mitigation potential of wind energy expansion to combat future global warming. Here, using the global installed wind capacity data, we identity that a total of 837 GW of wind energy installed capacity (WEIC) in 31 countries generated about 2186 TWh of electricity, that is 1311 Mt of CO2 mitigation, in 2021. Considering power mix transformation, wind power could account for more than 30% of total global electricity generation by the mid-21st century, when many countries expect to realize carbon neutrality, and could reduce CO2 emission up to 14871 Mt by 2050 and 32864 Mt by 2100. Meanwhile, the global phenomenon of the future southward shift of wind energy resources makes the wind energy development in low-latitude countries, such as Brazil, Vietnam, and Central African, more confident. Combined with the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), we find that the mitigation benefits of wind energy expansion are significant and will directly reduce global warming by up to 0.64 °C by the end of the century (NZE deployment scenario, SSP3-7.0). For China and the United States, the share of renewable energy will reach 78% and 84% by 2050 (APS scenario) and the cumulative climate mitigation by wind power will be 0.12 °C and 0.11 °C during 2020–2100, respectively. The findings strongly support the development and practice of global climate mitigation energy solutions.

High renewable electricity penetration: Marginal curtailment and market failure under “subsidy-free” entry

Ambitious plans to decarbonize electricity will require high levels of variable renewable electricity (VRE). At high VRE penetration, the surplus that cannot be exported must be curtailed (spilled). The last MW of wind capacity will be curtailed 3＋times more hours than the average, but even in efficiently designed markets, price signals for VRE investment are given by average, not marginal, curtailment, creating a “tragedy of the commons” that requires a corrective charge to restore efficiency. The paper sets out an analytical model calibrated to Ireland in 2026, showing the source of this distortion and estimates of its magnitude.

The properties of the global offshore wind turbine fleet

Offshore wind capacity increased massively in recent years. Sufficient wind potential must be available to realize the ambitious goals regarding further wind capacity expansion. Thus, the goal of this study is to quantify the meteorological, geographical, and technical properties of the current global offshore wind turbine fleet. The offshore wind turbine fleet is classified by twelve factors that belong to meteorological, geographical, and technical factor categories. A comprehensive wind turbine site dataset is evaluated, including 5473 sites in Europe and 3404 in Asia. The factors at the wind turbine sites are derived using publicly available datasets, including a reanalysis wind speed dataset, geodata, and technical properties. The results of this study are that the global median (1) wind speed is 8.7 m/s, (2) water depth is 17 m and (3) distance to shore is 27 km. The distance to the nearest wind turbine is 5.1 times the rotor diameter. The factors studied have a high regional variability. While Asian offshore wind turbines operate in shallower water closer to the shores than European, European wind turbine sites provide higher wind resources. The regional differences indicate that the wind potential and wind turbine siting criteria differ depending on the country. The factor values obtained are reference values for future offshore wind resource assessments and estimates of the wind potential from a regional to global scale.

New concept of renewable energy priority zones for efficient onshore wind and solar expansion

The intensification of climate change impacts requires a fast and efficient transition of energy systems and deployment of renewable energies worldwide. An adequate site assessment strategy forms the basis for expanding installed capacities and energy yield. This study applies a set of meaningful criteria to determine site suitability for Germany's onshore wind and utility-scale solar photovoltaics facilities. An aggregated priority index involving meteorological-technical, economic, and environmental criteria is developed and used in a new concept for identifying renewable energy priority zones, where installations of wind and solar energy facilities should be prioritized. As a novelty, this resource-centered approach does not only analyze the mean energy potential as a meteorological criterion but also accounts for other characteristics such as variability, complementarity, and predictability. The results indicate that reducing legal restrictions substantially facilitates wind and solar energy capacity expansion in prioritized zones. With weak restrictions, up to 22% and 12% of Germany represent priority zones for an efficient and sustainable use of solar and wind energy. However, due to the intermittent nature of wind and solar resources, mismatches between generation potential and electricity demand would persist even with substantial capacity expansion. Future energy systems must advance the expansion of renewable energy capacities just as the flexibilization of demand or an increase of storage capacities to guarantee future energy security and mitigate climate change. The newly developed renewable energy priority zones are a starting point and can be transferred to other study areas by specifically adapting criteria and their weighting.

Statistical modelling of dependence between net demands and deficits in two area power systems

Power system resource adequacy risks is dominated by the extremes of the relevant distributions or processes: the upper tail of demand and the lower tail of available generation. Because of this, relevant data in the historic record are sparse. Moreover, for interconnected systems, the degree of statistical dependence in these extremes between systems can also have a sizeable impact on the level of risk in each system. This paper uses results from statistical extreme value theory (EVT) to fit smoothed joint distributions for the values of (demand minus available renewables) and of surplus/deficit dependence in a two-area system, using data from the Irish and Great Britain power system for examples.As well as the statistical smoothing mitigating the consequences of limited volumes of data, the concept of asymptotic dependence provides a useful explanation of the strength of dependence. There is strong evidence that the deficits in the GB and Ireland systems are asymptotically independent, whereas there is evidence for asymptotic dependence in the distributions of (demand minus available wind capacity). This is consistent with the intuition that, when independent distributions of conventional capacity are convoluted with those of demand and wind, the dependence is weakened. The consequent use of a Gaussian copula to describe the dependence of deficits provides a convenient means of carrying out sensitivity analysis to the strength of relationship.

Static wind imaging Michelson interferometer for the measurement of stratospheric wind fields.

The stratospheric wind field provides significant information on the dynamics, constituent, and energy transport in the Earth's atmosphere. The measurement of the atmospheric wind field on a global basis at these heights is still lacking because few wind imaging interferometers have been developed that can measure wind in this region. In this paper, we describe an advanced compact static wind imaging Michelson interferometer (SWIMI) developed to measure the stratospheric wind field using near-infrared airglow emissions. The instrument contains a field widened and thermal compensated interferometer with a segmented reflective mirror in one arm, which replace the moving mirror in a conventional Michelson interferometer, to provide interference phase steps. The field widened, achromatic, temperature compensated scheme has been designed and manufactured. The characterization, calibration, inversion software, and test of the instrument have been completed. The capacity of two-dimensional wind, temperature, and ozone measurement of the instrument has been verified in the lab experiment and model simulation. What we believe to be the novel principle, modeling, design, and experiment demonstrated in this paper will offer a significant reference to the static, simultaneous and real-time detection and inversion of the global wind field, temperature, and ozone.

Wind resource droughts in China

With the rising share of wind energy in power generation, the occurrence of low-wind-power events (termed ‘wind resource droughts’) are becoming critical in understanding the national electricity supply and the security of power systems. We use hourly wind speed data (2428 meteorological stations; in the years 2010–2020) to analyze the occurrence of wind resource droughts in seven onshore wind energy planning regions over China. We find that wind resource droughts tend to occur in warm season (summer and autumn) in most regions (i.e., Northeast China, East China, Central China, South China and Tibetan Plateau). In these regions, the number of moderate wind resource drought events (wind capacity factor below 10%) in the warm season (summer and autumn) was about 3–13 times higher than in the cold season (spring and winter). By contrast, for North China and Northwest China, the wind resource droughts mainly occurred in the autumn and winter. Averaged over 11 years, Northeast China experienced the most moderate wind resource droughts with 30 d yr−1, while Northwest China had only 1 d yr−1. Some of these wind resource drought events occurred consecutively, in which Northeast China experienced nine wind resource drought events that lasted for at least five days (where the longest reached 9 d) across the 11 years from 2010 to 2020; North China and South China exhibited one five-day wind resource drought events; while Northwest China, East China, Central China and Tibetan Plateau had none. Moreover, we found that increasing the aggregated area of wind resource can reduce the volatilities of wind energy. Therefore, improving the cross-regional transmission capacity can substantially help reduce the number of wind resource drought events. These findings should assist decision-makers to establish the counterplan to mitigate the energy shortages and instability in power supply caused by the uncertainty of wind resource droughts.

The impact of large-scale thermal energy storage in the energy system

In the last decade, pit thermal energy storage (PTES) systems have been used as a large-scale heat storage solution in district heating systems due to their low specific investment cost and high storage efficiency. Despite the existing knowledge on thermal energy storage (TES) technologies, their economic and environmental impacts have not been quantified in the literature, and very few studies have studied PTES as part of the energy system. For this reason, the energy system model Balmorel was used to quantify the impact of TES on the energy system, particularly PTES, and compare it to the tank thermal energy storage (TTES) alternative. The investigation was focused on Denmark and its neighboring countries. It was found that it was only the energy systems using TES that could achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The main reason was the added flexibility due to the energy storage that allowed the system to have a 35% higher PV capacity, 10% higher wind capacity, and lower levels of curtailment. Additionally, systems with TES had 2.4 €/MWh lower average heat price (with 24% lower peak price). When comparing PTES with TTES, it was found that PTES systems were more advantageous, achieving a 1.5 €/MWh lower average price of heat.

Optimal Capacity Configuration of Wind–Solar Hydrogen Storage Microgrid Based on IDW-PSO

Because the new energy is intermittent and uncertain, it has an influence on the system’s output power stability. A hydrogen energy storage system is added to the system to create a wind, light, and hydrogen integrated energy system, which increases the utilization rate of renewable energy while encouraging the consumption of renewable energy and lowering the rate of abandoning wind and light. Considering the system’s comprehensive operation cost economy, power fluctuation, and power shortage as the goal, considering the relationship between power generation and load, assigning charging and discharging commands to storage batteries and hydrogen energy storage, and constructing a model for optimal capacity allocation of wind–hydrogen microgrid system. The optimal configuration model of the wind, solar, and hydrogen microgrid system capacity is constructed. A particle swarm optimization with dynamic adjustment of inertial weight (IDW-PSO) is proposed to solve the optimal allocation scheme of the model in order to achieve the optimal allocation of energy storage capacity in a wind–hydrogen storage microgrid. Finally, a microgrid system in Beijing is taken as an example for simulation and solution, and the results demonstrate that the proposed approach has the characteristics to optimize the economy and improve the capacity of renewable energy consumption, realize the inhibition of the fluctuations of power, reduce system power shortage, and accelerate the convergence speed.

Transient modeling of a green ammonia production system to support sustainable development

Wind power intermittency makes it imperative to conduct transient modeling to highlight and address the challenges related to longer-term dynamics prior to demonstration projects. This paper presents the transient modeling and simulation of offshore wind energy integrated with a “green hydrogen” and “green ammonia” synthesis system. Since the transmission of electricity produced from far offshore sites to onshore points is challenging and submarine power cables are a significant cost, a fully off-grid offshore location is proposed for green ammonia production (power-to-ammonia) in contrast to previous studies that have examined grid-tied approaches. This approach can utilize the massive unexploited potential of remote offshore locations where wind velocities and capacity factors are comparatively higher, with produced green ammonia transported to onshore demand points via pipelines or ships. The offshore wind energy can directly be converted into ammonia using water and air as input materials, starting with the generated wind power used in the water electrolysis system to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Nitrogen is separated by an air separation unit and mixed with the hydrogen to produce ammonia through an all-electric ammonia synthesis system. The transient analysis results include ammonia production at each hour of the year and an integrated hydrogen storage system to buffer production for nominally steady ammonia ouput throughout the year. An economic analysis is also conducted that reveals offshore wind and electrolysis as the leading cost drivers.

Decarbonization of the electricity generation sector and its effects on sustainability goals

The substitution of fossil fuels, especially coal, with renewable energy is a crucial step for the CO2 emissions reduction and the avoidance of Global Climate Change. The electric power generation industry is the first economic sector that will have to transition to renewable energy. However, wind and solar energy, the two most abundant renewable energy forms, are not dispatchable. The high penetration of these renewables in the energy market will create a demand–supply mismatch, which can only be alleviated with large-scale energy storage. This paper uses the case of Texas—a state that generates and consumes more electricity than several large, industrialized nations—to quantitatively examine the required infrastructure for the decarbonization of the electricity generation industry, while satisfying the current electric power demand in the State. Among the parameters that are examined are: the additional solar and wind capacity; the necessary energy storage infrastructure; the energy dissipation in the storage/regeneration process; and the effect of decarbonization on the cost of electricity and the welfare of the citizens. The computations show that the technology is available for the transition to a decarbonized electric power sector but requires significant investment in new wind and photovoltaic units as well as substantial energy storage. This would increase the electricity prices by a factor between 2.9 and 3.7 and, would have a disproportionate impact on the citizens in the lower income brackets.

Evaluating emission reduction potential at the “30-60 Dual Carbon targets” over China from a view of wind power under climate change

Large-scale wind energy development is one of the main paths to achieving China's carbon peak and neutrality goals. How will the wind power and corresponding carbon abatement potential (CAP) in China change when China reaches the timing of its reduction carbon targets? This issue has not been well addressed. In this paper, a weighted multi-model ensemble with 14 global climate models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is used to evaluate the spatio-temporal characteristics of wind speed over China during the baseline period (2004–2014). Then, we further analyze the changes in wind power and corresponding CAP due to the climate change over China in the two-level years (2030 and 2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show that the wind capacity factor over China will have a trend of decreasing in most regions of China and increasing in the southeast in 2060. Overall, climate change will have a slight impact on the CAP of wind power in 2030, with an increase in some southern provinces. However, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in most regions of China in 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Liaoning, by more than 5 %. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the CAP will decrease significantly in the southwest and northwest regions, such as Sichuan and Qinghai, by 9.86 % and 8.19 % respectively. Central and South provinces such as Hunan and Hubei will increase by about 5 %. In terms of seasonal changes, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in summer under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (about −5.24 %) and SSP5-8.5 scenario (about −6.50 %).These findings can help policymakers make decisions as they establish plans for wind power expansion while taking the effects of climate change into account as they work toward China's carbon neutrality goal.