Wheat Prices Research Articles

Rising food prices and poverty in Pakistan.

An upsurge in global food prices in 2008 led to significantly higher food prices across the developing world. Global commodity prices have since declined but still remain volatile, but at the same time local food prices remain high in many countries. This study examines the potential impacts of the rise in food prices on poverty-income based poverty and calorie-based poverty- focusing on Pakistan, and its rural and urban areas. For this purpose, we used HIES data collected in three waves 2005-06, 2007-08 and 2010-11. Price elasticities are computed using binary Logistic regression method. The study results show that price of wheat, rice, milk, meat, fruit, pulses appear to distinguish the status of a household. Price elasticities shows that urban households are hit harder than rural households in calorie-poverty model. Overall, rising food prices are likely to lead higher poverty in Pakistan, as the negative impact on net consumers outweighs the benefits to producers. Therefore, effective strategy for eliminating poverty is far more concerned with price increases. Safety net programs can be more effective, but geographic targeting and other investments to strengthen safety nets are necessary to ensure that fewer people are affected by future crises. Government policies oriented towards relieving the food price pressure on the Pakistani poor should aim at lowering the prices of wheat, rice, eggs, oil, milk, and chicken.

The Relationship between MSP of Wheat and Domestic Market Price with the Wheat Export of India: An ARDL Approach

The paper studies the long-run and short-run relationships between the minimum support price (MSP) of wheat and the export of wheat from India and between the domestic market price and the Indian export of wheat using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method for the period of 2002 to 2019. The weighted average price (WAP) of wheat is taken as a proxy for the domestic market price at the national level. The empirical result suggests that there is no significant long-run and short-run relationship between MSP and domestic market price on the level of wheat exports in India. To a certain extent, the present level of exports of wheat is explained by the previous year's export level. Any disruption in the long-run equilibrium is corrected by nearly 40% per year. So the results suggest that other explanatory variables determining wheat export need to be addressed carefully to gain a large share in the international wheat market.

Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels

Financial markets are frequently exposed to a variety of crises at the national, regional, and global levels, with potentially heterogeneous effects on market performance. To make sound investment and policy choices, investors and policymakers are constantly concerned about the market's behavior during such times of extreme stress. This article explores the impact of the two recent crises—the Russian–Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic—on equity markets using Karavias et al.’s (2022) panel data approach and daily data from January 2020 to April 2022. Unlike conventional panel data models, this novel technique assesses the presence and location of common structural breaks across the studied countries while accommodating unobserved heterogeneity and panel dependency. We hypothesize that the conflict's impact on global equity markets is heterogeneous and based on countries' economic-political connection or proximity to the war zone, notably among sanctioning countries (the G7) and non-sanctioning countries (the Russia-China-India triple or RIC). Our results suggest that the G7's financial markets are more sensitive to country-specific macroeconomic factors and commodity price changes during extreme market stress than those of the RIC triad. Moreover, the war has a stronger influence on the G7 stock markets through commodity prices, with a greater impact of natural gas and wheat prices for this group. These findings are consistent with the fact that markets in developed economies with an extreme reliance on commodities are more sensitive to crises and international conflicts.

Impacts of the war on prices of Ukrainian wheat

Impacts of the war on prices of Ukrainian wheat

Türkiye’de Bitkisel Ürünlerin Üretici Fiyatı Anomalileri

Currently, some studies on food consumer price anomalies are being conducted in Turkey and other countries. However, the research on crop products producer price anomalies is limited. The purpose of this paper is to identify producer price anomalies for selected crop products in Turkey over the last ten years (2013-2022) using quarterly and annual Compound Growth Rates (CGR) of the monthly price level, which allows for price monitoring after accounting for the effects of seasonality and inflation on prices, making it an ideal way to use prices as the basis of an early warning indicator. According to the results, moderately or abnormally high prices were measured in all years except for 2015. Sunflower, sugar beet, potatoes and pistachio were the crop products abnormally high prices were measured more than one year in this period. Abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2014 and 2021 at most. And, no abnormally high prices were measured in the years of 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022. When the last three year situations of crop products with moderately or abnormally high producer prices were examined, wheat and maize were the crops with moderately high prices, and sunflower and sugar beet were the crops with abnormally high prices in 2020. In 2021, only the price of wheat was moderately high; cotton, maize, and barley were the crops with abnormally high prices. No abnormally high prices were measured in 2022, and the prices of wheat, cotton, tomatoes, maize, and potatoes were moderately high.

Effect of public stockholding on wheat price dynamics in India: A quantile autoregression approach

AbstractThe study investigates the effects of public stockholding on price dynamics and volatility in the Indian wheat market. A quantile autoregression method is used as a flexible representation of price dynamics and is based on a reduced‐form methodology. The findings reveal that public stockholdings have significant price effects, but the results vary significantly in price distribution. Further, we show local dynamic stability in the price distribution for all quantiles. However, dynamic adjustments tend to be qualitatively different across stockholding regimes, suggesting that price stability becomes less pronounced when stocks are low. Given the limitation of public stockholding in smoothing price fluctuations over time and the program's high costs, our analysis highlights the need to explore other alternative mechanisms such as trade, for example, in achieving stability in food prices.

Factors Affecting Food Prices in Pakistan

The purpose of the study is to identify the factors affecting food prices in Pakistan. The findings reveal that there is a negative and significant impact of the real effective exchange rate on wheat prices in the long run. Similarly, the real interest rate affects wheat and rice prices indirectly, while it has a direct impact on tea prices. There is a positive and significant impact of international crude oil prices and international food prices on most food commodities. Moreover, the study explains that in the long run, the increase in local production significantly reduces the prices of food commodities. It is also found that the government policy of adjusting (increasing) wheat support prices also has a positive and significant impact on wheat prices.

Impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global wheat market

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 has caused significant disruption to global agricultural markets. As Ukraine is the world's ninth largest producer and fifth largest exporter of wheat, the widespread, destructive effects of the war have serious implications for food prices and global food security. We analyze the impacts of this war on production, consumption, trade, and prices of wheat using a global spatial equilibrium model (SEM). Our results suggest that this conflict causes wheat prices to increase in every country (by around 2%) except Ukraine where prices fell by about 27%. Though other wheat exporting countries augment their exports to capture the market share lost by Ukraine in major importing countries, many of these importing countries suffer from reduced wheat consumption. Not surprisingly, Russia benefits by exporting wheat at the expense of Ukraine to importing countries that traditionally relied on Ukrainian wheat. Because of the war, we estimate that Ukraine's wheat producers experience a $1.4 billion loss in producer surplus.

Market Arrivals and Price Behavior of Wheat in Major Markets of India

Behaviour of prices of agricultural commodities results from the basic characteristics of agricultural sector and farm products. This study is based on the secondary data of 15 years from 2007-08 to 2021-22 which was collected from www.agmarknet.gov.in. For the analytical framework, the linear trend equation was used to study the trend in arrivals and prices. During the study period, the pattern of trend in arrivals and prices was differed across the selected markets. All the selected market for wheat showed increasing trend in arrivals and prices over the years. The per annum increase in the arrivals of wheat in Lakhimpur market was the highest at 1884.86 quintals followed by Vidisha, Baran, Dewas, Kota and Agra markets at 1394.74, 942.65, 782.61, 389.19 and 56.53 quintals respectively. The quantum of increase in the arrivals of wheat might be due to the increased production in these regions. Increased productivity and arrivals was attributable to introduction of high yielding varieties, technological advancement, increased demand for wheat in the international market, prices lead to better productivity realization by farmers in the surrounding hinterlands of Lakhimpur, Vidisha, Baran and Dewas area and supplied to these markets. Market arrivals registered lowest quantum of increase in Agra and Kota markets. The lowest quantum of increase in arrivals of wheat might be due to increasing heat stress, other problems experienced by producers in production level and shift in cropping pattern of the farmers towards other commercial crops in those regions. Seasonal indices of arrivals and prices of wheat in selected markets revealed that when the arrivals of wheat to the market were high, the prices were found to be low i.e., March to June. Seasonal price indices of wheat indicate that the price realized by farmers was low during the post- harvest month. Hence, infrastructural facilities like warehouses and market extension services have to be strengthened for encouraging and bringing awareness among the farming community about the availability of warehouses and marketing credit to reap the better benefits.

Fat tails, serial dependence, and interlinkages of the geopolitical risk and food market during the COVID-19 pandemic and war crisis: an application of Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregressions.

We investigate fat tails and network interconnections of geopolitical risk index and food prices, including the price of corn, rice, and wheat, using seven Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregression fashions. This paper differentiates dynamically between network interlinkages between these variables during the short, medium, and long runs. We found some noteworthy results in our study. In the first place, network interlinkages exhibit remarkable differences over time. Interlinkages between variables in our designed networks are increased in the short, medium, and long term due to transient events occurring in markets during the studied period. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the long-term ties within the system are more significantly impacted. Additionally, based on net-directional linkages, each market's role shifts (from sending to receiving shock and vice versa) during the pre- and post-Ukraine-Russia conflict, whereas these roles persist during the COVID-19 pandemic. Observations of short- and medium-term trends reveal that the geopolitical risk index is shock receivers transmitted to these markets by the rice and corn markets. The results indicate that the geopolitical risk index persists as shock receivers in terms of long-horizon measures.

ЗЕРНОВИЙ ЕКСПОРТ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

Досліджено шляхи і проблеми зернового експорту України в умовах війни. Основними шляхами відновлення експорту зерна є «смуги солідарності» Україна – ЄС і Чорноморська зернова ініціатива. Проте ці заходи лише частково вирішили проблему експорту зерна з України у 2022 – на початку 2023 р. У 2022 р. відбулося зменшення обсягів експорту українського зерна на 32,6 % порівняно з обсягами попереднього року. Повномасштабна воєнна агресія РФ проти України спричинила різке зростання світових цін на пшеницю, а започаткування «смуг солідарності» й морського зернового коридору посприяли їх суттєвому зниженню, зокрема на зерно. Проте вітчизняні виробники зерна і експортери не змогли скористатися зростанням світових цін на зерно у 2022 р. через збільшення транспортних видатків при перевезенні до портів, зростання маржі посередників з урахуванням ризиків воєнного часу, підвищення вартості фрахту суден тощо. Відповідні втрати в ціні зерна при експорті з України перекладаються по зерновому ціновому ланцюгу переважно на нижню його ланку – виробника зерна. Частка виробника (на умовах EXW) у експортній ціні пшениці 2-го класу зменшилася з 80 % на початку дії морського зернового коридору до 67 % при експорті морським зерновим коридором у лютому 2023 р. Серйозні ризики для повоєнного відновлення українського експорту зерна становлять процеси релокації торговельних потоків на традиційних ринках експорту зернових з Чорноморського регіону, пов’язані, насамперед, із заміщенням українського зерна російським. Розвитку українського зернового експорту сприяло б максимальне дистанціювання від РФ у торговельній політиці щодо експорту продукції у межах Чорноморського регіону за рахунок залучення до торговельних потоків Середземноморського регіону з використанням конвенції щодо правил походження Пан-Євро-Мед.

Impact of Total Expenses & Labor on the Value of Wheat with a Special Reference to Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract: The framework for sustainable development consists of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs comprise objectives, benchmarks, and measures for combating poverty, guaranteeing food security, pursuing sustainable agriculture, protecting the environment, encouraging peace, and other issues. One of the most important areas of the Indian economy is agriculture, which provides a living for over 70% of the country's population. In addition, there aren't many job opportunities in other sectors. As a result, it is necessary to study the agriculture sector from the standpoint of sustainable development and make some suggestions for its improvement. This paper develops a statistical regression model to estimate the value of wheat. The study's findings imply that the government should take the required actions to increase farmers' access to funding and raise the standard of the educational programs, training resources, and extension services that are available to them. In order to raise the price of wheat and ultimately their profit, farmers should also invest more money in premium seeds and fertilizers.

Influencing factors analysis of corn price fluctuation in shaanxi province, CHINA

Corn is one of the most important grain crops in China, and also in Shaanxi Province. In order to master the changing law of corn market, realize reasonable regulation and control, and promote the stable development of the market, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the influencing factors of corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province. Based on the data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2021, in the present study, the main factors affecting the price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province was explored by using factor analysis method. Eight indexes including corn yield, production cost, disaster-affected area, disposable income of rural residents, disposable income of urban residents, corn demand, wheat price index and consumer price were selected as factors affecting corn price fluctuation. Results showed that the disaster area and corn demand were the main factors affecting the corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province, and the disposable income of urban and rural residents had little impact on the corn price fluctuation. Governments and industry groups can therefore take preventive measures to limit the impact of major climate events on corn markets and economies. It also assesses the appropriate proportion of corn used for feed and energy production to ensure adequate supply and stable prices. Bangladesh J. Bot. 52(2): 607-612, 2023 (June) Special

Influencing factors analysis of corn price fluctuation in shaanxi province, CHINA

Corn is one of the most important grain crops in China, and also in Shaanxi Province. In order to master the changing law of corn market, realize reasonable regulation and control, and promote the stable development of the market, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the influencing factors of corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province. Based on the data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2021, in the present study, the main factors affecting the price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province was explored by using factor analysis method. Eight indexes including corn yield, production cost, disaster-affected area, disposable income of rural residents, disposable income of urban residents, corn demand, wheat price index and consumer price were selected as factors affecting corn price fluctuation. Results showed that the disaster area and corn demand were the main factors affecting the corn price fluctuation in Shaanxi Province, and the disposable income of urban and rural residents had little impact on the corn price fluctuation. Governments and industry groups can therefore take preventive measures to limit the impact of major climate events on corn markets and economies. It also assesses the appropriate proportion of corn used for feed and energy production to ensure adequate supply and stable prices. Bangladesh J. Bot. 52(2): 607-612, 2023 (June) Special

The role of quality in the grain market: wheat prices formation in eighteenth-century Northern Italy

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of wheat quality in the formation of wheat prices in the early modern period, adopting eighteenth-century northern Italy as a case study. Wheat prices have been widely used by economic historians to calculate living standards, determine the degree of market integration, and date famines. Rarely, however, have economic historians focused on how wheat prices were determined. By looking at the wheat supply chain, we will try to make more visible the extent to which wheat quality was crucial in determining the value of wheat and, as a consequence, the final price of grain.

Impact of Russia-Ukraine War Crisis on Indian Economy

The war between the two neighboring countries, Russia and Ukraine, is a bleak blow to the world economy begetting sluggish growth and rapid inflation. Sanctions advocated on Russia due to the dissention beseem to have an impact on the Indian economy in particular and global economy in general through convulsion of supply chains. India has close ties with both the countries. During the retrieval way of economy from the pandemic, purported crunch in Ukraine and Russia which dispatch disparate commodities has posed novel challenges to India's economic resilience. Ukraine and Russia produce elephantine share of global exports of wheat. Discord between the countries definitely spawns prices of diesel, petrol, wheat, vegetable oils and many other commodities to skyrocket. Ineluctably, most of the Indians have curtailed fried food and even vegetables. Consumers sense the bite owing to price inflation. In the event of such menacing dilemma, this paper is a modest attempt to examine the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on Indian economy. The results of the study consummated through documentation review and critical approach, secondary data relevant to the context unveil slow Indian economic growth and development springing disruption to the parallel sanity of the international structure seesawing global and provincial geopolitical estimation. The paper broaches that clamant initiatives and recipes have to be shouldered by the civic society, particularly the leading states and non-state entities to heel a meteoric death to the extant Russia-Ukraine war.

Links between US and Turkish agricultural commodity Markets: Nonlinear dependence and tail risk

In these unprecedented times, marred by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, global warming, and the war in Ukraine that began in February 2022, new approaches such as tail dependence have attracted more interest than conventional market dependence methodologies in analyzing time series in order to evaluate market linkage. In this study, we use the tail-restricted integrated regression function (IRF), introduced as a new methodology for nonlinear tail-mean dependence analysis. The IRF approach has several advantages over the existing tail-dependence measures focused solely on the occurrence of single tail events. To examine market dependence and tail risk, we analyze the nexus between the US and Turkish agricultural commodity markets over the period January 5, 2016–May 31, 2022. In addition to the daily prices of barley, corn, and wheat on agricultural commodity markets, we use Brent oil as a representative for the energy market, interest, and foreign exchange rates for financial markets as variables in our study. The results of upside and downside asymmetric risk spillovers show the direction of impact from the US agricultural market to the Turkish agricultural market. The findings suggest that, following the launch of a spot market in Türkiye, the launch of an agricultural commodity futures market will enhance the completeness and the link between the spot and derivatives markets there.

Wheat Farmers’ Perception of Constraints and Their Adaptive Capacity to Changing Demands in Egypt

Most of the approximately 105 million Egyptians depend on wheat in the form of baladi bread for their daily diet. Millions of smallholders along the River Nile have produced wheat for millennia; however, in more recent history, the wheat demand and supply ratio has dramatically changed. The first wheat imports in Egyptian history were in 1966. Today, domestic production meets only half of the wheat consumption, and Egypt has become the largest wheat importer in the world. Before the Russia–Ukraine war, 85% of the wheat imports to Egypt came from Russia and Ukraine. The war and the associated disruption of the wheat supply chains has put Egypt on the top list of so-called “developing countries highly threatened by food crises”. Against this backdrop, we analyzed decision-making factors and perceptions of wheat-producing smallholders in the Nile River Delta, the wheat basket of Egypt. The study draws on nine months of empirical fieldwork in the Nile River Delta. We employed a mixed approach to data collection, combining interviews and focus group discussions with smallholders, experts, and agriculture extension agents with transect walks and field observations. In total, 246 randomly selected wheat-growing smallholders were interviewed in four divisions in the Nile River Delta. Our findings show that the production of wheat by smallholders is highly influenced by system-immanent factors, such as subsistence need for home consumption and the presence and intensity of animal husbandry, as well as by external factors, such as the domestic prices for wheat determined by the government in each season and the time of the declaration of these prices. These factors affect smallholders’ decisions to increase or decrease their wheat cultivation area. However, the study also showed that the factors influencing farmers’ decisions to grow wheat or implement innovative practices vary across different areas within the same region. Smallholders struggle with poor access to fundamental production factors and are discontented with the low provision of extension and support services as well as poor market structures. These constraints act as disincentives for smallholders to produce (more) wheat. They need to be addressed and eliminated to increase domestic production and to reduce Egypt’s dependency on expensive and unreliable wheat imports.

Assessing the costs of ozone pollution in India for wheat producers, consumers, and government food welfare policies

We assess wheat yield losses occurring due to ozone pollution in India and its economic burden on producers, consumers, and the government. Applying an ozone flux-based risk assessment, we show that ambient ozone levels caused a mean 14.18% reduction in wheat yields during 2008 to 2012. Furthermore, irrigated wheat was particularly sensitive to ozone-induced yield losses, indicating that ozone pollution could undermine climate-change adaptation efforts through irrigation expansion. Applying an economic model, we examine the effects of a counterfactual, "pollution-free" scenario on yield losses, wheat prices, consumer and producer welfare, and government costs. We explore three policy scenarios in which the government support farmers at observed levels of either procurement prices (fixed-price), procurement quantities (fixed-procurement), or procurement expenditure (fixed-expenditure). In pollution-free conditions, the fixed-price scenario absorbs the fall in prices, thus increasing producer welfare by USD 2.7 billion, but total welfare decreases by USD 0.24 billion as government costs increase (USD 2.9 billion). In the fixed-procurement and fixed-expenditure scenarios, ozone mitigation allows wheat prices to fall by 38.19 to 42.96%. The producers lose by USD 5.10 to 6.01 billion, but the gains to consumers and governments (USD 8.7 to 10.2 billion) outweigh these losses. These findings show that the government and consumers primarily bear the costs of ozone pollution. For pollution mitigation to optimally benefit wheat production and maximize social welfare, new approaches to support producers other than fixed-price grain procurement may be required. We also emphasize the need to consider air pollution in programs to improve agricultural resilience to climate change.

Inference for the VEC(1) model with a heavy-tailed linear process errors*

This article studies the first-order vector error correction (VEC(1)) model when its noise is a linear process of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) heavy-tailed random vectors with a tail index . We show that the rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) related to the long-run parameters is n (sample size) and its limiting distribution is a stochastic integral in terms of two stable random processes, while the LSE related to the short-term parameters is not consistent. We further propose an automated approach via adaptive shrinkage techniques to determine the cointegrating rank in the VEC(1) model. It is demonstrated that the cointegration rank r 0 can be consistently selected despite the fact that the LSE related to the short-term parameters is not consistently estimable when the tail index . Simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed procedure in finite samples. Last, we use our techniques to explore the long-run and short-run behavior of the monthly prices of wheat, corn, and wheat flour in the United States.