Wheat Market Research Articles

Determinants of Wheat Market Outlet Choice of Cooperative Members: The Case of Hetosa District, Ethiopia

It is assumed that, agricultural cooperatives are solving members marketing problem. However, members were not properly used cooperatives as market outlet in the study area. The specific objectives of the study were to assess wheat market outlet choices and analyze factors that determine wheat market outlet choices of members. The survey research method was used to accomplish this. The primary data were collected from 134 randomly selected respondents. The secondary data specific to the study area were collected from documents and records of agricultural cooperatives. The data was analyzed using the descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. The analysis showed that only 23.10 % of sample respondents were selling their wheat produce through cooperatives where as 76.90 % were selling to other market outlet than cooperatives. The model showed that eight variables have a significant effect on the wheat market outlet choices of members. Those are education, dividend payment, quantity produced, access to training, access to extension service, market information, and trust on cooperatives, have a positive significant effect on wheat market outlet choices of members while mode of sell/payment system have a negative significant effect. Based on the study results, the following recommendation were given to choose cooperatives as a market outlet. Necessary training concerning the benefits of cooperatives in general and marketing in particular should be given to cooperatives by concerned body. There should be trust among members and cooperative leaders. Dividend must be paid based on the cooperative bylaws. Appropriate extension service must be given to cooperative members so as to increase the quantity of produces. In addition, providing marketing information timely is very crucial. Finally, mode of sell/payment system is advisable if it is on cash instead of paying on credit.

Determinants of Market Orientation of Smallholder Wheat Farmers in Northern Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, wheat is a market-oriented commodity although farmers are still producing this crop for consumption than for market, not based on the market information. The main objective of the study was to identify the determinants of market orientation of smallholder wheat farmers. The data were collected from 190 randomly selected sample households using structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and Tobit model were used for analyzing smallholder wheat farmers’ market orientation and its determinants. Descriptive statistics revealed that the average market orientation index of the sample wheat farmers was 10.69%, very low. The results of Tobit model revealed that land size, market access, wheat market experience, extension contact and equine owned were positively and significantly affecting market orientation of wheat whereas family size, total input cost and off/none farm income were significantly and negatively influencing market orientation. Therefore, designing an integrated policy and strategy on improving market access, provision of extensions mainly on market area and productivity of land for wheat while reducing the input cost would be suggested to improve market orientation of smallholder wheat farmers.

Integration of the Slovak and European wheat market

Integration of the Slovak and European wheat market

Measuring price discovery in the European wheat market using the partial cointegration approach

Abstract Understanding price discovery in agricultural spot and futures markets is important for market participants and policy makers, because it can contribute to better management decisions and more informed policy debates on market regulation. Combining partial cointegration with state space modelling, we generate time-varying price discovery metrics for the European wheat market that allow for shifts in the long-run relationship. We find that the futures market dominates price discovery in terms of efficiency, but that this dominance is reduced in phases of higher price volatility. We find evidence of persistent shocks in the long-run relationship between spot and futures prices that appear to be related to variations in the quality of the wheat harvest, and to the concatenation of the futures prices.

A comparative analysis of the wheat value chains in Hungary & Turkey

Besides being a crucial component of human nutrition, wheat has been one of the strategic commodities in the world economy since ancient times. Self-sufficiency in staple food production considered being an advantage for a country, thus many countries try to improve crop production technologies as well as whole supply chains to achieve sustainability. The wheat sector became more competitive with globalization and increased number of bilateral free trade agreements. Therefore, it is crucial to create an efficient wheat supply chain to achieve strong competitive power in international markets. Regarding wheat production, Hungary and Turkey ensure food security although they have different market structure and conditions. This study aims to investigate and provide a snapshot of how wheat sectors in Hungary and Turkey, focusing on basic stages of the wheat value chain such as production, processing, logistics and sales. The study mainly depends on statistical data with analysing them on the country level. The subject field is looking to investigate the main trends of the wheat market in Hungary and Turkey, also takes a glance of existing policies and how the government’s role in the wheat market differs.

Combining breeding traits and agronomic indicators to characterize the impact of cultivar on the nitrogen use efficiency of bread wheat

Nitrogen (N) is an essential compound for the production and grain quality of bread wheat, which must respect market requirements. Improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is a priority to better manage nitrogen for the benefit of farm economy and the environment. Among all the available levers to do this, the choice of the right cultivar is crucial. To this end, an accurate NUE cultivar characterization is needed both for breeding programmes and for agronomic extension services dedicated to advise farmers. These two fields of expertise (genetic and agronomy) do not share exactly the same protocols and indicators to assess the impact of cultivar on wheat NUE. Moreover, although some recent NUE genetic studies have been conducted on cultivars currently available in France, no recent NUE agronomic studies have been made on current French wheat cultivars. Moreover, the latest agronomic studies to date on cultivar effect on wheat N requirement (coefficient “b” used in France) were conducted without considering the need to reach a grain protein concentration of 11.5% (French bread wheat market requirement) in addition to the objective of achieving the yield potential. By using a classical agronomic protocol (network of 12 field trials over 3 years testing bread-wheat cultivars along a complete nitrogen response curve), the presented study aimed to address three specific NUE related topics by characterizing recent French cultivars with a large range of NUE indicators used by geneticists and/or agronomists. Firstly, we demonstrated that N rate and recent French cultivars had a significant effect on NUE and its components (nitrogen uptake efficiency – NupE and nitrogen utilization efficiency – NutE), as well as on apparent fertilizer recovery (AFR). Secondly, we showed that NupE and AFR were strongly correlated, allowing us to compare genetic studies (mainly using NupE) and agronomic studies (mainly using AFR) without any difficulty. Thirdly, we designed a set of new N requirement indicators (coefficients “bc” and “bq”) helping the farmer to grow each bread wheat cultivar with a dual objective of optimum yield and grain protein content in line with the market requirements. This could be achieved without significant impact on nitrogen post-harvest losses. The presented study provides a large set of results, usable for breeding and agronomic research programs.

МНОГОПАРАМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ И ОТНОСИТЕЛЬНОЕ ПРЕИМУЩЕСТВО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА УРОЖАЯ ПШЕНИЦЫ В РЕГИОНЕ ДЛЯ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ

The paper proposes a model for determining the relative advantage and forecasting the contribution to total production and reducing the deficit at the regional level, based on data and economic indicators for the period from 1995 to 2015. The main objective of this work is to predict future production trends in the regions, which are presented in order to improve land management, productivity, reduce agricultural waste and create a strategic stock of wheat to solve local supply problems. The study uses descriptive and statistical data analysis methods to achieve research objectives. Using linear trend analysis, growth rates of acreage, productivity, production and consumption of basic food crops are estimated. Using the adjusted coefficients of variation, that were proposed by Cuddy-Della Valle. The food problem is seen as an important strategic issue, that attracts close attention at all levels. Its importance stems from the political and social and economic aspects. The study is based on data from the Egyptian regions and has a strong regional focus. Geographically, Egypt is divided into four regions (areas of wheat cultivation). In this regard, we propose a conceptual approach to the study of the balance of regional production of food wheat within the framework of factors, affecting the food security of the regions (Figure 1). These stages are logically related to each other, since it is impossible to determine the prospects for the development of the domestic wheat market without analyzing its development within a certain retrospective period. Both of these stages imply a deep study of the wheat market, both on the basis of qualitative analysis methods and using quantitative analysis methods that make it possible to develop management decisions to ensure its balance.

Spatial market efficiency of grain markets in Russia: Implications of high trade costs for export potential

Using a threshold vector error correction model approach, we find the wheat market of Russia to be segmented, with the primary grain export region poorly integrated with the domestic market. Results also indicate that trade costs are high, hindering the spatial market efficiency of wheat markets in Russia. This study demonstrates that an empirical benchmark allows for a more comprehensive assessment of the spatial market efficiency compared to the theoretical benchmark that is normally applied. The study shows that the distinction between grain production and export potential, especially for markets located in peripheral regions of Russia, is essential to correctly identify Russia's future role for global food security. As a general conclusion, apart from increasing agricultural production potential, it is also essential to strengthen spatial market efficiency in the agricultural sector to boost Russia's agricultural export potential and the country's prominent role in global food security.

Determinants of Wheat Market Outlet Choice of Smallholder Farmers: The Case of Dembecha District, Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

Wheat is one of the major cereal crops produced in Ethiopia and used as food and source of cash for farm households. This study aimed identifying factors affecting market outlet choice of wheat farmers in Dembecha district of Ethiopia. A total of 130 farm households were used to collect primary data. About 48.5%, 62.3%, 71.5% and 51.2% of respondents had chosen wholesalers, collectors, cooperatives, and consumers outlets, respectively. The multivariate probit model used revealed the choice of wholesale’s outlet positively affected by educational level and quantity supplied; and negatively by family size and cooperative membership. The choice of collectors’ outlet is negatively affected by educational level and positively by quantity supplied; while choice of cooperative outlet is positively affected by extension contact and membership in cooperatives. Similarly, the choice of consumer outlet is positively affected by educational level, farming experience and extension service. It is, therefore, important to strengthen extension service, efficiently using resources, promoting cooperatives membership and farmers experience to assist farmers producing more and choose a more rewarding market outlet. Keywords: Market outlet choices, Multivariate probit, Smallholder, Wheat DOI : 10.7176/JPID/50-02 Publication date :June 30 th 2019

Food security and the functioning of wheat markets in Eurasia: a comparative price transmission analysis for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus

We investigated wheat price relationships between the import-dependent countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and the Black Sea wheat exporters to assess wheat market efficiency. This is crucial for ensuring availability and access to wheat and for reducing food insecurity. Results from linear and threshold error correction models suggested a strong influence of trade costs on market integration in Central Asia, while those costs were of minor importance in the South Caucasus. In particular, wheat trade in Central Asia is characterized by higher transportation costs but unofficial payments also play a large role. In addition, wheat price volatility is substantially higher in the wheat importing countries of Central Asia compared to the South Caucasus. To foster market functioning, wheat trade should be facilitated by policies that reduce the costs of trade. These include investments in grain market infrastructure, eliminating unofficial payments, and resolving geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, large distances characterize wheat trade in this region, low scope for import diversification and repeated export restrictions by Black Sea exporters. Therefore, trade-enhancing policies should be complemented with policies that increase wheat self-sufficiency in order to improve food security.

Wheat Production, Marketing and Consumption in Ethiopia

Wheat is beneficial to man long before the dawn of recorded history. Ethiopia is one of the largest wheat producers in sub-Saharan African next to South Africa. Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops grown in most parts of Ethiopia. It contributes to the major share of daily consumption and cash source. The purpose of this study was to realize the production trends, consumption and utilization patterns, market supply and distribution of wheat in Ethiopia. The review based on data obtained from the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), international agencies such as USDA, FAO and different international websites. The local production of wheat in Ethiopia failed to meet the increasing domestic demands of wheat and wheat products. The flour factories receive allocated amount of wheat grain on monthly basis at price set by the Government; mill it and sale to selected bakeries at pre-determined price. Thus, imported wheat through EGTE has distributed at subsidized price to flour factories which go through consumers to maintain price of bread affordable to low income groups especially in urban areas. The Ethiopian farm households consume about 60% of wheat produced; 20% is sold; and the remainder is used for seed, in- kind payments for labor, and animal feed. The wheat consumption trend in Ethiopia is gradually increasing in urban areas due to high population growth (about 2.6 % a year), migration of people to urban areas that increases in condominium living and changes in life styles and it accounts for about 11% of the national calorie intake in the country. The total consumption of wheat increased by 20 percent in recent years, making it the second most consumed cereal in Ethiopia after Maize. Keywords: Wheat Production, Marketing, Importing, Consumption, Ethiopia. DOI : 10.7176/JMCR/55-02 Publication date : April 30 th 2019

Impact of Agricultural Investments on World Wheat Market under Climate Change: Effects of Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System, and Development and Maintenance of Infrastructure

Impact of Agricultural Investments on World Wheat Market under Climate Change: Effects of Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System, and Development and Maintenance of Infrastructure

The sustainability of the interaction between Financial and commodity markets

Negli ultimi dieci anni il prezzo dei prodotti agricoli e stato soggetto ad ampie flut-tuazioni e ha visto incrementare la sua volatilita. Proprio la volatilita nel mercato delle commodities agricole ha destato grande interesse perche i prezzi dei prodotti alimentari influenzano il numero di persone che vi hanno accesso. Differenti studi circa le cause di queste fluttuazioni hanno raggiunto differenti conclusioni. Alcuni studiosi, seguendo l’ipotesi di Masters, hanno indicato l’incremento dell’attivita speculativa come la determinante di tali fluttuazioni. Altri, invece, si sono mostrati critici verso tale ipotesi indicandone i punti deboli. Nell’articolo seguente, si ana-lizza il mercato del grano, le differenti ipotesi che sono state formulate per spiegare le fluttuazioni dei prezzi e, implementando una analisi di regressione, si mostra come gli hedgers utilizzano i mercati a termine e le basi per ottenere margini di profitto e minimizzare i rischi.

Review on Market Chain Analysis of Wheat in Ethiopia

Wheat is an important industrial and food grain, which ranks second among the most important cereal crops in the world after rice, and traded internationally. The area coverage, production, and productivity of wheat is increasing from time to time steadily, and fluctuating as a result of population growth, changing food preferences and a strong urbanization trend. The main market participants of wheat are producers, processor, assembler, wholesaler, retailers, and consumers, financial institutions, governments, NGO. The market concentration ratio of wheat in Ethiopia is about 31.67%, which indicates the market structure is weakly competitive. Absence of license, lack of enough working capital, higher completion and lack of trading experience are the main barriers of entry in wheat market. The price of wheat produce in the market is determined by the farmer, market through negotiation, and traders. Traders used fair scale-weighing (81.2%), giving better price relative to others (8.24%), giving credit (7.06 %), and visiting their suppliers (3.53%) as a strategy to attract their suppliers. The average marketing cost, profit margin, TGMM and GMM of wheat is 162birr, 177.5 birr/quintal, 30.32% and 14.63% respectively. Shortage of capital, lack of credit access, lack of market information, involvement of cooperatives, presence of unlicensed traders, inadequate market infrastructure higher transportation cost are the main challenges of wheat market. Therefore, strengthening the licensed traders, building market infrastructure and improving access to wheat market information and credit for wheat market participants should be recommended. Key w ords: Wheat, Market, Market Chain, Marketing Margin DOI : 10.7176/IEL/9-1-02

Perceptions of wheat producers towards risk and risk management strategies: A case study from Turkey

ABSTRACT: In this study, risk perception of wheat producers in Turkey was examined based on a case study conducted in Bitlis Province. The data set used in the study was obtained from 157 farmers randomly. Factor analysis was employed to classify risk sources and management strategies, and then multiple regression was used to investigate the relationship between farmers perceptions and some characteristic. Results of this study have shown that economic-based risks were perceived more strongly by farmers. Farmers’ also used more than one risk management strategy to minimize the impact of the risks they face. So, in order to ensure social and economic sustainability and predictability in wheat production and wheat market, the government should be considered preventive policy instruments and interventions to prevent fluctuations in input and output prices.

Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets of China

We employ the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller test to examine whether there are multiple bubbles in Chinese agricultural commodities. The proposed approach is suitable for time series data and identifies the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. The results indicate the existence of bubbles for some agricultural commodity prices, such as garlic, ginger, corn, and wheat prices, that deviate from their intrinsic values upon market fundamentals. The bubbles in the garlic and ginger market are related to speculative activities. The other bubbles, in the corn and wheat market, are associated with the rising oil price, international market, and the negative effect of stockpiling policy. The authorities should recognize bubbles and observe their evolutions, leading to Chinese agricultural commodity price stabilization. These findings suggest corresponding measures to be implemented. China should establish a unified market information release platform to avoid speculative activities and formulate a market‐oriented agricultural policy to enhance competitiveness among the international markets.

Supply and Performance of Wheat Markets in Digelu-Tijo District of Oromia Region, Ethiopia

Analyzing the supply and performance of wheat markets for smallholder farmers need to improve their marketed surplus and initiate them for commercialization. The objective of this paper is to analyze the marketed surplus of wheat by smallholders farmers and to identify its underlying determinants. Two- stage sampling technique was used and a total of 123 smallholder farmers from five kebeles were randomly and proportionately sampled to collect both secondary and primary sources. The model results showed that six explanatory variables significantly affected the volume of wheat marketed by smallholder wheat producers. Family size, access to credit, off- farm income and livestock holding were negatively and significantly affecting supply. Oxen ownership and perception of farmers towards wheat market price were positively and significantly influence market supply. Based on the study policy interventions like family planning, awareness to farmers to supply wheat to the market when price is fair for them, awareness to farmers on rearing livestock besides farming agricultural crops, encouraging farmers to involve them self in both off-farming and farming activities to improve their livelihood

Understanding the Dependence Structure Between the Futures and Spot Prices of Wheat in Egypt

The aim of this article is to check the dependence structure for the futures-spot prices link of Egyptian wheat. Co-movements between prices are assessed by a GJR-GARCH model and semi-parametric copula estimation. Results suggest a positive futures-spot prices link, which becomes stronger the closer the markets are. Evidence of asymmetric behavior of the prices at times of extreme market situations is found. As a result, increases in wheat futures prices are expected to be passed to the Egyptian spot market, while the prices decline is not passed. This implies that the Egyptian wheat market cannot protect consumers against extreme international wheat price increases.

Potential impact of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change on Victorian wheat marketing grades and value

The potential impact of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and future climate predicted for 2050 on wheat marketing grades and grain value was evaluated for Victoria, Australia. This evaluation was based on measured grain yield and quality from the Australian Grains FACE program and commercial grain delivery data from Victoria for five seasons (2009–13). Extrapolation of relationships derived from field experimentation under elevated [CO2] to the Victorian wheat crop indicated that 34% of grain would be downgraded by one marketing grade (range 1–62% depending on season and region) because of reduced protein concentration; and that proportions of high-protein wheat grades would reduce and proportions of lower protein grades would increase, with the largest increase in the Australian Standard White (ASW1) grade. Simulation modelling with predicted 2050 [CO2] and future climate indicated reduced wheat yields compared with 2009–13 but higher and lower grain quality depending on region. The Mallee Region was most negatively affected by climate change, with a predicted 43% yield reduction and 43% of grain downgraded by one marketing grade. Using 2016 prices, the value of Victorian wheat grain was influenced mainly by production in the different scenarios, with quality changes in different scenarios having minimal impact on grain value.

Genomics Approach to Identify the Cause of the Missing Omega-5 Gliadin Protein in O-Free Wheat

A previous work developed and identified a new omega-5 gliadin deficient wheat line named O-free by crossing Keumkang and Olgeuru, which is nutritionally quite meaningful in that omega-5 gliadin is one of the known wheat allergens. To verify the characteristics of the O-free, we performed RNA sequencing (RNAseq) analysis of the O-free and the two parent lines (Keumkang and Olgeuru). The results of the similarity analysis with the ESTs for gliadins and glutenins showed that the O-free ESTs had no similarity with the omega-5 gliadin sequences but had similarity to other gliadins and glutenins. Furthermore, mapping results between the raw RNAseq data from the O-free and the omega-5 gliadin sequence showed a clear deletion of the N-terminal sequences which are an important signature of omega-5 gliadin. We also designed specific PCR primers that could identify omega-5 gliadin in the genomic DNA. The results showed that no omega-5 gliadin fragments were detected in the O-free. According to these results, we confirmed that the deficiency of omega-5 gliadin in the O-free is not caused by post-transcriptional or post-translational regulations such as epigenetic phenomena but by a simple deletion in the chromosome. Furthermore, we showed that the low-molecular weight glutenin subunit (LMW-GS) gene in the O-free had a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) causing a premature stop codon, resulting in a truncated polypeptide. We expect that the O-free line may serve as an excellent source of wheat that could prevail in the hypo-allergen wheat market, which has recently gained interest world-wide.