Wet Spring Research Articles

Litter decomposition rates of two grass species along a semi-arid grassland–forest ecocline

The climatic controls on decomposition rates have gained considerable interest in recent years because of a perceived risk that elevated global temperatures could lead to positive green house gas feedbacks from soil ecosystems. Previous relationships between decomposition rates and abiotic variables like temperature and moisture have been proved confounding, particularly for dryland ecosystems. Decomposition rates of two grass species, Pseudoroegneria spicata (Pursh) Á. Löve and Calamagrostis rubescens Buckley, which represent dominant understory cover at either end of a semi-arid grassland to forest ecocline near Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada, were measured. Despite differences in %N and C:N, decomposition rates between the two species were similar. Elevation was strongly correlated with rate of decomposition for both species. We provide evidence of a positive correlation of water availability and a negative correlation of temperature on decomposition rates along the elevational ecocline. Decomposition rates were higher during the wetter spring period than during summer, at higher elevations and in more mesic ecosystems. We found no ‘home-field’ advantage for P. spicata and C. rubescens on decomposition rates. Our results provide evidence that available moisture is an important control on decomposition rates in dryland ecosystems.

Seasonal reproduction in the eastern rock elephant‐shrew: influenced by rainfall and ambient temperature?

AbstractBecause environmental conditions vary seasonally in most regions, many small mammals reproduce at a specific time of the year to maximize their reproductive success. In the tropics and subtropics, the breeding season is usually determined by the extent of the dry and rainy seasons. We investigated the seasonality of reproduction in the eastern rock elephant‐shrew (Elephantulus myurus), over a 12‐month period and attempted to elucidate the factors that may influence seasonal reproduction in this endemic African mammal. E. myurus breeds seasonally during the warm and wet spring and summer months and cessation of breeding occurs during the cold and dry winter months of the southern hemisphere. Pregnant females were only collected from August through to January. Ovarian size and plasma progesterone started to increase a few months prior to the first rains, were highest in October and decreased thereafter. Follicular growth and corpora body numbers corresponded to this seasonal reproductive pattern. Testes and seminiferous tubule size and plasma testosterone concentration has already started to increase during the coldest months, 2 months prior to reproductive onset in females. We propose that seasonal reproduction evolved in E. myurus because of seasonally changing food availability brought about by severe seasonal changes in rainfall and ambient temperature. The direct effects of rainfall and ambient temperature on reproduction of E. myurus are ambiguous, and we discuss other environmental factors that may trigger reproductive onset in this species.

Canopy accession strategies and climate-growth relationships in Acer rubrum

A pervasive pattern of forest composition change is occurring throughout the Central Hardwood Forest of the eastern US. Acer rubrum has invaded the understory of Quercus stands across a variety of site types. The proliferation of A. rubrum, and that of other shade-tolerant mesophytes, inhibits the regeneration of Quercus. Without alterations in disturbance or climate regimes, composition in invaded stands is expected to shift towards A. rubrum dominance. Canopy accession strategies and climate-growth relationships of A. rubrum are critical factors in this successional shift. We quantified patterns of suppression and release during canopy accession, examined the relationships between climate variables and radial growth, and compared our findings for A. rubrum in an old-growth forest in Tennessee to other studies throughout the region to elucidate broad-scale patterns. The most common mode of A. rubrum canopy recruitment began with a tree originating in a gap followed by accession into the canopy without a period of suppression (61%). The remaining trees experienced a period of suppression before recruiting to the main canopy. A prominent establishment pulse occurred from the 1940s to the 1960s and 93% of trees that recruited to the canopy during this period established in gaps and were never suppressed. The mean age at canopy accession for individuals that experienced suppression was 24yr. The transition from suppression to release phases in radial growth trends was abrupt. The mean interseries correlation and the average mean sensitivity of the A. rubrum tree-ring chronology were comparatively high for the region. Acer rubrum individuals were most productive during cool, wet springs preceded by wet autumns and warm winters. Our results indicate that A. rubrum will remain competitive in the coming decades without a change in current disturbance regimes and the Quercus component will be difficult for managers to maintain in similar stands of the Central Hardwood Forest.

Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs

Increased summer heatwaves are a likely feature of future European climate. This study shows that wet previous seasons inhibit summer heat events, thus increasing seasonal predictability, but dry previous seasons do not, therefore decreasing seasonal predictability. Models suggest that a similar relation should hold in the future.

Understanding the effects of multiple sources of seasonality on the risk of pathogen spread to vineyards: vector pressure, natural infectivity, and host recovery

Seasonality plays an important role in the dynamics of infectious disease. For vector‐borne pathogens, the effects of seasonality may be manifested in the variability in vector abundance, vector infectiousness, and host‐infection dynamics over the year. The relative importance of multiple sources of seasonality on the spread of a plant pathogen, Xylella fastidiosa, into vineyards was explored. Observed seasonal population densities of the primary leafhopper vector, Graphocephala atropunctata, from 8 years of surveys in northern California were incorporated into a model of primary spread to estimate the risk of pathogen infection under different scenarios regarding seasonality in vector natural infectivity (i.e. constant or increasing over the season) and grapevine recovery from infection (i.e. none or seasonal recovery). The extent to which local climatic conditions affect risk estimates via differences in vector abundance was investigated. Seasonal natural infectivity, seasonal recovery, and especially the combination, reduced (up to 8‐fold on average) within‐season and cumulative yearly estimates of pathogen spread. Estimated risk of infection also differed greatly among years due to large differences in vector abundance, with wet and moderate winter and spring conditions favouring higher G. atropunctata abundance. Seasonal variation of the pathogen–vector interaction may play an important role in the dynamics of disease in vineyards, reducing the potential prevalence from what it could be in their absence. Moreover, climate, by affecting sharpshooter leafhopper abundance or activity, may influence Pierce’s disease dynamics.

Volatilização de amônia da ureia alterada por sistemas de preparo de solo e plantas de cobertura invernais no Centro-Sul do Paraná

O sistema plantio direto (PD) intensifica as perdas de N da ureia por volatilização, em comparação ao preparo convencional (PC). O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a magnitude desse efeito nas condições de temperatura amena e primavera chuvosa da região Centro-Sul do Paraná, bem como avaliar a influência de diferentes plantas de cobertura invernais (aveia-branca e ervilhaca comum) nas perdas de amônia (NH3) em PD. O estudo sobre o efeito dos preparos de solo foi realizado em experimento de longa duração (28 anos), e a avaliação das plantas de cobertura foi feita em experimento implantado especificamente com esse fim em área em PD por longo período (> 15 anos). Em ambos os experimentos cultivou-se milho. A ureia foi aplicada nas doses de 0, 80 e 160 kg ha-1 de N em apenas uma aplicação no experimento de preparos, e nas doses de 0, 100 e 200 kg ha-1 de N, divididas em duas aplicações, no experimento de plantas de cobertura. A volatilização de amônia foi avaliada durante 20 dias após a aplicação da ureia, utilizando coletores semiabertos estáticos. A atividade da urease no solo foi avaliada em ambos os experimentos. As maiores taxas de perda de NH3 ocorreram nos cinco dias que sucederam à aplicação de ureia. As perdas acumuladas atingiram 18 % da dose aplicada no PD e 3 % no PC, e as maiores perdas no PD podem ser parcialmente relacionadas à maior atividade da urease na camada superficial do solo. A volatilização de amônia não foi alterada pelo tipo de planta de cobertura. O parcelamento da adubação nitrogenada em cobertura por si só não garante a diminuição das perdas de N por volatilização, a qual é relacionada à ocorrência de chuva no período imediatamente posterior à aplicação da ureia.

Summer season and long‐term drought increase the richness of bacteria and fungi in the foliar phyllosphere of Quercus ilex in a mixed Mediterranean forest

We explored the changes in richness, diversity and evenness of epiphytic (on the leaf surface) and endophytic (within leaf tissues) bacteria and fungi in the foliar phyllosphere of Quercus ilex, the dominant tree species of Mediterranean forests. Bacteria and fungi were assessed during ontogenic development of the leaves, from the wet spring to the dry summer season in control plots and in plots subjected to drought conditions mimicking those projected for future decades. Our aim was to monitor succession in microbiota during the colonisation of plant leaves and its response to climate change. Ontogeny and seasonality exerted a strong influence on richness and diversity of the microbial phyllosphere community, which decreased in summer in the whole leaf and increased in summer in the epiphytic phyllosphere. Drought precluded the decrease in whole leaf phyllosphere diversity and increased the rise in the epiphytic phyllosphere. Both whole leaf bacterial and fungal richness decreased with the decrease in physiological activity and productivity of the summer season in control trees. As expected, the richness of epiphytic bacteria and fungi increased in summer after increasing time of colonisation. Under summer dry conditions, there was a positive relationship between TRF (terminal restriction fragments) richness and drought, both for whole leaf and epiphytic phyllosphere, and especially for fungal communities. These results demonstrate that changes in climate are likely to significantly alter microbial abundance and composition of the phyllosphere. Given the diverse functions and large number of phyllospheric microbes, the potential functional implications of such community shifts warrant exploration.

Seasonal changes in reproductive development in male spiny mice (Acomys spinosissimus) from South Africa

Seasonal reproduction is a common characteristic of many small mammals which inhabit seasonal environments in temperate regions, the sub-tropics as well as the tropics. It is important for an animal to reproduce during the most favourable time of the year to ensure the survival of the young and maximize reproductive success. In southern Africa, female spiny mice (Acomys spinosissimus) breed during the warm and wet spring and summer months, whereas the reproductive pattern of males is unknown although an opportunistic breeding pattern has been implicated. We investigated testes mass and volume, seminiferous tubule diameter, spermatogenesis and plasma testosterone concentrations in a South African population of male spiny mice on a 2-monthly basis over one year. Testes mass and volume started to increase in July/August and was high from September until December. Seminiferous tubule diameter and spermatogenesis increased during the same months. Plasma testosterone concentration was elevated from July/August to November/December. Development of the reproductive characteristics of male spiny mice was correlated with high rainfall and high ambient temperatures, but reproductive development had already started during the dry season and the coldest months. This shows that reproductive development in males may not be dependent on climatic conditions, and other factors, such as photoperiod, may trigger the onset of reproduction. The data, however, suggest that A. spinosissimus is a true seasonal breeder with reproduction confined to the spring and summer months in southern Africa.

Last glacial–interglacial environments in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA and implications for Younger Dryas-age human occupation

The last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT; 19–9ka) was characterized by rapid climate changes and significant ecosystem reorganizations worldwide. In western Colorado, one of the coldest locations in the continental US today, mountain environments during the late-glacial period are poorly known. Yet, archaeological evidence from the Mountaineer site (2625m elev.) indicates that Folsom-age Paleoindians were over-wintering in the Gunnison Basin during the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC; 12.9–11.7ka). To determine the vegetation and fire history during the LGIT, and possible explanations for occupation during a period thought to be harsher than today, a 17-ka-old sediment core from Lily Pond (3208m elev.) was analyzed for pollen and charcoal and compared with other high-resolution records from the southern Rocky Mountains. Widespread tundra and Picea parkland and low fire activity in the cold wet late-glacial period transitioned to open subalpine forest and increased fire activity in the Bølling–Allerød period as conditions became warmer and drier. During the YDC, greater winter snowpack than today and prolonged wet springs likely expanded subalpine forest to lower elevations than today, providing construction material and fuel for the early inhabitants. In the early to middle Holocene, arid conditions resulted in xerophytic vegetation and frequent fire.

Climate change and spotted owls: potentially contrasting responses in the Southwestern United States

AbstractDeveloping strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity will require projections of the future status of species under alternative climate change scenarios. Demographic models based on empirical data that link temporal variation in climate with vital rates can improve the accuracy of such predictions and help guide conservation efforts. Here, we characterized how population dynamics and extinction risk might be affected by climate change for three spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) populations in the Southwestern United States over the next century. Specifically, we used stochastic, stage‐based matrix models parameterized with vital rates linked to annual variation in temperature and precipitation to project owl populations forward in time under three IPCC emissions scenarios relative to contemporary climate. Owl populations in Arizona and New Mexico were predicted to decline rapidly over the next century and had a much greater probability of extinction under all three emissions scenarios than under current climate conditions. In contrast, owl population dynamics in Southern California were relatively insensitive to predicted changes in climate, and extinction risk was low for this population under all scenarios. The difference in predicted climate change impacts between these areas was due to negative associations between warm, dry conditions and owl vital rates in Arizona and New Mexico, whereas cold, wet springs reduced reproduction in Southern California. Predicted changes in population growth rates were mediated more by weather‐induced changes in fecundity than survival, and were generally more sensitive to increases in temperature than declines in precipitation. Our results indicate that spotted owls in arid environments may be highly vulnerable to climate change, even in core parts of the owl's range. More broadly, contrasting responses to climate change among populations highlight the need to tailor conservation strategies regionally, and modeling efforts such as ours can help prioritize the allocation of resources in this regard.

Modeling energy and carbon fluxes in a heterogeneous oak woodland: A three-dimensional approach

Most land surface and ecosystem models assume that a vegetated canopy can be abstracted as a turbid medium when such models compute mass, energy, and carbon exchange. However, those models fail to simulate radiation environments in heterogeneous landscapes. This study aims to couple a spatially explicit three-dimensional (3D) shortwave and longwave radiative transfer model with a soil and canopy energy balance and canopy physiology model (CANOAK-FLiES), to investigate how well the 3D model performs in a heterogeneous landscape compared to a 1D model. The canopy structural parameters were extracted using airborne-based Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and digital cover photographs. The developed model was compared with a wide variety of field and remote sensing data (e.g., hyper-spectral remote sensing images, overstory and understory radiation, and tower-based energy and CO 2 fluxes) in a woody oak savanna in CA, USA. Overall, the simulated spatial and diurnal patterns of the radiation environment were consistent with the measurements of shortwave and longwave wavebands. The 3D approach worked better than the 1D approach from the wet mild spring to the dry hot summer while the relative importance of using the 3D approach depends on climate and canopy physiological conditions as well as the canopy structure. With low leaf area index in the oak woodland, the woody elements absorbed 12%–39% of the PAR and 20%–52% of the NIR radiation. Consequently, 12% of the daytime energy flux was used as woody heat storage at our study site. This novel 3D model has the potential to serve as a useful tool for analyzing the spatio-temporal variability of radiation and energy fluxes in evaluating footprints of radiation sensors and eddy covariance fluxes, and serve as a standard in evaluating the performance of a hierarchy of simpler land surface models to compute mass and energy exchange of heterogeneous landscapes.

Meteorological and Hydrological Influences on the Spatial and Temporal Prevalence of West Nile Virus in <I>Culex</I> Mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York

The factors determining the spatial and temporal distribution of West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) activity are not well understood. Here, we explore the effects of hydrological and meteorological conditions on WNV infection among Culex genus mosquitoes collected during 2001-2009 in Suffolk County, Long Island, NY. We show that WNV infection rates in assayed pools of Culex mosquitoes are associated in both space and time with hydrological and meteorological variability. Specifically, wet winter, warm and wet spring conditions, and dry summer conditions are associated with the increased local prevalence of WNV among Culex mosquitoes during summer and fall. These findings indicate that within Suffolk County, and for a given year, areas at risk for heightened WNV activity may be identified in advance by using hydrology model estimates of land surface wetness and observed meteorological conditions.

CO2 and N2O emissions from an Andisol in Chile under a no-till system using non-fixed closed chambers

Chile has different types of soil and climate conditions that favor a wide range of agricultural activities that can generate potential atmospheric contamination like greenhouse gases (GHG). Nevertheless, the contribution of agricultural soils to atmospheric emissions has yet to be measured in Chile. The aim of this study was to assess seasonal variability of CO2 and N2O effluxes in situ from a volcanic ash-derived soil under different agronomic management practices. Gas samples were obtained from headspaces of non-fixed closed chambers in an annual crop rotation under a no-till system in an Andisol in southern Chile (36° S). Two N-sources (NH4+ and NO3-) and ammonium fertilization plus two lime doses (0.5 and 1 Mg ha-1) were considered for soil treatments Effluxes of CO2 and N2O were determined periodically for 1 yr, and soil variables, such as temperature, water, and mineral N content, were recorded. Results showed that CO2 effluxes respond to a seasonal pattern. No effect was evidenced when considering crop management practices with a maximum of 53.2 ± 8.5 kg CO2-C ha-1 d-1 in the wet fall period and a minimum of 9.7 ± 2.1 kg CO2-C ha-1 d-1 for summer, fall dry period, and winter. N2O efflux was highly variable throughout the year and showed no influence of treatments or season variability with a mean of 0.95 kg N2O-N ha-1 yr-1. Soil mineral N variations are not related to GHG effluxes as a single variable. Results indicate that an Andisol under a no-till system in southern Chile has a low N2O emission potential, and higher CO2 emissions are mainly produced in wet seasons (wet fall and/or spring).

Phenology and growth dynamics in Mediterranean evergreen oaks: Effects of environmental conditions and water relations

Budburst date and shoot elongation were measured in two mature Mediterranean evergreen oaks ( Quercus suber and Quercus ilex) and their relationships with meteorological and tree water status (predawn leaf water potential) data were analysed. Experimental work took place at two sites: Mitra 2 – Southern Portugal (2002–2003) and Lezirias – Central Portugal (2007–2010). Quercus suber phenology was studied at both sites whereas Q. ilex was only studied at Mitra 2. Quercus suber budburst date occurred at a photoperiod around 13.8 h (± 0.26) – late April/early May – and was highly related to the average daily temperature in the period 25 March – budburst date (ca. 1.5 months prior to budburst), irrespective of site location. In that period, budburst date was much more dependent on average maximum than average minimum daily temperature. Base temperature and thermal time for Q. suber were estimated as 6.2 °C (within the reported literature values) and 323 degree-days, respectively. Q. ilex budburst occurred about 6 weeks earlier than in Q. suber (photoperiod: 12.3 h (±0.3)). Relationships of Q. ilex budburst date and temperature were not studied since only 2 years of data were available for this species. Q. suber shoot elongation underlying mechanisms were quite different in the two sites. At Mitra 2 ( Q. suber and Q. ilex), there was a considerable tree water stress during the dry season which restricted shoot elongation. Shoot growth was resumed later in the wet autumn when tree water status recovered again. At the Lezirias site Q. suber water status was not restrictive. Therefore, shoot elongation was mainly dependent on nutrient availability in top soil, as suggested by the strong and positive relationships between annual shoot growth and long-term cumulative rainfall (2–4 months) and short-term average temperature (1 month) prior to budburst. Annual shoot elongation at this well-watered site was higher than in Mitra 2, and variability of growth between trees was enhanced after warm, wet springs when shoot elongation was higher. Results obtained are relevant to the carbon balance, productivity and management of evergreen Mediterranean oak woodlands, particularly under the foreseen climate change scenarios.

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

Spatial Variability of the Dominant Climate Signal in <i>Cassiope tetragona</i> from Sites in Arctic Canada

<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">Our study investigates the nature of the climate signal in three populations of the Arctic dwarf-shrub <em>Cassiope tetragona </em>using dendrochronological and stable isotope analysis techniques. We present 15 new <em>C. tetragona </em>chronologies from three sites (Axel Heiberg, Bathurst, and Devon islands) in the eastern Canadian Arctic, of which three are the first continuous stable carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³C) time series developed for Arctic shrubs. Correlation and multivariate regression analyses revealed that multiple and different climate factors influenced the chronologies within and between the three sites. At the Axel Heiberg Island site, the dominant climatic influences over annual stem elongation were previous year (t-1) and current year (t) summer precipitation, while annual production of flower buds was influenced by (t) winter precipitation and spring temperature. At Bathurst Island, annual production of flower buds responded to (t-1) growing season sunshine hours and winter precipitation and to (t) late growing season temperature and moisture availability. Our analysis of the Axel </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black;">H</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">eiberg and Bathurst Island models revealed the positive influence on δ</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">13</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">C values of (t-1) winter temperature—and on </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black;">B</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">athurst Island only, of (t-1) spring sunshine hours. The combined influence of these parameters on spring moisture availability suggests that the δ</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">13</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">C ratios varied in response to stomatal conductance. At Devon Island, the δ</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">13</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">C values varied in response to (t) and (t-1) spring and summer temperature and spring and fall solar radiation, which in turn influence the rate of photosynthesis. Our study supports the emerging hypothesis that Arctic shrubs are sensitive to climate. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black;">H</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">owever, strong spatial variation in plant-climate response characterized our sampling sites. </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black;">T</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: #221e1f;">his variation may be linked to site sensitivity, or regional climate variability due to geographic and topographic differences, or both. </span>

Architectural innovation in the land of the Iceni: a new complex near Venta Icenorum (Norfolk)

Crop-marks of one aisled building had previously been noted by aerial photography, but in 2007 a very wet early spring followed by a sudden hot dry spell meant that previously unknown sub-surface features were clearly marked by crops that were both higher and riper than the surrounding ones3 of unique plan, intersected by a substantial aisled building. There were possible indications of a second apsidal structure of oval or polygonal plan adjacent to the east. Trial excavation in 2007 demonstrated that the winged building was of Roman date.4

Erosion Risk Mapping Applied to Environmental Zoning

Water erosion caused by inappropriate land use compromises the ecosystems and causes economic and social losses. To remedy this, the present study proposes (i) the evaluation of the erosion risk in an Environmental Protection Area (EPA) with the combination of Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), soil loss tolerance (T) estimates adapted to Brazilian soils and the legislation; and (ii) control measures from environmental zoning. This was applied to the EPA of Lageado stream, one of the main surface water sources in Campo Grande, Brazil. Several referenced information plans were overlapped and the total area was divided into five zones with different land use profiles, which were determined according to the conservation and preservation of native vegetation, occurrence of wet areas and springs, land use and management, eroded area recovery and occurrence of permanently preserved areas. The methodology proposed was suitable for environmental zoning of protected areas. This protocol can be applied to other areas by including additional variables such as social and economic parameters.

Predictability of the spring rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula from sea surfaces temperature of ENSO areas

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) of the ocean on seasonal rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula is studied for the period 1951–2006. Seasonal correlations were calculated for all seasons and different lags applied on SST. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The most significant and repetitive correlation is found between SST over Equatorial Pacific and spring rainfall. The correlation is maintained for different lags, and the common area that satisfies the criteria for statistical field significance is coincident with ENSO area. A forecast scheme is developed to predict spring rainfall anomalies based in SST over ENSO area in precedent seasons. An analysis of principal components was also carried out to obtain the main modes of the Pacific Ocean and their influence on spring rainfall in NWIP. This study concludes that for the period 1951–2006 the negative phase of ENSO, “La Nina”, almost always announces dry springs in NW Iberian Peninsula. However, the positive phase of ENSO, “El Nino”, does not anticipate the appearance of wet springs.

Great Plains Precipitation and Its SST Links in Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations, and Twenty-First- and Twenty-Second-Century Climate Projections

Abstract The present work assesses spring and summer precipitation over North America as well as summer precipitation variability over the central United States and its SST links in simulations of the twentieth-century climate and projections of the twenty-first- and twenty-second-century climates for the A1B scenario. The observed spatial structure of spring and summer precipitation poses a challenge for models, particularly over the western and central United States. Tendencies in spring precipitation in the twenty-first century agree with the observed ones at the end of the twentieth century over a wetter north-central and a drier southwestern United States, and a drier southeastern Mexico. Projected wetter springs over the Great Plains in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries are associated with an increase in the number of extreme springs. In contrast, projected summer tendencies have demonstrated little consistency. The associated observed changes in SSTs bear the global warming footprint, which is not well captured in the twentieth-century climate simulations. Precipitation variability over the Great Plains presents a coherent picture in spring but not in summer. Models project an increase in springtime precipitation variability owing to an increased number of extreme springs. The number of extreme droughty (pluvial) events during the spring–fall part of the year is under(over)estimated in the twentieth century without consistent projections. Summer precipitation variability over the Great Plains is linked to SSTs over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with no apparent ENSO link in spite of the exaggerated variability in the equatorial Pacific in climate simulations; this has been identified already in observations and atmospheric models forced with historical SSTs. This link is concealed due to the increased warming in the twenty-first century. Deficiencies in land surface–atmosphere interactions and global teleconnections in the climate models prevent them from a better portrayal of summer precipitation variability in the central United States.