Moisture Anomalies Research Articles

Tropical Intraseasonal Variability as a Leading Moisture Dynamic Mode of the Warm-Pool Background State

Abstract Tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) is dominated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and its spatiotemporal characteristics vary with the Indo-Pacific warm-pool background on seasonal and longer time scales. Previous works have suggested ISV dynamics in various frameworks, whereas a unifying view remains challenging. Motivated by the recent advance in moisture mode theory, we revisit the ISV as a leading moisture mode modulated by varying background states derived from a reanalysis, using a moist linear baroclinic model (mLBM) improved with a simple convective scheme relating convective precipitation to tropospheric and boundary layer moisture anomalies and simple cloud-radiative feedback representations. Under a boreal winter background state, this mLBM yielded a large-scale but local eastward-propagating mode with a phase speed of 3–5 m s−1 over the warm-pool region, resembling the MJO. Background lower-tropospheric winds and thermodynamic fields are important in determining the growth rate and periodicity of the leading mode, whose stability depends on cloud-radiative feedback and background state variations. We further demonstrate why the MJO is locally contained in the Indo-Pacific warm-pool region. The local thermal/moisture condition and Walker circulation greatly enhance its instability, but outside this region, this mode is heavily damped. Thus, the expansion/contraction of this warm-pool condition may enhance/reduce its instability and expand/reduce its domain of activity. Prescribing El Niño background causes eastward displacement of the wintertime ISV activity, reminiscent of the observed MJO modulations by El Niño. Under a summer background state, the eastward-propagating leading mode resembles the boreal summer ISV but is biased, requiring further model improvements.

Satellite Gravimetry in Studies of Permafrost Thawing and Vegetation Productivity in the Cryolithozone

Changes in the hydrothermal regime of soils caused by the melting of the permafrost layer are the most important ecological factor in the dynamics of vegetation in the cryolithozone. The impact of soil thawing on the growth index (GI) of larch (Larix spp.) and on the gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) of vegetation in the Arctic region of Central Siberia (sparse forests, tundra, and forest tundra) is investigated. The following hypotheses are tested: (1) gravimetric data allow us to assess the dynamics of water mass in soils; (2) thawing of frozen soils stimulates the growth of woody plants and the productivity of vegetation. This work uses methods of dendrochronology, field data, satellite gravimetry (GRACE survey), and remote sensing of GPP (Terra/MODIS survey). An analysis of gravimetric data has revealed a significant long-term trend of decreasing water mass in soils of the cryolithozone (R2 = 0.68). The amount of water released during melting is estimated at 6.4 ± 2.3 kg/m–2 per year. A close relationship was established between the GI of larch and GPP with moisture anomalies in soils (r = –0.7 and r = –0.9, respectively). The increasing temperature of the root zone and the deficit of water vapor moisture also have a positive effect on the GI of larch and the GPP value of vegetation as a whole (r = 0.6 and r = 0.6–0.9, respectively). It is established that pyrogenic carbon losses are significantly (two orders of magnitude) lower than the NPP value. Under conditions of waterlogged soils, which are typical for the Arctic, climate warming is accompanied by an improvement in the hydrothermal growth regime of the plant cover and contributes to an increase in the productivity of vegetation and the preservation of the cryolithozone status of a carbon sink area.

Processes and controls of regional floods over eastern China

Abstract. Mounting evidence points to elevated regional flood hazards in a changing climate, but existing knowledge about their processes and controls is limited. This is partially attributed to inadequate characterizations of the spatial extent and potential drivers of these floods. Here we develop a machine-learning-based framework (mainly including the Density Based Spatial Clustering Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) clustering algorithm and a conditional random forest model) to examine the processes and controls of regional floods over eastern China. Our empirical analyses are based on a dense network of stream gauging stations with continuous observations of annual maximum flood peaks (i.e. magnitude and timing) during the period 1980–2017. A comprehensive catalogue of 318 regional floods is developed. We reveal a pronounced clustering of regional floods in both space and time over eastern China. This is dictated by cyclonic precipitating systems and/or their interactions with topography. We highlight contrasting behaviours of regional floods in terms of their spatial extents and intensities. These contrasts are determined by fine-scale structures of flood-producing storms and anomalous soil moisture. While land surface properties might play a role in basin-scale flood processes, it is more critical to capture spatial–temporal rainfall variabilities and soil moisture anomalies for reliable large-scale flood hazard modelling and impact assessments. Our analyses contribute to flood science by better characterizing the spatial dimension of flood hazards and can serve as a basis for collaborative flood risk management in a changing climate.

Soil Moisture Dominates the Land Surface Feedback in the Development of Compound Drought–Heat Extremes in Tropical South America

Abstract Observational evidence has demonstrated that heat extremes consistently coincide with droughts in tropical South America. However, the underlying causes and associated physical mechanisms remain relatively unexplored. In this study, we employ numerical experiments using Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), with prescribed oceanic forcing to assess how extreme soil temperature and moisture affect subsequent hydrometeorological conditions during the premonsoon season in tropical South America, a season when land can play an important role in regional climate. The results reveal a different diurnal pattern in the strength of the surface air temperature response, with a stronger response at night to soil temperature anomalies and a stronger response at noon to soil moisture anomalies. Elevated initial soil temperature or reduced initial soil moisture tends to yield warmer and drier hydrometeorological conditions and increase the occurrence of both drought and heat extremes, with stronger and longer-lasting responses to soil moisture anomalies (than soil temperature anomalies). The simulated responses to initial soil moisture anomalies alone closely resemble those in the experiment with combined soil temperature and moisture anomalies. These findings underscore the dominant role of soil moisture feedback in shaping compound drought–heat extremes, in regions where evaporation plays a significant role, highlighting its importance in the modeling and prediction of hydrometeorological extremes.

Major moisture shifts in inland Northeast Asia during the last millennium

Abstract Previous paleoenvironmental data synthesis indicates that arid central Asia (“westerlies Asia”) and mid-latitude East Asia (“monsoonal Asia”) show anti-phased moisture variations over the last millennium. However, there are very few records from inland Northeast Asia, which obscures the spatial extent of or the boundary between the two domains and hinders the assessment of climate change impacts and consequences across the region. Here, we present a multi-proxy record that combines peat properties, plant macrofossils, and isotopic ratios of Sphagnum moss cellulose from a unique precipitation-fed peatland in northern Northeast China to fill this critical data gap. The results show major centennial-scale moisture anomalies at this site, with drier and wetter conditions during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, respectively, which resemble the pattern of moisture changes in “westerlies Asia”. During the period of rapid anthropogenic warming, the site is much drier, with isotopic evidence for threshold-like summer desiccation of peat-forming Sphagnum mosses. This study provides the long-term context and identifies the large-scale pattern of moisture variability in an inland region home to carbon-rich peatlands, forests, and permafrost soils, and highlights their potential vulnerability to future warming-enhanced drying that can be transmitted widely through atmospheric teleconnection.

Comparing MJO Intensity over the Tropical Western Pacific during Mega and Equatorial La Niña Winters

Abstract This study investigated variations in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) behavior between two types of La Niña winters: mega and equatorial La Niñas. Results of this work show that in contrast to mega conditions, accompanied by more abundant intraseasonal column-integrated moisture anomalies over the planetary boundary layer, intensities of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies are stronger over the tropical western Pacific (WP) at MJO phases 5–6 under equatorial conditions. The occurrence of the moisture anomaly change averaged over the tropical WP is supported by a distinct moisture tendency difference. Moisture budget and multiscale interaction diagnoses underscore the pivotal effect of an area-averaged vertical gradient change in low-frequency background moisture in driving such tendency change. Considering notable MJO convection variations, the teleconnections associated with MJO phases 5–6 over East Asia (EA) were also explored, including warmer surface air temperature anomalies and stronger positive geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa on the intraseasonal time scale under equatorial conditions. Results from a linear baroclinic model demonstrate that such teleconnection changes could be effectively explained by the linear response to the MJO’s diabatic heating anomaly. Roles of mean state and MJO itself variations in the linear response change are also discussed. These findings provide novel insights into MJO activity and offer potential improvements for subseasonal forecasting in EA. Significance Statement The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and MJO has been extensively explored recently. However, variations in the MJO behavior and its climate effects under mega and equatorial La Niña winters have not been thoroughly investigated. In this work, we utilized reanalysis datasets and an idealized linear baroclinic model to address these questions. We observed more robust and abundant intraseasonal convection activity and planetary boundary layer–integrated moisture anomaly averaged over the tropical WP at MJO phases 5–6 under equatorial conditions than mega conditions, which is closely linked with the vertical gradient change in low-frequency background moisture. Additionally, MJO-related teleconnections also exhibit some changes. This work may provide a new perspective on understanding the relationship between the MJO and ENSO and offer potential improvements for the subseasonal forecast.

Impact of shifting patterns of the South Asian High on interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in homogeneous regions

AbstractThe movement and intensity indices of the South Asian High (SAH), an upper‐level anticyclonic‐circulation over the Tibetan Plateau, play a crucial role in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during June–September. The present study aims to document (i) the association between SAH and ISMR in the periods of June–July–August (JJA) and July–August–September (JAS), and (ii) the ISMR changes at different spatial and temporal scales. The Bayesian change‐point detection method identifies 1981 as change point and the dataset has been split into two groups (past climate:1940–1980 and current climate:1981–2020) to analyze temporal variations in ISMR. Results indicate that the northwest–southeast index (INW–SE), north–south index (INS) and intensity index (IINT) of the SAH are strongly correlated (˜0.67, ˜0.60, and ˜0.51, respectively) with ISMR whereas the east–west index (IEW) is negatively correlated (˜−0.52) during the JAS season. This relation was stronger in the past climate than the current climate, except for the IINT index during the JAS season. The INW–SE and INS indices are closely associated with all‐India, northwest India (NWI), and central India (CI) rainfall, whereas IINT is associated with south peninsular India (SPI) during the JAS season. The increased rainfall over NWI and SPI in the current climate is strongly associated with positive INS and IINT indices, respectively, during the JAS season. The northeast India (NEI) rainfall did not show any association with SAH indices; however, the IEW is strongly associated with increased NEI rainfall during El Niño years. A significant positive (negative) relation between meridional (zonal) wind shear and SAH indices except the IEW index is observed. Further, the positive (negative) SAH indices favor more (moderate) ISMR due to strong positive (negative) moisture anomalies. The study demonstrates the movement and intensity of the SAH in the dynamical shifts of seasonal rainfall patterns across the Indian homogeneous regions.

Improving weather forecast skill of the Korean Integrated Model by assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive soil moisture anomalies

AbstractThis study investigates the potential benefit of assimilating soil moisture (SM) data retrieved from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) in improving global SM estimates and enhancing the weather forecast skill of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM). The 36‐km SMAP L2 SM retrievals are assimilated into the Noah land surface model (LSM) using the ensemble Kalman filter scheme through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Land Information System (LIS) that is weakly coupled to KIM. A suite of cycling experiments of the KIM–LIS system that includes land and atmospheric data assimilation (DA) and five‐day weather forecasts are conducted over the global domain from March to July 2022. In the SMAP SM DA, two different SM bias correction methods, namely the cumulative distribution function matching and anomaly‐based bias correction, are applied to correct systematic biases between SMAP and Noah‐LSM before assimilation. The global triple collocation analysis reveals that compared to the control case (without SM DA), significant improvements in the global SM estimates are achieved by assimilating the SMAP data, especially by employing the anomaly‐based bias correction. Notably, the improved SM initial conditions lead to an improved screen‐level specific humidity and air temperature analysis and forecasts when the results are compared against the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts‐Integrated Forecasting System analysis. The beneficial impacts of the SMAP DA on the atmospheric variables extend up to an atmospheric level of 700 hPa. Prominent improvements in the KIM forecast skill by the SMAP DA applying the anomaly‐based bias correction are observed in the northern part of Africa and West and Central Asia with stronger impacts for longer forecast lead time. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of assimilating the SMAP data within KIM–LIS to enhance the KIM weather forecasts in the lower atmosphere when a proper SM bias correction method is applied.

Enhancing Drought Resilience through Groundwater Engineering by Utilizing GIS and Remote Sensing in Southern Lebanon

Countries face challenges of excess, scarcity, pollution, and uneven water distribution. This study highlights the benefits of advances in groundwater engineering that improve the understanding of utilizing local geological characteristics due to their crucial role in resisting drought in southern Lebanon. The type of drought in the region was determined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Soil Moisture Anomaly Index (SM). The dry aquifer and its characteristics were analyzed using mathematical equations and established hydrogeological principles, including Darcy’s law. Additionally, a morphometric assessment of the Litani River was performed to evaluate its suitability for artificial recharge, where the optimal placement of the water barrier and recharge tunnels was determined using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. This analysis involved excluding certain parameters based on the Shapiro–Wilk test for normality. Accordingly, using the Geographic Information System (GIS), we modeled and simulated the potential water table. The results showed the importance and validity of linking groundwater engineering and morphometric characteristics in combating the drought of groundwater layers. The Eocene layer showed a clearer trend for the possibility of being artificially recharged from the Litani River than any other layer. The results showed that the proposed method can enhance artificial recharge, raise the groundwater level to four levels, and transform it into a large, saturated thickness. On the other hand, it was noted that the groundwater levels near the surface will cover most of the area of the studied region and could potentially store more than one billion cubic meters of water, mitigating the effects of climate change for decades.

Enhanced northward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the western north Pacific linked to the tropical Indian Ocean warming

While decadal changes in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have received considerable attention, the corresponding changes in Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) have yet to be well understood. In this study, we show the enhanced northward propagation of BSISO in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the 2000s compared to the 1980s–1990s. Observational analyses and model experiments suggest this enhancement is partially attributed to the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming. The TIO warming tends to increase the air-sea interaction, enhancing moisture anomalies in the free atmosphere. Consequently, this increase in moisture anomalies strengthens BSISO-scale convection through increased convective anomalies at the north of the BSISO center, thereby enhancing the northward propagation of BSISO. Additionally, vorticity changes resulting from mean-state zonal vertical shear also contribute to the BSISO decadal change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering the interaction between BSISO and changes in the ocean mean state in future assessments.

Influence of autumn soil moisture over Kalimantan Island on following winter precipitation over southern China

AbstractThe atmospheric activity on Kalimantan Island (KI) is important for regulating regional weather and climate. This study investigates the effect of autumn soil moisture over KI on following winter precipitation over southern China (SC) during 1968–2014. The results show that the autumn soil moisture over the KI has a significant negative correlation with subsequent winter precipitation over SC. The correlation remains statistically significant when using partial correlation to filter out the concurrent influences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signals. The soil moisture anomalies over KI, which initiate in the autumn and persist into the winter, lead to changes in local thermal conditions and atmospheric temperature. Negative soil moisture anomalies over KI will result in positive heating anomalies of the atmosphere above the land surface. This atmospheric heating causes ascending motion, which creates a semi‐closed vertical circulation from KI to the tropical northwest Pacific. This vertical circulation would strengthen the northwest Pacific anticyclone and weaken the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Consequently, southwesterly water vapour flux prevails in the SC as well as the South China Sea (SCS), facilitating the transportation of more water vapour into the SC. Simultaneously, water vapour convergence in the SC. Collectively, these contribute to an addition of precipitation over SC.

Relationship between Vegetation and Soil Moisture Anomalies Based on Remote Sensing Data: A Semiarid Rangeland Case

Relationship between Vegetation and Soil Moisture Anomalies Based on Remote Sensing Data: A Semiarid Rangeland Case

Simulating springtime extreme rainfall over Southern East Asia: unveiling the importance of synoptic-scale activities

This study investigates the influence of synoptic-scale activities on extreme precipitation during March–April–May (MAM) over Southern East Asia (SEA) using observational data and compares the results with the outputs from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) historical runs. Observations show that SEA intense daily precipitation in MAM is linked to enhanced upper-level synoptic-scale waves; these disturbances are associated with significant anomalous temperature advection as well as moisture flux convergence, creating favorable conditions for extreme rainfall. Furthermore, it is found that a temperature advection index (TAI) can be utilized to characterize such synoptic-scale activities. Inspection of CMIP6 historical runs reveals that, among 20 models, 13 models perform well in accurately capturing the observed SEA rainfall pattern; such extreme events are also closely linked to TAI in the model environment. Overall, observed (simulated) results show that 78% (75%) of extreme events in the Yangtze River Basin–South Korea–south of Japan region can be attributed to positive TAI. Additionally, the related circulation anomalies such as the upper-level synoptic-scale wave feature, temperature advection, and moisture anomalies from these models closely resemble those observed during extreme precipitation days in SEA. Our findings suggest that TAI can effectively indicate both the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events in SEA, along with the associated synoptic-scale activities. Further study reveals a close lead-lag correlation between TAI and rainfall patterns over SEA. This correlation is characterized by eastward-propagating wave trains across the entire troposphere. Consequently, TAI not only acts as a benchmark for quantifying synoptic-scale extreme rainfall in SEA but also shows potential in predicting SEA rainfall linked to synoptic-scale disturbances.

Land-atmosphere coupling amplified the record-breaking heatwave at altitudes above 5000 meters on the Tibetan Plateau in July 2022

In July 2022, regions with elevations exceeding 5 000 m on the inner Tibetan Plateau (TP) witnessed a record-breaking heatwave. But how the atmospheric circulation and soil moisture play roles in the occurrence and maintenance of the heatwave in such high elevation climate sensitive region remains unknown. Here, by using the flow analogue method, we find that negative soil moisture anomalies explain more than half of the extreme high temperature during the heatwave, while atmospheric circulation explains less than half. The high soil moisture-temperature coupling metric and the increased correlation between latent heat flux and soil moisture during heatwave revealed strong land-atmosphere feedback in the Qiangtang Plateau which has amplified the heatwave. Analyses of numerical experiments confirm that the presence of interaction between soil moisture and the atmosphere has increased the intensity of hot extreme event under the same atmospheric circulation conditions. Under the warming background, land-atmosphere coupling leads to a faster increase in extreme high temperatures compared to the global mean warming rate, and it is twice as fast as the increase in extreme high temperatures without coupling. We highlight the increased probability of extreme high temperature over the TP in the future due to soil moisture feedback and the results are hoped to inform policymakers in making decisions for climate adaptation activities.

Drastic increase in the magnitude of very rare summer-mean vapor pressure deficit extremes

Summers with extremely high vapor pressure deficit contribute to crop losses, ecosystem damages, and wildfires. Here, we identify very rare summer vapor pressure deficit extremes globally in reanalysis data and climate model simulations, and quantify the contributions of temperature and atmospheric moisture anomalies to their intensity. The simulations agree with reanalysis data regarding these physical characteristics of historic vapor pressure deficit extremes, and show a +33/+28% increase in their intensity in the northern/southern mid-latitudes over this century. About half of this drastic increase in the magnitude of extreme vapor pressure deficit anomalies is due to climate warming, since this quantity depends exponentially on temperature. Further contributing factors are increasing temperature variability (e.g., in Europe) and the expansion of soil moisture-limited regions. This study shows that to avoid amplified impacts of future vapor pressure deficit extremes, ecosystems and crops must become more resilient not only to an increasing mean vapor pressure deficit, but additionally also to larger seasonal anomalies of this quantity.

Summer Heatwaves in Southeastern Australia

AbstractHeatwaves in southeastern Australia have characteristic weather patterns that are well understood but are outnumbered by days with similar synoptic‐scale patterns that are not heatwaves. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to identify the key differences between heatwave and non‐heatwave days from 40 years of reanalysis data. A synoptic climatology of seven weather states was constructed by ‐means cluster analysis. Four of these states account for more than 80% of heatwave days across south‐and‐central eastern Australia. Moreover, the spatial maxima in the frequency of the heatwave days are distinct and geographically separated. Heatwave days have a stronger upper anticyclone or ridge that has propagated further equatorward in comparison with non‐heatwave days. The air upstream of the ridge is more humid on heatwave days, whereas downstream of the ridge the air is much drier. These dry anomalies are co‐located with midtropospheric subsidence and the moist anomalies with ascent, and their respective spatial distributions are consistent with regions of adiabatic warming and latent heating identified in recent studies of southeast Australian heatwaves. The corresponding vertical motion on non‐heatwave days is weaker and shifted further poleward. Southeast Queensland heatwave days exhibit increased baroclinicity over the Australian Subtropics and reduced rainfall over Queensland. Further south and west, heatwave days are associated with more amplified Rossby waves and increased rainfall over the Australian Tropics. Anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking is greatly enhanced on heatwave days south of 30°S. For every day in each of these four weather states, the 3‐day‐mean maximum temperature in the region of peak heatwave day frequency is positively correlated with 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies on the equatorward flank of the cluster‐mean upper ridge. These findings underline the importance of equatorward Rossby wave propagation in the dynamics of southeast Australian heatwaves.

Joint Impacts of the North African and the Western Pacific Subtropical Highs on Summer Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Focusing on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), this study mainly investigates the joint impacts of the North African subtropical high (NASH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) by examining circulation and moisture anomalies. Results show that there are several boundary combination types of the two subtropical highs. The anomalous vertical motion with sufficient moisture transport under different boundary types plays a dominant role in TP precipitation anomaly. When the WPSH strengthens westward approaching the TP, it can transport water vapor northward from the northwest Pacific and north Indian Oceans to the south edge of the TP and induce ascending motion over the southeastern TP, contributing to more precipitation there. When the NASH enhances and extends eastward, it can transport water vapor eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean to the southwest eastern TP and give rise to ascending motion there, inducing positive precipitation anomaly over the southwest eastern TP. When the two subtropical highs simultaneously intensify and extend to the TP, water vapor can be transported to the TP widely from the North Atlantic Ocean, the north Indian Ocean, and the northwest Pacific Ocean with the strengthening of the westerly, resulting in the location of the ascending motion and rain belt shifting obviously northward. Further analyses indicate that the prewinter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and summer North Atlantic air–sea interaction are two indispensable possible modulation factors for the joint impact of the two subtropical highs on TP precipitation. Significance Statement Under the thermal and topographic effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the subtropical high belt breaks over the TP, forming the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) on its east and the North African subtropical high (NASH) on its west. As a permanent anticyclonic circulation over the northwest Pacific, the formation, impact, and prediction of WPSH have been fully revealed. However, few studies have been focused on the NASH. In this study, we examine the joint impacts of the two subtropical highs on TP summer precipitation based on various reanalysis datasets and phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) historical simulations. The results show distinct precipitation features with several boundary combination types of the two subtropical highs. Besides, controlling water vapor transport and vertical motion is an important way for the two subtropical highs to affect TP precipitation in summer. Further study shows that the effect of the two subtropical highs on TP summer precipitation is generally modulated by the prewinter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and summer North Atlantic air–sea interaction. The results from CMIP6 support the conclusions drawn from reanalysis. These findings could help deepen our understanding of the joint influencing factors on TP summer precipitation.

Unconventional cold vortex as precursor to historic early summer heatwaves in North China 2023

In mid-June to July 2023, North China witnessed extreme heatwaves, marked by intense near-surface warming with an advanced seasonal cycle of local air temperature. An unconventional upper-tropospheric cold vortex in early June, deviating from conventional “heat dome” patterns, preceded the heatwave extremes. The zonal SSTA gradient in Indo-Pacific warm pool initially suppressed Indian summer monsoon convection, which stimulated the cold vortex around North China via a tropical-extratropical teleconnection. This anomaly intensified the air-land thermal contrast, leading to increased sensible heating and reduced soil moisture in situ. The drier soil conditions maintained and further augmented sensible heating, escalating surface air temperature, and culminating in extraordinary heatwaves. The air column was then destabilized to mitigate the upper-level cold vortex. Historical records corroborate the extremity of the air-sea interactions in 2023. The ECMWF real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts successfully capture the air-land feedback in both cold vortex and heatwave stages, albeit with an underestimation of heatwave intensity due to biases in soil moisture anomalies. Consequently, the initial cold vortex condition and air-land-sea interactions yield S2S predictability to the historic 2023 heatwaves in North China.

Distinct propagating and standing modes of tropical intraseasonal variability as represented by the two principal oscillation patterns

Although the tropical intraseaonal variability (TISV), as the most important predictability sources for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, is dominated by Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), its significant fraction does not always share the canonical MJO features, especially when the convective activity arrives at Maritime Continent. In this study, using principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis on the combined fields of daily equatorial convection and zonal wind, two distinct leading TISV modes with relatively slower e-folding decay rates are identified. One is an oscillatory mode with the period of 51 days and e-folding time of 19 days, capturing the eastward propagating (EP) feature of the canonical MJO. The other is a non-oscillatory damping mode with e-folding time of 13.6 days, capturing a standing dipole (SD) with convection anomalies centered over the Maritime Continent and tropical central Pacific, respectively. Compared to the EP mode, the leading moisture anomalies at low level to the east of convection center are diminish for the SD mode, and instead, the strong negative anomalies of moisture and subsidence motion emerge in the tropical central Pacific area, which may be responsible for the distinct propagation features. Without filtering methods used, timeseries of the two POPs could be applied to the real-time monitoring of EP and SD events in the phase-space diagram. The two modes can serve as the simple and objective approach for a better characterization for diverse natures of TISV beyond the canonical MJO description, which may further shed light on dynamics of the TISV and its predictability.

Synchronous Tropical Andean Hydroclimate Variability During the Last Millennium

AbstractThe impact of latitudinal variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on northern Andean hydroclimate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950–1,150 CE) and Little Ice Age (LIA; 1,300–1,850 CE) is uncertain. Synthesis of two new lacustrine paleoclimate records from the Eastern Colombian Andes with existing circum‐Andean records shows that effective moisture anomalies were synchronous and in phase across the tropical Andes during the last millennium. During the MCA, when the ITCZ was shifted northward, topographically controlled responses in the northern Andes to vigorous atmospheric convection resulted in low precipitation and high evaporation, while precipitation was also reduced in the southern tropical Andes. During the LIA, precipitation decreased in the northern Andes as the ITCZ migrated southward but was offset by cooling that lowered evaporation, establishing high effective moisture. In the southern tropical Andes, the southward ITCZ position simultaneously strengthened precipitation, increasing effective moisture. MCA‐like responses to continued warming trends could similarly reduce northern Andean precipitation while increasing evaporation, thereby lowering effective moisture and possibly reducing water resource availability.