Westminster Government Research Articles

Calibration of stakeholder influence in the UK higher education sector

ABSTRACT Over the last 20 years, the UK Higher Education sector has experienced a significant change to its funding base with a shift away from government funding, to operating within a highly competitive marketised environment. This shift has impacted the governance and management structures within the sector, with universities encouraged to adopt a more corporate and managerial style. Moreover, over this period, universities have evolved and adapted to social, economic, environmental and technological changes, necessitating a change in dialogue with the large number of internal and external stakeholders who influence Higher Education policy as well as university practices and operations. Adopting a Stakeholder and Resource Dependency Theory perspective, this paper seeks to calibrate the changing influence and importance of these stakeholders. The paper analyses a survey of 22 university secretaries (In the UK Higher Education setting, the university secretary is responsible for the effective governance of the university and for its professional services. In recent years, several UK universities have changed the title of this role from university secretary to Chief Operating Officer (COO), or to University Secretary and Chief Operating Officer, which is more common internationally.) conducted in mid-2020, and the results show that academic staff and students are seen as the most influential internal stakeholders as the quality of teaching and research is vital to the reputation and attractiveness of the university in a global market. Undergraduate home students are seen as the most influential student group due largely to the numbers enrolled, followed by international postgraduate taught students, an outcome consistent with resource dependency theory. UK and devolved governments (Devolution occurs when a central government delegates power to a region, providing it with autonomy to make legislation relevant to the area, whilst keeping it under national control. In the UK, devolved powers were granted to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland from the UK Westminster Government following referenda in each region in the late 1990s. The devolved governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have control over a wide range of policy areas and have the authority to pass their own legislation in relation to them. One such devolved policy area is education. Other devolved policy areas include health services, law, and the environment.) are seen as the most influential external stakeholder reflecting their role in university funding and in setting Higher Education policy and regulation, an influence that has increased over the past two decades. The influence of financial stakeholders has also grown over the past two decades.

Understanding the economics of abuse: an assessment of the economic abuse definition within the Domestic Abuse Bill

The term ‘economic abuse’ was first introduced into discourse when it was identified as a tactic used by perpetrators within the Duluth Power and Control Wheel. Yet it is only recently that researchers have turned their attention to defining and understanding it. This article draws on a review of the global and UK specific academic research literature to assess the suitability of the definition of economic abuse put forward within the Westminster government’s Domestic Abuse Bill. It recommends that a) the term ‘any behaviour’ within the definition is understood to include controlling tactics which sit under the constructs of economic restriction, exploitation and/or sabotage, b) the definition recognises perpetrators will also prevent a partner from using/maintaining goods or services and, c) attention is given to the suggestion that single incidents of economic abuse would not fall under this definition. While the focus of this article is on Westminster policy in the UK, the case for ‘naming’ and defining economic abuse in statute has wider resonance, not least because it provides a framework within which to report on prevalence, hold perpetrators accountable and for services (statutory and voluntary) to respond.

The evolving status of elementary teachers in Ireland (1831–1921): from ‘feckless and impoverished’ to ‘respectable’

ABSTRACT This research critically examines the efforts of the British State and the various churches to re-vision the character and status of elementary school teachers in Ireland between the 1830s and the 1920s. In a climate of regular political revolution and denominational hostility, the Westminster government and all churches were anxious to promote civility, loyalty and religious allegiance among the Irish populace through education. To advance these aims, strict criteria for the selection, training, recruitment and management of teachers were developed and introduced by the State and churches. The aim here is to explore and analyse the interface between, and impact of, national and local oversight on the professional standing and identity of teachers. Collectively, the concerted efforts of the State and churches led to a re-vision of the position and a change in the status of teachers that has had a lasting impact on their professional identity.

Covid-19: Easing lockdown could risk second spike, say public health doctors.

Public health experts have added their voice to growing calls for the government to reverse its decision to ease covid-19 lockdown restrictions in England that came into force on 1 June, saying that the change in policy was not “supported by the science” and could risk lives. The Association of Directors of Public Health has issued blunt warnings that easing the restrictions could risk a spike in cases and deaths and that therefore the full implementation of what the government describes as its “phase 2” measures should be delayed. From I June England is allowing groups of up to six people to meet outdoors, provided that strict social distancing guidelines are followed, encouraging more pupils to return to school, more businesses to reopen, and allowing vulnerable people to go outside once a day. The Westminster government said the …

Transforming Public Procurement Law after Brexit: Early Reflections on the Government’s Green Paper

On 15th December 2020 the Westminster Government published its long-awaited Green Paper on public procurement law, “Transforming Public Procurement”, setting out its vision for the UK’s post-Brexit regime. In a number of Working Papers and articles the author has set out her own vision for a post-Brexit regime, which proposed that new legislation should regulate not mainly to ensure open markets, as with the current EU-based rules, but also to secure other objectives, such as value for money and integrity; and set out seven (related) principles which it was suggested should underpin the reforms, namely: an open contracting approach; a single and uniform regime; significant legislative simplification involving a shift from hard to soft law; use of familiar concepts, rules and terminology where appropriate; a rebalancing of interests away from open market objectives towards value for money, sustainability and reduced procedural costs, and a related shift in regulatory strategy to increase flexibility; more effective and balanced enforcement; and a common framework across UK jurisdictions. The present Working Paper provides an assessment of the Green Paper from the perspective of the key themes and recommendations of these proposals. It is explained that the Green Paper proposals follows the above approach to a very large extent. It proposes bold reforms to make the system more flexible, more streamlined and more transparent, including proposals for refocusing objectives, open contracting, a single and uniform regime, significant simplification, enhanced flexibility, including free access to negotiation and substantial improvements to enforcement. However, this positive view does come with some reservations. In particular, there is inadequate treatment of the important issue of mechanisms for recurring purchase in the form of framework agreements, dynamic purchasing systems and qualification systems. Here the proposals have potential for significantly reducing, rather than increasing, flexibility, contrary to a key aim of the reform, but are not sufficiently clear or justified to provide a basis for meaningful consultation. A second reservation is in the area of remedies. While valuable reforms are proposed to speed up court cases and improve pre-contractual remedies, it seems unlikely that these proposals alone will ensure access to justice for smaller companies; and while the prospect of removing some cases from the courts is raised for the longer term, such a future reform is by no means guaranteed. Finally, it is disappointing that the vision of a single and uniform regime has not been extended beyond the four sets of procurement Regulations that derive from EU law, as there are no convincing reasons not to do this.

London 2012, glasgow 2014 and athletes as political symbols – the precarious positioning of athletes within the evolving contemporary politics of the United Kingdom

This article considers the implications for athletes who hold a position as a ‘political symbol’ in the context of the United Kingdom (UK), and specifically Scotland, particularly those who publicly stated their personal political opinions during the periods of the London 2012 Olympic Games and the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. These two major international sporting events were hosted during a period of political upheaval within the UK, evidenced in the return of Conservative-led Westminster governments in 2010, the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014 and the referendum on European Union membership in 2016. English media coverage of the 2012 London Olympic Games revealed a propensity to critically frame ‘Scottish’ athletes, competing in ‘Team GB’, as potential resistors to overt expressions of British nationalism. This centred on Scottish athletes who failed to sing the British national anthem. During the campaign for Scottish independence in 2014, the establishment of the pro-independence ‘Sport for Yes’ group sought to harness sporting issues and personalities in favour of Scottish independence. In contrast, the pro-union ‘Better Together’ campaign promoted athletes discussing the potential negative impact of Scottish independence on the funding and organisation of Scottish sport. Accordingly, by critically considering the discursive framing of athletes who publicly announce their political positions, this article provides a review of the political significance of such pronouncements amidst a politically fraught UK.

The Minimum Age of Criminal Responsibility: The Need for a Holistic Approach

The minimum age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales remains 10 years: something which has attracted criticism globally by policy makers and youth justice practitioners. Yet, the Westminster Government refuses to consider changes to minimum age of criminal responsibility, despite evidence supporting reform. This article, drawing on the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child’s consultation to revise General Comment No. 10 (2007) and the activities of UK devolved administrations, explores the need for minimum age of criminal responsibility reform, considering how a holistic approach focused on diversion and the provision of rights respecting appropriate interventions can create positive, even transformative outcomes for children.

1997 and 2016: Referenda, Brexit, and (Re-)bordering at the European Periphery

Abstract 2016 is likely to be recalled – in Europe, at least – as a temporal bordering, after a majority in the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The “Brexit” referendum result has been pinned on the rise of populist politics and the revenge of so-called “left behind” places. Regardless of reasons, the referendum left the UK with fraught politics and protracted negotiations, especially over how to re-border with a Europe that has held the dismantling of borders at the heart of its philosophical project. While Brexit has already become a byword, an earlier referendum on British borders has long slipped from international note. In 1997, a majority in Wales (one of the four constituent countries of the UK), voted for devolution from central government in Westminster. Like the Brexit referendum twenty years later, the majority in favor of devolution was slight, exposing uneasy fractures and internal cleavages as it opened fresh questions of governance and geography. By attending to a small country at the periphery of Europe, we seek to destabilize the assumption of shared markers of global bordering (1989, 2001), revealing instead the palimpsests of identity and territoriality across which re-made borders run “all over.”

Externalization and politicization in policy advisory systems: a case study of contestable policy-making 2010–2015

ABSTRACTThis paper contends that since 2010 in the UK, there has been an unprecedented attempt to disrupt the traditional civil service ‘monopoly’ over policy advice, outsourcing policy-making to actors beyond the central state. The author argues that the policy-making processes of Whitehall and Westminster governance are being radically overhauled. In many Anglophone countries, ministers have sought to reduce their structural dependence on the permanent civil service. In so doing, ministers sought to gain political control over the machinery of policy-making. These efforts to restructure the permanent bureaucracy have had unintended consequences, however. The policy process in the UK state has become more fragmented, as policy-making and implementation have increasingly diverged.

Devolution, “new politics” and election pledge fulfilment in Scotland, 1999–2011

The institutions of Scottish devolution were designed using the majoritarian Westminster system as a “negative template” with the hope that a more consensual “new politics” would emerge. The electoral system successfully prevented a single-party majority in the first three sessions of the Scottish Parliament. But did this bring about the desired changes in party behaviour? Research on the connection between campaign promises and government actions shows that it is strongest in the United Kingdom—where single-party majorities are the norm—and weakest in countries where multiparty coalitions are common. If new politics had succeeded in its aims, we would expect Scottish governments to fulfil a lower proportion of manifesto pledges than British governments. This study investigates the extent to which the 1999 and 2003 Scottish Labour-Liberal Democrat coalitions and the 2007 SNP minority administration fulfilled their campaign pledges using an original dataset containing 600 individual manifesto pledges. All three parties are found to have fulfilled pledges at a rate comparable to Westminster governments. These findings reinforce the notion that the reality of post-devolution Scottish politics fell short of its designers’ ambitions. Supplementary analyses provide further support for inferences made in previous pledge studies concerning the factors which contribute to pledge fulfilment.

Fighting fires – firefighter organising in the UK

8 | International Union Rights | 26/1 FOCUS | UNION RIGHTS OF STATE ADMINISTRATION AND ESSENTIAL SERVICES WORKERS Fighting fires – firefighter organising in the UK Last year, the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) celebrated our centenary as the representative voice of firefighters across the UK. Our celebration was cause for much reflection on our role at home and internationally in developing our service and protecting our members. One hundred years ago organising firefighters into trade unions was heavily proscribed in the UK. There were hundreds of small local brigades, with almost half within police fire brigades and therefore closed to trade unionism. National funding and national standards were nonexistent . Poorly funded local arrangements meant fragmented services according to luck and circumstance, rather than risk. Firefighters’ generally lived and worked at their fire station, often for shifts of 100 hours a week. They were paid a pittance. The ‘Fireman’s Trade Union’ (FTU) was formed in 1918, during the great drive to unionise workers that swept through much of the industrialised world. The union would struggle to recruit more than a few thousand members in its early years. It was initially denied the right to bargain collectively and to strike. But the union allied itself with the wider trade union movement and affiliated to the Labour Party during the 1920s. It fought to establish a national legislative framework for firefighting during the 1930s and organised the influx of auxiliaries drafted into the fire service before and during the Second World War, leading to a significant growth in membership and influence. This enabled the FBU to play a central role in shaping the post-war fire service architecture. The union was instrumental in establishing collective bargaining on pay and conditions through the National Joint Council in 1947 – a body that exists to this day. We also supported the national stakeholder forum, the Central Fire Brigades Advisory Council (CFBAC), established at the time and which oversaw improvements for the next half century. The union won national standards of fire cover and campaigned for better equipment and training for firefighters. The union took its first industrial action, the spit-and-polish work to rule in the early 1950s and its first national strike action in 1977, winning a pay formula and a 42-hour week. The union established high levels of membership density in the industry – around 90 percent – which has been crucial in making and defending gains. The neoliberal turn The FBU has faced relentless attacks on our right to organise over the past forty years, starting with the Thatcher administration in 1979. Successive governments have threatened to roll back our fire and rescue service through cuts, reorganisation and antiunion legislation. Chief fire officers tried to get firefighters exempted from health and safety legislation, while central government attacked national standards of fire cover, building regulations and other fire safety matters. Ministers tried in vain to introduce privatisation into our public service, meeting a robust response from the union at every turn. Sadly the advent of Tony Blair’s new Labour government in 1997 did not improve the situation. In fact that administration weakened fire safety law, torn up the national framework, scrapped much of the national infrastructure for fire safety standards (such as the CFBAC) and tried to impose a regional fire control model. The FBU fought a bitter battle to increase firefighters’ pay in 2002-03 and faced outrageous attacks from leading Labour ministers. The union also fought many local battles, including taking strike action to defend local services. The last decade has seen the fire and rescue service in the UK battered by the economic downturn and by central government austerity. The Tory-led governments since 2010 have reduced central funding by more than 40 percent, cutting one-in-five firefighter jobs in the process and damaging national resilience to fire and other hazards firefighters tackle. This unprecedented austerity was part of making workers’ pay for a crisis we did not cause. That struggle continues today. Austerity Britain The Tory-led Westminster government launched an assault on public sector pensions, seeking to make millions of workers including firefighters pay more, work longer and still receive less when they retire. The FBU has fought a...

Fighting fires – firefighter organising in the UK

8 | International Union Rights | 26/1 FOCUS | UNION RIGHTS OF STATE ADMINISTRATION AND ESSENTIAL SERVICES WORKERS Fighting fires – firefighter organising in the UK Last year, the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) celebrated our centenary as the representative voice of firefighters across the UK. Our celebration was cause for much reflection on our role at home and internationally in developing our service and protecting our members. One hundred years ago organising firefighters into trade unions was heavily proscribed in the UK. There were hundreds of small local brigades, with almost half within police fire brigades and therefore closed to trade unionism. National funding and national standards were nonexistent . Poorly funded local arrangements meant fragmented services according to luck and circumstance, rather than risk. Firefighters’ generally lived and worked at their fire station, often for shifts of 100 hours a week. They were paid a pittance. The ‘Fireman’s Trade Union’ (FTU) was formed in 1918, during the great drive to unionise workers that swept through much of the industrialised world. The union would struggle to recruit more than a few thousand members in its early years. It was initially denied the right to bargain collectively and to strike. But the union allied itself with the wider trade union movement and affiliated to the Labour Party during the 1920s. It fought to establish a national legislative framework for firefighting during the 1930s and organised the influx of auxiliaries drafted into the fire service before and during the Second World War, leading to a significant growth in membership and influence. This enabled the FBU to play a central role in shaping the post-war fire service architecture. The union was instrumental in establishing collective bargaining on pay and conditions through the National Joint Council in 1947 – a body that exists to this day. We also supported the national stakeholder forum, the Central Fire Brigades Advisory Council (CFBAC), established at the time and which oversaw improvements for the next half century. The union won national standards of fire cover and campaigned for better equipment and training for firefighters. The union took its first industrial action, the spit-and-polish work to rule in the early 1950s and its first national strike action in 1977, winning a pay formula and a 42-hour week. The union established high levels of membership density in the industry – around 90 percent – which has been crucial in making and defending gains. The neoliberal turn The FBU has faced relentless attacks on our right to organise over the past forty years, starting with the Thatcher administration in 1979. Successive governments have threatened to roll back our fire and rescue service through cuts, reorganisation and antiunion legislation. Chief fire officers tried to get firefighters exempted from health and safety legislation, while central government attacked national standards of fire cover, building regulations and other fire safety matters. Ministers tried in vain to introduce privatisation into our public service, meeting a robust response from the union at every turn. Sadly the advent of Tony Blair’s new Labour government in 1997 did not improve the situation. In fact that administration weakened fire safety law, torn up the national framework, scrapped much of the national infrastructure for fire safety standards (such as the CFBAC) and tried to impose a regional fire control model. The FBU fought a bitter battle to increase firefighters’ pay in 2002-03 and faced outrageous attacks from leading Labour ministers. The union also fought many local battles, including taking strike action to defend local services. The last decade has seen the fire and rescue service in the UK battered by the economic downturn and by central government austerity. The Tory-led governments since 2010 have reduced central funding by more than 40 percent, cutting one-in-five firefighter jobs in the process and damaging national resilience to fire and other hazards firefighters tackle. This unprecedented austerity was part of making workers’ pay for a crisis we did not cause. That struggle continues today. Austerity Britain The Tory-led Westminster government launched an assault on public sector pensions, seeking to make millions of workers including firefighters pay more, work longer and still receive less when they retire. The FBU has fought a...

Are NHS-employed musculoskeletal physiotherapists in England mis-diagnosing Cauda Equina syndrome?

Purpose: This study builds on a retrospective study presented at Physiotherapy UK conference in 2017. This study had assessed and quantified claims of alleged mis-diagnosis of Cauda Equina Syndrome (CES) by self employed physiotherapists in the UK, notified to the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy's professional liability insurance brokers. Claims of negligence against NHS employed physiotherapists in England are covered by NHS Resolution (formerly known as the NHS Litigation Authority - NHSLA). This is an arms length body of Westminster Government that manages negligence and other claims in England's health provider organisations.This retrospective study sought to quantify prevalence of mis-diagnosis claims against NHS-employed musculoskeletal physiotherapists in England, to compare with the findings from the previous study.

Managing budget cuts in Edinburgh’s sport and recreation services: progressive localism in a resilient local authority?

ABSTRACTWhile the Westminster government’s class-driven austerity is UK-wide, Scottish social democracy influences how it is conceptualised and resisted. The Scottish Parliament’s limited devolved powers and a broken system of local government funding – with roots in both Scottish and Westminster Governments – leaves little room for challenging austerity. Responding to increased demand for services and financial constraints, Edinburgh Council’s ‘transformation programme’ sought a leaner, agile council to promote community resilience. As a discretionary service, protected by a weak legislative requirement, sport received significant cuts. Using interviews with policy actors, this article contends that, by embracing the conservative concept of resilience over the more critical concept of resourcefulness, the council’s management of cuts revolved around financial savings and income generation not socially just progressive localism. The leisure trust’s success in managing cuts encouraged more, mirroring the argument that, in resilient councils, councillors think the ‘outer organisation’ can be diminished without damaging the core. This accelerated neoliberal processes pre-dating austerity. Apparent progressive localism from asset transfers downplays how, driven by financial savings, this empowered some middle-class individuals while deflecting attention from the state’s withdrawal from promoting social justice. A campaign to save a leisure pool in a deprived area saw arguments for an ethical ‘play’ space to support community resilience. However, within neoliberalism’s ‘cracks and fissures’, protestors encouraged council support for community management – later rescinded amidst much acrimony – for a facility they could never run progressively.

Canadian governance in transition: Multilevel governance in the digital era

AbstractWhile the digital revolution has created new pressures and tensions for governing institutions in Canada, a broad discussion of the evolution of the Canadian Westminster governance ecosystem has yet to occur in earnest. The article seeks to contribute to such a discussion. We identify three related trends shaping the Canadian governance context: the rise of digital culture, the disintermediation of traditional authorities, and the increasingly distributed nature of governance. We then draw on scholarly literature surrounding “multilevel governance” to help contextualize these trends, and identify key tensions and needs related to the increasingly pressing imperative to develop a “made‐in‐Canada” governance approach that is well attuned to the needs of the digital era. We conclude by suggesting that such an approach will require a new style of leadership, one that privileges agility and resilience and that is issue‐based and outcome‐focused, rather than constrained by jurisdictional silos or narrowly conceived institutional mandates.

Bovine Tuberculosis and Badger Culling in England: A Utilitarian Analysis of Policy Options

Bovine tuberculosis (bovine TB) is an important animal health policy issue in Britain, which impacts farmers, the public, domestic farmed cattle and the wild badger population. The Westminster government’s badger culling policy in England, which began in 2013, has caused considerable controversy. This is in part because the Independent Scientific Group advised against culling, based on the Randomised Badger Culling Trial. Those opposed to badger culling support more stringent cattle-based measures and the vaccination of badgers. This paper argues for ethical analysis of public policy options which impact sentient species. It provides a summary Animal Welfare Impact Assessment of (1) a do-nothing approach, (2) badger culling, and (3) badger vaccination. A utilitarian analysis is then applied to these policy options considering human wellbeing and animal welfare. The analysis compares a badger culling policy that achieves a 19% reduction in bovine TB incidence, a badger vaccination model achieving a 12.5% reduction, and a do-nothing approach. Policy options are assessed over 9 years and a longer timeframe, and uncertainty is considered. The analysis finds that non-culling approaches, particularly badger vaccination, result in greater total utility, compared to badger culling. Badger culling causes 30% reduction in the badger population in England as well as substantial harms due to the culling process. Culling is opposed by public opinion and is associated with considerable risks and uncertainty. In contrast, non-culling approaches, such as cattle-based measures and badger vaccination, are supported by public opinion and are not associated with such risks.

Bovine Tuberculosis and Badger Control in Britain: Science, Policy and Politics

Bovine tuberculosis (bovine TB) is the most economically important animal health policy issue in Britain. The problem of what to do about badgers has plagued successive governments since a dead badger was discovered with bovine TB in 1971. Successive Labour governments (1997–2010) oversaw the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) from 1998 to 2006. Despite the RBCT recommendation against culling, the 2010–2015 Coalition government implemented pilot badger culls. This paper provides an account of the evolution of bovine TB and badger control policy, focusing on the 1997–2010 Labour, the 2010–2015 Coalition and the 2015-present Conservative governments. Interviews with bovine TB policy stakeholders supplement discussion of the development of bovine TB policy. The paper discusses the science and politics of bovine TB policy, in which there are different badger control policies in Westminster, Welsh and Scottish governments. Badger control is a highly polarised issue, and the Coalition and Conservative governments have been heavily criticised for a culling policy opposed by the independent scientific community. Recent governments have defended badger culling on the basis of veterinary advice and experience in countries such as New Zealand. The paper concludes with two key recommendations to inform controversial animal health and welfare policy issues such as bovine TB. First, mandatory Animal Welfare Impact Assessment provides objective data on the impacts of policy options on cows and badgers. Second, robust ethical analysis, conducted by independent experts using established moral frameworks, should be applied to animal health and welfare issues for the benefit of decision makers.

Prostitution in (and out of) policy on violence against women and girls in the UK

The extent to which prostitution is addressed in Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) policy in the UK varies by nation, region and local area. Current Westminster government policy frames prostitution in terms of associated harm and exploitation, not as harm and exploitation, in sharp contrast to Scotland and some local areas. This short article extends Liz Kelly's (1988) continuum of violence against women to prostitution, drawing on definitions of VAWG, research evidence on harms and conceptual links between men's abusive practices. For policy, this means a re-orientation towards specialist support for women, including to leave prostitution, and seeking to end demand. There are also opportunities for Westminster government policy to create consistency in VAWG prevention work and sexual exploitation of children through a more coherent analysis of gendered violations and violences. While the focus is on UK policy, the case for including prostitution in strategic approaches to VAWG will have wider resonance.

How wages compare

In the autumn, the NHS Pay Review Body (RB) will take evidence from government, employers and nurses' unions. It will then deliberate before making recommendations on what should be a pay rise in April 2017. But as NHS nurses know only too well, this supposedly independent system has been compromised by top down pay freezes initiated by the Westminster government as part of its 'austerity' measures.

Devolution of power, revolution in public health?

On 8 May 2015, the Conservative party won an unexpected majority in the UK general election.1 Commentators argued that a potentially decisive factor was concern in England about the Scottish National Party (SNP) forcing a minority Labour government to ‘dance to the SNP’s tune.’2 Meanwhile the SNP won a historic number of seats in Scotland, capturing 56 of the 59 Westminster constituencies. The election took place against a backdrop of debate about the future of the UK. Although the Scottish independence referendum was lost, it was widely agreed that the status quo no longer remained feasible. At the same time, there is pressure to revisit Welsh devolution3 and the Westminster government has proposed devolving certain powers to locally elected decision-makers in English regions.4 Meanwhile, the new Conservative government has committed to a referendum on continuing European Union membership, reflecting calls for ‘Brexit’.5 Although initially emanating from those on the right of the political spectrum, there is now some support from the left,6 making it a real possibility and likely to trigger a second Scottish referendum. One way or another, substantial political change is looming. If we conceive of ‘health’ as ‘health care’ (as many political scientists do), it could be argued that further devolution has little significance since responsibility for the NHS is already devolved to each national administration.7 Yet, most of the major determinants of population health and health inequalities lie outside the health system, often in areas for which responsibility has so far remained in Westminster.8,9 For example, macro-economic and welfare policies have large health impacts, potentially more so than health services and,10 while the relatively modest scale of devolution has not yet led to marked divergence in such policies, this looks set to change. We apply a political science framework focussing on ideas, interests and institutions to demonstrate potential opportunities and threats to public health arising from political change, so that researchers and practitioners can better engage with the political determinants of health.