Western Tropical Pacific Ocean Research Articles

Correcting Subseasonal Forecast Errors with an Explainable ANN to Understand Misrepresented Sources of Predictability of European Summer Temperatures

Abstract Subseasonal forecasts are challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning models alike. Forecasting 2-m temperature (t2m) with a lead time of 2 or more weeks requires a forward model to integrate multiple complex interactions, like oceanic and land surface conditions leading to predictable weather patterns. NWP models represent these interactions imperfectly, meaning that in certain conditions, errors accumulate and model predictability deviates from real predictability, often for poorly understood reasons. To advance that understanding, this paper corrects conditional errors in NWP forecasts with an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN postprocesses ECMWF extended-range summer temperature forecasts by learning to correct the ECMWF-predicted probability that monthly t2m in western and central Europe exceeds the climatological median. Predictors are objectively selected from ECMWF forecasts themselves, and from states at initialization, i.e., the ERA5 reanalysis. The latter allows the ANN to account for sources of predictability that are biased in the NWP model itself. We attribute ANN corrections with two explainable artificial intelligence (AI) tools. This reveals that certain erroneous forecasts relate to tropical western Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures at initialization. We conjecture that the atmospheric teleconnection following this source of predictability is imperfectly represented by the ECMWF model. Correcting the associated conditional errors with the ANN improves forecast skill. Significance Statement We want to understand occasions in which a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model fails to forecast a predictable event existing in the real world. For forecasts of European summer weather more than 2 weeks in advance, real predictable events are rare. When misrepresented by the model, predicted future states become needlessly biased. We diagnose these missed opportunities with an explainable neural network. The neural network is aware of the initial state and learns to correct the NWP forecast on occasions when it misrepresents a teleconnection from the western tropical Pacific Ocean to Europe. The explainable architecture can be useful for other applications in which conditional model errors need to be understood and corrected.

Phylogeny, ancestral ranges and reclassification of sand dollars

Classification of the Class Echinoidea is under significant revision in light of emerging molecular phylogenetic evidence. In particular, the sister-group relationships within the superorder Luminacea (Echinoidea: Irregularia) have been considerably updated. However, the placement of many families remains largely unresolved due to a series of incongruent evidence obtained from morphological, paleontological, and genetic data for the majority of extant representatives. In this study, we investigated the phylogenetic relationships of 25 taxa, belonging to eleven luminacean families. We proposed three new superfamilies: Astriclypeoidea, Mellitoidea, and Taiwanasteroidea (including Dendrasteridae, Taiwanasteridae, Scutellidae, and Echinarachniidae), instead of the currently recognized superfamily Scutelloidea Gray, 1825. In light of the new data obtained from ten additional species, the historical biogeography reconstructed shows that the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans are the cradle for early sand dollar diversification. Hothouse conditions during the late Cretaceous and early Paleogene were coupled with diversification events of major clades of sand dollars. We also demonstrate that Taiwan fauna can play a key role in terms of understanding the major Cenozoic migration and dispersal events in the evolutionary history of Luminacea.

Morphology and molecular phylogeny of Pleurosigmapacificum sp. nov. (Pleurosigmataceae), a new tropical pelagic species from the Western Pacific Ocean.

A new species of pelagic diatom, Pleurosigmapacificumsp. nov., is described from the tropical Western Pacific Ocean. It has the typical features of Pleurosigma, including a slightly sigmoid raphe, intersected transverse and oblique striae, and loculate areolae with external opening slits and internal poroids. Morphologically, P.pacificum belongs to a species group of Pleurosigma with lanceolate valves, including P.atlanticum Heiden & Kolbe, P.nubecula W. Smith, P.indicum Simonsen, and P.simonsenii Hasle. However, P.pacificum differs by its smaller lanceolate valve and smaller intersection angle as well as elliptical areolae without a silica bar. The SSU rDNA and rbcL sequence data place P.pacificum in a basal position relative to other species of Pleurosigma. Our molecular phylogenetic analyses did not support the monophyly of lanceolate and slightly sigmoid species. Thus, the sigmoidality of valve outline cannot be considered as a criterion to define the species group.

Contribution of PDO to Decadal Variations of Glaze Dipole Pattern in China

Abstract Based on the in situ observations, reanalysis, and model simulation, the variations in glaze dipole pattern in China and its underlying physical mechanism have been explored. The glaze dipole pattern features an out-of-phase relationship between winter glaze in the south of the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and northern China, accompanied by pronounced interdecadal variation around the late 1970s. The results from synoptic analyses suggest that cold air brought by the northerly winds and warm moist air by the southwesterly winds, as well as the occurrence of inversion layer are vital to the glaze weather in the south of YRV. Further analyses indicate that the interdecadal shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) contributes largely to variations in glaze dipole pattern. Specifically, the warm PDO provides a beneficial environment for the occurrence of glaze dipole pattern by stimulating the tropical–extratropical circulation configuration with the deepened East Asian trough, strengthened East Asian westerly jet, anomalous anticyclone over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, and cyclone over the southern Tibetan Plateau at the decadal time scale. Consequently, the enhanced moisture transport brought by southwesterly and cold air intrusion induced by the deepened East Asian trough benefit the glaze weather in the south of YRV, while the decreased precipitation and a much lower temperature in northern China depress the generation of glaze. Moreover, the results from the CAM4 model simulation indicate the atmospheric circulation anomalies forced by PDO-like SST can roughly reproduce the extratropical configuration related to the glaze, but it has difficulties in capturing the tropical circulation anomalies. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand how the glaze dipole pattern in China responds to climate anomalies, which focuses on the spatial–temporal evolution of glaze days and its underlying physical mechanism. This study highlights the important role of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in the interdecadal variations in glaze dipole pattern, and it gives a clear clarification to demonstrate the impacts of Pacific decadal oscillation on the climatological background for the occurrence of glaze. Our results provide a guide on what drives the interdecadal variation in the glaze dipole pattern and help to understand the climate dynamic mechanism of variations in freezing events in China.

Influence of shallow hydrothermal fluid release on the functioning of phytoplankton communities

In the Western Tropical South Pacific (WTSP) Ocean, a hotspot of dinitrogen fixation has been identified. The survival of diazotrophs depends, among others, on the availability of dissolved iron (DFe) largely originating, as recently revealed, from shallow hydrothermal sources located along the Tonga-Kermadec arc that fertilize the Lau Basin with this element. On the opposite, these fluids, released directly close to the photic layer, can introduce numerous trace metals at concentrations that can be toxic to surface communities. Here, we performed an innovative 9-day experiment in 300 L reactors onboard the TONGA expedition, to examine the effects of hydrothermal fluids on natural plankton communities in the WTSP Ocean. Different volumes of fluids were mixed with non-hydrothermally influenced surface waters (mixing ratio from 0 to 14.5%) and the response of the communities was studied by monitoring numerous stocks and fluxes (phytoplankton biomass, community composition, net community production, N2fixation, thiol production, organic carbon and metal concentrations in exported material). Despite an initial toxic effect of hydrothermal fluids on phytoplankton communities, these inputs led to higher net community production and N2fixation rates, as well as elevated export of organic matter relative to control. This fertilizing effect was achieved through detoxification of the environment, rich in potentially toxic elements (e.g., Cu, Cd, Hg), likely by resistantSynechococcusecotypes able to produce strong binding ligands, especially thiols (thioacetamide-like and glutathione-like compounds). The striking increase of thiols quickly after fluid addition likely detoxified the environment, rendering it more favorable for phytoplankton growth. Indeed, phytoplankton groups stressed by the addition of fluids were then able to recover important growth rates, probably favored by the supply of numerous fertilizing trace metals (notably Fe) from hydrothermal fluids and new nitrogen provided by N2fixation. These experimental results are in good agreement within-situobservations, proving the causal link between the supply of hydrothermal fluids emitted at shallow depth into the surface layer and the intense biological productivity largely supported by diazotrophs in the WTSP Ocean. This study highlights the importance of considering shallow hydrothermal systems for a better understanding of the biological carbon pump.

Nanophytoplankton and microphytoplankton in the western tropical Pacific Ocean: its community structure, cell size and carbon biomass

Phytoplankton, as a crucial component of the marine ecosystem, plays a fundamental role in global biogeochemical cycles. This study investigated the composition and distribution of phytoplankton in the western Tropical Pacific Ocean using the Utermöhl method and carbon volume conversion. We identified four primary groups of phytoplankton: dinoflagellates (181 species), diatoms (73 species), cyanobacteria (4 species), and chrysophyceae (2 species). The clustering analysis classified phytoplankton into four groups based on their composition, which were found to be closely related to ocean currents. Diatoms were highly abundant in areas influenced by current-seamount interaction. In contrast, areas with little influence from ocean currents were dominated by Trichodesmium. The majority of phytoplankton had an equivalent spherical diameter (ESD) of 2-12 μm, with a few exceeding 25 μm. Although nanophytoplankton (ESD = 2-20 µm) dominated cell abundance, microphytoplankton (ESD = 20-200 µm) contributed significantly to carbon biomass (792.295 mg m-3). This study yielded valuable insights into the distribution and composition of phytoplankton in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, shedding light on the relationship between species distribution and ocean currents. In addition, it provided fundamental information regarding cell size and carbon biomass within the region.

Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnection to the Location of ENSO Heating

Abstract The Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to anomalous convection in the tropical western and eastern Pacific Ocean is distinctly different. The response to westward-located heating has a meridional dipole in the South Pacific with large zonal scale and appears unable to be interpreted simply as a stationary Rossby wave train that disperses poleward and eastward from a tropical source like the meridionally arched response to eastward-located heating. This study investigates the cause of this asymmetry by examining the daily evolution of the response to suddenly switching on steady diabatic heating over a western and central/eastern equatorial Pacific location using large-ensemble integrations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. We focus on the austral winter months when the subtropical jet supports the development of an effective Rossby wave source in the subtropical westerlies and acts as a waveguide. We show that the subtropical jet strongly influences the height response to the western tropical Pacific heating, promoting prominent zonal circumglobal propagation. Development of a transient eddy feedback in the extratropical storm track after approximately 10 days appears to play a primary role in establishing the time-mean response, which we test through comparison with similar experiments conducted using a simplified linear model. Conversely, the height anomalies for eastern tropical Pacific heating, farther away from the subtropical jet core, have larger meridional propagation, dispersing in a typical Hoskins–Karoly manner into the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, while the transient eddy feedback plays a secondary role for the establishment of the steady response.

Diel variations in planktonic ciliate community structure in the northern South China Sea and tropical Western Pacific

Though diel variations are geographically widespread phenomena among phytoplankton and zooplankton, knowledge is limited regarding diel variations in planktonic ciliate (microzooplankton) community structure. In this study, we analyzed diel variations in community structure of planktonic ciliates in the northern South China Sea (nSCS) and tropical Western Pacific (tWP). Hydrological characteristics during day and night were slightly different over both the nSCS and tWP, while ciliate average abundance at night was clearly higher than in the day in the upper 200 m. In both the nSCS and tWP, abundance proportions of large size-fraction (> 30 μm) aloricate ciliates at night were higher than in the day. While for tintinnids, abundance proportion of large lorica oral diameter at night were lower than in the day. The relationship between environmental factors and ciliate abundance pointed out that depth and temperature were main factors influencing aloricate ciliate and tintinnid in both day and night. For some dominant tintinnid species, chlorophyll a was another important factor influencing their diel vertical distribution. Our results provide fundamental data for better understanding the mechanisms of planktonic ciliate community diel variation in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean.

Diversity of the genus Avrainvillea (Dichotomosiphonaceae, Chlorophyta): new insights and eight new species

ABSTRACT Avrainvillea is a green macroalgal genus of the family Dichotomosiphonaceae (order Bryopsidales). Many species have been morphologically described, but few studies have addressed the genetic diversity of this genus. Based on a rich collection of specimens from the tropical Western Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we aimed to (1) reassess Avrainvillea species diversity through species delimitation analyses, (2) update their distribution ranges, (3) reconstruct the species phylogenetic relationships, based on a concatenated multilocus matrix (tufA, rbcL and 18S rDNA) and (4) revise their taxonomy and describe new species where necessary. Our species delimitation approach highlighted 23 secondary species hypotheses in our collection, including nine known and currently accepted species, four species complexes (A. amadelpha, A. lacerata, A. erecta-obscura and A. mazei-nigricans), and eight new species for which we provide descriptions: A. laciniata (Papua New Guinea), A. minima and A. pyrochroma (Madagascar), A. mollis and A. kanakiensis (New Caledonia), A. pavonina (Fiji), A. spongiosa (Pacific) and A. corticata (Indo-Pacific). We also propose the resurrection of A. gracillima Børgesen, the reinstatement of Avrainvillea lacerata var. robustior A.Gepp & E.S.Gepp, and the synonymy of A. rotumensis A.D.R.N’Yeurt, D.S.Littler & Littler with A. pacifica A.Gepp & E.S.Gepp. We complemented the taxonomic work by providing a contemporary dichotomous key for morphological identification of all extant species. Our multilocus phylogeny included 25 species of Dichotomosiphonaceae and recovered Avrainvillea as a polyphyletic group, divided into three distinct clades, with Cladocephalus luteofuscus positioned within the group. The species determined using the species delimitation approach were all monophyletic and 19 of them were highly supported. For the first time, this study also provided genetic sequences for A. asarifolia, A. clavatiramea, A. digitata, A. elliottii, A. fulva, A. gracillima, A. geppiorum, A. pacifica and A. obscura. HIGHLIGHTS • Avrainvillea is not monophyletic. • Reassessment of Avrainvillea species diversity delimited 23 secondary species hypotheses. • Eight new species of Avrainvillea were discovered in the Indo-Pacific.

Diversity, habitat associations and stock structure of odontocete cetaceans in the waters of American Samoa, 2003-06

Little is known about the species composition, distribution, abundance or stock structure of odontocetes in the central and western tropical Pacific Ocean, including those inhabiting the US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) waters of American Samoa. While some information on species presence in this region has been gleaned from anecdotal sightings and whaling and stranding records, odontocete diversity in the waters of American Samoa has never been formally investigated. This lack of information precludes efforts to determine the sustainability of cetacean populations within US EEZ waters. This paper reports on the first dedicated surveys to document the presence and distribution of odontocete cetaceans in the waters of American Samoa. A series of small-boat photo-identification and biopsy surveys for cetaceans were conducted in the nearshore waters of Tutuila during 2003-06. In addition, ship-based visual surveys were conducted in the waters surrounding the Manu‘a Islands, Rose Atoll and Swains Island in summer 2006. A total of 58 groups of odontocete cetaceans were encountered during both small-boat and ship-based surveys: spinner dolphins (Stenella longirostris, n=34), rough-toothed dolphins (Steno bredanensis, n=10), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus, n=3), false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens, n=5), bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus., n=1), dwarf sperm whales (Kogia sima, n=1), short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus, n=1), and three groups of unidentified odontocetes. Photographs were analysed for quality and individuals with distinctive markings were selected for entry into a photo-identification catalogue. The resultant catalogue included 46 spinner dolphins, 41 rough-toothed dolphins, 2 bottlenose dolphins, 5 false killer whales, 4 pilot whales, 1 dwarf sperm whale and 4 sperm whales. Thirteen spinner dolphins and 14 rough-toothed dolphins were sighted in multiple years. To investigate stock structure, spinner dolphin genetic data were used to compare mitochondrial control region genetic diversity and allele frequencies between American Samoa and the Hawaiian Islands. American Samoa had a higher genetic diversity, and populations at the two locations were genetically distinct (FST = 0.21). The high diversity at American Samoa indicates that spinner dolphins at this location are not reproductively isolated, but the data do not rule out the possibility that these dolphins may be demographically isolated on ecological timescales.

Moisture Source for the Precipitation of Tropical Cyclones over the Pacific Ocean through a Lagrangian Approach

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are an important component of the hydrological cycle at tropical latitudes. In this study, we investigated the origin of precipitation associated with TCs formed from 1980 to 2018 over the Pacific Ocean in three subbasins: the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), central and east Pacific Ocean (NEPAC), and South Pacific Ocean (SPO) basins. The analysis was performed throughout the TC lifetime during genesis, when they reached the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the dissipation stage. The backward trajectories of all precipitant atmospheric parcels residing over the TC locations from the global outputs of the Lagrangian Flexible Particle (FLEXPART) dispersion model fed by the ERA-Interim dataset were used to identify moisture sources. The South and East China Seas and the western tropical North Pacific Ocean were identified as the principal moisture sources in the WNP basin, while the atmospheric moisture that precipitated mainly came from the eastern tropical North and South Pacific Ocean in the NEPAC basin, followed by the Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, the Coral Sea, western tropical South Pacific Ocean, and northern Australia are the origins of the moisture in the SPO. The mean moisture uptake per TC was higher during the hurricane category than during any other stage in each basin.

Plastic ingestion and trophic transfer in an endangered top predator, the longfin mako shark (Isurus paucus), from the tropical western Pacific Ocean.

Plastic pollution has become a global environmental problem of major concern. However, the plastic contamination in the marine top predators, particularly in endangered species, is incompletely understood because of the limited amount of data on their presence in the digestive system and prey. This study investigated the stomach contents of an endangered but poorly known shark species, the longfin mako shark (Isurus paucus), found in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We examined the plastics in this female specimen (1.22-m fork length) and her prey to assess the potential for trophic transfer of microplastics. Polypropylene bottle cap and lollipop packaging, longnose lancetfish (Alepisaurus ferox), and squid were found in the stomach of I. paucus, while no apparent internal injuries were noted. The microplastic fragments and granules, confirmed by laser direct infrared spectroscopy, were found in the digestive system of the intact squid ingested by I. paucus, suggesting that trophic transfer may occur between shark and prey. These results indicate that I. paucus is vulnerable to plastic ingestion and provide evidence of trophic transfer of microplastics in shark species. Our study emphasizes the need to evaluate the potential ecotoxicological consequences of increasing plastic pollution to endangered marine top predators.

Microbial food webs share similar biogeographic patterns and driving mechanisms with depths in oligotrophic tropical western Pacific Ocean.

Microbial food web (MFW) dominates the energy flow in oligotrophic tropical open ocean pelagic ecosystems. Understanding biogeographic patterns and driving mechanisms of key components of the MFW is one of the central topics in current marine ecology. Investigations were conducted along an 1,100-km horizontal gradient and in the full-water column vertical gradient of the oligotrophic tropical western Pacific Ocean. High-throughput sequencing and association networking methods were used to analyze the community structure and interspecies interactions of MFW. The structure of MFW significantly differed with depths, but not across horizontal gradients. Bacteria and microeukaryotes were interconnected and had more predominantly positive and negative linkages in the aphotic layers. Key components of MFW exhibited similar biogeographic patterns and driving mechanisms. Geographic distance exerted minimal effects on the distribution patterns of the microbial food web, while environmental factors played more important roles, especially for temperature and inorganic nutrients. Stochastic processes were more important in the microbial food webs of the 5-200 m layer than the >500 m layer, and drift explained the majority of stochastic processes. Moreover, only a weak but not significant driving force for North Equatorial Current on the east-west connectivity of the microbial food web was found in the upper layers. This knowledge is a critical fundamental data for future planning of marine protected areas targeting the protection of tuna fishing in the western Pacific Ocean.

The effects of seawater thermodynamic parameters on the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the tropical western Pacific Ocean

The continuous expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is a microcosm of marine hypoxia problem. Based on a survey in M4 seamount area of Tropical Western Pacific Ocean, the effects of thermodynamic parameters on OMZ were discussed. The study showed thermodynamic parameters mainly affect the upper oxycline of OMZ. The increase in temperature aggravates seawater stratification, which not only shallows oxycline but also increases the strength of DO stratification, promoting the expansion of OMZ. Based on relationships between thermodynamic parameters, water mass and DO, OMZ in this area is defined as follows: the water layer with low DO between the lower boundary of high-salt area and 1000 m. Moreover, the study showed that though there is no “seamount effect” on a scale of 3000 m, low-value areas of DO form at the bottom of seamount. This study will provide an evidence for expansion of OMZ exacerbated by global warming.

Climate Feedback to Stratospheric Aerosol Forcing: The Key Role of the Pattern Effect

Abstract Volcanic aerosol forcing has previously been found to cause a weak global mean temperature response, as compared with CO2 radiative forcing of equal magnitude: its efficacy is supposedly low, but for reasons that are not fully understood. To investigate this, we perform idealized, time-invariant stratospheric sulfate aerosol forcing simulations with the MPI-ESM-1.2 and compare them with 0.5 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 runs. While the early decades of the aerosol forcing simulations are characterized by strong negative feedback (i.e., low efficacy), the feedback weakens on the decadal to centennial time scale. Although this effect is qualitatively also found in CO2-warming simulations, it is more pronounced for stratospheric aerosol forcing. The strong early and weak late cooling feedbacks compensate, leading to an equilibrium efficacy of approximately 1 in all simulations. The 0.5 × CO2 cooling simulations also exhibit strong feedback changes over time, albeit less than in the idealized aerosol forcing simulations. This suggests that the underlying cause for the feedback change is not exclusively specific to aerosol forcing. One critical region for the feedback differences between simulations with negative and positive radiative forcing is the tropical Indo-Pacific warm-pool region (30°S–30°N, 50°E–160°W). In the first decades of cooling, the temperature change in this region is stronger than the global average, whereas it is stronger outside it for 2 × CO2 warming. In cooling scenarios, this leads to an enhanced activation of the warm-pool region’s strongly negative lapse-rate feedback. Significance Statement Large volcanic eruptions can enhance the scattering aerosol layer in the stratosphere, which leads to a global cooling for a few years. Surprisingly, Earth has been found to cool less from radiative flux perturbations from stratospheric aerosol forcing, in comparison with how much it warms as a result of increases in CO2 concentration. We find that specific surface temperature change patterns after volcanic eruptions cause this effect. The temperature change in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Ocean determines how much global temperature change is needed to regain radiative equilibrium. Our findings contribute to understanding the climate response to volcanic eruptions and are relevant for understanding the mechanisms of climate change due to changes in CO2 concentration.

The diel vertical distribution and carbon biomass of the zooplankton community in the Caroline Seamount area of the western tropical Pacific Ocean

Zooplankton can affect and regulate the biological carbon pump in the biogeochemical cycles of marine ecosystems through diel vertical migration (DVM) behaviour. The diel vertical distribution and migration of a zooplankton community were studied at a continuous survey station in the Caroline Seamount area of the western tropical Pacific Ocean. Using a MultiNet sampling system, 346 zooplankton species/taxa were collected and identified. The vertical distribution patterns of abundance and composition of the zooplankton community differed between daytime and nighttime. The highest biodiversity index occurred in the 100–200-m ocean depth layer, but some zooplankton species remained in the deep-water layer below 300 m. The DVM patterns of the various dominant species differed, even when the species belonged to the same order or family. Dissolved oxygen and seawater temperature were the main environmental factors affecting the diel vertical distribution of the zooplankton community. The oxygen minimum zone was identified as performing the dual role of “ecological barrier” and “refuge” for zooplankton. The active carbon flux mediated by the zooplankton DVM in the Caroline Seamount area was 14.5 mg C/(m2·d). Our findings suggest that zooplankton DVM can affect and mediate the biological carbon pump in the Caroline Seamount area.

Linking the Antarctic sea ice extent changes during 1979–2020 to seasonal modes of Antarctic sea ice variability

The Antarctic sea ice extent slowly expanded through the four-decade-long satellite era until 2014 when the expansion came to a halt, followed by a rapid contraction in the next couple of years. This sudden unexpected trend reversal has sparked considerable research interest and several mechanisms have been proposed to explain it; however, much remains to be explored. In this study, we show that the long-term increasing trend in the Antarctic sea ice extent and its recent reversal can be largely explained by the first, second and fourth empirical orthogonal function mode of sea ice variability in austral summer, autumn and spring, respectively. We illustrate that the sea ice variability represented by the three modes is mostly consistent with what is expected from the anomalous atmospheric circulations associated with planetary wavetrains that are triggered by anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) and convective activities over the Southern Indian and Pacific Oceans. More specifically, the results suggest a teleconnection between the increasing periods in the Antarctic sea ice extent in the past four decades and the positive SST anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The opposite occurs over the decreasing period. Accordingly, the same mechanisms, in different phases, have been associated with the periods of increasing and decreasing Antarctic sea ice extent.

Mesozooplankton biodiversity, vertical assemblages, and diel migration in the western tropical Pacific Ocean revealed by eDNA metabarcoding and morphological methods

Zooplankton plays a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, due to issues with morphological identification and sampling methods, knowledge of their biodiversity and community structure in the vast pelagic zone of the western tropical Pacific Ocean is still limited compared with other areas in the North Pacific Ocean. In this study, we used environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding and morphological identification approaches to investigate mesozooplankton’s biodiversity and vertical assemblages in the western tropical Pacific Ocean from the surface to 1000 m deep. Two different barcodes were used in metabarcoding: mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and small subunit ribosomal RNA genes (18S). Our results showed that eDNA metabarcoding revealed 2-4 times more medusae taxa than morphological processing. Both methods detected that small copepod species were dominant in the community and six of the top-10 most abundant copepod genera overlapped. Morphological results showed that mesozooplankton communities were classified into three groups: epipelagic (0–200 m), upper mesopelagic (200-500 m), and lower mesopelagic (500–1000 m). And eDNA results showed distinct vertical variations of mesozooplankton communities within the epipelagic. Both methods showed that the dominant genera Clausocalanus, Paracalanus, and Calocalanus exhibited diel patterns in relative abundance, demonstrating that the eDNA method can capture diel vertical migration (DVM) signals of copepods. Overall, our results indicate that eDNA metabarcoding is an effective and efficient tool for the study and monitoring of mesozooplankton diversity and vertical assemblages in the open sea.

Interannual Variability of Autumn Precipitation Over the Greater Mekong Subregion

AbstractThis study investigates the interannual variability in autumn precipitation over the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) during the period 1981–2019 and its possible causes. Statistical analysis indicates that GMS autumn precipitation showed a seesaw pattern between the central–southern and northeastern GMS over interannual timescales. The tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), reflected in the tropical northeastern Pacific SST index (TNEPI), significantly modulate anomalous GMS autumn precipitation. When the TNEPI is higher than normal, the SSTAs pattern prevails during autumn, with warmer SSTAs in the tropical eastern Pacific and western Indian Ocean, and colder SSTAs in the tropical western Pacific and southeastern Indian Ocean. This SSTAs pattern excites an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere over the central–southern GMS and an anomalous cyclone over the northeastern GMS by the Gill–Matsuno mechanism. Subsequently, the anomalous anticyclone with anomalous descending motion results in below‐normal autumn precipitation over the central–southern GMS via a weakening of the convergence of water vapor from the tropical western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal. The anomalous cyclone on the northern flank of anomalous anticyclone, benefiting from water vapor supply from the Bay of Bengal, leads to above‐normal autumn precipitation over the northeastern GMS. The TNEPI, incorporating signals from the eastern‐Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and SSTAs associated with the Trans‐Niño index (TNI‐like), shows a stronger relationship with GMS autumn precipitation than individual indexes that describing the EP‐type ENSO, IOD or TNI‐like pattern. Therefore, the TNEPI can be considered an efficient predictor of GMS autumn precipitation.

Physical–empirical prediction model for the dominant mode of extreme high temperature events in eastern China during summer

The dominant mode of extreme high temperature events in eastern China during summer shows a dipole pattern with opposite anomalies over southern and northeastern China, which explains 25% of the variance. We document the limited prediction skill of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) for the dominant mode of these events. Based on the mechanisms related to the dominant mode, a physical–empirical model was established that improved the prediction of extreme high temperature events in eastern China, which will help in disaster prediction and mitigation. The physical connection between the dominant mode and the summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the western tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean was predicted well by the CFSv2 hindcasts, and thus the areal mean CFSv2-hindcast SSTs over the western tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean served as a predictor in the physical–empirical model. In the observations, the soil moisture over southern China in the preceding December (soil_Dec) combined the signal of the air–sea interactions over the tropical and northern extratropical Pacific Ocean, which induced anomalous SSTs in the Indian and western tropical Pacific oceans in the following summer and contributed to the dominant mode. Soil_Dec was therefore closely correlated with the dominant mode and was used as a predictor. The results of the one-year-leave cross-validation and independent hindcast showed that the time series of the dominant mode was better predicted by the physical–empirical model than by the CFSv2 hindcasts, with an improved correlation coefficient from insignificant to about 0.8, a root-mean-square error reduced by about 50% and an increased rate of same signs. The physical–empirical model showed advantages in the prediction of the dominant mode of summer extreme high temperature events over eastern China, which may be used in the prediction of other climate variables.