Western Route Research Articles

The Shifting Geopolitics of Russia’s Natural Gas Exports and Their Impact on EU-Russia Gas Relations

ABSTRACTIn the sphere of natural gas, Russia and the EU share an interdependent relationship: Russia is the single largest supplier of natural gas to the EU, while the EU is Russia’s largest gas export market. In May 2014, a deal was struck between Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation to enable large-scale Russian gas exports to China. What impact could this deal have on the EU-Russia gas relationship? This article analyses Russia’s existing and proposed gas production and export infrastructure for the delivery of natural gas to Europe and to China, and the extent to which increased gas exports to the East could result in the limitation of Russian gas exports to Europe. It is concluded that, due to its dependence on new gas production in eastern Siberia and the construction of new, purpose-built pipeline infrastructure, the Gazprom-CNPC deal of May 2014 will not have a significant impact on Russia’s gas exports from north-western Siberia to the EU. The launch of talks aimed at delivering Russian gas from the Yamal Peninsula to China via the ‘western route’ opened the first possibility for Russia to balance its gas exports between East and West. However, this is unlikely to generate price competition between Europe and China, due to Gazprom’s inability to extract a ‘European’ price for its gas exports to China. This suggests that Gazprom will not re-direct significant volumes away from Europe towards China, but rather will seek additional export volumes.

The Political and Economic Results of June 2015

In June 2015, the EU states extended for another six months the economic sanctions introduced against Russia, as before linking this issue to the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements. At the St Petersburg International Economic Forum held this month, several deals were concluded, the biggest among them being the sale, by Rosneft to BP, of a 20% stake in an East Siberian oil producer company; however, the negotiations on another deal in the natural gas sector – the construction of a second pipeline to Germany, the second Russian-Chinese pipeline for gas deliveries via the Western route, or a pipeline to Greece – are still in the phase of memorandums of intentions. The decision on moving the parliamentary election from December to September 2016 was approved in first reading; Alexei Kudrin’s initiative that it should be timed with the presidential election was supported neither by the RF President’s Executive Office nor the parliament.

Postglacial recolonization in a cold climate specialist in western Europe: patterns of genetic diversity in the adder (Vipera berus) support the central-marginal hypothesis.

Understanding the impact of postglacial recolonization on genetic diversity is essential in explaining current patterns of genetic variation. The central-marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts a reduction in genetic diversity from the core of the distribution to peripheral populations, as well as reduced connectivity between peripheral populations. While the CMH has received considerable empirical support, its broad applicability is still debated and alternative hypotheses predict different spatial patterns of genetic diversity. Using microsatellite markers, we analysed the genetic diversity of the adder (Vipera berus) in western Europe to reconstruct postglacial recolonization. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) analyses suggested a postglacial recolonization from two routes: a western route from the Atlantic Coast up to Belgium and a central route from the Massif Central to the Alps. This cold-adapted species likely used two isolated glacial refugia in southern France, in permafrost-free areas during the last glacial maximum. Adder populations further from putative glacial refugia had lower genetic diversity and reduced connectivity; therefore, our results support the predictions of the CMH. Our study also illustrates the utility of highly variable nuclear markers, such as microsatellites, and ABC to test competing recolonization hypotheses.

Wet-dry runoff correlation in Western Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, China

The Western Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is an important trans-basin diversion project to transfer water from the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries (water-exporting area), to the upstream of the Yellow River (water-importing area). The long-term hydrological data from 14 stream gauging stations in the Western Route area and techniques including the pre-whitening approach, non-parametric test, Bayes, law, variance analysis extrapolation, and Wavelet Analysis are applied to identify the streamflow characteristics and trends, streamflow time series cross-correlations, wetness-dryness encountering probability, and periodicities that occurred over the last 50 years. The results show that the water-exporting area, water-importing area, and the stretch downstream of the water-exporting have synchronization in high–low flow relationship, whereas they display non-synchronization in long-term evolution. This corresponds to the complicated and variable climate of the plateau region. There is no obvious increasing or decreasing trend in runoff at any gauging station. The best hydrological compensation probability for rivers where water is diverted is about 25% to 10%, and those rivers influenced significantly by diversion are the Jinsha and Yalong rivers. Proper planning and design of compensation reservoirs for the water-exporting area and stretch downstream of the water-exporting area can increase the hydrological compensation possibility from water-exporting area to the water-importing area, and reduce the impact on the stretch of river downstream of the water-exporting area.

A New Method for Determining Thickness of River Incision Layers in High Mountain and Deep River Valley Areas

In high mountain and deep river valley areas, geological materials of river valley evolution are often missing or incomplete. To address this problem, tectonic movements at project site are analyzed using mathematical statistics based on the analysis of formation and evolution history of river terraces, and then a new method to determine the thickness of river incision layers is proposed. Taking Jiata dam area at the Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China for an example, the reliability and reasonability of the proposed method are validated through a case study.

Out of the Black Sea: phylogeography of the invasive killer shrimp Dikerogammarus villosus across Europe.

The amphipod Dikerogammarus villosus has colonized most of the European main inland water bodies in less than 20 years, having deteriorating effect on the local benthic communities. Our aim was to reveal the species phylogeography in the native Black Sea area, to define the source populations for the colonization routes in continental Europe and for the newly established UK populations. We tested for the loss of genetic diversity between source and invasive populations as well as along invasion route. We tested also for isolation by distance. Thirty three native and invasive populations were genotyped for mtDNA (COI, 16S) and seven polymorphic nuclear microsatellites to assess cryptic diversity (presence of deeply divergent lineages), historical demography, level of diversity within lineage (e.g., number of alleles), and population structure. A wide range of methods was used, including minimum spanning network, molecular clock, Bayesian clustering and Mantel test. Our results identified that sea level and salinity changes during Pleistocene impacted the species phylogeography in the Black Sea native region with four differentiated populations inhabiting, respectively, the Dnieper, Dniester, Danube deltas and Durungol liman. The invasion of continental Europe is associated with two sources, i.e., the Danube and Dnieper deltas, which gave origin to two independent invasion routes (Western and Eastern) for which no loss of diversity and no isolation by distance were observed. The UK population has originated in the Western Route and, despite very recent colonization, no drastic loss of diversity was observed. The results show that the invasion of the killer shrimp is not associated with the costs of loosing genetic diversity, which may contribute to the success of this invader in the newly colonized areas. Additionally, while it has not yet occurred, it might be expected that future interbreeding between the genetically diversified populations from two independent invasion routes will potentially even enhance this success.

Comparative historical biogeography of three groups of Nearctic freshwater fishes across central Mexico

Biogeographic patterns of the three main Nearctic groups of continental fishes inhabiting river drainages in central Mexico (livebearing goodeids, southern Mexican notropins and species of Algansea, the last two representing independent lineages of cyprinids) were obtained and compared by following two approaches: an estimate of divergence times and using a well-defined biogeographic method. Three concordant biogeographic events were identified among the three groups, showing some evidence of a partially congruent evolutionary history. The analysed groups show at least three independent colonization events into central Mexico: two western routes, followed by the Goodeinae and members of Algansea, and an early Plateau route followed by southern notropins. The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of each of the three freshwater fish groups diversified in central Mexico in the Late Miocene. The lack of a strong congruence in their biogeographic patterns, and the differences in species richness among the three clades might be evidence for distinct patterns of diversification.

Seawater Intrusion Modeling on Groundwater Confined Aquifer in Semarang

The focus of this study is to identify and describe of a seawater intrusion in confined aquifer modelling in Semarang with a descriptive quantitative analytical method. The results showed potentially experiencing seawater intrusion which increased of 0.575 km2/years. Seawater intrusion models divide to 3 models are the western route have a maximum error is 27.9%, then the middle route have the maximum error is 41.1% and the eastern route have the maximum error is 40%. In 2035, the seawater intrusion on western route is predicted about 3.0km from the coastline, 4km for middle route, and about 3.25km for eastern route. This is one of the information that from right now, the management of a groundwater in the confined aquifer in Semarang is necessary to supervise and better and more optimal controlling

Modelling obsidian trade routes during late Neolithic in the south-east Banat region of Vrsac using GIS

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the possible trajectory of the movement of the obsidian that was brought to the region of present day Vrsac from Carpathian 1 and Carpathian 2 sources, located between Kosice and Miskolc (the present day border area between Hungary and Slovakia). This objective has been fulfilled using computer aided modelling performed within the constraints of geographic information system software based on the physical characteristics of the terrain and the reconstruction of paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic conditions in the period of the late Neolithic. The second largest obsidian collection in the territory of Vinca culture originates from the site of Potporanj, south of Vrsac. The abundance of finds indicates the importance this region had in the distribution of this resource during late Neolithic. In the paper the modelling of two different possibilities of land based distribution from the flow of the river Tisza are shown; the first from Perlez/Opovo (western route) and the other from Mure? (northern route), i.e. present day Arad and Timi?oara. The modelled results indicate the existence of a settlement patterning close to the modelled pathways in the period of Vinca culture.

How does the Amur River discharge flow over the northwestern continental shelf in the Sea of Okhotsk?

The paths of the Amur River discharge on the continental shelf in the Sea of Okhotsk are still unknown despite their significance in transporting dissolved and particulate iron. In this study, we conduct a coupled ice-ocean simulation for the northern Sea of Okhotsk from June 1998 to September 2000 to answer the question: Does the Amur River discharge deposit materials to the pathway of the dense shelf water? In a series of numerical experiments, we identified two routes (the western and eastern routes) that could transport the river water more than 100km offshore over the northwestern continental shelf. The two routes share the clockwise gyre in the Sakhalin Gulf and the northeastward flow on the northwestern continental shelf. These features are connected through the westward jet along the slope from the Sakhalin Gulf (the western route) and the northward transport over the shelf break canyon (the eastern route). The river water, the dense shelf water, and the easterly wind are in a fine geophysical balance for those features, and all are required for the formation of the two routes. The model results show that these unique joint effects in the Sea of Okhotsk allow the Amur River discharge to be effectively transported over the northwestern continental shelf, unlike a general river discharge that flows along the coast, and deposit materials into the pathway of the dense shelf water.

Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective

To address China’s large population and uneven distribution of water storage, the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) aims at transferring water from the Yangtze River (Changjiang) Basin to the North China Plain. This project is being implemented over three different routes, referred to as the Eastern, Central, and Western routes, each of which is giving rise to strategic conflicts. In this paper, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is used to systematically investigate these conflicts and obtain strategic insights into them. The Chinese Central Government is involved in each conflict, together with local decision makers, making the entire conflict hierarchical. The conflict is analyzed both as an overall graph model and as three local conflicts, and the resulting equilibria are compared. The Central Government’s preferences, which can be fully elaborated in the single or overall model, account for the differences in equilibria between the overall model and the three local models. The Central Government, which utilizes different strategies in planning, modifying, and building these routes, may be able to control the overall project as it wishes, thereby reaching separate agreements with the relevant decision makers along each route.

In situ stress measurements by hydraulic fracturing in the Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project in China

This technical note summarizes and discusses the results of the in situ stress measurements by hydraulic fracturing conducted in 7 holes at depths ranging from 21 to 111m in planned dam sites, and in 13 holes at depths varying from 28 to 532m in planned tunnel sites in the Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project in China. The measured maximum and minimum horizontal principal stresses increase linearly with depth in tunnel sites, and piecewise-linearly in dam areas. The horizontal stresses are greater than the vertical stress, indicating a thrust faulting regime at all tested locations. Such a stress regime is confirmed by local geological structures. The direction of the maximum horizontal principal stress is generally NEE–SWW, which is highly correlated with the tectonic plate movement and crustal deformation in the study area, and consistent with that revealed by focal mechanism solutions from earthquakes. The results in the present study may provide in situ stress information for the design of planned dams and tunnels, and make a good complement to the World Stress Map.

Summer nitrogenous nutrient transport and its fate in the Taiwan Strait: A coupled physical‐biological modeling approach

In order to understand the fate of nutrients in the Taiwan Strait during summer, we built a coupled physical‐biological numerical ocean model, which can capture the basic hydrographic and biological features within the strait. The nutrient that we chose to model is dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN). The model includes individual reservoirs for nitrate (NO3) and ammonium (NH4). Both the observational evidence and model results show that NO3 in the strait originates primarily from the upwelling subsurface water in the northern South China Sea (SCS) that enters the strait via the eastern and western routes separated by the Taiwan Bank. The coupled physical and biological effects on the NO3 transport at these two routes are highlighted in the study. For the western route, the shallow topography and the coastal upwelling intensify the biological uptake of NO3 in the whole water column. Consequently, the nitrogenous contribution by this route is mainly in form of the particulate organic nitrogen (PON). In contrast, NO3 is transported conservatively below the nitricline at the deep eastern route, contributing the whole NO3 supply in the TWS. The model estimates the fluxes of DIN and PON into the TWS, from the northern SCS, are 1.8 and 4 kmol s−1, respectively. Over half (∼1 kmol s−1) of the DIN is synthesized into PON by the phytoplankton in the strait. Overall, this study estimates the physical and biological effects on the nutrient transport in the TWS during summer.

Influence of Slope Gradient on Distribution Rule of Geostress Field in River Valleys

During the construction of hydropower station, the change of slope gradient in river valleys often takes place. In order to study influence of slope gradient change on distribution rule of geostress field, the three dimensional unloading models under different slope gradients were established by finite difference software (FLAC3D). After numerical simulation, the results were as follows: (1) The phenomenon of stress concentration at the bottom of river valleys was obvious, which appeared the typical stress fold. Both the depth of stress concentration zone and the principal stress values significantly increased with the increment of slope gradient. (2) Maximum principal stress values increased less in shallow part of upper bank slope (low stress zone) but increased more in the nearby slope foot with the increment of slope gradient, causing great difference in geostress field of bank slope. (3) There was some difference in released energy of bank slope due to slope gradient change in river valleys. In order to distinguish the difference, stress relief zone was further divided into stress stably released zone and stress instability released zone. Finally, take Ada dam area of the western route project of South-to-North Water Transfer as an example, the results by numerical simulation were reliable through comparing the distribution rule of geostress field for the dam, which could provide important reference for stability of the design and construction of steep and narrow river valleys.

A joint water diversion plan for China

To achieve domestic food security and help alleviate poverty, China is undertaking ambitious water transfer projects as a means of optimizing management of its water resources. This article proposes a three‐part approach to south‐to‐north water diversion in China. The plan consists of an extension to the current middle route, an alternative (and expanded) western route, and a trunk canal system to transfer water to the northwest. The proposed project would be undertaken in four stages; costs and benefits of each stage are included here. With the completion of the plan, the total annual capacity of south‐to‐north water diversion in China would be 238 × 109 m3. Total project investment is estimated at 3,147 billion yuan ($498 billion). Major benefits generated by the project include annual income of 287 billion yuan ($45 billion) through sales of water and hydropower, addition of 44.3 × 106 ha (109 × 106 acres) of irrigated arable land, relocation of 66.5 × 106 inhabitants to newly irrigated regions, and conversion of 470,000 km2 (181,468 sq mi) of desert to irrigated land and forest to provide wind shelter and preserve topsoil.

An early date for cattle from Namaqualand, South Africa: implications for the origins of herding in southern Africa

When did cattle come to South Africa? Radiocarbon dates on a newly found cow horn indicates a time in the early first millennium AD. In a study of the likely context for the advent of cattle herding, the authors favour immigrants moving along a western route through Namibia.

Tech-economic Analysis on West Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion

The western route project is in a relatively stable area and the construction technology of dam and long deep tunnel is feasible. This project is economically reasonable, with 11.8% economic internal rate of return,108.395 billion Yuan economic net present value, and 1.7 economic benefits cost ratio. In addition to the quantitative calculation of the benefits of the project, there are more important social and environmental benefits. The project promotes the economic and social development of Yellow River Basin and the Northwestern area. This project enlarges the water supply of Yellow River and alleviates substantially the contradiction between supply and demand of the Yellow River water resources, and further protects and improves the ecological environment. The effects of this project on the intake areas include: 1) the range of the water supply is extensive; 2) maintain the ecological development of Yellow River; 3) improve the ecological environment of the intake areas; 4) maintain the ecological safety of China. The project's positive effects on the society and economy of the water supply areas include: 1) bring economic opportunities for the water supply areas; 2) promote the upgrading of local economic structure; 3) promote the urbanization of water supply areas; 4) improve local citizens’ scientific and cultural quality. The project's negative effects on the society and economy of water supply areas include: 1) the adverse impact on farming industry of water supply areas; 2) the adverse impact on migrates and religious facilities; 3) the adverse impact on the development of hydroelectric resources of downstream areas.

Evidence from Y-chromosome analysis for a late exclusively eastern expansion of the Bantu-speaking people

The expansion of the Bantu-speaking people (EBSP) during the past 3000-5000 years is an event of great importance in the history of humanity. Anthropology, archaeology, linguistics and, in recent decades, genetics have been used to elucidate some of the events and processes involved. Although it is generally accepted that the EBSP has its origin in the so-called Bantu Homeland situated in the area of the border between Nigeria and the Grassfields of Cameroon, and that it followed both western and eastern routes, much less is known about the number and dates of those expansions, if more than one. Mitochondrial, Y-chromosome and autosomal DNA analyses have been carried out in attempts to understand the demographic events that have taken place. There is an increasing evidence that the expansion was a more complex process than originally thought and that neither a single demographic event nor an early split between western and eastern groups occurred. In this study, we analysed unique event polymorphism and short tandem repeat variation in non-recombining Y-chromosome haplogroups contained within the E1b1a haplogroup, which is exclusive to individuals of recent African ancestry, in a large, geographically widely distributed, set of sub-Saharan Africans (groups=43, n=2757), all of whom, except one Nilo-Saharan-speaking group, spoke a Niger-Congo language and most a Bantu tongue. Analysis of diversity and rough estimates of times to the most recent common ancestors of haplogroups provide evidence of multiple expansions along eastern and western routes and a late, exclusively eastern route, expansion.

Quantitative analysis on the environmental impact of large-scale water transfer project on water resource area in a changing environment

Abstract. The interbasin long-distance water transfer project is key support for the reasonable allocation of water resources in a large-scale area, which can optimize the spatio-temporal change of water resources to secure the amount of water available. Large-scale water transfer projects have a deep influence on ecosystems; besides, global climate change causes uncertainty and additive effect of the environmental impact of water transfer projects. Therefore, how to assess the ecological and environmental impact of megaprojects in both construction and operation phases has triggered a lot of attention. The water-output area of the western route of China's South-North Water Transfer Project was taken as the study area of the present article. According to relevant evaluation principles and on the basis of background analysis, we identified the influencing factors and established the diagnostic index system. The climate-hydrology-ecology coupled simulation model was used to simulate and predict ecological and environmental responses of the water resource area in a changing environment. The emphasis of impact evaluation was placed on the reservoir construction and operation scheduling, representative river corridors and wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment below the dam sites. In the end, an overall evaluation of the comprehensive influence of the project was conducted. The research results were as follows: the environmental impacts of the western route project in the water resource area were concentrated on two aspects: the permanent destruction of vegetation during the phase of dam construction and river impoundment, and the significant influence on the hydrological situation of natural river corridor after the implementation of water extraction. The impact on local climate, vegetation ecology, typical wetlands, natural reserves and the water environment of river basins below the dam sites was small.

Research on Water Resource Exploitation and Utilization Potential of the Yellow River Basin

Based on the meaning of water resource exploitation and utilization potential, the year of 2009 was chosen as current year, the exploitation potentials and the water-saving potentials of the Yellow River basin by the years of 2020 and 2030 were analyzed; the exploitation potentials were analyzed from surface water, groundwater and unconventional water resources; the water-saving potentials were analyzed from the water utilizations of agriculture, industry and city life (containing domestic, building industry and tertiary industry); besides doing better in water resources management, the Western Route Project is considered as the effective measure to release the imbalance between water supply and demand in the basin.