Western Pacific Research Articles

HYPERTENSION BURDEN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: AN ESCALATING EPIDEMIC

Hypertension, defined as having systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic ≥90 mmHg, is a leading global risk factor for cardiovascular and kidney disease responsible for over 10 million deaths annually (WHO, 2019). The Western Pacific Region, which includes Southeast Asia, had the highest blood pressure levels of any region worldwide as of 2015 (Forouzanfar et al., 2017). With CVD already claiming over 3 million lives each year in Southeast Asia, the escalating hypertension epidemic threatens to exacerbate this existing public health crisis (Allotey et al., 2019). Southeast Asia has witnessed upward trends in mean systolic blood pressure over the past 25 years, rising from 127 mmHg to 131 mmHg between 1990 and 2015 (Forouzanfar et al., 2017). This reflects one of the steepest increases globally during that period.

Associations of interannual variation in summer tropospheric ozone with the Western Pacific Subtropical High in China from 1999 to 2017

Abstract. Associations between tropospheric ozone (O3) and climate variations have been extensively investigated worldwide. However, given the lack of historical O3 monitoring data, the knowledge gaps regarding the influences of climate variations on long-term O3 trends in China remain. The present study used a tropospheric O3 dataset from the summers of 1999 to 2017 simulated by an atmospheric chemistry model to explore the linkage between summer O3 and a dominant atmospheric circulation system – the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) pressure – on an interannual basis in China. During this period, both WPSH strength and O3 concentrations in eastern and central China illustrated a growing trend. An EOF analysis was conducted to examine significant summer O3 characteristics and patterns and their potential connections with the WPSH. We find that the correlation between the first principal component of summer ozone concentration in the EOF analysis and the WPSH reached 0.56 (P≤0.01) in China from 1999 to 2017. We show that the WPSH determines interannual fluctuations of summer O3, whereas O3 precursor emissions contribute primarily to the O3 long-term trend. Our results reveal that the WPSH plays a vital role in O3 perturbation in the eastern seaboard regions and inland China. Precursor emissions made more significant contributions of up to 60 % to increasing O3 trends in the inland urban agglomerations than coastal regions in eastern and southern China. The strongest contribution of meteorological conditions associated with the WPSH to summer O3 occurred in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), accounting for over 9 % to ozone perturbations from 1999 to 2017. We find that the effect of the WPSH on regional O3 depends on the spatial proximity to the WPSH. We attributed the effects of the WPSH on O3 interannual variations to the changes in air temperature, precipitation, and winds associated with the WPSH's intensity and positions.

Prevalence of tuberculosis infection among patients with Takayasu arteritis: a meta-analysis of observational studies

To clarify the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection in patients with Takayasu arteritis (TAK). In this study, we conducted a comprehensive search across multiple databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane, and Medline, from the inception of the Literature Library to May 16, 2023. Using a specific set of keywords, including “Takayasu Arteritis”, “Tuberculosis”, and “Mycobacterium tuberculosis”, the main objective of this search was to identify all relevant observational studies, including case-control studies, cohort studies, and cross-sectional studies, that report the prevalence of TB in individuals diagnosed with TAK. Two independent evaluators rigorously screened the studies, extracted data, and assessed the study quality using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tools. Statistical analyses were conducted using R software version 4.3.0, which allowed for the synthesis of prevalence and subgroup analyses. Subgroup analyses were stratified based on quality scores, World Health Organization regional categorizations, and TB categories. Assessment of publication bias was performed using a funnel plot. The study included a total of 30 studies with 5548 participants. The findings showed that individuals with TAK exhibited an average prevalence of TB infection at 31.27% (95% CI 20.48–43.11%). Significantly, the prevalence of TB infection demonstrated notable regional disparities, ranging from 16.93% (95% CI 7.71–28.76%) in the Western Pacific Region to 63.58% (95% CI 35.70–87.66%) in the African Region. Moreover, the study revealed that patients with TAK displayed a high prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) at 50.01% (95% CI 31.25–68.77%) and active TB at 14.40% (95% CI 9.03–20.68%). The high heterogeneity observed in the data highlights significant variability in TB infection rates among the populations studied, with the African Region exhibiting the highest rates. The study concludes that there is a high prevalence of TB infection in the TAK population, with regional variations. Consideration should be given to implementing rigorous TB screening measures and preventive interventions specifically tailored for the TAK population.

Regional Missile Defense Architecture of the US and Their Partners In the Western Pacifi Security

China has the largest arsenal of missiles with a range of less than 5,500 km. In 2019, the US withdrew from the INF Treaty and decided to deploy the same kind of missiles in East Asia. At the same time Washington plans to strengthen the theater missile defense architecture in the region. The purpose of the article is to determine the potential impact of missile defense strengthening by the US and their partners in East Asia on regional security. It is necessary to understand the prospects of the situation, given the presence of several hotbeds of potential conflict in the Western Pacific. A critical analysis of the expected actions of China and the US in the region, the role of regional missile defense systems in those scenarios, and both sides’ doctrines of non-nuclear missile use is provided. In certain situations, an enhanced theater missile defense could help the US and their partners to strengthen regional deterrence, but not in all situations. The analysis of both sides’ doctrinal provisions help to understand how strengthening the regional missile defense by the US and their partners can destabilize the situation. It is concluded that theater missile defense, unlike arms control measures, is not a reliable tool for ensuring regional stability.

Influence of the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole on the following spring climate in China: A synthetic observational and numerical study

The influence of the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) on the following spring climate in China is examined, using a 42-year simulation of the Community Earth System Model, version 1.0.4 (CESM1.0.4) and 42-year observation-based ocean-atmosphere analyses (1979–2021). It is shown that the SIOD, an inverse phase pattern of SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the southwest and northeast of the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO), is the dominant mode of observed interannual variability. Composite analyses based on observational data suggest that when a positive SIOD signal occurs, the surface temperature in the ensuing spring is warmer in southwest China and colder in northeast China, and the precipitation in southeast China decreases significantly. The response phase of the surface temperature and precipitation in China under a negative SIOD signal is the opposite of that under a positive SIOD signal, and the response intensity is also greater under a negative SIOD signal. Numerical experiments with CESM can also well reproduce the distribution of the surface temperature and precipitation the following spring over China under positive and negative SIOD signals, respectively. Analysis of the mechanism by which the SIOD influences the subsequent precipitation in China shows that it may occur through interaction between the mid to high latitudes and low latitudes, as well as upper and lower tropospheric circulations. During negative SIOD years, due to the remote response generated by the boreal winter SSTA in the SIO, a strong positive anomaly at 500 hPa geopotential height extending from northeast China to the northwest Pacific Ocean at mid to high latitudes corresponds to a significant low pressure in south and northwest China, and this low pressure helps southerly winds bring more water vapor to southeast China. Meanwhile, the westward extension and northward elevation of the western Pacific subtropical high lead to the convergence of water vapor in south China. In addition, westerly anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean and easterly anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific change the local Walker circulation, which weakens the northwest Pacific anticyclonic circulation and subtropical westerly jet. The abnormally warm SST in the southern equatorial Indian Ocean promotes the formation of the Hadley circulation, enhances the upward movement, and changes the water vapor convergence in south China. These factors together lead to an increase in precipitation in southeast China in the following spring in both observations and CESM numerical experiments. At the same time, during positive SIOD years, both observations and simulations show that the causes affecting precipitation are almost the opposite of those in negative SIOD years. Therefore, the SIOD during boreal winter can be an important predictor of precipitation variability over south and southeast China during the following spring.

Tracking Mesoscale Convective Systems in IMERG and Regional Variability of Their Properties in the Tropics

AbstractMesoscale convective systems (MCSs) constitute only a fraction of convective systems in the tropics but significantly impact tropical weather and global climate. Early studies used satellite infrared (IR) data to track MCSs and study their properties but only for a short period due to computing limitations. Though valuable, the IR brightness temperature (Tb)‐derived precipitation properties have biases. The recent availability of Integrated Multi‐satEllite Retrieval for Global (IMERG) precipitation mission rainfall data of lesser bias than IR Tb‐based rainfall and access to high‐performance computers motivated us to track MCSs over global tropics for 10 years, using the Forward in Time (FiT) algorithm. Though IMERG is advantageous, it poses challenges to tracking MCSs due to convective systems connected by light rain areas and resolution differences between contributing passive microwave sensors. The precipitation field is smoothed and normalized to overcome these problems; then, the FiT algorithm identifies MCSs and tracks them. Our results show that MCSs contribute ∼70% of annual precipitation, though they are only ∼7% of all tracked systems. MCSs occur more often over the Amazon basin and Maritime Continent than in central Africa, known for high thunderstorm frequency, highlighting the contrasting convective regimes. The large, long‐lived, and intensely precipitating MCSs occur more often over the ocean than land, except for the Amazon basin. Fast‐moving MCSs often occur over West Africa, the Amazon basin, and the western Pacific, whereas slow‐moving MCSs are common over Colombia and the Maritime Continent.

Synergistic Effect of Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean and North Tropical Atlantic on the Central-Pacific Type of La Niña Based on Observations and CMIP5

Abstract Previous studies have indicated that boreal winter-to-spring sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the tropical Atlantic or Indian Ocean can trigger the central-Pacific (CP) type of ENSO in the following winter due to winds over the western Pacific. Here, with the aid of observational data and CMIP5 model simulations, we demonstrate that the ability of the winter-to-spring north tropical Atlantic (NTA) SSTA or Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode to initiate CP ENSO events in the following winter may strongly depend on each other. Most warming events of the IOB and NTA, which are followed by CP La Niña events, are concomitant. The synergistic effect of the IOB and NTA SSTA may produce greater CP ENSO events in the subsequent winter via Walker circulation adjustments. The impacts between warming and cooling events of the IOB and NTA SSTA are asymmetric. IOB and NTA warmings appear to contribute to the subsequent CP La Niña development, which is much greater than IOB and NTA cooling contributing to CP El Niño. Overall, a combination of the IOB and NTA SSTA precursors may improve predictions of La Niña events. Significance Statement Although boreal winter-to-spring sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic or Indian Ocean can trigger central-Pacific (CP) ENSO in the following winter, it is not yet clear whether the effects of these two basins are independent. The purpose of this study is to better understand the joint effect of these two basins on CP ENSO events. We demonstrate that the ability of the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) SSTA to initiate CP ENSO events in the following winter may strongly depend on the state of the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB). The synergistic impact of these two basins may produce stronger CP ENSO events. These results highlight the role of three-ocean interactions in ENSO diversity and prediction.

Two Marine Heatwave (MHW) Variants under a Basinwide MHW Conditioning Mode in the North Pacific and Their Atlantic Associations

Abstract During 2013–16 and 2018–22, marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the North Pacific, exhibiting similar extensive coverage, lengthy duration, and significant intensity but with different warming centers. The warming center of the 2013–16 event was in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), while the 2018–22 event had warming centers in both the GOA and the coast of Japan (COJ). Our observational analysis indicates that these two events can be considered as two MHW variants induced by a basinwide MHW conditioning mode in the North Pacific. Both variants were driven thermodynamically by atmospheric wave trains propagating from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, within the conditioning mode. The origin and propagating path of these wave trains play a crucial role in determining the specific type of MHW variant. When a stronger wave train originates from the tropical central (western) Pacific, it leads to the GOA (COJ) variant. The cross-basin nature of the wave trains enables the two MHW variants to be accompanied by a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic but with opposite phases. The association of these two MHW variants with the Atlantic Ocean also manifests in the decadal variations of their occurrence. Both variants tend to occur more frequently during the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation but less so during the negative phase. This study underscores the importance of cross-basin associations between the North Pacific and North Atlantic in shaping the dynamics of North Pacific MHWs.

Incidence and Trends of Type 1 Diabetes before and after 2000 in The Western Pacific Region: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

ObjectivesTo undertake a systematic review of publications describing Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) incidence, trends over time and associated factors in the Western Pacific Region (WPR).. MethodsAs per the PROSPERO-registered (CRD42019122646) protocol English (MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health) and Chinese data-bases (China National Knowledge Infrastructure, VIP, Wanfang) from onset to 31/12/2019 were searched for T1DM incidence in the WPR. Country level data extracted included annual crude incidence rates by sex, number of new cases per annum (p.a.) and cumulatively, and the population at-risk. A meta-analysis for T1DM incidence was performed (by region and narrow age-bands, where possible) with subgroup analyses by time and by region. FindingsForty-five population-based studies (21 from China), published 1973-2017, estimated T1DM incidence, mostly in youth, in 11 WPR countries. After 2000, mean annual T1DM incidence/100,000 person years aged 0-14 years ranged from 0.9 (95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.6-1.3) in Fiji to 23.2 (95% CI, 21.3-25.2) in Australia. The mean annual increase over time ranged from 2.8% in Australia (1990-2002) to 14.2% in Shanghai (1997-2011). T1DM incidence increased most in China (2.7-fold over 30-years) then Thailand (2-fold over 15-years). Most studies documented increasing incidence with age, though only two studies included people aged≥20 years. Many, but not all studies reported significantly higher T1DM incidence in females vs. males. ConclusionT1DM incidence in the WPR is generally increasing, varying by age, sex, time and country. Results increase understanding of regional T1DM incidence and inform research and healthcare strategies.

Climate and sea-level fluctuations on the western coast of Bohai Bay during the 4.2 ka event: Multi-proxy evidence from the Nandagang area of Cangzhou, China

The 4.2 ka event was an important climatic event during the mid–late Holocene, with significant effects on the ecological environment and climatic evolution of different regions. Coastal wetlands, as a transitional ecosystem between land and sea, are sensitive to changes in climate and sea level; hence, research on coastal wetlands is important for reconstructing past climate and sea-level changes and for predicting future changes. However, little research has been conducted on the characteristics of the 4.2 ka event on the western coast of Bohai Bay in China. We analyzed the pollen assemblages (214 samples), grain size, and geochemical element contents of a mid–late Holocene sedimentary sequence from the Nandagang (NDG) wetland on Bohai Bay, with the chronology based on 13 AMS 14C dates. The results revealed the history of climate and sea-level changes on the western coast of Bohai Bay during the interval of 5000–3600 cal yr BP. High sedimentary arboreal pollen concentrations indicated that the NDG area had a relatively dense cover and humid climate during 5000–4450 cal yr BP. During the 380-year interval of 4450–4070 cal yr BP, corresponding to the 4.2 ka event, the decreased representation of arboreal pollen indicated a decrease in the regional forest cover and an arid climate. The internal structure of the 4.2 ka event recorded in core NDG showed a dry-wet-dry temporal structure during the intervals of 4450–4290 cal yr BP, 4290–4170 cal yr BP, and 4170–4070 cal yr BP, respectively, together with a relatively low sea level. Comparison of the relative sea level (RSL) record of the NDG wetland with similar records from other coastal regions in East Asia during the 4.2 ka event revealed contrasting trends. During 4070–3600 cal yr BP, the tree pollen concentration increased again, indicating that the forest vegetation coverage increased and the climate became wetter. Overall, our results suggest that the 4.2 ka event, as recorded in Bohai Bay, was related to the reduced influence of the western Pacific Ocean Warm Pool and the more frequent occurrence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Algal cover as a driver of diversity in communities associated with mussel assemblages across eastern Pacific ecoregions

AbstractResearch on intertidal mussel assemblages and associated communities has revealed that complexity and structure are influenced by environmental heterogeneity and local‐scale factors affecting recruitment. Research in situ in eastern and western Pacific intertidal ecosystems has suggested drivers of species diversity and community structure encompassing large geographic scales, however, there are major gaps in geographic coverage. Our aim is to fill some of these gaps by analyzing macrofaunal functional group diversity and effects of environmental factors on intertidal mussel communities from three distinct marine ecoregions in the southern and northern hemispheres. We identified the effects of algal cover and environmental heterogeneity on species richness and evenness, and we modeled factors effecting mussel layer complexity from assemblages in three marine ecoregions. We analyzed macrofaunal species diversity within one of the austral ecoregions based on the width of the coastal shelf. Species richness was highest in samples from the northern hemisphere while evenness was highest in samples from the southern hemisphere. Similarity in functional group structure for all communities sampled was ≤55% (Bray–Curtis dissimilarity) and ≤35% (Chao–Jaccard dissimilarity). Wave exposure had a significant effect on shell length and complexity of mussel matrices on rocky bench platforms. The presence of algal cover had a strong effect on species richness in mussel matrices regardless of complexity, while algal canopies had no effect on species evenness. Overall, this study provides significant new insight on the community complexity of mussel beds in parts of the world which have been poorly studied in this regard.

The accumulation characteristics and exploration potential of oil and gas in the back-arc basin of Japan under the background of high heat flow

The Sea of Japan is located in the southeast margin of Eurasia, in the triangle area of the western Pacific Ocean. Due to the interaction of the Pacific plate, Eurasian plate and Philippine plate, its tectonic environment is complex, forming a typical trench-arc-basin system. At present, 148 oil and gas fields have been discovered in Japan, with an oil and gas resource of 255.78×106 t, showing a good prospect for oil and gas exploration. Based on the previous research and the recently collected geological and geophysical data, the characteristics of tectonic-sedimentary evolution and geothermal field in the basins around the Sea of Japan are analyzed. The results show that the tectonic evolution of the basin is mainly controlled by plate subduction and back-arc oceanic crust expansion, and it mainly undergone four tectonic-sedimentary evolution stages: Subduction period, basin development period, subsidence period and compression deformation period. The overall heat flow value of Japan Sea is high, and it is distributed annularly along Yamato Ridge. The geothermal heat flow value is about 50–130 MW/m2, and the average heat flow is 75.9±19.8 MW/m2, which has a typical “hot basin”. The high heat flow background provides unique thermal evolution conditions for hydrocarbon generation, which leads to the high temperature and rapid evolution. The authors summarized as “early hydrocarbon generation, rapid maturity and shallow and narrow hydrocarbon generation window”. The type of oil and gas is mainly natural gas, and it mainly distributed in Neogene oil and gas reservoirs. The trap types are mainly structural traps, lithologic traps and composite traps. In addition, the pre-Neogene bedrock oil and gas reservoirs also show a good exploration prospect. The resource prospecting indicates that Niigata Basin, Ulleung Basin and kitakami Basin are the main target areas for future exploration and development.©2023 China Geology Editorial Office.

Observed Anomaly of Temperature and Mixed Layer Depth Associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Active Phase in the Banda Sea, Indonesia

The eastward propagation of atmospheric waves along the equatorial band from the central equatorial Indian Ocean to the western Pacific Ocean passing through the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC), known as the intraseasonal Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event, plays an important role on modulating both atmospheric and upper ocean dynamics along its path. This study aims to investigate the MJO active phase dynamics and its impact on changes in near-surface seawater temperature and mixed layer depth (MLD) anomaly in the Banda Sea Indonesia, using multi-datasets of atmospheric reanalysis, satellites derived sea surface temperature (SST), and Argo float between 2017 - 2018. This study revealed that the MJO waves propagate eastward along the southern equator-line over the IMC and pass through the Banda Sea, associated with significant decreased on Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and increased in zonal wind speed at 850hPa. The study result shows anomalous increased on surface wind speed and SST cooling during of MJO active phase. The amplitude peaks of filtered ocean-atmosphere variables range between 30 – 60 days. Argo float datasets in the Banda Sea for the first time captured upper ocean responses to the arrival of the MJO active phase, as characterized by a negative temperature anomaly of ~0.3°C in the surface mixed layer, large temperature anomaly of ~0.8°C in the thermocline layer and the deepening of the MLD of ~25 m. Hence, the MJO active phase impacts significantly on surface and vertical temperature cooling and regulate upper ocean mixing intensity in the Banda Sea.

Regional and remote influences of ocean‐atmospheric processes on northeast monsoon rainfall during 2021 over India

AbstractSevere rainfall during the recent northeast monsoon season (October, November and December) in 2021 caused unexpected disasters (triggered flooding and landslides) in the pilgrim city of Tirupati and the metropolitan city of Chennai over the peninsular of India (PI). The remote and regional influence of several ocean‐atmospheric climate indices on northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) during the OND season is investigated to understand the contributory mechanisms of extreme rainfall events over the PI during 2021. The interannual variability of NEMR and its relationship with the OND sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the Niño3.4 and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) regions are considered. In addition, SST anomalies over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), such as east BoB (EBoB), east equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and their gradients (GSST) connections with NEMR, are also examined. The impact of Siberian High (SH), Western Pacific High (WPH), Arabian Sea Surface Pressure (ASSP), easterly waves (EW) and land surface temperature contrast (LSTC) is also analysed and incorporated to find a specific linkage with NEM 2021. The results show that excess NEMR during OND 2021 is suggestively associated with favourable large‐scale conditions like negative IOD and the La Niña phase over the Indo‐Pacific region. In November 2021, two deep depressions made landfall over Tamil Nadu (within the latitude of 11°–13°N) and over adjoining areas, which caused copious amounts of rainfall (maximum ~90 mm·day−1), leading to flooding conditions over Tirupati and Chennai. During the NEM season, abundant warming of BoB and weak vertical wind shear, along with negative anomalies of ASSP, modulated the cyclonic activities that enhanced the sufficient moisture transports from BoB to the PI. The MSLP anomalies over the ASSP region depict a significant correlation (−0.47) with the interannual variability of NEM as compared to SH and WPH during the OND season of 2021.

Convective tropopause over the tropics: Climatology, seasonality, and inter-annual variability inferred from long-term FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC-1 RO data

The present study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the convective tropopause height (COTH) and temperature (COT-T) over the tropics using long-term radio occultation (RO) measurements from the Formosa Satellite Mission 3–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) from July 2006 to December 2018. The study reveals that the COT-H (COT-T) exhibits a significant longitudinal structure with a maximum (minimum) over the Western Pacific and two secondary maxima (minima) over the American and African regions. The seasonal cycles of COT-H and COT-T are also prominent, with higher and colder values over the Western Pacific in boreal winter and over the Indian region in boreal summer. This seasonality in COT-H and COT-T is consistent with the seasonal process of tropical convective activity and is explained by outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The correlation analysis shows that COT-H (COT-T) is negatively (positively) correlated with OLR, with the highest correlation found in the Indian region. Additionally, the study investigates the relationship between COT-H (COT-T) and upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) over the various regions in the tropics. Over the Indian region, the COT-H (COT-T) exhibits a positive (negative) correlation with UTWV, while over the Western Pacific, American, and African regions, it displays a negative (positive) correlation. Finally, the spatial distribution of the convective tropopause in El Niño and La Niña winters was examined. Results show that the COT-H (COT-T) is higher (lower) over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and lower (higher) over the maritime continent during El Niño compared with La Niña.

A Potential Reason for a More CP El Nino‐Like SSTA Performance in CMIP6 Simulations

AbstractA systematic bias of the extremely westward zonal current (EWZC) was revealed over the equatorial Pacific in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. It tends to weaken the modeled interannual variability of equatorial zonal current anomaly (ZCA) with its maximum variability concentrated in the western Pacific. A mixed‐layer heat budget analysis demonstrates that the simulation of mean circulation effect is slightly affected by the zonal current bias. However, the zonal advective feedback is closely linked to the biased equatorial ZCA variability and is overestimated (underestimated) in the Niño‐4 (Niño‐3) region. The magnitude of zonal advective feedback is even greater than that of thermocline feedback and becomes the most dominant process contributing to the growth of mixed‐layer temperature anomaly tendency in the Niño‐4 region. Such a bias is essential for a more central‐Pacific El Niño‐like performance in CMIP6 models.

Reconstruction of ENSO variability using the standardized growth index of a Tridacna shell from Yongshu Reef, South China Sea

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal of global interannual climate anomaly and reconstructing past ENSO variations using high-resolution paleoclimate archives can improve our understanding of ENSO variability, as well as improve our ability to predict future climate changes. Here, a daily resolution standardized growth index (SGI) was established using a giant clam (Tridacna spp.) shell specimen MD2 (life span: 1994–2013 CE), collected from the Yongshu Reef, southern South China Sea (SCS). The cross-spectral and correlation analysis indicated that the SGI variation of MD2 was strongly influenced by ENSO variability on an interannual timescale. Tridacna spp. is in symbiosis with zooxanthellae, and its growth index is usually modulated by the photosynthetic efficiency of zooxanthellae. During the El Niño (La Niña) period, the convective anomalies stimulated in western Pacific would increase (decrease) the effective solar radiation on Yongshu Reef, and in turn influence the photosynthesis rate of zooxanthellae and enzyme activity for the calcification site and thus the SGI of giant clam MD2. The SGI can explain 54.7 % of ENSO variance, demonstrating the potential for Tridacna SGI in ENSO reconstruction. Compared with conventional ENSO reconstruction using high-resolution geochemical proxies, the method of giant clam SGI is rapid and economical.

Solar Irradiance Modulates the Asian Summer Monsoon—ENSO Relationship Over the Last Millennium

AbstractThe Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is teleconnected to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this relationship is nonstationary and has shifted significantly in recent decades. Characterizing the drivers of such shifts is crucial for improving ASM prediction and extreme event preparedness. Paleoclimate records indicate a link between ASM strength and solar activity on multidecadal‐to‐centennial timescales, but 20th‐century data are too short to test mechanisms. Here we evaluate how solar irradiance influences the ASM‐ENSO relationship using last‐millennium paleoclimate data assimilation reconstructions and model simulations. We find that high solar irradiance weakens the ENSO‐East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) correlation, but strengthens the ENSO‐South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) correlation. Solar irradiance likely influences the strength of the ENSO‐EASM and ENSO‐SASM teleconnections via changes in the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the amplitude of ENSO events, respectively. We suggest a need for considering solar activity in decadal ASM rainfall predictions under global warming scenarios.

Prospective Evolution of Meteorological Drought in the Haihe River Basin and Its Connection With Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulations Using CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble

AbstractClimate change modifies monsoon rainfall patterns, leading to significant impacts on future meteorological droughts. This study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of future precipitation, drought features, and the dynamic mechanisms governing their evolution induced by teleconnected atmospheric circulation in the Haihe River Basin, situated in the north China monsoon region. The investigation was conducted under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios of CMIP6, utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Index and an improved run theory at seasonal and annual scales. The findings revealed that high‐emission scenarios cause a wetter climate trend, particularly in autumn and winter, related to the attenuation of the East Asian Trough from climate warming. The uneven intra‐annual precipitation patterns within the basin, induced by the Asian monsoon climate, are expected to improve in the far future, particularly under the SSP2‐4.5 scenarios. The drought frequency, intensity, and duration of future meteorological drought are expected to improve compared to historical conditions under all three scenarios. SSP2‐4.5 shows the shortest duration and lightest intensity of annual droughts. Extreme droughts are primarily driven by strong subsidence with low‐level moisture divergence. However, in the far future, the eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high results in reducing moisture transport from the western Pacific, leading to increasing contribution of advection term to atmospheric drying, particularly under the SSP1‐2.6. In winter, the increase in radiative forcing leads to enhanced evapotranspiration from the Eurasian continent, providing additional moisture and alleviating drought, especially in the far future under the SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5 scenarios.

Coherent amplification of the Okhotsk high, Korean trough, and northwestern Pacific subtropical high during heavy rainfall over Japan in August 2021

In August 2021, rain front stagnation in Japan resulted in prolonged and disastrous rainfall across the entire country. During the heavy rainfall period, the large-scale atmospheric field over the East Asian–western North Pacific region was characterized by meridional tripolar circulation anomalies: the Okhotsk high (OH), the trough over the Korean Peninsula (Korean trough), and the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH). Simultaneously, tropical convective activity was enhanced over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed over the tropical western–central Pacific. This study investigates the dynamic mechanism of linkage of the extratropical tripolar anomalies and the effects of tropical convective modulation using a reanalysis dataset, a cutoff low detection scheme, the potential vorticity inversion method, and numerical experiments. Upper-tropospheric blocking over eastern Siberia connected to the surface OH is conducive to the stagnation of synoptic depressions, including cutoff lows and troughs, over the Korean Peninsula, contributing to the development and maintenance of the quasi-stationary Korean trough. Rossby waves emanating from the Korean trough excite an anticyclonic anomaly over the northwestern Pacific. This upper-level anomalous anticyclone acts to enhance the surface NWPSH through zonal heat transport, accompanied by a northward tilting structure with height. Simultaneously, the tropical intraseasonal oscillation is amplified over the Indo–western Pacific Ocean sector under the negative-phase Indian Ocean dipole and multi-year La Niña conditions. The combination of enhanced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed convection across the tropical western–central Pacific reinforces the NWPSH. The anomalous circulation associated with the extratropical tripolar pattern and concurrent tropical heat forcing causes more moisture transport, convergence, and anomalous ascent, which contribute to heavy rainfall in Japan. These results suggest that the dynamically correlated amplification of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies plays a crucial role in precipitation variability in East Asia.