Western Equatorial Indian Ocean Research Articles

On the Generation and Salinity Impacts of Intraseasonal Westward Jets in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractWhile westerly winds dominate the equatorial Indian Ocean and generate the well‐known eastward flowing Wyrtki Jets during boreal spring and fall, there is evidence of a strong westward surface jet during winter that is swifter than eastward currents during that season. A weaker westward jet is found in summer. In this study, we report the occurrence, characteristics, and intraseasonal variability of this westward jet and its impact on mixed layer salinity in the equatorial Indian Ocean using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA). The westward jet typically occurs in the upper 50 m, above an eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent, with peak westward volume transport of approximately −8 Sv. The westward jet builds up gradually, decays rapidly, and is primarily forced by local intraseasonal wind stress anomalies generated by atmospheric intraseasonal convection. Westward acceleration of the jet occurs when the dominant intraseasonal westward wind anomaly is not balanced by the zonal pressure gradient (ZPG) force. The intraseasonal westward jet generates strong horizontal advection and is the leading cause of mixed layer freshening in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Without it, a saltier mixed layer would persist and weaken any barrier layers. Existing barrier layers are strengthened following the passage of freshwater‐laden westward jets. Deceleration of the westward jet occurs when the eastward ZPG becomes increasingly important and the westward intraseasonal wind anomalies weaken. A rapid reversal of atmospheric intraseasonal convection‐driven surface winds eventually terminates the westward jet.

Equatorial Circulation in the Western Indian Ocean During Onset of the 2018 Summer Monsoon and Links to the Bay of Bengal

AbstractCross‐equator transects occupied by an underwater glider and a research vessel in the western Indian Ocean captured the evolution of equatorial circulation during onset of the boreal summer monsoon in 2018. At the end of the winter monsoon in March, surface currents were westward, while the equatorial undercurrent carried salty Arabian Sea High‐Salinity Water eastward. As winds transitioned from westward to eastward during April, an eastward near‐surface Wyrtki Jet developed, while the equatorial undercurrent weakened, vanishing by May. A first‐mode baroclinic Kelvin wave propagated through the survey region after westward winds relaxed. However, the vertical structure of the evolving circulation was inconsistent with the first baroclinic mode, suggesting the influence of higher modes in setting observed vertical structure. The strong equatorial undercurrent at the end of the winter monsoon allowed high‐salinity waters from the western equatorial Indian Ocean to reach the southern Bay of Bengal in summer 2018.

Dynamics of rainfall extremes over India: A new perspective

AbstractA comprehensive analysis of the role of Indo‐Pakistan arid region (IPAR) in modulating the boreal summer heavy extreme rainfall events over monsoon core zone (MCZ over Indian subcontinent) at subseasonal to daily time scales is presented. The objective is to bring new perspectives on the dynamics of such rainfall extremes. Time‐lagged composite analysis shows the clustering of Monsoon Intra‐Seasonal Oscillation with monsoon rainfall daily extremes. However, our results additionally bring out the distinct role of surface thermal forcing and moist processes over IPAR as another potential and significant precursor, 16–10 days in advance, causing monsoon rainfall daily extremes over MCZ. Further analysis reveals that the warming over IPAR is initially found in the northern part of the domain, 20–15 days before the rainfall events over MCZ and is triggered by subtropical‐midlatitude interactions characterized by the intrusion of a midlatitude (i.e., Eurasian) atmospheric wave train into the Asian domain. Our analysis further reveals strong moist static energy (MSE) build‐up over the IPAR 12 days in advance, which is initially dominated by anomalous warming in the lower atmosphere, but with an incremental contribution of low‐level specific humidity as we moved forward in time towards the rainfall event. Hydrodynamic‐longwave radiative teleconnections are the primary mechanism for the persistence of the surface warming and MSE buildup over IPAR after the initial intrusion of the Eurasian wave train. The persistent warming over IPAR reinforces the land‐sea contrast between the Middle East and western equatorial Indian Ocean to its south, and this subsequently leads to pressure anomalies and monsoon circulation changes through geostrophic wind adjustment, thus enhancing westerlies over Arabian Sea. All these factors lead to the development of a gigantic monsoon trough over central India thus causing the rainfall extremes over MCZ through the genesis of synoptic vortices.

Rain and Cloud Perspectives on the Seasonal Cycle over the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractConvection over the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) is strongly linked to precipitation over Africa and Australia but is poorly represented in current climate models, and its observed seasonal cycle is poorly understood. This study investigates the seasonal cycle of convection in the WEIO through rainfall and cloud measurements. Rainfall shows a single annual peak in early austral summer, but cloud proxies identify convective activity maxima in both boreal and austral summer. These diverging measures of convection during boreal summer are indicative of a reduction in the intensity of precipitation associated with a given cloud regime or cloud-top height during this time of year but an increase in the overall occurrence of high-top clouds and convectively active cloud regimes. The change in precipitation intensity associated with regimes is found to explain most of the changes in total precipitation during the period from May to November, whereas changes in the occurrence of convective regimes explains most of the changes throughout the rest of the year. The reduction in precipitation intensities associated with cloud regimes over the WEIO during boreal summer appears to be related to large-scale monsoon circulations, which suppress convection through forcing air descent in the midtroposphere and increase the apparent occurrence of convectively active cloud regimes through the advection of high-level cloud from monsoon-active areas toward the WEIO region.

Anomalous warming of the western equatorial Indian Ocean in 2007: Role of ocean dynamics

In this study, observational data, together with the simulations from a high-resolution numerical ocean model, are used to identify the processes responsible for the anomalous warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Indian Ocean during late spring/early summer in 2007. Our analysis suggests that the SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) remained unusually warm owing to the combined influence of the wind induced and reflected Rossby waves in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Anomalous westerly wind burst in the equatorial Indian Ocean in early April generated an eastward propagating downwelling Kelvin wave, which got reflected from the eastern boundary as a downwelling Rossby wave and propagated to the WEIO. The easterlies appeared during the second fortnight of April generated another downwelling Rossby wave, which also propagated to the WEIO. Thus a couple of downwelling Rossby waves, reflected and direct wind induced, propagated to the WEIO, deepened the thermocline and prohibited cooling in the WEIO during the early months of summer monsoon season. This study demonstrates the importance of the equatorial winds and associated oceanic dynamics in modulating the SST variability in the WEIO.

Forecasts of MJO Events during DYNAMO with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Sensitivity to Cumulus Parameterization Scheme

An operational weather forecast model, coupled to an oceanic model, was used to predict the initiation and propagation of two major Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events during the dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) campaign period. Two convective parameterization schemes were used to understand the sensitivity of the forecast to the model cumulus scheme. The first is the Tiedtke (TDK) scheme, and the second is the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) scheme. The TDK scheme was able to forecast the MJO-1 and MJO-2 initiation at 15- and 45-day lead, respectively, while the SAS scheme failed to predict the convection onset in the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO). The diagnosis of the forecast results indicates that the successful prediction with the TDK scheme is attributed to the model capability to reproduce the observed intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation-sea surface temperature (OLR-SST) relationship. On one hand, the SST anomaly (SSTA) over the WEIO was induced by surface heat flux anomalies associated with the preceding suppressed-phase MJO. The change of SSTA, in turn, caused boundary layer convergence and ascending motion, which further induced a positive column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) tendency, setting up a convectively unstable stratification for MJO initiation. The forecast with the SAS scheme failed to reproduce the observed OLR-SST-MSE relation. The propagation characteristics differed markedly between the two forecasts. Pronounced eastward phase propagation in the TDK scheme is attributed to a positive zonal gradient of the MSE tendency relative to the MJO center, similar to the observed, whereas a reversed gradient appeared in the forecast with the SAS scheme with dominant westward propagation. The difference is primarily attributed to anomalous vertical and horizontal MSE advection.

Aliasing of the Indian Ocean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models project an inhomogeneous anthropogenic surface warming of the Indian Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with strongest warming in the Arabian Sea and Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Previous studies have warned that this “Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like” warming pattern could yield more Arabian Sea cyclones, more extreme IOD events and decrease monsoonal rains. Here we show that CMIP5 models also produce an “IOD-like” pattern over the 1871–2016 period, in broad agreement with observations. Single-models ensemble simulations however indicate a strong aliasing of the warming pattern “signal” by the internal climate variability “noise” over that period. While the average Indian Ocean warming emerges around 1950 in CMIP5 and observations, regional contrasts are more difficult to detect. The only detectable signal by 2016 in CMIP5 is a stronger Arabian Sea than Bay of Bengal warming in > 80% of the models, which is not detected in HadSST3 observations. Conversely, observations already detect a stronger Northern than Southern Indian ocean warming, while this signal only emerges by ~ 2060 in > 80% of the models. Subsampling observations to only retain the most accurate values however indicate that this observed signal most likely results from sampling issues in the Southern hemisphere. In light of this large aliasing by internal climate variability and observational uncertainties, the broad agreement between CMIP5 and observations over 1871–2016 may be largely coincidental. Overall, these results call for extreme caution when interpreting spatial patterns of anthropogenic surface warming.

On the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the equatorial Indian Ocean surface winds

Variability of the Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) winds play crucial roles in driving the upper EIO dynamics and modifying the ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean (IO). This study, using a satellite-sensed high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) monthly winds, has revealed many salient features of the seasonal and inter-annual variability of winds at various dynamically significant regions of the EIO. Though annual mean wind pattern of the EIO shows westerlies east of 60°E, the different local areas in this ocean exhibit significant seasonal wind variations. Migrations and fluctuations of southerlies and westerlies primarily determine the EIO wind variability. In the western (eastern) EIO, SW and NE monsoon winds are stronger (weaker) and of longer (shorter) duration. Near to the equator (1°S–1°N), in the central EIO, weaker winds occur during SW and NE monsoons, whereas stronger winds during transition periods. Near the equator, meridional winds show a significant annual period, especially in the western EIO. But zonal winds exhibit semi-annual period east of 55°E with a peak in the central ocean associated with the active westerlies during spring and fall, and annual period west of 55°E in the western EIO due to monsoon reversals. Westerlies are stronger during the fall compared to spring. Zonal wind variability in the central EIO is the essential deciding factor for the zonal wind variability occurring in the whole EIO. Both Zonal Sea Level Pressure Gradient (ZSLPG) and Momentum Advection (MA) fields determine the dynamics of zonal winds in the EIO. Zonal winds are weak in the western EIO because of the semi-annual harmonics of both ZSLPG and MA, though with substantial amplitude, exhibiting opposite accelerations there. But stronger zonal winds occur in the central EIO (60°E–80°E) because of the same accelerations set by the relatively weaker ZSLPG and MA fields. The zonal winds show substantial inter-annual variability compared to the meridional winds. The inter-annual variability of zonal winds shows the predominance of two modes, with EOF1 50% and EOF2 20% of the total variance. Zonal wind pattern of EOF1 resembles the monsoon transition seasons, while that of EOF2 describes the SW monsoon. In the EIO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences the patterns of winds and SST anomalies better than that of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spatiotemporal variability of the EIO winds during ENSO and IOD indicates the prevalence of stronger zonal wind anomalies in the eastern and central EIO and weaker anomalies in the western EIO. Although spatial patterns of wind anomalies are similar during El Nino and Positive IOD (PIOD) periods, the monthly variations, spatial extensions, and intensities of anomalies are much different while comparing. Prospectus for understanding the EIO winds variations can help to understand the changes occurring in the wind-driven surface and subsurface zonal currents.

Summer Monsoon of 2019:Understanding the Performance So Far and Speculating about the Rest of the Season

The summer monsoon of 2019 began with a massive deficit in the all-India June rainfall of about 33% of the mean. This led to considerable anxiety since a large deficit in June had occurred last in the summer monsoon of 2014, which had turned out to be a drought. Here, we have attempted to unravel the factors that led to the deficit in June 2019 and also the above-normal rainfall in July. We show that the deficit in June 2019, as that of June 2014, can be attributed to the El Nino. The phase of the other important mode, Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), has been favourable throughout and led to the recovery of the monsoon in July when the El Nino weakened. It is expected that EQUINOO will play an important role in determining the rainfall in August and September, and hence the seasonal rainfall in 2019. Analysis of cases like 2003 and 2008, when the positive phase of EQUINOO lasted only during June and July and of 2007, when it lasted throughout the season has given an insight into the role of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) in sustenance of the positive phase of EQUINOO. We find that, unlike in 2003 and 2008, the SST of the WEIO has started increasing in late July, partly due to the mechanism which operated in 2007 and has led to a positive SST anomaly by 10 August, whereas sustained cooling has led to a negative SST anomaly over eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Since conditions now appear to be favourable for sustenance of a positive phase of EQUINOO, it is expected that the seasonal rainfall will be above normal.

The Railroad Switch Effect of Seasonally Reversing Currents on the Bay of Bengal High‐Salinity Core

AbstractThe Southwest Monsoon Current (SMC) flows eastward from the Arabian Sea into the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during summer, advecting a core of high‐salinity water. This high‐salinity core has been linked with Arabian Sea High‐Salinity Water that is presumed to enter the BoB directly from the Arabian Sea via the SMC. Here we show that the high‐salinity core originates primarily from the western equatorial Indian Ocean, reaching the BoB via the Somali Current, the Equatorial Undercurrent, and the SMC. Years with anomalously saline high‐salinity cores are linked with the East Africa Coastal Current and the Somali Current winter convergence and an anomalously strong Equatorial Undercurrent. Seasonal reversals that occur at the Somali Current and SMC junctions act as railroad switches diverting water masses to different basins in the northern Indian Ocean. Interannual fluctuations of the Equatorial Undercurrent are linked to wind stress and El Niño.

An objective definition of summer monsoon onset in the northwestern maritime continent

Unlike in other parts of the Asian Monsoon region, the summer monsoon in the Northwestern Maritime Continent (NwMC) is relatively dry. Hence, an objective definition is needed in order to determine the arrival of the dry season in this particular sub‐region. Criteria for the objective definition of summer monsoon onset in the NwMC were defined based on reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) databases. Considering the Matsuno‐Gill theoretical relationship between tropical precipitation and low‐level winds, the summer monsoon onset date can be determined objectively based on the commencement of the sustained 850‐hPa zonal winds averaged over the area from 5° to 10°N and from 100° to 115°E. The establishment of steady westerly/southwesterly winds over the NwMC region is consistent with the abrupt shift of rainfall from the equatorial region (5°S–5°N) to areas north of the equator. The onset is also associated with the northeastward propagation of anomalous convection from the western equatorial Indian Ocean on an intraseasonal time scale. In view of its representation of large‐scale circulation and objectiveness, this new monsoon onset index will provide a useful metric with which to predict NwMC summer monsoon onset and for studying the interannual variation in monsoon onset. A simple lead–lag correlation shows the monsoon onset in NwMC has a close relationship with ENSO. Generally an early (late) monsoon onset can be expected when cold (warm) ENSO event occurred in the preceding summer.

Interannual Variability of Summer Surface Air Temperature over Central India: Implications for Monsoon Onset

AbstractYear-to-year variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over central India is most pronounced in June. Climatologically over central India, SAT peaks in May, and the transition from the hot premonsoon to the cooler monsoon period takes place around 9 June, associated with the northeastward propagation of intraseasonal convective anomalies from the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Positive (negative) SAT anomalies during June correspond to a delayed (early) Indian summer monsoon onset and tend to occur during post–El Niño summers. On the interannual time scale, positive SAT anomalies of June over central India are associated with positive SST anomalies over both the equatorial eastern–central Pacific and Indian Oceans, representing El Niño effects in developing and decay years, respectively. Although El Niño peaks in winter, the correlations between winter El Niño and Indian SAT peak in the subsequent June, representing a post–El Niño summer capacitor effect associated with positive SST anomalies over the north Indian Ocean. These results have important implications for the prediction of Indian summer climate including both SAT and summer monsoon onset over central India.

Diagnosing Ocean Feedbacks to the BSISO: SST‐Modulated Surface Fluxes and the Moist Static Energy Budget

AbstractThe oceanic feedback to the atmospheric boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is examined by diagnosing the sea surface temperature (SST) modification of surface fluxes and moist static energy on intraseasonal scales. SST variability affects intraseasonal surface latent heat (LH) and sensible heat (SH) fluxes, through its influence on air‐sea moisture and temperature gradients (∆q and ∆T, respectively). According to bulk formula decomposition, LH is mainly determined by wind‐driven flux perturbations, while SH is more sensitive to thermodynamic flux perturbations. SST fluctuations tend to increase the thermodynamic flux perturbations over active BSISO regions, but this is largely offset by the wind‐driven flux perturbations. Enhanced surface fluxes induced by intraseasonal SST anomalies are located ahead (north) of the convective center over both the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, favoring BSISO northward propagation. Analysis of budgets of column‐integrated moist static energy (⟨m⟩) and its time rate of change (∂⟨m⟩/∂t) shows that SST‐modulated surface fluxes can influence the development and propagation of the BSISO, respectively. LH and SH variability induced by intraseasonal SSTs maintain 1–2% of ⟨m⟩ day−1 over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal but damp about 1% of ⟨m⟩ day−1 over the western North Pacific. The contribution of intraseasonal SST variability to ∂⟨m⟩/∂t can reach 12–20% over active BSISO regions. These results suggest that SST variability is conducive, but perhaps not essential, for the propagation of convection during the BSISO life cycle.

Dynamics of 2015 positive Indian Ocean Dipole

Evolution of typical positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event was dominated by a significant sea-surface temperature (SST) cooling in the south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Interestingly, during the evolution of 2015 pIOD event, the SST in the south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean did not reveal significant cooling, instead anomalous strong SST warming took place in the western tropical Indian Ocean off the East African coast. This anomalous SST warming was associated with a weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, analysis on the mixed layer heat budget demonstrated that the evolution of the 2015 pIOD event could be attributed mainly to the air-sea heat flux. By decomposing the air-sea heat flux, it is found that reduced latent heat loss plays an important role on the SST warming in the western pole and keeping SST warm in the eastern pole. We note that a residual term also may play a role during the initial development of the event. In contrast to the SST pattern, the subsurface temperature revealed a clear positive dipole pattern. Shallow (deep) 20°C isothermal layer in the eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean was observed during boreal summer. This robust subsurface dipole pattern indicated that the subsurface ocean response was largely wind driven through the equatorial wave dynamics as previously suggested.

Intraseasonal Variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent in the Indian Ocean

AbstractBy analyzing in situ observations and conducting a series of ocean general circulation model experiments, this study investigates the physical processes controlling intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) of the Indian Ocean. ISV of the EUC leads to time-varying water exchanges between the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. For the 2001–14 period, standard deviations of the EUC transport variability are 1.92 and 1.77 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the eastern and western basins, respectively. The ISV of the EUC is predominantly caused by the wind forcing effect of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) but through dramatically different ocean dynamical processes in the eastern and western basins. The stronger ISV in the eastern basin is dominated by the reflected Rossby waves associated with intraseasonal equatorial zonal wind forcing. It takes 20–30 days to set up an intraseasonal EUC anomaly through the Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with the first and second baroclinic modes. In the western basin, the peak intraseasonal EUC anomaly is generated by the zonal pressure gradient force, which is set up by radiating equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves induced by the equatorial wind stress. Directly forced and reflected Rossby waves from the eastern basin propagate westward, contributing to intraseasonal zonal current near the surface but having weak impact on the peak ISV of the EUC.

On the relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the relationship between inter‐decadal variation in the number of monsoon depressions (MDs) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is shown that there is an out‐of‐phase variation in the number of MDs over the BoB and the PDO, except during 1927–1945. Quantitative estimates of the relative contributions of individual environmental parameters show that the variation in the mid‐tropospheric relative humidity over the BoB is the primary reason for the observed variation in the number of MDs. It is further postulated that the variation in the sea surface temperature in the western equatorial Indian Ocean associated with the PDO could be one of the reasons for the changes in the moisture advection over to the BoB and hence the variation in the number of MDs in inter‐decadal timescale.

Ocean heat budget analysis on sea surface temperature anomaly in western Indian Ocean during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon

This study presents ocean heat budget analysis on seas surface temperature (SST) anomalies during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon (southwest monsoon). As discussed by previous studies, there was close relationship between variations of Asian summer monsoon and SST anomaly in western Indian Ocean. In this study we utilized ocean heat budget analysis to elucidate the dominant mechanism that is responsible for generating SST anomaly during weak-strong boreal summer monsoon. Our results showed ocean advection plays more important role to initate SST anomaly than the atmospheric prcess (surface heat flux). Scatterplot analysis showed that vertical advection initiated SST anomaly in western Arabian Sea and southwestern Indian Ocean, while zonal advection initiated SST anomaly in western equatorial Indian Ocean.

Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF–LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena in a regional model.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Signal over Kototabang, West Sumatera Based on the Mini Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) Data Analysis Using the Wavelet Technique

This study is mainly concerned an application of Mini Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) at Kototabang, West Sumatera nearby the location of an Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) side. We are interest to use this data to investigate the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). We examined of daily MAWS data for 3 years observations started from January 2001 to Mei 2004. By applying wavelet analysis, we found the MJO at Kototabang have 32 days oscillations as shown in Fig.1 below. In this study, we concentrate just for local mechanis only. We will show in this paper that at the phase of the MJO with a dipole structure to the convection anomalies, there is enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and reduced convection over the western Pacific. Over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, the equatorial Rossby wave response to the west of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface divergence associated with the anomalous surface westerlies and pressure ridge. This tends to suppress ascent in the boundary layer and shuts off the deep convection, eventually leading to a convective anomaly of the opposite sign. Over the Indonesian sector, the equatorial Kelvin wave response to the east of the enhanced convection includes a region of anomalous surface convergence into the anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough, which will tend to favour convection in this region. The Indonesian sector is also influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave response (of opposite sign) to the west of the reduced convection over the western Pacific, which also has a region of anomalous surface convergence associated with its anomalous equatorial surface easterlies and pressure trough. Hence, convective anomalies of either sign tend to erode themselves from the west and initiate a convective anomaly of opposite sign via their equatorial Rossby wave response, and expand to the east via their equatorial Kelvin wave response.

Is the negative IOD during 2016 the reason for monsoon failure over southwest peninsular India?

The study investigates the mechanism responsible for the deficit rainfall over southwest peninsular India during the 2016 monsoon season. Analysis shows that the large-scale variation in circulation pattern due to the strong, negative Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon was the reason for the deficit rainfall. Significant reduction in the number of northward-propagating monsoon-organized convections together with fast propagation over the southwest peninsular India resulted in reduction in rainfall. On the other hand, their persistence for longer time over the central part of India resulted in normal rainfall. It was found that the strong convection over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean creates strong convergence over that region. The combined effect of the sinking due to the well-developed Walker circulation originated over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the descending limb of the monsoon Hadley cell caused strong subsidence over the western equatorial Indian Ocean. The tail of this large-scale sinking extended up to the southern parts of India. This hinders formation of monsoon-organized convections leading to a large deficiency of rainfall during monsoon 2016 over the southwest peninsular India.