Western Basin Research Articles

Equatorial Dynamics Significantly Weakened the Southward Somali Current Circulation during 1997–98

Abstract Based on reanalysis data and numerical model, this study documented an unusually weak southward Somali Current (SSC) circulation, an anticlockwise circulation in the western Arabian Sea, during the winter of 1997 to spring 1998, throughout the two-decade period from 1994 to 2017. Theoretical analysis and model simulations suggest that the exceptionally weak SSC circulation was primarily caused by abnormal wind forcing around the equator, associated with extreme climate events. The strong equatorial easterly anomalies are mainly responsible for the weakening of the SSC circulation north of ∼6°N and contribute to about half of the weakening south of ∼6°N, by regulating the layer thickness along the eastern boundary, following the time-dependent Sverdrup relation. The large negative wind stress curl anomalies near the equator contribute to another half of the weakening south of ∼6°N. This research underscores the dynamic connection between the circulation in the western basin and equatorial dynamics during extreme climate modes. Significance Statement The dynamic linkage between the western basin circulation and the equatorial forcing remains elusive. Based on reanalysis data, theoretical analysis, and numerical simulations, this study has confirmed that the exceptionally weak southward Somali Current circulation during the winter of 1997 to spring 1998 was significantly influenced by abnormal wind patterns around the equator, triggered by extreme climate modes.

Contrasting the role of historic factors in phylogeograpic patterns in the native Johnny darter (Etheostoma nigrum) and invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in lower michigan.

Round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is an invasive fish present in all five Great Lakes and is becoming increasingly common in their tributaries. Johnny darter (Etheostoma nigrum) is a native species that often coexists with N. melanostomus. In this work, historic factors are addressed as a source of genomic variation in study populations of these species. To do this, patterns of variation in the mitochondrial gene NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 (ND2) were characterized for both species throughout Lower Michigan. Populations of N. melanostomus and E. nigrum were sampled from 17 localities representing both eastern and western basins of Lower Michigan to test the hypothesis that populations differ between the eastern and western basins of the Great Lakes. Neogobius melanostomus populations were largely homogenous with no significant differences detected among populations or between the eastern and western basins. Additionally, N. melanostomus exhibited no evidence of overarching historical genetic structure, consistent with the recent invasion and rapid expansion of this species. Etheostoma nigrum exhibited significant differentiation among local populations; however, similarity among mtDNA haplotypes indicated that differences among populations are recent, suggesting that local forces are a more important factor in shaping patterns of variation than historical factors. Contrary to predictions, there were no significant differences detected between the eastern and western basins of the Great Lakes; however, construction of a neighbor-joining tree with F ST estimates revealed clustering of populations by basin with some anomalies. These anomalies may be the result of recent stream capture events facilitating gene flow between the two basins.

Open ocean convection drives enhanced eastern pathway of the Glacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abundant proxy records suggest a profound reorganization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21,000 y ago), with the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) shoaling significantly relative to the present-day (PD) and forming Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW). However, almost all previous observational and modeling studies have focused on the zonal mean two-dimensional AMOC feature, while recent progress in the understanding of modern AMOC reveals a more complicated three-dimensional structure, with NADW penetrating from the subpolar North Atlantic to lower latitude through different pathways. Here, combining 231Pa/230Th reconstructions and model simulations, we uncover a significant change in the three-dimensional structure of the glacial AMOC. Specifically, the mid-latitude eastern pathway (EP), located east of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and transporting about half of the PD NADW from the subpolar gyre to the subtropical gyre, experienced substantial intensification during the LGM. A greater portion of the GNAIW was transported in the eastern basin during the LGM compared to NADW at the PD, resulting in opposite 231Pa/230Th changes between eastern and western basins during the LGM. Furthermore, in contrast to the wind-steering mechanism of EP at PD, the intensified LGM EP was caused primarily by the rim current forced by the basin-scale open-ocean convection over the subpolar North Atlantic. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for three-dimensional oceanographic changes to achieve more accurate reconstructions of past AMOC.

Patterns of (micro)nutrient limitation across the South Pacific Ocean

Nutrient limitation regulates phytoplankton growth throughout much of the global ocean and its assessment is important for our understanding of future changes in ocean productivity. The South Pacific Ocean represents a vast region where limiting nutrients have so far been investigated with only a handful of experiments. Here we report the results of eleven nutrient addition bioassay experiments conducted across the South Pacific Ocean at ca. 30°S as part of the GEOTRACES GP21 expedition. Nitrogen addition alone stimulated chlorophyll-a accumulation at all sites, whilst increases were larger following supplementary addition of iron in the eastern and central basin, and phosphate in the western basin. Enhanced iron stress following nitrogen addition in the eastern and central basin further pointed towards ambient iron concentrations approaching co-limiting levels. The overall east-to-west shift in serial limiting nutrients from iron to phosphate was attributed to a broadscale east-west increase in iron availability relative to nitrogen.

Presenting a transdisciplinary robust approach for comprehensive assessment of large-scale underground water resources in western Indo-Gangetic Basin

Overexploitation, pollution, and anthropogenic activities threaten the sustainability of groundwater resources in the western Indo-Gangetic Basin. Meanwhile, distinguishing regions prone to contamination and understanding the natural and anthropogenic factors affecting groundwater quality is challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of aquifer systems and the lack of high-resolution spatial and temporal data on aquifer protective hydrogeological layers. This study presents a transdisciplinary robust approach combining regional electrical resistivity surveys, hydrogeological data, physicochemical analyses, and geospatial datasets to identify regions prone to contamination and understand the impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors on groundwater resources. This approach involves three key steps: evaluating the geohydraulic nature of aquifer protective hydrogeological layers, mapping the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), and conducting comparative analyses of potentially vulnerable areas with groundwater quality index (GWQI) and hydrological factors. Firstly, model-based inversion of ID Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) data provides insights into geoelectrical indices such as depth, thickness, apparent resistivity, longitudinal conductance, transverse resistance, and longitudinal resistivity of aquifer protective hydrogeological layers. Second, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is used as a multilayer perceptron network to simulate hydraulic conductivity (K) using geoelectrical indices of aquifer protective hydrogeological layers. Subsequently, by considering ANN-derived K and VES-derived h of aquifer protective hydrogeological layers, the dynamic hydraulic resistance to the vertical flow of wastewater through the protective hydrogeological layers evaluated the index of the potentially vulnerable areas. Comparative analyses of potentially vulnerable areas with GWQI and hydrological factors (e.g., digital elevation model, soil, drainage density, lineament density, slope) enhance understanding regions prone to contaminants and land surface stress. Findings show that the ANN approach to simulate K, reducing effort with costs associated with slug testing is significant for AVI assessment. Furthermore, the geohydraulic characteristics, vulnerability indexing, and comparative analyses assist in identifying contamination-prone areas, improving groundwater resource protection and exploration activities.

Dynamic analysis of soil erosion and sediment yield engrossment involving rainfall, land use and land cover impacts using GIS-based RUSLE & SDR modeling: southern western Ghats River Basin of Kerala, India

Dynamic analysis of soil erosion and sediment yield engrossment involving rainfall, land use and land cover impacts using GIS-based RUSLE & SDR modeling: southern western Ghats River Basin of Kerala, India

Amazonian amphibians: diversity, spatial distribution patterns, conservation and sampling deficits.

The Amazon biome is home to the largest tropical forest on the planet and has the greatest global biodiversity on Earth. Despite this, several less charismatic taxonomic groups, such as amphibians, lack comprehensive studies on their species richness and spatial distribution in the Amazon Region. In this study, we investigated: i) patterns of richness and endemism of Amazonian amphibians across geopolitical and biogeographic divisions, ii) similarities between different Amazonian bioregions, iii) temporal trends in amphibian sampling, iv) conservation status of amphibians according to assessments of the IUCN and v) the importance of diverse data sources in building a robust database of amphibian occurrences. We aggregated data from four different sources: publicly accessible platforms, peer-reviewed articles, grey literature and fieldwork inventories spanning 15 years (2007-2021), ultimately compiling 160,643 records of 947 species across 7,418 sampled sites. The greatest diversity of species was found in Peru, Brazil and Ecuador, with notable amphibian diversity and endemism in regions such as the western basins and the Tapajós River Basin in the central-southern Amazon. Geographical analysis of species diversity revealed four distinct groups defined by latitudinal (the Amazon River) and longitudinal (the Juruá, Madeira and Tapajós Rivers) gradients, with low species similarity (< 40%), particularly in the basins of north-western Amazonia. Amphibian sampling in the Amazon has intensified since the 1950s with the establishment of important research centres such as INPA and the GOELD Museum in the Brazilian Amazon. Approximately 18% of Amazonian amphibian species face extinction risk, according to IUCN assessments, highlighting the need for comprehensive data sources to understand and conserve species in this megadiverse region. Our findings suggest that river systems likely influence Amazonian amphibian species composition due to biogeographic history, emphasising the need for robust taxonomic and spatial databases. This study, therefore, contributes a valuable large-scale dataset for Amazonian amphibians, guiding future research and strategies for amphibian conservation.

Food web structure across basins in Lake Erie, a large freshwater ecosystem

Understanding spatial variation of aquatic food web structure and how ecosystem boundaries should be delineated is important. Here, we investigated the spatial variation in food web structure within Lake Erie across its three basins using δ13C and δ15N. Fish and lower trophic level composition were similar but differences in food web structure were observed between basins. The food web in the central basin had the smallest δ13C and δ15N range and total area based on stable isotope values by the aquatic community, likely due to chronic epibenthic hypoxia in the summer that affects fish habitat and resources. The largest δ15N range was in the east, driven by the high trophic position of lake trout present in this deepest basin. The western basin had the largest mean distance to the centroid (CD) of all three basins, indicating a large trophic diversity, probably due to high nutrient loadings and productivity. This research revealed spatial variability of food web structure in large lake ecosystems and the importance of considering smaller sub-units, such as basin, in large lakes.

Present-day stress field, strain rate field and seismicity of the Pannonian region: overview and integrated analysis

We present an overview of recent findings on the seismicity, stress field and strain rate field of the Pannonian region. We furthermore show new inferences for deformation mechanisms and lithospheric rheology via an integrated analysis of the datasets. The N-NW motion of the Dinarides and the opposite, SW motion of the E-and S-Carpathians induce shortening in the western and central Pannonian Basin while leading to regional shearing around the basin's SE boundary. This induces moderate seismic activity related to strike-slip and reverse faulting. Maximum horizontal stress and geodetic shortening directions generally agree, implying that upper crustal stresses and surface deformation correspond to the same forces. 2D rheological models confirm that the shallow upper crust is the only brittle layer in the Pannonian lithosphere, while the brittle-ductile transition zone could be as shallow as 6-9.5 km in the Danube Basin. Comparison of seismic moment rates and moment rate predictions from geodetic strain rates show that deep Pannonian sub-basins accumulate major seismic deficits. This could be explained by dominantly aseismic deformation of the weak upper crust, as supported by a comparison with case studies from different geodynamic environments. Stronger mountainous regions in the study area show no to moderate seismic deficits.

The first spatio-temporal study of the microplastics and meso–macroplastics transport in the Romanian Danube

BackgroundTransport, accumulation, and degradation of microplastics (MiPs) in the aquatic environment represent a significant concern to the researchers and policy-makers, due to the detrimental impact on biota and human health through food ingestion. Although consistent investigations and research data are available worldwide, comparing the results is still challenging due to the need for more regulations regarding the sampling methods, analysis, and results reporting. The European regulatory efforts include studies on the MiPs transport in the western basin of the Danube River developed with active nets-based multipoint sampling methods from suspended sediments and proposed for standardization. In this context, the present study aimed to address for the first time the transport of MiPs in the Romanian sector of the Danube, starting after entering the country (Moldova Veche) and before the formation of the Danube Delta (Isaccea).ResultsThe multipoint nets sampling procedure facilitated the collection of suspended sediments in the water columns as deep as 0.0–0.6 and 3.0–3.6 m depths and near riverbed sediments (autumn 2022 sampling) during an extensive spatio-temporal study from spring 2022 until spring 2023. The estimate of the maximum annual transport of 46–51 and 93–100 t·y−1 for MiPs and total (micro–meso–macroplastics) MPs at Moldova Veche was based on 135 collected and processed samples using 2021 water flow data. Polyethylene (58–69%) and polypropylene (21–33%) were the main polymer components in the separated fragments, foils, microfibers, and different colors spheroids of MiPs ( < 5 mm), and the foils and fibers of meso–macroplastics (5–100 mm). Advanced investigations highlighted various microstructural degradations of the plastic fragments at the micro- and nanoscale and attached minerals (clays) and heavy metals.ConclusionThis paper presents the first comprehensive data set for microplastic annual transport in the "Low Danube", filling the need for a complete transport assessment in one of the most significant European rivers. 4–5 times lower values were measured before the entrance to the Danube Delta than those from Moldova Veche. The investigations should continue, including flooding events, and the sampling points should be expanded to deeper water column layers during all the campaigns for further validation.Graphical

Basin-scale exhumed Cretaceous fluvial systems (Chubut Group, Cañadón Asfalto basin), central Patagonia, Argentina

This contribution describes basin-scale, Cretaceous (Late Aptian to Cenomanian-Early Turonian) fluvial systems outcropped over ∼30,000 km2 that contain more than 7000 exhumed paleochannels in the Chubut Group, Cañadón Asfalto basin (central Patagonia), Argentina. Paleochannels are encased within a ∼350 m thick stratigraphic interval (∼20 My) including volcaniclastic and epiclastic fluvial units (Cerro Barcino and Puesto Manuel Arce formations). Geomorphologically, the exhumed paleochannels conform to isolated sandstones/conglomeratic ridges, a swarm of paleochannels, and elongated/equidimensional mesas (plateaus), characterizing much of the “mesetiform” landscape in central Chubut. The plan-view analysis of exhumed paleochannels mainly shows a mean WNW-ESE orientation (112°–292°) and predominance of narrow (83.1%) and very narrow (14.4%), low-sinuosity channels (96%). A plan-view multi-scale architectural analysis of sandbodies allows us to recognize different fluvial hierarchies: a) 3rd-order lithosomes (macroform growth increments), b) 4th-order lithosomes (point bars and crevasse-channels), b) 5th-order lithosomes (main channels), and c) 6th-order lithosomes (channel belts). Two main types of channel arrangements in the exhumed fluvial systems were recognized: fixed-channel and mobile channel belts. We observed a broad relationship between geomorphologic configurations and fluvial architectural units. Some macro spatiotemporal variation in the fluvial architecture was observed towards the youngest positions, including wider channels and a greater relative abundance of high-sinuosity channels with point bars. The basin-scale distribution of exhumed paleochannels would allow us to infer the predominance of shallow lacustrine or lagoon deposits in the western basin region, probably controlled by the inherited topography of the Jurassic- Early Cretaceous depocenters.

Sediment Types with Alternation of Sandy and Rocky Shores Influence the Distribution of Clams in an Area Characterized by High-Energy Hydrodynamic Conditions

To identify short-term changes (14–69 days) in the adult abundance of two closely related shallow-burrowing bivalves (Ruditapes spp.), a series of observations and displacement assessments were made during the 2014–2018 period. This study was initiated to estimate the natural displacement of clams in a high-energy hydrodynamic tidal regime along the western coast of Cotentin in Normandy, France (western basin of the English Channel, northeastern Atlantic). The raking of several different surfaces and sediment types at successive periods separated by about one month shows clam displacement in most of the selected quadrats. The mean abundance displacement derived from all the observations carried out in 2014, 2016 and 2018 is estimated at 1.8 ind·m−2 mo−1, a value that should be compared with the mean density of between 2.0 and 12.5 ind·m−2 along the western coast of Cotentin. These displacements are confirmed with experiments using clams marked with an inox metal washer and detected with a Minelab Sovereign GT multi-frequency metal detector. During the course of the experiments, about 20% of the clams show a displacement. Most of the displacements are moderate, being less than 2 m, but some clams could be displaced by more than 20 m.

Detrital zircon U-Pb ages and provenance of Paleogene paleochannel strata, Sierra Nevada and western Nevada: Implications for paleotopographic evolution

The Paleogene paleotopography of the western United States, which may grant insight into Farallon subduction dynamics and North American Cordillera orogenic processes, can be constrained by reconstructing drainage networks through sediment provenance studies. In the northern Sierra Nevada, the provenance of SW-directed, Paleogene paleochannel deposits is controversial; prior studies favor either sources proximal to the deposits or distal source areas in central Nevada. These different hypothesized source areas would have contrasting implications for the paleotopography of the Sierra Nevada and western Basin and Range. We conducted a new provenance analysis of paleochannel deposits in the Sierra Nevada and western Nevada using new and compiled detrital zircon U-Pb age data from across the preserved paleochannel network, together with compiled bedrock geochronologic ages of potential sediment source areas for the paleochannel deposits. The geochro­nology compilation of potential source areas reveals systematic longitudinal variations in bedrock ages within the study area. Jurassic ages are present primarily in the western Sierra Nevada batholith, Cretaceous ages are dominant in the eastern Sierra Nevada batholith, and Eocene ages are present only in north-central Nevada. The distribution of potential source ages allows confident inference of sediment provenance from detrital zircon U-Pb ages. The distributions of detrital zircon U-Pb ages in the paleochannel depos­its can be categorized into three distinct types. The first type, found in the vicinity of Malakoff Diggins State Historic Park (SHP) and further northwest, is dominated by Jurassic, Paleozoic, and Precambrian ages reflecting derivation from local sources in the western Sierra Nevada, and also contains scattered Eocene ages. The lack of Late Cretaceous ages in these samples, despite the presence of Late Cretaceous plutons in close proximity to the east, suggests small sediment source areas with fluvial transport of zircon grains no farther than 50 km. The few Eocene ages in these samples likely reflect volcanic air fall, consistent with an overlying tuff at one sample site that is interpreted to have its volcanic source to the north, outside the paleochannel network. The second zircon age distribution type, from samples south of Malakoff Diggins SHP, includes Cretaceous and Jurassic ages representative of exposed bedrock across the entire width of the Sierra Nevada batholith but no Eocene ages. This combination of ages suggests a sediment source area that encompassed the entire batholith but did not include north-central Nevada. The third zircon age distribution type, from samples to the northeast of Malakoff Diggins SHP, contains Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Eocene ages consistent with fluvial derivation of sediment from the entire width of the Sierran batholith as well as from north-central Nevada. This third type only occurs in fluvial deposits interbedded with Oligocene ignimbrite tuffs, whereas samples older than the Oligocene tuffs belong to zircon age distribution types 1 or 2. Thus, prior to the emplacement of Oligocene ignimbrites, there is no evidence of fluvial transport of sand-sized sediment from north-central Nevada sources to Sierran paleochannel deposits. The lack of pre-Oligocene fluvial transport across the Sierra Nevada may reflect either a Paleogene drainage divide that separated the Sierra Nevada from north-central Nevada or a large-scale knick zone with a low-gradient upstream reach that trapped sand and larger sediment. The first arrival of fluvially transported Eocene zircon grains following Oligocene ignimbrite emplacement suggests that ignimbrite volcanism, and related hinterland uplift, established or promoted sediment transport from north-central Nevada across the Sierra Nevada by driving drainage reorganization or steepening existing channels. Our provenance analysis broadly confirms previous paleochannel network reconstructions, especially for the Ancestral Yuba River, and thus validates the use of paleochannel deposits as a datum by which to infer post-Paleogene tilting of the northern Sierra Nevada. Azimuthal trends in Ancestral Yuba River paleochannel gradient suggest ~0.6° SW-directed, post-Paleogene tilting of the northern Sierra Nevada, which would have resulted in ~1 km of uplift of the range crest. Such a magnitude is consistent with Eocene–Oligocene stable isotope paleoelevation estimates.

Coupling of potential habitat models with particle tracking experiments to examine larval fish dispersal and connectivity in deep water regions.

Computing Lagrangian trajectories with ocean circulation models is a powerful way to infer larval dispersal pathways and connectivity. Defining release areas and timing of particles to represent larval habitat realistically is critical to obtaining representative dispersal pathways. However, it is challenging due to spatial and temporal variability in larval density. Forward-tracking particle experiments were conducted to study larval connectivity of four species (neritic or mesopelagic) in the Gulf of Mexico's (GoM) deep-water region. A seasonal climatology coupled with predicted potential larval habitat models based on generalized additive models was used to delimit the particle dispersal origin. Two contrasting mesoscale circulation patterns were examined: (1) high Loop Current (LC) intrusion, absence of recently detached LC anticyclonic eddies (LC-ACE), and no interaction between LC-ACEs and the semi-permanent cyclonic eddy (CE) in the Bay of Campeche (BoC), and (2) limited LC intrusion, a recently detached LC-ACE, and interaction between LC-ACEs and the BoC's CE. To simulate larval transport, virtual larvae were randomly released in the potential habitats and advected for 30 days with the velocity fields of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model with hourly-resolution assimilation. Potential habitat location and size played a major role in dispersal and connectivity. A greater percentage of particles were retained in potential habitats restricted to the southern BoC, suggesting lower connectivity with other GoM regions than those encompassing most of the BoC or the central Gulf. Mesoscale feature interactions in the western GoM and BoC led to greater dispersion along the western basin. By contrast, the absence of ACE-CE interaction in the BoC led to greater retention and less connectivity between the southern and northern GoM. Under high LC intrusion, particles seeded north of the Yucatan Shelf were advected through the Florida Straits and dispersed within the GoM. Coupling potential habitat models with particle experiments can help characterize the dispersal and connectivity of fish larvae in oceanic systems.

Detrital-zircon U-Pb and (U-Th)/He double-dating provenance signatures in the Jaca foreland basin: interplay of direct vs. recycled sources during Pyrenean orogenic growth

ABSTRACT The Eocene to Miocene clastic wedge of the south Pyrenean basin constitutes a reference model to understand the progressive evolution of sediment provenance and source-to-sink dynamics in a foreland basin. We present new detrital-zircon (DZ) U-Pb and U-Pb-He (ZHe) double-dating data from the Jaca basin and the Ebro basin, providing insights into the evolution of the sedimentary systems that record a major tectonic and drainage reorganization from the late Eocene to Miocene. Three distinct DZ U-Pb signatures have been identified: i) Variscan dominated, ii) mixed Cadomian–Variscan, iii) Cadomian dominated, and two DZ ZHe signatures: i) Pyrenean dominated, ii) pre-Pyrenean dominated. Coupling DZ U-Pb, ZHe, and petrographic data allows us to discriminate among distinct Pyrenean sources as well as to understand how DZ signatures are propagated in a source-to-sink system. Our results indicate that while the eastern Jaca basin was fed from eastern source areas located in the central and eastern Pyrenees, the western Jaca basin was fed from the Basque massifs and the Urbasa–Andía Sierra (Basque–Cantabrian Pyrenees).

Seasonal Carbon Budget Succession in Lake Erie's Western Basin

AbstractLake Erie's Western Basin is a eutrophic region and likely hotspot for carbon transformation. While this basin has received much attention for its high nutrient loads from the Maumee River and recurring harmful algal blooms, carbon has gone understudied. To investigate the seasonal and spatial variability in inorganic and organic carbon budgets, we completed three surveys in spring, summer, and fall on a transect from the Maumee River to South Bass Island. In each survey, we observed higher spatial variability of all carbon species within 11 km of the Maumee River mouth relative to sites outside of Maumee Bay. This variability was driven by pulses of direct river water carbon, steep nutrient gradients, and patchy bloom conditions. Seasonal variability was also greater in Maumee Bay, with the highest river discharge in June adding large amounts of dissolved inorganic and organic carbon and pCO2 flux out of the water when productivity from the diatom bloom was smaller. In August, when and where we observed a Microcystis bloom, particulate organic carbon increased in concentration, and pCO2 flux switched directions into the water. In October, Chl‐a concentrations and oxygen saturations were lowest, indicating a seasonal slowdown in productivity, and river discharge was the lowest, resulting in the lowest total carbon observed and dissolved organic matter chemistry indicating less contribution from the terrestrial watershed. In the open water outside of Maumee Bay seasonal and spatial carbon budget dynamics were more stable, highlighting the importance of riverine inputs on lake carbon cycling.

A parallel machine learning-based approach for tsunami waves forecasting using regression trees

Following a seismic event, tsunami early warning systems (TEWSs) try to provide precise forecasts of the maximum height of incoming waves at designated target points along the coast. This information is crucial to trigger early warnings in areas where the impact of tsunami waves is predicted to be dangerous (or potentially cause destruction), to help the management of the potential impact of a tsunami as well as reduce environmental destruction and losses of human lives. For such a reason, it is crucial that TEWSs produce predictions with short computation time while maintaining a high prediction accuracy. This paper presents a parallel machine learning approach, based on regression trees, to discover tsunami predictive models from simulation data. In order to achieve the results in a short time, the proposed approach relies on the parallelization of the most time consuming tasks and on incremental learning executions, in order to achieve higher performances in terms of execution time, efficiency and scalability. The experimental evaluation, performed on two real tsunami cases occurred in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean basin in 2003 and 2017, shows reasonable advantages in terms of scalability and execution time, which is an important benefit in a urgent-computing scenarios.

Characterization of winter PM2.5 source contributions and impacts of meteorological conditions and anthropogenic emission changes in the Sichuan Basin, 2002–2020

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality–Integrated Source Apportionment Method (CMAQ–ISAM) were utilized, which were integrated with the Multiresolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) emission inventory, to simulate winter PM2.5 concentrations, regional transport, and changes in emission source contributions in the Sichuan basin (SCB) from 2002 to 2020, considering variations in meteorological conditions and anthropogenic emissions. The results indicated a gradual decrease in the basin's winter average PM2.5 concentration from 300 μg/m3 to 120 μg/m3, with the most significant decrease occurring after 2014, reflecting the actual impact of China's air pollution control measures. Spatially, the main pollution area shifted from Chongqing to Chengdu and the western basin. The sources of PM2.5 at the eastern and western margins of the basin have remained stable and have been dominated by local emissions for many years, while the sources of PM2.5 in the central part of the basin have evolved from a multiregional co-influenced source during the early period to a high proportion of local emissions; except for boundary condition sources, residential sources were the main PM2.5 sources in the basin (approximately 29.70 %), followed by industrial sources (approximately 14.11 %). Industrial sources exhibited higher contributions in Chengdu and Chongqing and gradually stabilized with residential sources over the years, while residential sources dominated in the eastern and western parts of the basin and exhibited a declining trend. Meteorological conditions exacerbated pollution in the whole basin from 2008 to 2014, especially in the west (21–40 μg/m3). The eastern basin and Chongqing exhibited more years with alleviated meteorological pollution, including a 40+ μg/m3 decrease in Chongqing from 2002 to 2005. Reduced anthropogenic emissions alleviated annual pollution levels, with a greater reduction (> −20 μg/m3) after 2011 due to pollution control measures.

Deep learning-based streamflow prediction for western Himalayan river basins

Deep learning-based streamflow prediction for western Himalayan river basins

A novel explainable PSO-XGBoost model for regional flood frequency analysis at a national scale: Exploring spatial heterogeneity in flood drivers

Identifying flood drivers and accurately estimating design floods play a crucial role in fostering sustainable and effective planning and management strategies for mitigating flood risks. Regional Flood frequency Analysis (RFFA) is one of the most commonly used approaches to estimate design floods in ungauged watersheds. This study used XGBoost coupled with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to estimate different quantiles of the design floods with return periods (from 2-year to 1000-year). After a preliminary assessment, 373 nationwide hydrometric stations were selected to conduct at-site flood frequency analysis by identifying the best-fitting distribution. Using the capabilities of GIS and Google Earth Engine (GEE), 83 independent features including different physiographical, geomorphological, land-use, soil types, and long-term hydro-climatic and environmental variables were extracted for the upstream watersheds. After fine-tuning the hyper-parameters of the XGBoost method for each flood quantile, the feature importance values were used to eliminate the insignificant features and refine the developed models. Additionally, classical methods such as Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) were implemented, to evaluate the XGBoost models efficiency. Different statistics demonstrated that the models effectively estimated flood quantiles, with the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) varying from 0.709 to 0.840 across all models. A comparison of model performance reveals that the XGBoost method outperformed RF and SVR across all flood quantiles. Based on the developed models, design floods have been estimated for 949 stations across Iran. Furthermore, the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values were used to identify the main contributing features to model outputs and investigate the spatial heterogeneity of main flood drivers. According to the results, the perimeter and length of the watershed and heavy rainfall exhibit notably high importance compared to other features for all models. Based on the local SHAP values, in Northern, Northwestern, and Western basins, features associated with watershed sizes, such as perimeter, area and length exhibit the highest levels of importance. Moreover, the Southwest basins are more influenced by “heavy rainfall”. These findings demonstrate the promise of the developed models for estimating flood quantiles across diverse environmental, geomorphological, and hydro-climatic conditions. This capability is valuable for sustainable watershed management, especially in environments with limited maximum discharge data.