Western Baltic Sea Research Articles

Climate change or mismanagement?

Climate change and deoxygenation are affecting fish stocks on a global scale, but disentangling the impacts of these stressors from the effects of overfishing is a challenge. This study was conducted to distinguish between climate change and mismanagement as possible causes for the drastic decline in spawning stock size and reproductive success in cod (Gadus morhua) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea, when compared with the good or satisfactory status and reproductive success of the other commercial species in the area. Available data on water temperature, wind speed, and plankton bloom during the spawning season did not reveal conclusive correlations between years with good and bad reproductive success of cod or herring. Notably, the other commercial species in the area have very similar life history traits suggesting similar resilience against stress caused by climate change or fishing. The study concludes that severe, sustained overfishing plus inappropriate size selectivity of the main fishing gears have caused the decline in spawning stock biomass of cod and herring to levels that are known to have a high probability of impaired reproductive success. It is pointed out that allowed catches were regulated by management and adhered to by the fishers, meaning that unregulated fishing did not occur. Thus, mismanagement (quotas that were too high and gears that selected too small sizes) and not climate change appears to be the primary cause of the bad status of cod and herring in the Western Baltic Sea.

Classification Ensembles for Beach Cast and Drifting Vegetation Mapping with Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope

Along the Baltic coastline of Germany, drifting vegetation and beach cast create overlays at the otherwise sandy or stony beaches. These overlays influence the morphodynamics and structures of the beaches. To better understand the influence of these patchy habitats on coastal environments, regular monitoring is necessary. Most studies, however, have been conducted on spatially larger and temporally more stable occurrences of aquatic vegetation such as floating fields of Sargassum. Nevertheless, drifting vegetation and beach cast pose a particular challenge, as they exhibit high temporal dynamics and sometimes small spatial extent. Regular surveys and mappings are the traditional methods to record their habitats, but they are time-consuming and cost-intensive. Spaceborne remote sensing can provide frequent recordings of the coastal zone at lower cost. Our study therefore aims at the monitoring of drifting vegetation and beach cast on spatial scales between 3 and 10 m. We developed an automated coastline masking algorithm and tested six supervised classification methods and various classification ensembles for their suitability to detect small-scale assemblages of drifting vegetation and beach cast in a study area at the coastline of the Western Baltic Sea using multispectral data of the sensors Sentinel-2 MSI and PlanetScope. The shoreline masking algorithm shows high accuracies in masking the land area while preserving the sand-covered shoreline. We could achieve best classification results using PlanetScope data with an ensemble of a random forest classifier, cart classifier, support vector machine classifier, naïve bayes classifier and stochastic gradient boosting classifier. This ensemble accomplished a combined f1-score of 0.95. The accuracy of the Sentinel-2 classifications was lower but still achieved a combined f1-score of 0.86 for the same ensemble. The results of this study can be considered as a starting point for the development of time series analysis of the vegetation dynamics along Baltic beaches.

How can Sentinel‐2 contribute to seagrass mapping in shallow, turbid Baltic Sea waters?

AbstractSeagrass meadows are one of the most important benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea. Nevertheless, spatially continuous mapping data of Zostera marina, the predominant seagrass species in the Baltic Sea, are lacking in the shallow coastal waters. Sentinel‐2 turned out to be valuable for mapping coastal benthic habitats in clear waters, whereas knowledge in turbid waters is rare. Here, we transfer a clear water mapping approach to turbid waters to assess how Sentinel‐2 can contribute to seagrass mapping in the Western Baltic Sea. Sentinel‐2 data were atmospherically corrected using ACOLITE and subsequently corrected for water column effects. To generate a data basis for training and validating random forest classification models, we developed an upscaling approach using video transect data and aerial imagery. We were able to map five coastal benthic habitats: bare sand (25 km²), sand dominated (16 km²), seagrass dominated (7 km²), dense seagrass (25 km²) and mixed substrates with red/ brown algae (3.5 km²) in a study area along the northern German coastline. Validation with independent data pointed out that water column correction does not significantly improve classification results compared to solely atmospherically corrected data (balanced overall accuracies ~0.92). Within optically shallow waters (0–4 m), per class and overall balanced accuracies (>0.82) differed marginally depending on the water depth. Overall balanced accuracy became worse (<0.8) approaching the border to optically deep water (~ 5 m). The spatial resolution of Sentinel‐2 (10–20 m) allowed delineating detailed spatial patterns of seagrass habitats, which may serve as a basis to retrieve spatially continuous data for ecologically relevant metrics such as patchiness. Thus, Sentinel‐2 can contribute unprecedented information for seagrass mapping between 0 and around 5 m water depths in the Western Baltic Sea.

Functional responses of an invasive mud crab across a salinity gradient

Environmental gradients may alter the ecological impacts of invasive alien species. In marine systems such as the Baltic Sea, current salinity is variable and seawater freshening is projected in future, potentially facilitating novel keystone predators. Here, we examine the influence of salinity variation in the western Baltic Sea (i.e. ambient 10, then 7 and 4 ppt) on the functional response (FR) of the Harris mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii towards benthic macroinvertebrate prey at different densities. Rhithropanopeus harrisii displayed a Type II FR across salinities towards larval chironomids, due to a consistently high resource consumption rate at low prey densities. Feeding rates were significantly reduced at 4 ppt (mean 6 chironomid prey killed day−1) compared to 10 ppt and 7 ppt (9 killed day−1). Search efficiencies tended to be greatest at 10 ppt, whereas handling times were shortest — and maximum feeding rate highest — at the intermediate 7 ppt. These results suggest a slight reduction in predatory impact by R. harrisii at lower salinities. Nevertheless, across most prey densities, FRs were not significantly different, indicating sustained interaction strength across a range of salinity regimes.

The ‘Cod-Multiple’: Modes of Existence of Fish, Science and People

Fish represent a politically regulated, scientifically researched, industrially processed, commercially marketed and socially contested living marine resource. Related to this, the incorporation of resource users and stakeholders into fisheries management is particularly important. Such involvement has recently improved in terms of frequency, but institutional frameworks often result in a lack of recognition and integration of the diverse ‘knowledges’ of stakeholders involved. Against this background, we aim to uncover the potentials of additional knowledge types for management purposes, paving the way toward a more collaborative management. We first conducted qualitative expert interviews with different stakeholder groups (e.g., commercial fisheries, eNGO and administration) to map various ‘knowledges’ about cod (Gadus morhua), a major resource species in the Western Baltic Sea to reveal the various experiences and epistemologies revolving around it. The second analytical step consisted of examining how these ‘knowledges’ structure, inform and often enter into conflict with perspectives on and assessments of fisheries management. Potentials were identified regarding enhanced stakeholder engagement in management processes that provide food for thought to seek change in sustainable management of fish stocks in the future. Our study is a pointer to the need to transform fisheries management in a more social and participatory way. We argue that sustainable natural resource management cannot be designed solely by integrating more ‘knowledges’ (knowledge sharing) but requires the creation of social contexts and institutions with stakeholder empowerment at the local level (power sharing) to sustainably manage natural resources such as commercially importance fish stocks.

Pulsed pressure: Fluctuating impacts of multifactorial environmental change on a temperate macroalgal community

AbstractGlobal change impacts marine organisms and communities mainly through ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in nutrient inputs and water circulation. To assess the ecological impacts of global change, the effects of multiple interacting environmental drivers, including their fluctuations, should be tested at different levels of biological organization. In an outdoor mesocosm study, we investigated the differential effects of three simulated upwelling events coupled with ocean warming (1–5°C above ambient) on a temperate benthic community in the Western Baltic Sea. Ocean warming, especially in summer when temperatures are close to or above the physiological optimum of many species, is likely to impose thermal stress with species‐specific impacts. As the properties of deep water vary seasonally, so will the effects of upwelling. Upwelling of cooler deep water in midsummer may alleviate thermal stress, although this mitigation may be modulated by upwelling‐associated shifts in other water‐quality parameters such as salinity, nutrients, or late‐summer hypoxia. This investigation showed that in the Western Baltic Ocean warming was rather beneficial in early and late summer but detrimental when ambient temperatures were highest in midsummer. The effects of upwelling in the absence of ocean warming were generally weakly beneficial, while this effect tended to vanish with intensifying imposed ocean warming. Hypoxia associated with the late summer upwelling impacted some of the grazer species but did not impact the macroalgae. We conclude that in coastal temperate benthic communities, ocean warming is the predominant stressor that may partially and seasonally be buffered by upwelling.

Experimental testing of density- and season-dependent growth in vegetative Fucus aquaculture and modelling of growth over one year for different cultivation scenarios

In the Kiel Fjord, western Baltic Sea, an experimental culture of Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus has been established in order to develop a sustainable method for biomass production of these species. The cultivation method includes the unattached rearing of fronds in drifting baskets and their vegetative reproduction by cutting of small vegetative apices. In this study, we performed culture experiments to measure growth rates with this method at different initial stocking densities (1–5 kg m−2) and during different seasons of the year. Using the results, we modelled growth over 1 year for different cultivation scenarios (different initial stocking densities (1–4.75 kg m−2) and harvest densities (1.25–5 kg m−2)) in order to identify optimal scenarios and estimate annual yields and the number of necessary harvests in these scenarios. Fucus vesiculosus showed a parabolic yield–density relationship with decreasing yields at high initial stocking densities (> 2.5 kg m−2). In contrast, F. serratus showed an asymptotic yield–density relationship with rather constant yields at high initial stocking densities. Both species showed a typical seasonal growth pattern with low growth rates during winter and high growth rates during summer; however, F. serratus seemed to be growth limited during summer which was not observed for F. vesiculosus. The modelling results reflected the results of the Density experiment: for F. vesiculosus, optimal cultivation scenarios were found for intermediate cultivation densities (initial stocking densities, 1.75–2.25 kg m−2; harvest densities, 3–4 kg m−2); for F. serratus, optimal cultivation scenarios included higher densities (initial stocking densities, 2.5–4 kg m−2; harvest density, 5 kg m−2). The model scenarios predicted maximal annual yields of 6.65–6.76 kg m−2 for F. vesiculosus and 6.88–6.99 kg m−2 for F. serratus. For both species, the number of harvests necessary to achieve these yields varied depending on the cultivation scenario from 2 to 6. Scenarios with only 1 harvest per year yielded slightly lower annual yields. We conclude that the modelling results offer a valid and helpful orientation for future efforts to produce Fucus species in commercial culture.

Restoring marine ecosystems: Spatial reef configuration triggers taxon‐specific responses among early colonizers

Abstract The longstanding debate in conservation biology on the importance of single large or several small (SLOSS) habitats for preserving biodiversity remains highly relevant, given the ongoing degradation and loss of natural habitats world‐wide. Restoration efforts are often constrained by limited resources, and insights from SLOSS studies therefore have important implications if restoration efforts can be optimized by manipulating the spatial configuration of restored habitats. Yet, the relevance of SLOSS for habitat restoration remains largely unexplored. Here, we report the effects of spatial reef configuration on early colonization of marine organisms after restoring boulder reef habitats. Reefs were restored in single large (SL) and several small (SS) designs in the western Baltic Sea, where century‐long boulder extraction has severely degraded large reef areas and likely exacerbated regional declines in commercially important gadoids (Gadidae spp.). We sampled the field sites using remote underwater video systems in a before‐after control‐impact (BACI) design and obtained probabilistic inferences on restoration and SLOSS effects from Bayesian hierarchical models. Probabilities of a positive restoration effect were high (>95%) for gadoids, labrids and demersal gobies, moderate (60%–75%) for species richness and sand gobies, and low (<5%) for flatfish abundance. Notably, gadoid abundance increased 60‐fold and 129‐fold on average at SL and SS respectively. The species composition at restored reefs deviated from control sites, mainly driven by large‐bodied piscivores. Spatial reef configuration had the strongest effect on small‐bodied mesopredators, including gobies, which were more abundant at SS and driving distinct species assemblages between the reef designs. In addition to providing suitable conditions for reef species, results suggest that SS can also benefit soft‐bottom taxa, possibly through a dispersed predator‐mediated effect relative to SL. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates that boulder reef restoration can strongly promote the abundance of exploited gadoids (e.g. Atlantic cod) and is therefore a promising management tool to support top‐down controls by predatory fishes in degraded marine systems. The higher abundance of mesopredators at reefs with a ‘several small’ configuration suggests that the SLOSS dilemma could have long‐term implications for trophic structure and resilience of restored habitats, and should therefore become an important facet within restoration strategies.

Data‐poor stock assessment of fish stocks co‐exploited by commercial and recreational fisheries: Applications to pike Esox lucius in the western Baltic Sea

AbstractInformation on catch and effort of recreational angling in mixed‐use fisheries (co‐exploited by commercial and recreational fishers) is often scarce, preventing the application of data‐rich stock assessments typically performed for industrialised commercial fisheries. This study shows how data‐poor stock assessment methods developed for marine fisheries, particularly a model class labelled as “catch‐only” models (COMs), offer a possible solution. As a case study, COMs are used to assess a northern pike Esox lucius L. stock around the German Baltic island of Rügen. Multiple COMs were fitted to a time series of total pike removals, and their outputs were used as explanatory variables in ensemble models. The stock was found to be fully exploited and currently declining. This study highlights the potential for using COMs to determine status of previously unassessed coastal and freshwater stocks facing recreational fishing pressure and demonstrates how incorporating recreational removals is crucial for achieving reliable insights into the status of mixed‐use stocks.

Impacts of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) on benthic invertebrate fauna: a case study from the Baltic Sea

The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) was first observed in the Baltic Sea in 1990 and has since displayed substantial secondary dispersal, establishing numerous dense populations where they may outcompete native fish and negatively impact prey species. There have been multiple round goby diet studies from both the Baltic Sea and the North American Great Lakes where they are similarly invasive. However, studies that quantify their effects on recipient ecosystems and, specifically, their impacts on the benthic invertebrate macrofauna are rare, particularly from European waters. In this study, we conducted the first before-after study of the potential effects of round goby on benthic invertebrate macrofauna taxa in marine-brackish habitats in Europe, focusing of two sites in the Western Baltic Sea, Denmark. Results were in line with those from the Great Lakes, indicating negative impacts on specific molluscan taxa (e.g. Cardiidae bivalves and Neritidae gastropods, which both showed a fall in detected densities of approximately 98% within the Guldborgsund Strait). In contrast, many other groups appeared to be largely unaffected or even show positive trends following invasion. Round goby gut content data were available at one of our study sites from the period immediately after the invasion. These data confirmed that round goby had in fact been preying on the subset of taxa displaying negative trends.

Multi-Use of the Sea as a Sustainable Development Instrument in Five EU Sea Basins

This paper examines the concept of maritime multi-use as a territorial/SPATIAL governance instrument for the enhancement of sustainable development in five EU sea basins. Multi-use (MU) is expected to enhance the productivity of blue economy sectors, as well as deliver additional socio-economic benefits related to the environmental and social dimensions of sustainable development. The paper provides a definition of maritime multi-use and identifies the multi-uses with the highest potential in EU sea basins. In each sea basin, multi-use plays a different role as concerns sustainable development. For the Eastern Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the MU focus should remain on the environmental pillar of sustainable development. In the North Sea, North Atlantic and Western Baltic Sea, addressing social sustainability seems a key precondition for success of MU in enhancement of sustainable spatial development at sea. Moreover, it has been suggested to introduce MU key global strategies such as SDGs or Macroregional strategies and action plans and to supplement maritime spatial planning with sectoral incentives and educational efforts as key vehicles supporting MU. The paper concludes by identifying aspects which, in order to inform maritime spatial planning and maritime governance regarding a more conscious application of the aforementioned concept, require further investigation. Key tasks are related to: more profound evaluation of performance of policies supporting MUs, researching the impact of MU on societal goals and on the MU costs and benefits, including external ones, and finally identifying the impact of MU on the development of various sectors and regions on land.

Where do you come from, where do you go: early life stage drift and migrations of cod inferred from otolith microchemistry and genetic population assignment

This study investigates stock mixing of genetically distinct Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks in the Kattegat, an area geographically located between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, by combining genetic population identification with habitat assignments from hatch to capture from otolith microchemistry. Cod captured in Kattegat were genetically assigned to either the North Sea or the endemic Kattegat population. Otolith chemical fingerprints differed significantly between populations during the larval and pelagic juvenile stage with higher strontium and lower barium and manganese concentrations in the North Sea population than the Kattegat population, indicating that North Sea cod are spawned in the North Sea or Skagerrak and drift into the Kattegat during the early life stages. Individual cod of both populations undertook frequent, but predominantly short-term, migrations to other areas than the Kattegat, with <25% of individuals remaining resident within the Kattegat throughout their life. Across seasons and age classes, the two populations were both most frequently distributed in the Kattegat (67%), with approximately 25% of both population distributed in the western Baltic Sea and less than 10% in the Skagerrak–North Sea. This study demonstrates the usefulness of this approach to infer population-specific connectivity and migration trajectories for individual fish and its potential applications in basic and applied fields of fish ecology and fisheries sciences.

Seasonal Photophysiological Performance of Adult Western Baltic Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae) Under Ocean Warming and Acidification

Shallow coastal marine ecosystems are exposed to intensive warming events in the last decade, threatening keystone macroalgal species such as the bladder wrack (Fucus vesiculosus, Phaeophyceae) in the Baltic Sea. Herein, we experimentally tested in four consecutive benthic mesocosm experiments, if the single and combined impact of elevated seawater temperature (Δ + 5°C) and pCO2 (1100 ppm) under natural irradiance conditions seasonally affected the photophysiological performance (i.e., oxygen production, in vivo chlorophyll a fluorescence, energy dissipation pathways and chlorophyll concentration) of Baltic Sea Fucus. Photosynthesis was highest in spring/early summer when water temperature and solar irradiance increases naturally, and was lowest in winter (December to January/February). Temperature had a stronger effect than pCO2 on photosynthetic performance of Fucus in all seasons. In contrast to the expectation that warmer winter conditions might be beneficial, elevated temperature conditions and sub-optimal low winter light conditions decreased photophysiological performance of Fucus. In summer, western Baltic Sea Fucus already lives close to its upper thermal tolerance limit and future warming of the Baltic Sea during summer may probably become deleterious for this species. However, our results indicate that over most of the year a combination of future ocean warming and increased pCO2 will have slightly positive effects for Fucus photophysiological performance.

Seasonal variability, long-term distribution (2001\u20132014), and risk assessment of polar organic micropollutants in the Baltic Sea

From 2001 to 2014, 13 surveys were conducted in the Baltic Sea, to determine its pollution of 50 micropollutants. The investigations focused mostly on the German western Baltic Sea; in 2008, one survey covered the entire Baltic Sea. Various groups of herbicides (such as triazines, phenoxyacetic acid, phenylurea), perfluoroalkyl substances, pharmaceuticals, and industrial products were analyzed during these surveys. The highest concentrations (median 1 to 4 ng/L) were observed for atrazine, simazine, chloridazone, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, benzotriazole, primidone, and carbamazepine. Most micropollutants exhibited a relatively homogenous spatial distribution, though some herbicides show elevated concentrations in certain regions (e.g., Odra estuary), indicating a riverine input. The data set was analyzed, both for seasonal influences and long-time trends. Some herbicides exhibited higher concentrations during summertime. Both upward- and downward-directed time trends could be identified for some herbicides and perfluorinated compounds. For most of the detected compounds, a low-risk quotient was calculated. Only the occurrence of carbendazim could potentially pose a higher risk to the Baltic Sea.

Synergistic Effects of Rooted Aquatic Vegetation and Drift Wrack on Ecosystem Multifunctionality

Ecosystem multifunctionality is an increasingly popular concept used to approximate multifaceted ecosystem functioning, which in turn may help advance ecosystem-based management. However, while experimental studies have shown a positive effect of diversity on multifunctionality, observational studies from natural systems—particularly aquatic—are scarce. Here, we tested the relative importance of species richness and cover of rooted aquatic vegetation, as well as cover of the loose-lying form of the macroalgae bladderwrack (Fucus vesiculosus), for ecosystem multifunctionality in shallow bays along the western Baltic Sea coast. We estimated multifunctionality based on four indicators of functions that support ecosystem services: recruitment of large predatory fish, grazer biomass, inverted ‘nuisance’ algal biomass, and water clarity. Piecewise path analysis showed that multifunctionality was driven by high cover of rooted aquatic vegetation and bladderwrack, particularly when the two co-occurred. This synergistic effect was nearly three times as strong as a negative effect of land-derived nitrogen loading. Species richness of aquatic vegetation indirectly benefitted multifunctionality by increasing vegetation cover. Meanwhile, high bladderwrack cover tended to decrease vegetation species richness, indicating that bladderwrack has both positive and negative effects on multifunctionality. We conclude that managing for dense and diverse vegetation assemblages may mitigate effects of anthropogenic pressures (for example, eutrophication) and support healthy coastal ecosystems that provide a range of benefits. To balance the exploitation of coastal ecosystems and maintain their multiple processes and services, management therefore needs to go beyond estimation of vegetation cover and consider the diversity and functional types of aquatic vegetation.

Vegetative aquaculture of Fucus in the Baltic Sea\u2014obtaining low-fertility biomass from attached or unattached populations?

An experimental farm has been installed in the Kiel Fjord, western Baltic Sea, aiming at the development of a sustainable production process for Fucus species (Fucus vesiculosus, Fucus serratus). The envisaged cultivation method includes the unattached rearing of thalli in baskets deployed in the sea and their vegetative reproduction. Fertility (i.e., receptacle formation) is expected to be problematic for this approach, because receptacles are terminated in growth and degrade after gamete release. In culture experiments, natural fertility led to only minimal overall growth in F. vesiculosus and even weight loss in F. serratus. Therefore, we tested if long-term unattached cultivation of formerly attached thalli leads to a lowering of fertility by an acclimatization process. However, fertility after 1 and 2 years of unattached cultivation was statistically equal and still comparable to the high fertility of attached populations. Furthermore, we tested if the only known naturally unattached population in the western Baltic Sea near Glücksburg, which remains largely infertile in the wild, keeps its low fertility if put under culture conditions. During an experimental 1-year cultivation, thalli from this population remained almost entirely vegetative (2.0 ± 3.1% fertile apices). Hence, the Glücksburg population is a promising source of aquacultural seedling biomass. Yet, further tests are necessary to check, if the fertility remains low over several years of cultivation. If unattached populations are used as source for commercial cultures, the collection of seedling material should always be accompanied by strong measures to ensure the continued integrity of these valuable habitats.

Distribution and bioavailability of mercury in the surface sediments of the Baltic Sea

The study aimed to determine the level of mercury (Hg) and its labile and stable forms in the surface sediments of the Baltic Sea. The work considers the impact of current and historical sources of Hg on sediment pollution, together with the influence of different environmental parameters, including water inflows from the North Sea. Surface sediments (top 5 cm) were collected in 2016–2017 at 91 stations located in different areas of the Baltic Sea, including Belt Sea, Arkona Basin, Bornholm Basin, Gdańsk Basin, West Gotland Basin, East Gotland Basin, and the Bothnian Sea. Besides, the particulate matter suspended in the surface and near-bottom water was also collected. The analysis of total Hg concentration and individual Hg forms in collected samples was carried out using a 5-step thermodesorption method. This method allows for the identification of three labile and thus biologically available, fractions of Hg, which are mercury halides, organic Hg, mercury oxide and sulphate. Two stable fractions, mercury sulphide and residual Hg, were also determined. The highest Hg concentrations, reaching 341 ng g−1, were measured in the highly industrialised Kiel Bay, which was additionally a munition dumping site during and after World War II. High Hg level, ranging from 228 to 255 ng g−1, was also recorded in the surface sediments of the Arkona Basin, which was a result of the cumulative effect of several factors, such as deposition of Hg-rich riverine matter, favourable hydrodynamic conditions and military activities in the past. The relatively elevated Hg concentrations, varying from 60 to 264 ng g−1, were found in the Gdańsk Basin, a region under strong anthropopressure and dominated by soft sediments. The sum of labile Hg in sediments was high and averaged 67% (with the domination of organic Hg compounds), which means that a large part of Hg can be released to the water column. It was found that the water inflows from the North Sea intensify the remobilisation of Hg and its transformation into bioavailable labile forms. As a consequence, the load of Hg introduced into the trophic chain can increase. Despite the significant reduction of Hg emission into the Baltic in the last decades, surface sediments can be an important secondary Hg source in the marine ecosystem. This is especially dangerous in the case of the western Baltic Sea.

Evaluation of PNT Error Limits Using Real World Close Encounters from AIS Data

Collision avoidance is one of the main tasks on board ships to ensure safety at sea. To comply with this requirement, the direct ship environment, which is often modelled as the ship’s domain, has to be kept free of other vessels and objects. This paper addresses the question to which extent inaccuracies in position (P), navigation (N), and timing (T) data impact the reliability of collision avoidance. Employing a simplified model of the ship domain, the determined error bounds are used to derive requirements for ship-side PNT data provision. For this purpose, vessel traffic data obtained in the western Baltic Sea based on the automatic identification system (AIS) is analysed to extract all close encounters between ships considered as real-world traffic situations with a potential risk of collision. This study assumes that in these situations, erroneous data can lead to an incorrect assessment of the situation with regard to existing collision risks. The size of the error determines whether collisions are detected, spatially incorrectly assigned, or not detected. Therefore, the non-recognition of collision risks ultimately determines the limits of tolerable errors in the PNT data. The results indicate that under certain conditions, the probability of non-recognition of existing collision risks can reach non-negligible values, e.g., more than 1%, even though position accuracies are better than 10 m.

Reduced Reproductive Success of Western Baltic Herring (Clupea harengus) as a Response to Warming Winters

Shallow estuaries, bays, and lagoons are generally considered hot spots of ocean productivity that often adjust rapidly to seasonal variations in atmospheric temperatures. During spring when biological reproductive processes begin in the temperate zones, regional climate variability can be immense and uncovering a non-linear biological response, such as fish recruitment to changing temperature regimes might be challenging. Using herring as a paradigm for a response of coastal spring productivity to regional climate drivers, we demonstrated how the annual timing of spawning periods can significantly affect the reproductive success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the western Baltic Sea. An investigation of spawning phenology in consecutive years indicated a temperature threshold range of 3.5–4.5°C triggering initial spawning in the coastal zone. Based on this finding, we analyzed the timing of larval hatching peaks, larval survival and recruitment to the adult population relative to multi-decadal time-series of seasonal sea-surface temperatures. The results revealed that the late seasonal onset of cold periods the corresponding elongation of the period where larvae hatch from the eggs and early larval hatching peaks significantly reduced larval production in a coastal nursery area and finally lead to a reduced abundance of juveniles in the entire distribution area. Using a combination of field research and time series analysis, we presented precedence for shifting regional winter regimes providing a present-day stressor to reproductive capacity of a central component of the coastal food web.

Microplastic abundance in beach sediments of the Kiel Fjord, Western Baltic Sea

We assessed the abundance of microplastics (0.2–5 mm) in drift line sediments from three sites in Kiel Fjord, Western Baltic Sea. The first site is intensively used by beach visitors, the second is in close proximity to a sewage plant and the third is polluted with large-sized plastic litter. Samples were split into three grain size classes (0.2–0.5, 0.5–1, 1–5 mm), washed with calcium chloride solution, and filtered at 0.2 mm. Filters were then visually inspected, and a total of 180 fragments was classified as microplastics, of which 39% were analyzed using Raman spectroscopy. At the site that is close to a sewage plant as well as at the site with intense beach use, 1.8 and 4.5 particles (fibers plus fragments) per kg of dry sediment were found, respectively, while particle abundances reached 30.2 per kg of dry sediment at the site with high litter loads. Our data suggest that the fragmentation of large plastic debris at site seems to be a relevant source for microplastics in Western Baltic Sea beach sediments.