Western Balkan Countries Research Articles

Societal Trust Related to COVID-19 Vaccination: Evidence from Western Balkans

The lower rates of COVID-19 vaccination in Western Balkans countries could be partially explained by societal distrust of its citizens, jeopardizing the sustainability of COVID-19 vaccination programs. The aim of the study was to determine the level and predictors of societal trust in five countries of the region. Using an online questionnaire, data were obtained from 1157 respondents from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The instrument included a socio-demographic questionnaire, a measure of vaccination behavior, and a scale measuring societal trust. Being a significant determinant of the COVID-19 vaccination behavior in all countries, societal trust considerably varied from country to country (F (24, 4002) = 7.574, p < 0.001). It was highest in North Macedonia (Mean = 3.74, SD = 0.99), and lowest in Albania (Mean = 3.21, SD = 1.03). Younger, female, less religious, and higher educated tended to have more pronounced societal trust in Serbia. In North Macedonia, younger age and lower health literacy predicted societal trust, while in Bosnia and Herzegovina, educational level was the single predictor. In Montenegro and Albania, higher societal trust was significantly predicted by lower health literacy only. The results provide evidence that the determinants of societal trust in Western Balkans vary across countries, indicating the need for different approaches in communication campaigns.

Cognitive Remittances and the Reintegration ‘Hump’: Changing Self-Perceptions and Positionality among Roma Returnees in Albania and Kosovo

Using the innovative concept of cognitive remittances, this paper looks at the transformation of the self-perception and positionality of Roma returned asylum-seekers. The empirical evidence, in the form of interview narratives and focus group quotes, is drawn from two research projects based in Albania and Kosovo and the wider Western Balkan region. The findings show that the migration and asylum-seeking experience, in Germany and other EU countries, provide the Roma with a new lens through which they can view and appreciate their historical and contemporary belongingness in the Western Balkan countries. Having been exposed to different lifestyles and values, they face real challenges upon return, where they have to confront anew very low living standards, socio-economic marginalisation and unfavourable positioning in the social hierarchy. We label this the reintegration ‘hump’. A cognitive shift occurs and their self-perception changes, including a greater sensitivity to experiences of discrimination. Reintegration is both hampered and potentially enabled by their enhanced political literacy and agency.

The Efficiency of Educational and Healthcare public expenditures in Kosovo: A Data Envelopment Analysis Technique

This paper evaluates the performance and efficiency of the government public expenditure in the education and health sectors in the emerging economies context, specifically comparing Kosovo with the Western Balkan countries. The indicators of education and health sectors were used to assess a Public Sector Performance Index (PSP) and the Public Sector Efficiency Index (PSE). Also, this study uses the nonparametric method DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) to evaluate the input-output oriented efficiency. This study finds that education score of performance ranges from 0.43 which is the minimum to 1.48 which is the maximum. And in the health sector, the PSP score ranges from 0.81 which is the minimum to 1.09 which is the maximum. Kosovo ranks 41st out of 42 countries in this sample, in terms of the education sector, with a performance index of 0.67, which is 37% below the average of 1.00, whilst in terms of the health sector it ranks 39th out of 42 countries in the sample.In the analysis of the input output efficiency model in the education sector, the results show that the countries included in the study achieve an efficiency of 76.69 and it means that countries can reduce relevant public expenditure by 23.3% and maintain the same level of PSP in the education sector. Kosovo is assessed in this analysis as an inefficient country. The value of the input-oriented index is 40.24, which means that Kosovo can achieve the same level of performance in the education sector by using 60% less relative public expenditure, whilst, on the other hand, the input-output efficiency results for the health sector show that the efficiency score for countries is 47.64, and denotes that the countries in the sample could reduce 53% in health expenditure to achieve the same performance in the health sector. Thus, Kosovo compared to other countries in the sample is within the limits of production opportunities and uses public expenditure on health and education inefficiently.

The EU Accession Process, Chinese Finance and Rising Corruption in Western Balkan Stabilitocracies: Serbia and Montenegro

As front runners in the EU accession process, Serbia and Montenegro have failed to control corruption yet managed to advance along the path to EU integration. Although they have stronger state capacity compared to other Western Balkan countries, the two have recently reverted to previous poor governance practices after initial headway meeting EU good governance conditions. An in-depth analysis of the two countries explains this paradox as the result of the combination of the EU accession process and increasing Chinese finance. While the EU’s stability-oriented strategy helped to consolidate these authoritarian regimes, Chinese funding policies have further strengthened patronage networks, fuelling corruption in the EU’s ‘stabilitocracies’.

Are Inflation Rates Stationary in the Western Balkan Countries? Evidence from Unit Root Tests

Monitoring of inflation rate dynamics is one of the most important tasks in order to identify the current economic conditions of the observed countries. The aim of this study is to examine the unit root properties of inflation in the Western Balkan countries. It also investigates the existence of structural breaks and nonlinearity. The time horizon encompasses the period 2006Q1-2020Q2. The results suggest that the inflation in Albania and Montenegro manifests a nonstationary process and structural breaks. The macroeconomic shocks will have more persistent effects on the inflation rate if it is characterized by nonstationarity. The inflation rates of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are characterized by nonlinear mean reverting behaviour. This implies less costly implementation of the proclaimed monetary strategy.

Protecting the Borders from the Outside

Abstract Regulation (EU) 2016/1624 enables Frontex to launch operations in the territory of third countries. Accordingly, status agreements between the EU and the Western Balkan countries as well as Moldova have been concluded. This article provides an in-depth analysis of these instruments. As this article will demonstrate, the conclusion of the status agreements constitutes an improvement, in comparison with the instruments of cooperation already in place. Yet, their implementation could lead to human rights violations. The status agreements provide that the team members sent by Frontex act under the instructions of the host state. Consequently, the third state would incur the prime responsibility for human rights violations committed by these border guards. This transfer of authority has not been stemmed from a transfer of jurisdiction over acts committed by the members of the team: rather they are entitled to immunity for all acts committed during their official functions.

EDUCATIONAL MODELS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL CONTRACT FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBLE TAXATION

The purpose of the manuscript is limited exclusively to assessing the role and legal nature of the international contract for the avoidance of double taxation. The subject of the analysis of this paper is the avoidance of the phenomenon of double international taxation through the conclusion and ratification of specific international contracts. These contracts, especially for countries claiming EU membership, should be established through the harmonization of tax legislation and recognized practices of EU member states. Based on the reports of the Western Balkan countries, there is an intensification of energies and strategies for EU membership. Kosovo and other countries in this area have signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA). This fact has increased the turnover of people and businesses in Western Europe. Challenges in the future are the problems in the field of numerous techniques and methodologies related to the drafting of contracts because countries outside the EU are applying non-unified standards regarding the avoidance of double taxation. Nowadays, this topic has aroused interest in the tax system of Kosovo, having in consideration its commitment to full membership in international integration.

A Framework for Short- vs. Long-Term Risk Indicators for Outsourcing Potential for Enterprises Participating in Global Value Chains: Evidence from Western Balkan Countries

This paper aims to present a benchmarking framework for short- and long-term risk of enterprises in emerging markets that seek integration in global value chains. The benchmark instrument aims in particular to assess short- and long-term risk based on accounting data and estimations of key financial ratios for enterprises located in the Western Balkan region and operating in the materials, industrials, and customer-discretionary industries. In total, the paper considers 310 enterprises. Given the geographical proximity of the region, the benchmark instrument for short- and long-term risks serves to assess the outsourcing potential these enterprises have toward foreign enterprises dominating larger markets such as the European value chain. The framework is applicable to a large-scale annual data series collected on subindustry level in order to obtain a more granular analysis of a particular industry and its respective value chain. The benchmarking instrument indicates that those subindustries performing better both at short- and long-term risk display a higher outsourcing potential and more opportunities for integration in global value chains.

Firm Coping Strategies during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Western Balkan Countries

In this paper we analyze pre-pandemic firm characteristics that are significantly associated with different coping strategies used by firms in order to deal with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data we use come from the sixth round of the World Bank Business Environment Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS VI) for a sample of five Western Balkan countries: Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, combined with the COVID-19 Follow up Enterprise Surveys conducted by the Enterprise Analysis unit of the World Bank Group. We find that pre-pandemic firm characteristics are significantly associated with certain positive outcomes such as laying off less employees, filing less for insolvency or bankruptcy and adjusting business operations to the newly created circumstances. Furthermore, we find small firms to be particularly at a disadvantage when coping with the pandemic. The results of this paper contribute to the growing literature on the economic impact of COVID-19 and guides policy making in order to tailor government support to those segments of the firm population that stand to benefit the most from such aid. Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; firm performance; Western Balkans; SMEs; firm liquidity; financial constraints DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/14-18-03 Publication date: September 30 th 2022

Stabilisation and association agreement between the Western Balkan countries and the European Union

The European Union (EU) represents a certain partnership and alliance between states and countries. It is not governed as the United States of America, nor intergoverned as the United Nations. Member States of the EU are sovereign countries united to become privileged and globally successful. Every enlargement of the Union is significant, but the fifth enlargement has been recognised, so far, as the most significant, showing the unification of Eastern and Western Europe. However, the most significant enlargement is yet to come with the Western Balkan countries becoming Member States of the EU (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia), considering the political and economic situation of the region. The European Commission has proposed the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) for South East Europe, as the most significant frame for the EU to ensure relations with the Western Balkan countries and to direct its overall enlargement policy to this part of Europe. Associations of the Western Balkans are usually negative, referring to weak economic development, wars and political instability, which have led to the pre-accession strategy for the EU membership known as the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA). The aim of this paper is to present the progress of the Western Balkan countries towards the EU membership, their current state, and the problems they face on that path and to explain the SAP and the SAA.

The regional context of intelligence services in the parliamentary system: A comparative study of the Western Balkans

ABSTRACT In the Balkan context, the treatment of intelligence services in scientific terms has been addressed in the second half of the 1990s by several international authors, while from the aspect of the functioning of these agencies themselves, it has been a taboo topic due to the specifics of the systems of the past. In the democratic system, where the legal norm has established rules of operation and control, many scholars treat this matter in different dimensions within the academic framework and within the framework of national security policies. This research refers to the regional context of intelligence services in the parliamentary system, trying to analyze by comparative method some of the Western Balkan countries. The purpose of this study is to provide important legal elements, systematizing knowledge in aspects specifically related to the competencies, monitoring, control and oversight of state intelligence agencies in the democratic system of operation in the regional context in the Western Balkans.

Renewable hydrogen production perspective in Serbia via biogas generated from food processing wastewaters

Renewable hydrogen produced from the waste streams can be a good option for clean energy production and reduction of greenhouse gases emissions into the environment. In this study, the potential for hydrogen production from the food industry wastewaters in Serbia and the further use of the calculated potentials were investigated. This was performed through two technological routes including the biogas steam reforming process and the electrolysis after biogas cogeneration process. Furthermore, the environmental impacts of these processes were considered. The total hydrogen potential via the biogas steam reforming process was 4094.70 tons, while the total hydrogen potential via the electrolysis after biogas cogeneration process was 1751.08 tons. These potentials can be used for direct energy production in the food industry, electricity production for the national electric grid, transport, injection in the natural gas grid and/or as a resource in the chemical industry. Regarding the Greenhouse Gas emissions reduction, hydrogen production by both routes represents a promising pathway. The results of this work can serve the decision makers to plan hydrogen application in the energy sector of the Republic of Serbia defining supporting measures for its application. Also, the presented analysis is enforceable in the Western Balkan countries for the application of hydrogen as an energy source in their systems for energy production, transport and economy.

Serbia and France: the special relationship?

What is the relationship between the European Union and the Western Balkans, and Serbia in particular? The author reviews the process of accession of the Western Balkan countries (with a focus on Serbia) to the European Union, but also the geopolitical stakes in this region, which is sought after by external actors such as China and Russia, and which the European Union should pay more attention in order to strengthen its strategic autonomy. The EU needs to take a bold stance in the Western Balkans and France wants to be at the forefront. European actors must show future member states that the door to full membership is indeed open, but only if they can truly embrace democratic values. In his analysis, the author writes about Serbia's path towards EU integration through an increasingly close relationship with France. The current situation in Serbia is rather complex. Will it continue with its "hamster in the wheel" approach, where the result is always expected to be the same, or should Serbia adopt a different approach for the future? As concerns Serbia, France will certainly continue to insist on economic cooperation and the improvement of French investments in Serbia. They will also take a stand against damaging foreign influences which they believe could potentially destabilize the region and are fundamentally at cross purposes with the policy favored by the European Union.

Challenges for Western Balkan Countries Regional Integration: the Case of North Macedonia

This paper aims to elaborate on the possibilities that increased regional integration initiatives can have in boosting mutual trade among the countries in the Western Balkans region, such as: creating a Regional Economic Area by 2023; the creation of a Common Regional Market based on EU rules in the period 2021-2024 and the initiative “Open Balkan” created between North Macedonia, Serbia, and Albania for enabling free movement of goods and free movement of workers. For our research, the gravity model of trade for North Macedonia covering the period 2005-2020 is applied. The influence of bilateral and regional trade agreements on the country’s trade is analyzed. The results have shown that for North Macedonia, CEFTA-2006 membership has higher significance for increasing trade when compared to the agreement signed with the EU and to the other bilateral free trade agreements signed with EFTA, Turkey, and Ukraine. This paper point out that deepening trade integration through different regional initiatives could have a positive influence on increasing mutual trade.

The EU Integration Process of the Western Balkans in the Aftermath of 2015’s Refugee Crisis

The worst contemporary refugee crisis that occurred during the summer of 2015 challenged the basic values of the European Union. There had never been a time when the need for a consistent approach, both from the individual Member States and the EU as a whole, was more urgent. The Union’s response during 2015’s refugee crisis was unreliable, fragmented, and it largely affected the Western Balkan countries that are now aspiring to become EU Member States. This paper analyses how the EU’s response to the refugee crisis has affected and still affects the countries in the Western Balkans, which are all in different stages of their European integration. The refugee crisis created many challenges for the Western Balkan countries which are all weak democracies and which have unstable institutions. This paper also analyses the numerous domestic costs connected to these countries when faced with the refugee crisis. Finally, the paper argues that, although largely harmonised with the EU acquis, the legislative and institutional frameworks for migration management in Western Balkan countries need further adjustment.

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investments on Trade Balance in Southeast Europe during the Period 2000–2018

This research analyzed the effect Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) have on the levels of exports, imports, and trade balance of six Western Balkan countries (Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Hercegovina, and Serbia). The impact of FDI was measured using panel data for 2000–2018 for the analyzed countries, estimated using a fixed effects specification. We found that an increase in FDI as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had a positive and significant effect on the level of exports and imports expressed as a percentage of GDP, although the effect on imports was greater. Furthermore, when we assessed the impact of FDI on the trade balance of the analyzed countries, we found that FDI had a significant negative effect on the level of the trade balance expressed as a percentage of GDP. These results can be attributed, among other reasons, to the fact that FDI causes an increase in aggregate demand in the short run, which, in developing and middle-income countries, cannot be covered by the domestic market; thus, the demand for imports increases more rapidly than the capacity to increase exports.

External Debt and Economic Growth in the Western Balkan Countries, with special focus to Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia in the course of the pandemic COVID-19

The objective of this study is to offer an empirical valuation of the relationship between external debt and economic growth in the Western Balkan (WB) countries, focusing specifically on the countries like Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia, combined with other WB countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia. The empirical model provides the impact of external debt and other control variables like total investments, population growth, inflation, literacy ratio, trade openness on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries, using a panel level data for 6 Western Balkan countries, covering a yearly time span: 2000-2022. Different estimation methodologies like Fixed Effects with Driscol and Kraay standard errors, robust LSDV and GMM estimates, were employed for the purpose of the research. The findings of the research confirm growth-deteriorating effect of external debt for target group of countries like Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia and growth enhancement effect of external debt for the second group of countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia. Other control variables like total investments, trade openness, inflation and population growth are found as crucial factors on explaining growth performance of the WB countries. In addition, COVID-19 interacted with external debt and financial crisis interacted with external debt, appears as crucial factors explaining growth pattern of the WB countries.

A skill‐specific dynamic labour supply and labour demand framework: A scenario analysis for the Western Balkan countries to 2030

AbstractThis paper pursues a multiple scenario analysis until 2030 to identify past and potential future labour supply and demand dynamics of four different skill groups in the six Western Balkan (WB6) countries. Simulation results of the baseline scenario show that skill shortages and surpluses would coexist: In all WB6 countries, the low educated would experience labour shortages within or shortly after the projection period while in some WB6 countries there is evidence of growing excess labour among Med‐VETs, Med‐GENs and the highly educated. Additional scenarios point to important country‐specific policy options that can help to mitigate these projected labour market imbalances.

BATI BALKANLAR'DA SOSYAL İKLIM (2018-2021)

This work analyzes the results of the World Social Capital Monitor, which is a worldwide open access Social Capital Survey for citizens to better understand the social climate in their countries, for the Western Balkans; namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia between 2018 and 2021. The World Social Capital Monitor was developed by the Basel Institute of Commons and Economics (http://commons.ch/) for the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development partnership. Within the UN framework, it is being used for promoting Sustainable Development Goals. It has been selected for the SDGs: 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), 10 (Reduced Inequalities), 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions). While all 17 SDGs depend on social goods, assessing and enhancing social goods is one of the few approaches to addressing all the 17 SDGs in one. The World Social Capital Monitor consists of open access online survey (http://commons.ch/assessing-social-capital/) assessing the social capital of countries around the globe (currently conducted in 50 languages in 300 cities by 2021). Timelines and comments, for eight social goods (climate, trust, measures, taxes, local investment, helpfulness, friendliness, hospitality) provided by the survey, have been published annually since 2017 for each country affiliated with the World Social Capital Monitor. This work, comparing and contrasting the results of the survey among the Western Balkan Countries between 2018 and 2021, will provide a better understanding of the social climate in the region, involving the impact of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is considered the greatest health crisis in the past one hundred years.

How do prices of manufactured cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco affect demand for these products? Tobacco price elasticity in Western Balkan countries

How do prices of manufactured cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco affect demand for these products? Tobacco price elasticity in Western Balkan countries