Westerly Wind Bursts Research Articles

The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

The build-up of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide necessary conditions for interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events to contribute to decadal timescale transitions of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This can be viewed as a corollary to subseasonal westerly wind burst events contributing to El Niño interannual timescale transitions. A long pre-industrial control run with CESM1 is analyzed to show that there is a greater chance of ENSO activity to contribute to an IPO transition when off-equatorial western Pacific Ocean heat content reaches either a maximum (for El Niño to contribute to a transition to positive IPO) or minimum (for La Niña to contribute to a transition to negative IPO) as seen in observations. If above a necessary ocean heat content threshold, the convergence associated with westerly anomaly near-equatorial surface winds associated with El Niño activity can draw that heat content equatorward to sustain anomalously warm western and central Pacific SSTs. These are associated with positive precipitation and convective heating anomalies, a Gill-type response and wind stress curl anomalies that continue to feed warm water into the near-equatorial western Pacific. These conditions then sustain the decadal-timescale transition to positive IPO (with the opposite sign for transition to negative IPO). Associated central equatorial Pacific convective heating anomalies produce SLP and wind stress anomalies in the North and South Pacific that can excite westward-propagating off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves to contribute to the western Pacific thermocline depth and consequent heat content anomalies.

Intensification of Westerly Wind Bursts Caused by the Coupling of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation to SST During El Niño Onset and Development

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) plays an important role in El Niño dynamics in connection with westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur in the equatorial Pacific; however, our understanding of the relationship between these climate phenomena remains incomplete. Here, we use a Lagrangian Atmospheric Model (LAM) to examine the response of the MJO and resulting WWBs to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies similar to those observed during the onset and development of El Niño. We find that when a localized SST anomaly (≤1°C) is imposed in the western‐central equatorial Pacific between December and April (mimicking El Niño onset), the MJO convective envelope shifts from the southern hemisphere toward the equator. When an SST anomaly (≤1.5°C) is imposed in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific between May and November (mimicking El Niño development), the MJO weakens in the northwestern Pacific, but strengthens in the central equatorial Pacific. In both experiments, the ensuing changes enhance MJO activity along the equator, facilitating WWBs.

Linking the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones and westerly wind bursts as part of El Niño development

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur over the western and central equatorial Pacific are believed to play an important role in ENSO dynamics; however, the mechanisms of WWB generation are still debated. In this study we investigate a link between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and WWBs that involves tropical cyclones (TCs) generated within the MJO sufficiently close to the equator. Using an atmospheric reanalysis and WWB composites, we first isolate WWBs that occur (1) between December and April and (2) between May and November, corresponding to the onset and development stages of El Nino. We find that during the onset stage, a warm background sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly develops over the central-western equatorial Pacific with anomalous westerly winds to its west, which draws the MJO convective activity in the southern hemisphere closer to the equator. As a result, westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO together with tropical cyclones embedded in the MJO induce strong WWBs (during neutral conditions the MJO usually takes a more southerly route and cannot induce strong bursts). Subsequently, during the development stage of El Nino, there develops an anomalous warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, also with corresponding westerly winds, which steers the MJO path, now in the northern hemisphere, toward the equator, strengthening the MJO signal over the central equatorial Pacific. Consequently, tropical cyclones modulated by the MJO move closer to the equator and farther east, facilitating WWBs. Thus, MJO events with embedded tropical cyclones are crucial for the generation process of WWBs during the onset and development of El Nino.

The Niño-3.4 Prediction Skill of Empirically Adjusted Wind Power

AbstractWind power, defined as the energy received by the ocean from wind, has been identified as a potentially viable precursor of ENSO. The correlation between tropical Pacific wind power anomalies and eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies can be enhanced over a range of lead times by applying an empirical adjusted framework that accounts for both the underlying climatological state upon which a wind power perturbation acts and the directionality of wind anomalies. Linear regression is used to assess the seasonal prediction skill of adjusted wind power in comparison to unadjusted, as well as the conventional ENSO predictors wind stress and warm water volume. The forecast skill of each regression model is evaluated in a 1800-yr preindustrial climate simulation (CESM-LENS), as well as 23 years of observations. The simulation results show that each predictor’s effectiveness varies considerably with the sample record, providing a measure of the uncertainty involved in evaluating prediction skill based on the short observational record. The influence of climatological biases is however a demonstrable concern for results from the simulated climate system. Despite the short record, the observational analysis indicates that adjusted wind power skill is comparable to the conventional dynamical predictors and notably is significantly more predictable than unadjusted wind power when initialized in the summer. Moreover, the adjusted framework results in a reduction of error when evaluating wind power associated with wind bursts, reinforcing previous findings that the adjusted framework is particularly useful for capturing the ENSO response to westerly wind bursts.

Generation of westerly wind bursts by forcing outside the tropics

The westerly wind burst (WWB) is an important triggering mechanism of El Niño and typically occurs in the western Pacific Ocean. The Fourier spectrum of the wind field over the western tropical Pacific is characterised by a large variety of peaks distributed from intra-seasonal to decadal time scales, suggesting that WWBs could be a result of nonlinear interactions on these time scales. Using a combination of observations and simulations with 15 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we demonstrate that the main drivers initiating WWBs are quantifiable physical processes rather than atmospheric stochastic signals. In this study, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) from the Holo-Hilbert spectral analysis (HHSA) is used to decompose daily zonal winds over the western equatorial Pacific into seasonal, interannual and decadal components. The seasonal element, with prominent spectral peaks of less than 12 months, is not ENSO related, and we find it to be strongly associated with the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and cross-equatorial flow (CEF) over the Australian monsoon region. The CEF is directly related to the intensity of the Australian subtropical ridge (STR-I). Both the EAM and CEF are essential sources of these high-frequency winds over the western Pacific. In contrast, the interannual wind component is closely related to El Niño occurrences and usually peaks approximately two months prior to a typical El Niño event. Finally, the decadal element merely represents a long-term trend and thus has little to no relation to El Niño. We identified EAM- and CEF-induced westerly wind anomalies in December–January–February (DJF) and September–October–November (SON). However, these anomalies fade in March–April–May (MAM), potentially undermining the usual absence of WWBs in the boreal spring. Similar results are found in CMIP6 historical scenario data.

A New Equatorial Oscillation Index for Better Describing ENSO and Westerly Wind Bursts

An Equatorial Oscillation Index (EOI) is defined, based on the zonal gradient of sea surface pressure between the western Pacific and eastern Pacific along the equator, to describe the distribution of wind and pressure within the equatorial Pacific. The EOI has a stronger correlation with the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), as well as with westerly/easterly wind bursts (WWBs/EWBs), showing a superiority over the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In general, the EOI is consistent with the SOI, both of which reflect large-scale sea level pressure oscillations. However, when there are inconsistent SSTAs between the equator and subtropical regions, the SOI may contrast with the EOI due to the reverse changes in sea level pressure in the subtropical regions. As a result, the SOI fails to match the pattern of El Niño, while the EOI can still match it well. Hence, the EOI can better describe the variability of the Niño3.4 SSTA and WWBs/EWBs. The correlation between the SOI and Niño3.4 SSTA falls to its minimum in May, due to the large one-month changes of sea level pressure from April to May in the subtropical southern Pacific, which may be related to the spring predictability barrier (SPB). The newly defined EOI may be helpful for monitoring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicting ENSO.

The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Niño in Climate Models

AbstractThe mechanisms and predictability of extreme El Niño events, as in 1982, 1997, and 2015, remain unclear. Here we investigate the relative roles of the ocean initial heat recharge and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur during different seasons in the generation of extreme El Niño events in a climate model (CESM1.2). Several sets of 100‐member ensemble simulations, along with CMIP5 and atmospheric reanalysis data, are used. We show that while the probability of extreme El Niño increases progressively with ocean heat recharge, tropical conditions by year‐end are least predictable (the largest ensemble spread) for moderately‐to‐strongly recharged ocean initial states, rather than neutrally charged. Even after strong early‐year WWBs and recharged ocean the occurrence of extreme El Niño has limited predictability. While the early‐year WWBs are still important for strong El Niño, it is to a lesser extent than suggested previously, as mid‐year WWBs play a critical role in El Niño progression.

Effects of Semistochastic Westerly Wind Bursts on ENSO Predictability

AbstractWesterly wind bursts (WWBs) occurring over the tropical Pacific play an important role on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Currently, climate models have significant biases in their representation of WWBs, which may limit their ability to predict ENSO. In this study, we explore the possibility of improving ENSO prediction by introducing a semistochastic WWBs parameterization scheme into the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Three ensemble hindcasts, namely, the control run with the original CESM, the WWB run with parameterized WWBs, and the Non_WWB run with built‐in WWBs removed, are conducted for the period 1982–2016. We find that CESM with parameterized WWBs enables better ENSO prediction, especially for both amplitude and spatial distribution of eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño events. This improvement is related to more realistic representation of WWBs which leads to better prediction of surface wind stress anomalies and thermocline depth anomalies.

Intraseasonal modulation of Wyrtki jet in the eastern Indian Ocean by equatorial waves during spring 2013

A strong spring Wyrtki jet (WJ) presents in May 2013 in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The entire buildup and retreat processes of the spring WJ were well captured by two adjacent Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers mounted on the mooring systems. The observed zonal jet behaved as one intraseasonal event with the significant features of abrupt emergence as well as slow disappearance. Further research illustrate that the pronounced surface westerly wind burst during late-April to mid-May, associated with the active phase of a robust eastward-propagating Madden-Julian oscillation in the tropical Indian Ocean, was the dominant reason for the rapid acceleration of surface WJ. In contrasting, the governing mechanism for the jet termination was equatorial wave dynamics rather than wind forcing. The decomposition analysis of equatorial waves and the corresponding changes in the ocean thermocline demonstrated that strong WJ was produced rapidly by the wind-generated oceanic downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave and was terminated subsequently by the westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave reflecting from eastern boundaries of the Indian Ocean.

Wind-forced equatorial wave dynamics of the Pacific Ocean during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 El Niño events

The equatorial wave dynamics of interannual sea level variations between 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 El Nino events are compared using the Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics Climate Ocean Model (LICOM) forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis Ⅰ wind stress and heat flux during 2000-2015. In addition, the LICOM can reproduce the interannual variability of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and sea level anomalies (SLA) along the equator over the Pacific Ocean in comparison with the Hadley center and altimetric data well. We extracted the equatorial wave coefficients of LICOM simulation to get the contribution to SLA by multiplying the meridional wave structure. During 2014/2015 El Nino event, upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves from the western boundary in April 2014 reach the eastern Pacific Ocean, which weakened SLA in the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, no upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves from the western boundary of the Pacific Ocean could reach the eastern boundary during the 2015/2016 El Nino event. Linear wave model results also demonstrate that upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves in both 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 from the western boundary can reach the eastern boundary. However, the contribution from stronger westerly anomalies forced downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves overwhelmed that from the upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves from the western boundary in 2015. Therefore, the western boundary reflection and weak westerly wind burst inhibited the growth of the 2014/2015 El Nino event. The disclosed equatorial wave dynamics are important to the simulation and prediction of ENSO events in future studies.

A Numerical Study on the Influences of Sumatra Topography and Synoptic Features on Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Indian Ocean

Abstract Spanning across the equator with a northwest–southeast orientation, the island of Sumatra can exert significant influences on low-level flow. Under northeasterly flow, in particular, lee vortices can form and some of them may subsequently develop into tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Indian Ocean (IO). Building upon the recent work of Fine et al., this study investigates the roles of the Sumatra topography and other common features on the formation of selected cases for analysis and numerical experiments. Four cases in northern IO were selected for analysis and two of them [Nisha (2008) and Ward 2009)] for simulation at a grid size of 4 km. Sensitivity tests without the Sumatra topography were also performed. Our results indicate that during the lee stage, most pre-TC vortices tend to be stronger with a clearer circulation when the topography is present. However, the island’s terrain is a helpful but not a deciding factor in TC formation. Specifically, the vortices in the no-terrain tests also reach TC status, but just at a later time. Some common ingredients contributing to a favorable environment for TC genesis are identified. They include northeasterly winds near northern Sumatra, westerly wind bursts along the equator, and migratory disturbances (TC remnants or Borneo vortices) to provide additional vorticity/moisture from the South China Sea. These factors also appear in most of the 22 vortices in northern IO during October–December in 2008 and 2009. For the sole case (Cleo) examined in southern IO, the deflection of equatorial westerlies into northwesterlies by Sumatra (on the windward side) is also helpful to TC formation.

A Study on Assimilation of CYGNSS Wind Speed Data for Tropical Convection during 2018 January MJO

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission was launched in December 2016. CYGNSS provides ocean surface wind speed retrieval along specular reflection tracks at an interval resolution of approximately 25 km. With a median revisit time of 2.8 h covering a ±35° latitude, CYGNSS can provide more frequent and accurate measurements of surface wind over the tropical oceans under heavy precipitation, especially within tropical cyclone cores and deep convection regions, than traditional scatterometers. In this study, CYGNSS v2.1 Level 2 wind speed data were assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system with hybrid 3- and 4-dimensional variational ensemble technology. Case studies were conducted to examine the impact of the CYGNSS data on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) Irving and a westerly wind burst (WWB) during the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event over the Indian Ocean in early January 2018. The results indicate a positive impact of the CYGNSS data on the wind field. However, the impact from the CYGNSS data decreases rapidly within 4 h after data assimilation. Also, the influence of CYGNSS data only on precipitation forecast is found to be limited. The assimilation of CYGNSS data was further explored with an additional experiment in which CYGNSS data was combined with Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) hourly precipitation and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) wind vector and were assimilated into the WRF model. A significant positive impact was found on the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts. The short-term forecast of wind and precipitation fields were also improved for both TC Irving and the WWB event when the combined satellite data was assimilated.

A Statistical Comparison of the Westerly Wind Bursts between the Positive and Negative Phases of the PDO

To understand the diversity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) during recent decades, characteristics of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) during positive and negative phases of the PDO were analyzed. It is shown that, during the ENSO developing period, the El Nino evolution may be affected by stronger or more frequent WWBs in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase. The sustained effects of atmospheric dynamics on the equatorial ocean can be indicated by the accumulated WWB strength, which contains most WWB characteristics, including the accumulated days, occurrence frequency, strength, and spatial range of WWBs. The synoptic/climate systems that are directly related to WWBs show a wider spatial distribution in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.

The unusual 2014–2016 El Niño events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments

The 2014–2016 El Nino events consist of a stalled El Nino event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Nino event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Nino events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Nino in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges (EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Nino events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Nino.

Observed Deep‐Reaching Signatures of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in the Ocean Circulation of the Western Tropical Pacific

AbstractProminent intraseasonal variability (ISV) of ocean currents was detected by two subsurface moorings deployed at 140°E, 2°N, and 4.7°N during 2014–2018 and shown to be largely induced by westerly wind bursts (WWBs) associated with passages of Madden‐Julian oscillations (MJOs). The North Equatorial Countercurrent between 60 and 200 m is enhanced (attenuated) by 6–8 cm/s prior (subsequent) to the WWB. Current anomalies below 300 m are as large as 2–3 cm/s, close in magnitude to the mean velocities of the North Equatorial Subsurface Current and North Subsurface Countercurrent. The ISV in the upper 600 m shows a vertical dipole structure at 2°N and vertically coherent anomalies at 4.7°N. Further analysis combining satellite data reveals local recirculation structures generated by wind‐forced Rossby waves. Ocean model experiments confirm the importance of the MJO's wind forcing in causing these subsurface ocean ISVs.

Anomalous warming of the western equatorial Indian Ocean in 2007: Role of ocean dynamics

In this study, observational data, together with the simulations from a high-resolution numerical ocean model, are used to identify the processes responsible for the anomalous warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Indian Ocean during late spring/early summer in 2007. Our analysis suggests that the SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) remained unusually warm owing to the combined influence of the wind induced and reflected Rossby waves in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Anomalous westerly wind burst in the equatorial Indian Ocean in early April generated an eastward propagating downwelling Kelvin wave, which got reflected from the eastern boundary as a downwelling Rossby wave and propagated to the WEIO. The easterlies appeared during the second fortnight of April generated another downwelling Rossby wave, which also propagated to the WEIO. Thus a couple of downwelling Rossby waves, reflected and direct wind induced, propagated to the WEIO, deepened the thermocline and prohibited cooling in the WEIO during the early months of summer monsoon season. This study demonstrates the importance of the equatorial winds and associated oceanic dynamics in modulating the SST variability in the WEIO.

A study of the effects of westerly wind bursts on ENSO based on CESM

Numerous works have indicated that westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have a significant contribution to the development of El Niño events. However, the simulation of WWBs commonly suffers from large biases in the current generation of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), limiting our ability to predict El Niño events. In this study, we introduce a WWBs parameterization scheme into the global coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) to improve the representation of WWBs and to study the impacts of WWBs on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics. It is found that CESM with the WWBs parameterization scheme can generate more realistic characteristics of WWBs, in particular their location and seasonal variation of occurrence. With the parameterized WWBs, the skewness of the Niño 3 index is increased, in better agreement with observation. Eastern Pacific El Niño and central Pacific El Niño events could be successfully reproduced in the model run with WWBs parameterization. Further diagnoses show that the enhanced horizontal advection in the central Pacific and vertical advection in the eastern Pacific, both of which are triggered by WWBs, are crucial factors responsible for the improvements in ENSO simulation. Clearly, WWBs have important effects on ENSO asymmetry and ENSO diversity.

Arnold Maps with Noise: Differentiability and Non-monotonicity of the Rotation Number

Arnold's standard circle maps are widely used to study the quasi-periodic route to chaos and other phenomena associated with nonlinear dynamics in the presence of two rationally unrelated periodicities. In particular, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a crucial component of climate variability on interannual time scales and it is dominated by the seasonal cycle, on the one hand, and an intrinsic oscillatory instability with a period of a few years, on the other. The role of meteorological phenomena on much shorter time scales, such as westerly wind bursts, has also been recognized and modeled as additive noise. We consider herein Arnold maps with additive, uniformly distributed noise. When the map's nonlinear term, scaled by the parameter $\epsilon$, is sufficiently small, i.e. $\epsilon < 1$, the map is known to be a diffeomorphism and the rotation number $\rho_{\omega}$ is a differentiable function of the driving frequency $\omega$. We concentrate on the rotation number's behavior as the nonlinearity becomes large, and show rigorously that $\rho _{\omega }$ is a differentiable function of $\omega $, even for $\epsilon \geq 1$, at every point at which the noise-perturbed map is mixing. We also provide a formula for the derivative of the rotation number. The reasoning relies on linear-response theory and a computer-aided proof. In the diffeomorphism case of $\epsilon <1$, the rotation number $\rho_{\omega }$ behaves monotonically with respect to $\omega $. We show, using again a computer-aided proof, that this is not the case when $\epsilon \geq 1$ and the map is not a diffeomorphism.

Nonlinear Zonal Propagation of Organized Convection in the Tropics

Abstract A wide range of the observed variability in the ITCZ is frequently explained in terms of equatorially trapped modes arising from Matsuno’s linear shallow-water model. Here, a series of zonally constant, meridionally symmetric aquachannel WRF simulations are used to study the propagation of tropical cloud clusters (CCs; patches of deep cloudiness and precipitation) in association with eastward-moving super cloud clusters (SCCs), also called convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs). Two independent but complementary methods are used: the first, from a local approach, involves a CC-tracking algorithm, while the second uses Lagrangian trajectories in a nonlocal framework. We show that the large-scale flow in low to midlevels advects the CCs either eastward or westward depending on model climatology, proximity to the CCKW axis, and latitude. Moreover, for most analyzed cases, sequences of CCs oscillate, describing qualitatively sinusoidal-like paths in longitude–time space, although with sharp transitions from westward to eastward motion due to westerly wind burst activity associated with the CCKWs. We also find that the discrete precipitation elements (CCs) are embedded in continuous tracks of positive moisture anomalies, which are parallel to the Lagrangian trajectories themselves. A conceptual model of the nonlinear SCC–CC interaction is presented.

Effects of Tropical Cyclones on ENSO

AbstractNumerous studies have investigated the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in modulating the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western Pacific on interannual time scales, but the effects of TCs on ENSO are less discussed. Some studies have found that TCs sharply increase surface westerly anomalies over the equatorial western–central Pacific and maintain them there for a few days. Given the strong influence of equatorial surface westerly wind bursts on ENSO, as confirmed by much recent literature, the effects of TCs on ENSO may be much greater than previously expected. Using recently released observations and reanalysis datasets, it is found that the majority of near-equatorial TCs (simply TCs hereafter) are associated with strong westerly anomalies at the equator, and the number and longitude of TCs are significantly correlated with ENSO strength. When TC-related wind stresses are added into an intermediate coupled model, the simulated ENSO becomes more irregular, and both ENSO magnitude and skewness approach those of observations, as compared with simulations without TCs. Adding TCs into the model system does not break the linkage between the heat content anomaly and subsequent ENSO event in the model, which manifest the classic recharge–discharge ENSO dynamics. However, the influence of TCs on ENSO is so strong that ENSO magnitude and sometimes its final state—that is, either El Niño or La Niña—largely depend on the number and timing of TCs during the event year. Our findings suggest that TCs play a prominent role in ENSO dynamics, and their effects must be considered in ENSO forecast models.