Westerly Quasi-biennial Oscillation Research Articles

Role of QBO and MJO in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: A Case Study

The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the dynamics of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) observed in the winters of 2018, 2019, and 2021 is investigated. Using data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, we analyze the daily mean variability of critical atmospheric parameters at the 10 hPa level, including zonal mean polar cap temperature, zonal mean zonal wind, and the amplitudes of planetary waves 1 and 2. The results reveal dramatic increases in polar cap temperature and significant wind reversals during the SSW events, particularly in 2018. The analysis of planetary wave (PW) amplitudes demonstrates intensified wave activity coinciding with the onset of SSWs, underscoring the pivotal role of PWs in these stratospheric disruptions. Further examination of outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) anomalies highlights the influence of QBO phases on tropical convection patterns. During westerly QBO (w-QBO) phases, enhanced convective activity is observed in the western Pacific, whereas the easterly QBO (e-QBO) phase shifts convection patterns to the maritime continent and central Pacific. This modulation by QBO phases influences the MJO’s role during SSWs, affecting tropical and extra-tropical weather patterns. The day-altitude variability of upward heat flux reveals distinct spatiotemporal patterns, with pronounced warming in the polar regions and mixed heat flux patterns in low latitudes. The differences observed between the SSWs of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 are likely related to the varying QBO phases, emphasizing the complexity of heat flux dynamics during these events. The northern annular mode (NAM) index analysis shows varied responses to SSWs, with stronger negative anomalies observed during the e-QBO phase compared to the w-QBO phases. This variability highlights the significant role of the QBO in shaping the stratospheric and tropospheric responses to SSWs, impacting surface weather patterns and the persistence of stratospheric anomalies. Overall, the study demonstrates the intricate interactions between stratospheric dynamics, QBO, and MJO during major SSW events, providing insights into the broader implications of these atmospheric phenomena on global weather patterns.

Variations of Kelvin Waves around the Tropical Tropopause Inversion Layer from GNSS RO Measurements

Abstract In the present study, the tropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL) Kelvin waves are extracted from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature data of multiple missions from January 2007 to December 2020. We focus on the variations of TIL Kelvin waves in two longitude regions, the Maritime Continent (MC; 90°–150°E) and the Pacific Ocean (PO; 170°–230°E). The results show that over both regions, ENSO leads to the opposite variations of TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitude during different ENSO phases. Specifically, during La Niña, the strong (weak) deep convection over MC (PO) leads to strengthened (weakened) static stability. With enhanced easterly (westerly) winds and strengthened (weakened) static stability, the TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes are stronger (weaker) over MC (PO). The opposite phenomenon occurs during El Niño. The zonal-mean zonal winds affect TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes by two mechanisms. First, the prevalence of easterlies (westerlies) in the upper troposphere affects the upward propagation of Kelvin waves, resulting in stronger (weaker) TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes over MC (PO). Second, the TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitude peaks about 2 months before the zero-wind line of the descending westerly QBO phase occurs, due to dissipation on the critical line. Additionally, the rapid increase of zonal-mean static stability significantly affects the annual variation of TIL Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes. They both reach maxima during DJF and minima during JJA, which should be related to the annual cycles of temperature and ozone mixing ratio in the TIL. Significance Statement Recent studies indicate that the Kelvin wave temperature amplitudes in the tropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL) exhibit distinct characteristics compared with those in other height levels, while the modulation mechanisms of the TIL Kelvin waves need further investigation. The present study aims to study the differences in the variabilities and the modulation factors of TIL Kelvin waves over two longitude regions. Our findings suggest that the different responses of background conditions during ENSO phases influence the spatiotemporal distribution of the TIL Kelvin waves. Besides, the zonal winds and the static stability significantly affect the temporal variations of TIL Kelvin waves. Our work fills the research gap of TIL Kelvin waves and contributes to understanding the dynamics of tropical tropopause variations.

QBO modulation of MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific: impact of preceding MJO phases

This study examines the influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections in the North Pacific using ERA5 data. It is found that the Rossby wave trains induced by MJO phase 6–7 exhibit greater strength and robustness during the westerly QBO winter (WQBO) than during the easterly QBO winter (EQBO), although the MJO itself is weaker during the former. This counter-intuitive dependency of MJO teleconnections on the QBO is attributed to the preexisting MJO teleconnections prior to the MJO phase 6–7. The MJO phase 6–7 is more frequently preceded by stronger MJO phase 3–4 during the EQBO than during the WQBO. The preceding MJO phase 3–4 teleconnections, which have opposed signs to the MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections, result in a considerable attenuation of the MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections by destructive interference. This result is supported by linear model experiments. The subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models also indicate improved prediction skills of MJO phase 6–7 teleconnections during the WQBO compared to the EQBO. These results suggest that enhanced MJO activities during the EQBO do not necessarily result in stronger and more robust MJO teleconnections in the North Pacific.

Effect of quasi‐biennial oscillation on the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon

AbstractThe interannual relationship between the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon intensity (SCSSMI) is investigated using the ERA5 data set in the period of 1953–2020. The QBO–SCSSMI connection is weak in El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related summer, but significant in neutral ENSO summer. In neutral ENSO summer, there is significant positive correlation between QBO and SCSSMI, that is, the SCSSMI is enhanced in the QBO westerly phase, while it is weakened in the QBO easterly phase with larger amplitude of the SCSSMI anomaly. QBO may modulate the SCSSMI in three possible ways. The QBO‐related temperature anomalies downward to the lower stratosphere directly affect the SCS monsoon convection by modulating the upper‐tropospheric stability and tropopause height over the SCS region. Moreover, the QBO‐related anomalous zonal wind downward to the lower stratosphere may regulate cross‐tropopause vertical wind shear and then modulate the convection development. Besides, the QBO‐related zonal wind and temperature signals propagating downward into the upper troposphere can affect the horizontal divergence by influencing the vertical vorticity and the geopotential via thermal forcing. Through those three processes, QBO directly affects the deep convection activities and then modulates the SCSSMI via internal dynamic adjustment. In the southern SCS, cross‐tropopause vertical wind shear makes a main contribution to deep convections, while upper‐tropospheric static stability makes a major contribution to deep convection in the northern SCS. The conclusions are also generally verified by the CMIP6 model simulation.

Modulation of the intraseasonal variability in early summer precipitation in eastern China by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract. Using the reanalysis and multiple observations, the possible impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) on early summer (June–July) rainfall in eastern China and its modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are examined. The composite results show that the suppressed (enhanced) convection anomalies for MJO phases 8–1 (4–5) are more concentrated over the maritime continent and the western Pacific during easterly QBO (EQBO). As a consequence, more significant wet (dry) anomalies develop in South (eastern) China during MJO phases 8–1 (4–5) configured with easterly (westerly) QBO. The enhancement and expansion of the anomalous tropical convection band do not necessarily correspond to enhancement of the extratropical circulation response to MJO phases 8–1 (4–5) configured with westerly (easterly) QBO. The anomalous high (low) over the maritime continent and western Pacific associated with MJO phases 8–1 (4–5) is intensified (deepened) during easterly (westerly) QBO, leading to large southwesterly (northeasterly) anomalies in South China and the coasts, carrying abundant (sparse) moisture. Two anomalous meridional circulation cells are observed for MJO phases 8–1 in the East Asia sector, with downwelling anomalies around 5–20∘ N, upwelling anomalies around 20–30∘ N, and another downwelling branch northward of 30∘ N, which are enhanced during easterly QBO. The anomalous meridional circulation cells are reversed for MJO phases 4–5, which are stronger during westerly QBO with the anomalous downwelling and dry anomalies covering eastern China. The combined impact of MJO phases 8–1 and easterly QBO on the early summer rainfall is noticeable in 1996, 2016, and 2020. The enormous rainfall amount appeared along the Yangtze River in 1996, 2016, and 2020 due to the extended period of MJO phases 8–1 under the background of the easterly QBO.

The QBO–MJO Connection: A Possible Role for the SST and ENSO

Abstract We examine the hypothesis that the observed connection between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the strength of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST)—for example, by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A composite analysis shows that, globally, La Niña SSTs are remarkably similar to those that occur during the easterly phase of the QBO. A maximum covariance analysis suggests that MJO power and SST are strongly linked on both the ENSO time scale and the QBO time scale. We analyze simulations with a modified configuration of version 2 of the Community Earth System Model, with a high top and fine vertical resolution. The model is able to simulate ENSO, the QBO, and the MJO. The ocean-coupled version of the model simulates the QBO, ENSO, and MJO, but does not simulate the observed QBO–MJO connection. When driven with prescribed observed SST anomalies based on composites for QBO east and QBO west (QBOE and QBOW), however, the same atmospheric model produces a modest enhancement of MJO power during QBOE relative to QBOW, as observed. We explore the possibility that the SST anomalies are forced by the QBO itself. Indeed, composite Hovmöller diagrams based on observations show the propagation of QBO zonal wind anomalies all the way from the upper stratosphere to the surface. Also, subsurface ocean temperature composites reveal a similarity between the western Pacific and Indian Ocean subsurface signal between La Niña and QBOE.

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

AbstractThe Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi‐biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long‐term changes in the QBO‐TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP‐historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP‐historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled‐historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO‐TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

QBO deepens MJO convection

The underlying mechanism that couples the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has remained elusive, challenging our understanding of both phenomena. A popular hypothesis about the QBO-MJO connection is that the vertical extent of MJO convection is strongly modulated by the QBO. However, this hypothesis has not been verified observationally. Here we show that the cloud-top pressure and brightness temperature of deep convection and anvil clouds are systematically lower in the easterly QBO (EQBO) winters than in the westerly QBO (WQBO) winters, indicating that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within MJO envelopes is facilitated by the EQBO mean state. Moreover, the deeper clouds during EQBO winters are more effective at reducing longwave radiation escaping to space and thereby enhancing longwave cloud-radiative feedback within MJO envelopes. Our results provide robust observational evidence of the enhanced MJO activity during EQBO winters by mean state changes induced by the QBO.

Evaluation of Processes Related to Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in GEFSv12 Subseasonal Hindcasts

Abstract The representation of the stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes is evaluated in the subseasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), hindcasts. The GEFSv12 hindcasts develop systematic stratospheric biases with increasing lead time, including a too strong boreal wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. In the tropical stratosphere, the GEFSv12 winds and temperatures associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) tend to decay with lead time such that they underestimate the observed amplitudes; consistently, the QBO-associated mean meridional circulation is too weak. The hindcasts predict extreme polar vortex events (including sudden stratospheric warmings and vortex intensifications) about 13–14 days in advance, and extreme lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux events about 6–10 days in advance. However, GEFSv12’s ability to predict these events is likely affected by its zonal-mean circulation biases, which increases the rates of false alarms and missed detections. Nevertheless, GEFSv12 shows stratosphere–troposphere coupling relationships that agree well with reanalysis and other subseasonal forecast systems. For instance, GEFSv12 reproduces reanalysis relationships between polar vortex strength and the Northern Annular Mode in the troposphere. It also exhibits enhanced weeks 3–5 prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation index when initialized during strong and weak polar vortex states compared to neutral states. Furthermore, GEFSv12 shows significant differences in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitudes and enhanced MJO predictive skill in week 4 during easterly versus westerly QBO phases, though these results are sensitive to the level used to define the QBO. Our results provide a baseline from which future GEFS updates may be measured.

Quasi-biennial modulation of total ozone distribution from equator to polar regions based on observations

The modulation of total ozone (TOZ) by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) not only at the equator, but also at subtropics, middle and high latitudes has long been known. As well, a large number of studies have shown seasonal synchronization and interhemispheric asymmetry of QBO effects in the TOZ in extratropical regions. However, the proposed mechanisms of seasonality and asymmetry as a consequence of the interaction of the quasi-biennial and annual cycles are not well understood. A great problem in comparing model simulations with observations and, hence, in verifying theoretical assumptions about the mechanism of extratropical ozone QBO, is the continually changing phase relationship between the annual and quasi-biennial cycles. This issue is exacerbated by the fact that, as is commonly believed, the wind QBO period is not constant, but varies irregularly from one cycle to another. In this study the influence of the QBO of equatorial stratospheric wind on the global distribution of the TOZ has been analyzed using the SBUV Merged Ozone Data Set (MOD). The investigation of the QBO effects in the TOZ in the subtropics, middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres is based on accounting for the seasonal regularities of the wind QBO, which leads to a limited number of only certain combinations of the quasi-biennial and annual cycles that can be realized. The smaller variability serves to clarify the nature of changes in extratropical ozone. A detailed analysis of the TOZ data for 1970–2021 showed that the interannual TOZ variability at subtropics, middle and high latitudes depends on the alternation of wind QBO cycles of different scenarios. The key moments of the TOZ variations are clearly associated with certain points in time during the downward propagation of the easterly and westerly QBO wind regimes and the seasonally dependent QBO circulation produced by them. These results contradict the general view that it is difficult to isolate the effect of QBO on the TOZ in extratropics because of the irregularly varying QBO period, and can be used in comparing simulated and observed extratropical ozone QBO, as well as in long-term forecast of variations in the TOZ distribution.

Captured QBO‐MJO Connection in a Subseasonal Prediction System

AbstractThe quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) impacts the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity with a stronger MJO in QBO easterly (QBOE) than QBO westerly (QBOW) winters. However, this relationship is poorly represented in the current generation climate models. For the first time, this paper applies a stratospheric zonal‐mean nudging in a subseasonal prediction system to capture it. Two strong MJO cases in a QBO‐neutral winter are investigated. The QBO temperature and zonal wind anomalies are added separately as well as together to the stratosphere using nudging in MJO case hindcast. Only by nudging the QBO temperature anomalies while leaving the zonal wind free, can the prediction system capture the observed QBO‐MJO connection. The tropopause instability is found positively correlated to the MJO amplitude, but it cannot fully explain the captured connection. The free‐evolving zonal wind anomalies in the stratosphere due to the nudged QBO temperature are crucial for the captured connection.

Development of a Statistical Subseasonal Forecast Tool to Predict California Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation Based on MJO and QBO Activity

AbstractThis paper examines the empirical relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and atmospheric river (AR) activity and precipitation in California on subseasonal time scales. We introduce an experimental forecast tool that uses observed anomaly patterns during a 38 yr period to predict the probability of above‐ and below‐normal AR activity and precipitation at lead times of 1–6 weeks based on the phase and amplitude of the MJO and QBO. The hindcast prediction skill of probabilistic AR activity and precipitation forecasts is evaluated for Northern, Central, and Southern California, as well as two sets of smaller geographical domains. These smaller domains are more relevant for water resource management and allow us to investigate the sensitivity of prediction skill to domain size. Consistent with previous studies, our results demonstrate that subseasonal AR activity and precipitation in California are strongly modulated by the MJO and QBO. The anomaly patterns of AR activity and precipitation vary considerably throughout the cool season, with a tendency toward below‐normal AR activity and precipitation during easterly QBO and above‐normal AR activity and precipitation during westerly QBO in JFM. The opposite patterns are generally observed in OND, but the anomaly signals are weaker and less coherent for AR activity. Certain combinations of MJO phase, QBO phase, lag time, and season yield notably higher skill scores, reinforcing the notion of “windows of opportunity” for skillful subseasonal‐to‐seasonal predictions. In California, these forecasts of opportunity are predominantly associated with easterly QBO in JFM and FMA.

Numerical simulation of stratospheric QBO impact on the planetary waves up to the thermosphere

With the help of numerical simulation, a detailed analysis of the dynamical effect of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial zonal wind on the planetary waves (PWs) up to thermospheric heights is carried out for the first time. The 3-dimensional nonlinear mechanistic model of middle and upper atmosphere (MUAM) is used, which is capable of simulating the general atmospheric circulation from the surface up to 300–400 km altitude. The amplitudes of stationary and westward travelling PWs with periods from 4 to 10 days are calculated based on ensembles of model simulations for conditions corresponding to the easterly and westerly QBO phases. Fluxes of wave activity and refractive indices of the atmosphere are calculated to analyze the detailed behavior of the PWs. The important result to emerge is that the stratospheric QBO causes statistically significant changes in the amplitudes of individual wave components up to 25% in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere and 10% changes above 200 km. This change in wave structures should be especially noticeable in the atmosphere during periods of low solar activity, when the direct contribution of solar activity fluctuations is minimized. Propagating from the troposphere to the upper atmosphere, PWs contribute to the propagation of the QBO signal not only from the equatorial region to extratropical latitudes, but also from the stratosphere to the thermosphere. The need for a detailed analysis of large-scale wave disturbances in the upper atmosphere and their relationship with the underlying layers is due, in particular, to their significant impact on satellite navigation and communication systems, which is caused by amplitude and phase fluctuations of the radio signal.

Modulation by the QBO of the Relationship between the NAO and Northeast China Temperature in Late Winter

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future.

Impacts of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation on the tropospheric circulation and climate in the Northeast Asia–North Pacific region in early summer

Previous studies have indicated that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has a global impact on winter weather, but relatively less attention has been paid to its effect in summer. Using ERA5 data, this study reports that the QBO has a significant impact on the tropospheric circulation and surface air temperature (SAT) in the extratropics in Northeast Asia and the North Pacific in early summer. Specifically, a QBO-induced mean meridional circulation prevails from Northeast Asia to the North Pacific in the westerly QBO years, exhibiting westerly anomalies in 20°–35°N and easterly anomalies in 35°–65°N from the lower stratosphere to troposphere. This meridional pattern of zonal wind anomalies can excite positive vorticity and thus lead to anomalous low pressure and cyclonic circulation from Northeast Asia to the North Pacific, which in turn cause northerly wind anomalies and decreased SAT in Northeast Asia in June. Conversely, in the easterly QBO years, the QBO-related circulation and SAT anomalies are generally in an opposite polarity to those in the westerly QBO years. These findings provide new evidence of the impact of the QBO on the extratropical climate, and may benefit the prediction of SAT in Northeast Asia in early summer.摘要本文研究了平流层准两年振荡 (QBO) 对东北亚-北太平洋地区初夏对流层环流和地表气温的影响. 在QBO西风位相年, 东北亚至北太平洋地区存在一支由QBO引发的平均经向环流异常, 该经向环流异常可在东北亚至北太平洋地区激发正涡度, 并形成异常气旋式环流. 气旋左侧出现的异常偏北风导致6月东北亚地表气温下降. QBO东风位相年的结果与西风位相年大致相反. 这些结果为QBO对热带外地区天气,气候的影响提供了新的证据, 并为东北亚初夏地表气温的预测提供了新的线索.

Zonally asymmetric influences of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), as the dominant mode in the equatorial stratosphere, modulates the dynamical circulation and the distribution of trace gases in the stratosphere. While the zonal mean QBO signals in stratospheric ozone have been relatively well documented, the zonal (longitudinal) differences in the QBO ozone signals have been less studied. Using satellite-based total column ozone (TCO) data from 1979 to 2020, zonal mean ozone data from 1984 to 2020, three-dimensional (3-D) ozone data from 2002 to 2020, and ERA5 reanalysis and model simulations from 1979 to 2020, we demonstrate that the influences of the QBO (using a QBO index at 20 hPa) on stratospheric ozone are zonally asymmetric. The global distribution of stratospheric ozone varies significantly during different QBO phases. During QBO westerly (QBOW) phases, the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high in the tropics, while in the subtropics they are anomalously low over most of the areas, especially during the winter–spring of the respective hemisphere. This confirms the results from previous studies. In the polar region, the TCO and stratospheric ozone (50–10 hPa) anomalies are seasonally dependent and zonally asymmetric. During boreal winter (December–February, DJF), positive anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are evident during QBOW over the regions from North America to the North Atlantic (120∘ W–30∘ E), while significant negative anomalies exist over other longitudes in the Arctic. In boreal autumn (September–November, SON), the TCO and stratospheric ozone are anomalously high from Greenland to Eurasia (60∘ W–120∘ E) but anomalously low in other regions over the Arctic. Weak positive TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies exist over the South America sector (90∘ W–30∘ E) of the Antarctic, while negative anomalies of the TCO and stratospheric ozone are seen in other longitudes. The consistent features of TCO and stratospheric ozone anomalies indicate that the QBO signals in TCO are mainly determined by the stratospheric ozone variations. Analysis of meteorological conditions indicates that the QBO ozone perturbations are mainly caused by dynamical transport and also influenced by chemical reactions associated with the corresponding temperature changes. QBO affects the geopotential height and the polar vortex and subsequently the transport of ozone-rich air from lower latitudes to the polar region, which therefore influences the ozone concentrations over the polar region. The geopotential height anomalies associated with QBO (QBOW–QBOE) are zonally asymmetric with clear wave number 1 features, which indicates that QBO influences the polar vortex and stratospheric ozone mainly by modifying the wave number 1 activities.

Differences in Satellite‐Based Latent Heating Profiles Between the 2015/2016 Disruption and Westerly Phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

AbstractLatent heating (LH) profiles from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) were employed to examine the LH distribution during the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption in the 2015/2016 Northern Hemispheric (NH) winter. We used the LH anomalies from the observation era climatology to compensate for the discontinuity between the TRMM and GPM LH. The difference in the LH anomalies (LHd) between the 2015/2016 winter and the typical winter coinciding with the westerly QBO phase revealed that deeper convective systems in the 2015/2016 winter shifted to the equator, releasing more latent heat relative to the convective systems in the winters coinciding with the westerly QBO phase. Comparison of the LHds calculated for each winter of 1998–2019 shows that the changes in the convective systems in the 2015/2016 winter were statistically exceptional among the changes in other winters. Inside the convective systems, stronger latent heat release and more frequent occurrences of deep convective and deep‐stratiform rain cells made up the total LHd during the 2015/2016 winter. Specifically, convective rain cells mainly derived the LHd of the convective systems in the 2015/2016 winter, except in February 2016. The results suggest that the LH increase from the typical winter with the westerly QBO phase may be considered an unusual equatorial wave source during the 2015/2016 QBO disruption. The signatures of the LHd profiles in the 10°S–10°N zonal band are sourced from the abnormal convective systems that were shifted from the western Pacific to the central‐to‐eastern Pacific.

The Roles of Westward-Propagating Waves and the QBO in Limiting MJO Propagation

Abstract A recent study categorized the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter season into four types called stand, jump, slow, and fast MJO. This study focuses on the stand and jump MJO. Based on whether their convection penetrates the Maritime Continent (MC), stand and jump MJOs are seen as non-penetrating (NP) MJOs, while the other two are seen as eastward-penetrating (EP) MJOs. Results reveal the relative roles of the westward-propagating wave (WPW), as well as the QBO and ENSO, in limiting MJO propagation. Lack of the premoistening over the southern sea surface of the MC stops NP MJO from penetrating the MC. The active convection of the WPWs hinders the descending branch of the NP MJO circulation and therefore leads to the insufficient meridional advective moistening over the southern sea surface of the MC. The independent convection over the Pacific for jump MJOs is influenced by a combined effect of the QBO and ENSO. The tropopause instability induced by the MJO is found to significantly decouple from its convection over the Pacific in westerly QBO (QBOW) winters more than in easterly QBO (QBOE) winters. For jump MJOs, the independent convection over the central Pacific comes from local WPWs whose amplification and further development into deep convection are correlated to jump the MJOs’ decoupled tropopause instability. For stand MJOs, however, the seasonal-mean La Niña–like cool SST anomalies weaken the WPW activity over the central Pacific and confine WPWs within the western Pacific. Therefore, the decoupled tropopause instability of stand MJOs is out phase of WPWs and fails to induce an independent convection over the central Pacific.

QBO Wind Influence on MJO-Induced Temperature Anomalies in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in an Idealized Model

Abstract The dynamical mechanism by which the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) might influence the temperature anomaly, associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), in the equatorial upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is examined by conducting a series of initial-value experiments using a dry primitive equation model. The observed temperature response to the MJO convection becomes colder and more in phase with the convection during easterly QBO (EQBO) than westerly QBO (WQBO) phases. This QBO-dependent MJO temperature anomaly in the UTLS is qualitatively reproduced by model experiments in which EQBO or WQBO background state is artificially imposed above 250 hPa while leaving the troposphere unaltered. As in the observations, the localized cold anomaly in the UTLS becomes strengthened and steepened with EQBO-like background state than WQBO-like one. It turns out that the QBO zonal wind, instead of temperature, plays a major role in determining the localized UTLS temperature anomaly by modulating wave energy dispersion.

Long‐Term Variation of Lunar Semidiurnal Tides in the MLT Region Revealed by a Meteor Radar Chain

AbstractWe present a study on the long‐term variation of lunar semidiurnal (LSD) tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The study is based on a meteor radar chain along ∼120°E meridian, which consists of five stations located at Mohe (MH, 53.5°N, 122.3°E), Beijing (BJ, 40.3°N, 116.2°E), Wuhan (WH, 30.5°N, 114.6°E), Sanya (SY, 18.3°N, 109.6°E), and Ledong (LD, 18.4°N, 109.0°E), respectively. Using the Lomb‐Scargle spectral analysis and least squares fitting method, strong quarter‐annual oscillations in the LSD are found at the three midlatitude stations and their magnitudes are comparable. The LSD magnitudes exhibit clear seasonal and latitudinal differences. The monthly mean magnitudes of LSD reach the maximum in January at all five stations but in other seasons they behave differently at different stations. Besides, the effects of polar vortex weakening (PVW) and quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) phases on the LSD are discussed. Based on the 12 PVW events, our study observes that the enhancement of the LSD is not always related to the commencements of PVW events. The enhancements of the LSD during the easterly QBO phase are generally stronger than those enhancements during the westerly QBO phase in the MLT region. The easterly QBO phase could modulate the mesospheric zonal mean zonal winds at low latitudes during the PVWs, which is in favor of amplifying the LSD. Our results suggest that the QBO phase is an important factor in enhancing the LSD in the MLT region during PVW events.