West Pacific Warm Pool Research Articles

On Relationships between Nonrecurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and the East Asian Subtropical Jet

Abstract A 200-hPa zonal momentum budget is performed to examine the role that western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) play in helping to organize intraseasonal extratropical circulation anomalies that occur with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Zonal wind is linearly decomposed into components that occur on MJO time scales (i.e., 20–100-day periods), as well as those that occur with lower and higher frequency. Dates during Northern Hemisphere fall that feature nonrecurving TCs within a search radius centered on a South China Sea grid point when the MJO is convectively active over the Maritime Continent and west Pacific warm pool are used to generate composites of relevant budget terms. These composites are then compared to others that are based on the full list of dates that feature a convectively active MJO in the same location during NH fall without regard for TC presence. Composite results highlight the primary momentum sources that guide the evolution of the NH extratropical zonal wind and associated mass field in each event set. TCs help to accelerate the East Asian subtropical jet that evolves with the MJO by modulating the high-frequency subtropical circulation over Southeast Asia. The phasing of this circulation with its underlying MJO time-scale component enables it to transfer momentum to the emerging subtropical jet. This momentum is integrated into the more slowly evolving flow and carried forward by other processes, which leads to the development of a westerly momentum surge along the subtropical jet that spans the length of the North Pacific Ocean.

Global vegetation productivity responses to the West Pacific Warm Pool

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly influence atmospheric circulation and the Earth's climate, which in turn significantly affects vegetation productivity. Most of the previous studies on the subject have focused on links between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vegetation productivity, but few studies have addressed the effects of West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) on that although the early stages of the ENSO phenomenon may first develop there. In this paper, we use the mean SST values in the WPWP to construct a climate index, known as the WPWP index (WPI), and study the impacts of the WPWP on global vegetation productivity. We provide evidence for a robust link among the alternating warm and cool WPI pattern, terrestrial vegetation productivity and carbon balance. The analysis is based on both satellite observations and model simulations. The results of this study show that the warm and cool WPWP phases have inverse effects on land surface temperature and precipitation. A warm (cool) WPWP is associated with a warmer (cooler) climate on global land surfaces as well as a drier (wetter) climate in southern hemisphere, and hence enhances (suppresses) vegetation productivity in the latitudes of approximately 10–70°N and suppresses (enhances) vegetation growth in the latitudes of approximately 10–30°S. The underlying mechanism is also discussed. The WPI serves as a meaningful climate index for studying the ocean-vegetation teleconnections.

The amplifying effect of Indonesian Throughflow heat transport on Late Pliocene Southern Hemisphere climate cooling

An unusually short glaciation interrupted the warm Pliocene around 3.3 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2). Different hypotheses exist to explain why this glaciation event was so pronounced, and why the global climate system returned to warm Pliocene conditions relatively quickly afterwards. One of these proposed mechanisms is a reduced equator-to-pole heat transfer, in response to a tectonically reduced Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). The ITF is a critical part of the global thermohaline ocean circulation, transporting heat from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to the Indian Ocean. When ITF connectivity is reduced, the water and heat supply for the Leeuwin Current, flowing poleward along Australia's west coast, is also diminished. To assess the possible relationship between mid-Pliocene glaciations and latitudinal heat transport through the Indonesian Throughflow, we constructed a multi-proxy orbital-scale record for the 3.7–2.8 Ma interval from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1463, off northwest Australia. The comparison of the Site U1463 record with paleoclimate records from nearby Site 763 and West Pacific Warm Pool Site 806 allows for a detailed regional reconstruction of Pliocene paleoceanography and thus for testing the proposed hypothesis.An astronomically-paced decrease in potassium content characterizes the late Pliocene interval of U1463. This record documents the increasing aridity of northwest Australia, periodically alleviated by reinforced summer monsoon precipitation under summer insolation maxima. The δ18O record of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer correlates exceptionally well with the sea surface temperature (SST) record from Site 806 in the West Pacific Warm Pool, even during MIS M2. Hence, Site U1463 preserves an uninterrupted ITF signal even during Pliocene glaciations. However, the U1463 δ18OG.sacculifer record exhibits a 0.5‰ offset with the nearby Site 763A record around MIS M2. This implies that Site 763A, about 500 km west of U1463, more closely tracks Indian Ocean SST records across MIS M2. The U1463 data reveal that heat-transport through the Indonesian Throughflow did not shut down completely during MIS M2, but rather its intensity decreased prior to and during MIS M2, causing Site 763A to temporarily reflect an Indian Ocean, rather than an ITF signal. We conclude that ITF variability significantly influenced latitudinal heat transport by means of the Leeuwin Current and hence contributed to the relative intensity of MIS M2. We propose the ITF valve between the Pacific and Indian Ocean as a positive feedback mechanism, in which an initial sea level lowering reduces ITF heat transport, in turn amplifying global cooling by advancing the thermal isolation of Antarctica.

Revealing the vegetation, fire and human activities in the lowland of eastern Taiwan during Late Holocene

Late Holocene vegetation, climate and human impacts were investigated using palynologiacal and marco-charcoal data from lacustrine sediments from a lowland lake of eastern Taiwan. On the basis of sixteen 210Pb dates and six radiocarbon dates, a reliable stratigraphic chronology was established. The 2680 year records of vegetation history and fire frequency indicated five distinctive stages, reflecting the exhibits of climate changes and human activities. During 2680–2410 cal yr BP, the lake was shallow and the climate was relatively cool, according to the domination of wetland and upper montane forest pollen. The following period during 2410–1510 cal yr BP, the increase of low montane forest pollen and the overall high value of fire frequency indicated the warm and less humid climate. During 1510-560 cal yr BP, the low montane forest pollen remained high values, and the climate was warm and stable. During 560-130 cal BP, the low pollen concentration companying with high frequency of nearby taxa, Lagerstroemia inferred to increase in soil erosion. The period with intensive soil erosion can link to the occurrences of extremely precipitation. It may correlate to the frequent typhoons during the Little Ice Age, during which the reduction of the West Pacific Warm Pool and expansion of the Northwestern Pacific High enhanced westerly shift of typhoon track toward Taiwan and southern China. During last 130 cal yr BP, the strong impacts of human activities were indicated by the low arboreal pollen, high cultivated Poaceae, and more fire events. It is worth to note that the global temperate anomalies could be identified within this lowland lacustrine sediments, including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, based on the proxies of pollen-inferred temperature. Pollen signals including cultivated Poaceae pollen and pollen diversity index indicate significant human agriculture during the intervals of 2680–2410 cal yr BP, and during 1510 cal yr BP to modern time, which may be linked to the local environment changes, leading to the population variation in eastern lowland Taiwan.

Predictability of phases and magnitudes of natural decadal climate variability phenomena in CMIP5 experiments with the UKMO HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, NCAR-CCSM4, and MIROC5 global earth system models

Data from decadal hindcast experiments conducted under CMIP5 were used to assess the ability of CM2.1, HadCM3, MIROC5, and CCSM4 Earth System Models (ESMs) to hindcast sea-surface temperature (SST) indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient (TAG) variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) SST variability from 1961 to 2010. The ESMs were initialized at specific times with observed data to make 10- and 30-year hindcasts/forecasts. Deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates show predictability of detrended WPWP index to 5 years’ lead time and of non-detrended WPWP index to 10 years’ lead time. These estimates also show atypical skill dependence of PDO and TAG indices on lead times, with increasing skill in the middle to end of 10-year hindcasts. The skill of ESMs to hindcast an observed DCV index (signal skill) is surprisingly greater than the skill to hindcast their own DCV index (noise skill) at some lead times. All ESMs hindcast occurrence frequencies of positive and negative phases of the indices, and probabilities of same-phase transitions from one year to the next reasonably well. Four, major, low-latitude volcanic eruptions are associated with phase transitions of all observed and some of the ensemble-average hindcast indices. All ESMs’ WPWP index hindcasts respond correctly to all eruptions as do three observed PDO phase transitions. No one of the ESMs’ hindcasts of the TAG index responds correctly to these eruptions. Some of the ESMs hindcast correct phase transitions in the absence of eruptions also, implying that initializations with observed data are beneficial in predicting phase transitions. The skills of DCV indices’ phase prediction up to at least two years in advance can be used to inform societal impacts adaptation decisions in water resources management and agriculture. The Atlantic region’s responses in these ESMs appear to be fundamentally incorrect.

Coral‐Derived Western Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Last Millennium

AbstractReconstructions of ocean temperatures prior to the industrial era serve to constrain natural climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, yet relatively few such observations are available from the west Pacific Warm Pool. Here we present multiple coral‐based sea surface temperature reconstructions from Yongle Atoll, in the South China Sea over the last ~1,250 years (762–2013 Common Era [CE]). Reconstructed coral Sr/Ca‐sea surface temperatures indicate that the “Little Ice Age (1711–1817 CE)” period was ~0.7°C cooler than the “Medieval Climate Anomaly (913‐1132 CE)” and that late 20th century warming of the western Pacific is likely unprecedented over the past millennium. Our findings suggest that the Western Pacific Warm Pool may have expanded (contracted) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (Little Ice Age), leading to a strengthening (weakening) of the Asian summer monsoon, as recorded in Chinese stalagmites.

A 50-Year Sr/Ca Time Series from an Enclosed, Shallow-Water Guam Coral: In situ Monitoring and Extraction of a Temperature Trend, Annual Cycle, and ENSO and PDO Signals

Bell, T.; Lander, M.A.; Jenson, J.W.; Randall, R.H.; Partin, J.W., and Prouty, N.G., 2019. A 50-year Sr/Ca time series from an enclosed, shallow-water Guam coral: In situ monitoring and extraction of a temperature trend, annual cycle, and ENSO and PDO signals. Journal of Coastal Research, 35(2), 269–286. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Located on the northern edge of the West Pacific Warm Pool and having a developed economy and modern infrastructure, Guam is well positioned and equipped for obtaining natural records of the west Pacific maritime paleoclimate. This study was a proof of concept to explore whether useful climate proxy records might be obtained from coral at readily accessible, even if geochemically nonoptimal, coastal sites. A 50-year Sr/Ca record (1960–2010) was thus obtained from a shallow-water, near-shore Porites lutea colony at a recreational facility inside Guam's Apra Harbor and compared with local and regional meteorological records, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices. The accessibility of the site enabled documentation of relevant environmental variables for 16 months (September 2009–December 2010): seawater δ18O, pH, seawater cations, and nitrate. Time series of seawater δ18O, pH, and cations show evidence of freshwater input from direct rainfall and stream discharge into the harbor. An anomalously higher mean and variable concentrations of Ba suggest the presence of river-borne, fine-grained terrigenous sediment. Nevertheless, the Sr/Ca time series reproduces a long-term warming trend seen in historical records of local air temperature and regional sea-surface temperature (SST) and closely tracks the ENSO and PDO indices over the entire 50-year record. The consistency of the results with Guam's historical instrumental records, previous coral δ18O results from Guam obtained by others, and previous Sr/Ca proxy results for SST in similar environments elsewhere demonstrate that accessible near-shore sites—where environmental conditions can be monitored—can produce useful Sr/Ca records of local and regional climate phenomena.

Simulations of three natural decadal climate variability phenomena in CMIP5 experiments with the UKMO HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, NCAR-CCSM4, and MIROC5 global earth system models

The ability of four Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate major attributes of sea-surface temperature (SST) manifestations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient (TAG) variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) SST variability was assessed. Data from simulation experiments conducted under the CMIP5 with the CM2.1, HadCM3, MIROC5, and CCSM4 ESMs from 1861 to 2005 were used. A Multi-Model Ensemble was also formed by combining data from the four ESMs. Aerosol optical depths and solar radiation were specified in these experiments. The simulation of PDO spatial pattern, annual cycle, and preferred timescales is the closest to observed attributes in these ESMs. The simulated and observed TAG SST patterns are generally similar, but their average annual cycles are very different and simulated TAG variability does not have a preferred decadal timescale unlike observed variability. No one of the ESMs is able to simulate the WPWP SST pattern. Simulated and observed average annual cycles of the WPWP SST are similar, and the dominant timescale of WPWP variability is close to 8 years in all ESMs and observations. Simulation skills of the three phenomena fluctuate from decade to decade in all ESMs. Major volcanic eruptions substantially influence observed and simulated indices and simulation skills of the three phenomena. The mixing of net surface heat flux anomalies to 200 m depth in the tropical and mid-latitude Pacific, and the WPWP region causes a delayed and multiyear response of the PDO and WPWP indices to volcanic eruptions.

Southeastern marginal West Pacific Warm Pool sea-surface and thermocline dynamics during the Pleistocene (2.5–0.5 Ma)

The internal development of the tropical West Pacific Warm Pool and its interaction with high latitude ocean regions on geological timescales is only poorly constrained. Based on two newly recovered sediment cores from the southeastern margin of the West Pacific Warm Pool (northern and southern Manihiki Plateau), we provide new aspects on the dynamically interacting ocean circulation at surface, subsurface, thermocline, and deep thermocline levels during the Pleistocene (~2.5–0.5Ma). Notably, the variability of thermocline and deep thermocline (~150–400m water depth) foraminiferal Mg/Ca-based temperatures with up to ~6°C amplitude variations exceeds those at shallower depths (down to ~120m) with only ~2–3°C temperature variations. A major gradual reorganization of the West Pacific Warm Pool oceanography occurred during the transitional time period of ~1.7–1.35Ma. Prior to ~1.7Ma, pronounced meridional and latitudinal gradients in sea-surface to subsurface ocean properties point to the eastward displacement of the West Pacific Warm Pool boundaries, with the South Pacific Convergence Zone being shifted further northeastward across Manihiki Plateau. Simultaneously, the low amplitude variations of thermocline and deep thermocline temperatures refer to an overall deep and stable thermocline.The meridional and zonal gradients in sea-surface and subsurface ocean properties within the West Pacific Warm Pool reveal a pronounced change after 1.5Ma, leading to a more southward position of the warm South Pacific Convergence Zone between ~1.35–0.9Ma and ~0.75–0.5Ma. Synchronous to the changes in the upper ocean, the deeper water masses experienced high amplitude variations in temperature, most prominently since ~1.5Ma. This and the dynamically changing thermocline were most likely associated to the impact of southern-sourced mode waters, which might have developed coincidently with the emergence of the East Pacific Cold Tongue and high latitude sea-surface cooling.

High-Resolution Simulations of Decadal Climate Variability Impacts on Water Yield in the Missouri River Basin with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

ABSTRACT The Missouri River basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States and is one of the most important agricultural regions in the world. Three decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena—the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool SST variability (WPWP)—substantially influence hydrometeorology in the MRB. The authors report on a simulation study with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate impacts on water availability in response to realistic values of PDO, TAG, and WPWP indices in approximately 13 500 hydrologic unit areas covering the MRB. SWAT, driven by hydrometeorological anomalies associated with positive and negative phases of PDO and TAG, indicated major impacts on water yields and streamflows, as much as ±40% of the average in many locations. Impacts of the WPWP index were smaller. Consistent with observations during 1949–2010, SWAT showed water flow increases of as much as 80% of the average, causing very wet periods when the positive phase of the PDO and the negative phase of the TAG at extreme amplitudes were superposed. Water flows decreased by a similar amount, resulting in severe to extreme droughts when the negative phase of the PDO and the positive phase of the TAG at extreme amplitudes were superposed. Thus, the combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on water flows, droughts, and wet periods in the MRB can be dramatic, with important consequences for all water-consuming sectors as well as for feedbacks to the climate system.

Paired stable isotopologues in precipitation and vapor: A case study of the amount effect within western tropical Pacific storms

AbstractUnderstanding controls on the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and vapor in the West Pacific Warm Pool is vital for accurate representation of convective processes in models and correct interpretation of isotope‐based paleoclimate proxies, yet a lack of direct observational evidence precludes the utility of these isotopic tracers. Results from a measurement campaign at Manus Island, Papua New Guinea from 28 April to 8 May 2013 demonstrate variability in the stable isotopic composition (δD and δ18O) of precipitation and vapor in individual precipitation events and over a 10 day period. Isotope ratios in water vapor and precipitation progressively increased throughout the period of measurement, coincident with a transition from high to low regional convective activity. Vapor isotope ratios approached equilibrium with seawater during the quiescent period and likely reflected downwind advection of distilled vapor and re‐evaporation of rainfall during the period of regional convection. On a 5 min timescale across individual storms, isotope ratios in precipitation were strongly correlated with isotope ratios in surface vapor. However, individual precipitation isotope ratios were not strongly correlated with surface meteorological data, including precipitation rate, in all storms. Yet across all events, precipitation deuterium excess was negatively correlated with surface temperature, sea level pressure, and cloud base height and positively correlated with precipitation rate and relative humidity. Paired surface precipitation and vapor isotope ratios indicate condensation at boundary layer temperatures. The ratio of these paired values decreased with increasing precipitation rate during some precipitation events, suggesting rain re‐evaporation and precipitation in equilibrium with an isotopically distinct upper level moisture source. Results from the short campaign support the interpretation that isotope ratios in precipitation and vapor in the western tropical Pacific are indicators of regional convective intensity at the timescale of days to weeks. However, a nonstationary relationship between rain rate and stable isotope ratios in precipitation during individual convective events suggests that condensation, rain evaporation, moisture recycling, and regional moisture convergence do not always yield an amount effect relationship on intraevent timescales.

Ozonesonde profiles from the West Pacific Warm Pool: measurements and validation

Abstract. We present a series of ozonesonde profiles measured from Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, during February 2014, with new insights on the calibration of ozonesondes for measurements in the tropical troposphere. The experiment formed a part of a wider airborne campaign involving three aircraft based in Guam, to characterise the atmospheric composition above the tropical West Pacific in unprecedented detail. Thirty-nine ozonesondes were launched between 2 and 25 February of which 34 gave good ozone profiles. Particular attention was paid to evaluating the background current of the ozonesondes, as this can amount to half the measured signal in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). An unexpected contamination event affected the measurements and required a departure from standard operating procedures for the ozonesondes. The most significant departure was not exposing the sondes to ozone during preparation, which meant that the background current remained stable before launch. Comparison with aircraft measurements allows validation of the measured ozone profiles and confirms that for well-characterized sondes (background current ∼ 50 nA) a constant background current could be assumed throughout the profile, equal to the minimum value measured during preparation just before launch. From this set of 34 ozonesondes, the minimum reproducible ozone concentration measured in the TTL was 12–13 ppbv; no examples of ozone concentrations < 5 ppbv, as reported by other recent papers, were measured. The lowest ozone concentrations coincided with outflow from extensive deep convection to the east of Manus, consistent with uplift of ozone-poor air from the boundary layer. However, these minima were lower than the ozone concentration measured through most of the boundary layer, and were matched only by measurements at the surface in Manus.

Was the Extreme Storm Season in Winter 2013/14 Over the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom Triggered by Changes in the West Pacific Warm Pool?

Was the Extreme Storm Season in Winter 2013/14 Over the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom Triggered by Changes in the West Pacific Warm Pool?

Was the Extreme Storm Season in Winter 2013/14 Over the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom Triggered by Changes in the West Pacific Warm Pool?

Was the Extreme Storm Season in Winter 2013/14 Over the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom Triggered by Changes in the West Pacific Warm Pool?

An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the Ocean Reanalyses Inter-comparison Project (ORA-IP)

Many institutions worldwide have developed ocean reanalyses systems (ORAs) utilizing a variety of ocean models and assimilation techniques. However, the quality of salinity reanalyses arising from the various ORAs has not yet been comprehensively assessed. In this study, we assess the upper ocean salinity content (depth-averaged over 0–700 m) from 14 ORAs and 3 objective ocean analysis systems (OOAs) as part of the Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project. Our results show that the best agreement between estimates of salinity from different ORAs is obtained in the tropical Pacific, likely due to relatively abundant atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The largest disagreement in salinity reanalyses is in the Southern Ocean along the Antarctic circumpolar current as a consequence of the sparseness of both atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The West Pacific warm pool is the largest region where the signal to noise ratio of reanalysed salinity anomalies is >1. Therefore, the current salinity reanalyses in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be more reliable than those in the Southern Ocean and regions along the western boundary currents. Moreover, we found that the assimilation of salinity in ocean regions with relatively strong ocean fronts is still a common problem as seen in most ORAs. The impact of the Argo data on the salinity reanalyses is visible, especially within the upper 500 m, where the interannual variability is large. The increasing trend in global-averaged salinity anomalies can only be found within the top 0–300 m layer, but with quite large diversity among different ORAs. Beneath the 300 m depth, the global-averaged salinity anomalies from most ORAs switch their trends from a slightly growing trend before 2002 to a decreasing trend after 2002. The rapid switch in the trend is most likely an artefact of the dramatic change in the observing system due to the implementation of Argo.

Early interglacial carbonate-dilution events in the South China Sea: Implications for strengthened typhoon activities over subtropical East Asia

A compilation of many late Quaternary marine sediment records from the northern South China Sea (SCS) continental slope confirms 15–50% reductions in sedimentary calcium carbonate concentrations between 11.0 and 8.5 ka BP in the early Holocene. This low carbonate% event occurred at a time when the regional sea level rose from −50 m to −10 m, which drowned large areas of continental shelves especially those near and within the Taiwan Strait. This event is associated with a significant increase in bulk sedimentation rates on the upper continental slope and the relative abundance of fine-grained detritus. Sediment provenance analyses suggest a dominant terrigenous input from Taiwan and a minor contribution from Luzon during the low carbonate% event, similar to the background terrigenous deposition in other periods of the Holocene. Two comparable low carbonate% events, respectively from the beginning of marine isotope stages 5.5 and 7.3, have also been recognized, pointing to similar causal factors. While carbonate dissolution and carbonate accumulation rate should not have been responsible, increased terrigenous input and dilution is considered as the main cause for the recurrent low carbonate% events in early interglacials. We further hypothesize that, during early interglacials, fluvial sediment discharge from Taiwan and Luzon intensified due to stronger typhoon activities, and massive fine-grained sediments from these two end members may have been transported to the northern SCS continental slope via surface and deep ocean currents. The conjecture of strengthened typhoon activities over East Asia during the early Holocene is supported by high ocean heat contents in the West Pacific Warm Pool area with the prevailing La Niña-like conditions.

The global distribution of largest, deepest, and most intense precipitation systems

AbstractBy grouping the contiguous precipitating area detected by the precipitation radar on board the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) core satellite, snapshots of precipitation systems are summarized as precipitation features (PFs), and their properties are cataloged from 1 year GPM observations. These PFs are categorized by their area and depth and convective intensity based on the 20 and 40 dBZ radar echo tops, respectively. The largest PFs are found mainly over ocean at the mid‐high latitudes, especially over southern ocean. The deepest PFs are mainly over tropical land, the West Pacific Warm Pool, and the Great Plains of the United States and Argentina. The most convectively intense PFs are dominant over land regions, including midlatitude and high latitude. The zonal precipitation contribution from extremely large precipitation systems is greater in midlatitude and high latitude than in the tropics. These extreme precipitation systems are rare but contribute significantly to the global precipitation. It is important to include their impacts in global climate models to correctly describe the global water cycle.

Why does the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappear in some decades?

Lag correlations between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) in fall and Nino 3.4 SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific in the following fall are subjected to decadal variation, with positive correlations during some decades and negative correlations during others. Negative correlations are smaller and of shorter duration than positive correlations. Variations in lag correlations suggest that the use of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as a predictor of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a lead time of one year is not effective during some decades. In this study, lag correlations between IOD and ENSO anomalies were analyzed to investigate why the IOD-ENSO teleconnection disappears during decades with negative correlations. Anomalies induced by the IOD in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations are still present, but at a greater depth than in decades with positive correlations, resulting in a lack of response to oceanic channel dynamics in the cold tongue SSTA. Lag correlations between oceanic anomalies in the west Pacific warm pool in fall and the equatorial Pacific cold tongue with a one-year time lag are significantly positive during decades with negative correlations. These results suggest that oceanic channel dynamics are overwhelmed by ocean-atmosphere coupling over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during decades with negative correlations. Therefore, the Indonesian throughflow is not effective as a link between IOD signals and the equatorial Pacific ENSO.

Precipitation variability within the West Pacific Warm Pool over the past 120 ka: Evidence from the Davao Gulf, southern Philippines

AbstractProxy records of hydrologic variability in the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) have revealed wide‐scale changes in past convective activity in response to orbital and suborbital climate forcings. However, attributing proxy responses to regional changes in WPWP hydrology versus local variations in precipitation requires independent records linking the terrestrial and marine realms. We present high‐resolution stable isotope, UK′37sea surface temperature, X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning, and coccolithophore‐derived paleoproductivity records covering the past 120 ka from International Marine Global Change (IMAGES) Program Core MD06‐3075 (6°29′N, 125°50′E, water depth 1878 m), situated in the Davao Gulf on the southern side of Mindanao. XRF‐derived log(Fe/Ca) records provide a robust proxy for runoff‐driven sedimentary discharge from Mindanao, while past changes in local productivity are associated with variable freshwater runoff and stratification of the surface layer. Significant precessional‐scale variability in sedimentary discharge occurred during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5, with peaks in discharge contemporaneous with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation minima. We attribute these changes to the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the WPWP together with variability in the strength of the Walker circulation acting on precessional timescales. Between 60 and 15 ka sedimentary discharge at Mindanao was muted, displaying little orbital‐ or millennial‐scale variability, likely in response to weakened precessional insolation forcing and lower sea level driving increased subsidence of air masses over the exposed Sunda Shelf. These results highlight the high degree of local variability in the precipitation response to past climate changes in the WPWP.

Distribution and diversity of planktonic fungi in the West Pacific Warm Pool.

Fungi contribute substantially to biogeochemical cycles of terrestrial and marine habitats by decomposing matter and recycling nutrients. Yet, the diversity of their planktonic forms in the open ocean is poorly described. In this study, culture-independent and molecular approaches were applied to investigate fungal diversity and abundance derived from samples collected from a broad swath of the Pacific Warm Pool across major environmental gradients Our results revealed that planktonic fungi were molecularly diverse and their diversity patterns were related to major phytoplankton taxa and various nutrients including nitrate, nitrite, orthophosphate and silicic acid. Over 400 fungal phylotypes were recovered across this region and nearly half of them grouped into two major fungal lineages of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, whose abundance varied among stations. These results suggest that planktonic fungi are a diverse and integral component of the marine microbial community and should be included in future marine microbial ecosystem models.